The Cuban Defectors Thread

[Tangled Up in Plaid]

The Dodgers are getting something close to eleventy billion dollars in TV money. I think they can pretty much spend whatever the hell they want and not give a single [expletive].

[TruffleShuffle]

i highly doubt that.

[davell]

i highly doubt that.

The Dodgers TV deal alone pays them 230 mill or so a year. Thats not counting ANY other revenue streams they've got. They were making profits prior to the TV deal and the renovations they've been doing. I said when this group bought the team they'd have a 300 mill payroll within 5 years and I believe it now more than ever.

[Guest]

http://www.baseballamerica.com/majors/cuban-star-jose-abreu-leaves-cuba/

 

Ben Badler thinks it'll take Abreu till the offseason to be cleared to sign.

 

Much like they were with Cespedes, scouts are extremely familiar with Abreu, having followed him while he played for Cuba’s top national team at several international tournaments over the last few years. International scouts’ most recent look at Abreu came at the World Port Tournament in Rotterdam last month, although Abreu only played in the first two games of the tournament due to injury. Scouts saw more of Abreu in March at the World Baseball Classic, where he hit .360/.385/.760 with three home runs in 25 at-bats, numbers in line with his typical dominance during international play.

 

In the prime of his career, Abreu is certain to sign a major league contract, the only question is how high the dollars will get. While interest in Abreu will be strong among some teams, there’s expected to be a split camp, with some scouts not sold that his hitting will translate against major league pitching.

 

Abreu is an intelligent hitter without a lot of effort in in his swing and the power to hit 30-plus homers in a season. He has an unorthodox setup with a double toe tap in his stride, and some scouts consider his bat speed only fair, which they believe makes it hard for him to catch up to good velocity on the inner third of the plate.

 

At the WBC, Abreu showed he could handle curveballs in the strike zone but he was prone to chasing sliders off the plate, although that was a question mark on both Cespedes and Yasiel Puig when they arrived from Cuba as well. He’s limited athletically, but any team that signs Abreu will be banking on his bat and tremendous power profiling in the middle of the lineup.

[TruffleShuffle]

i highly doubt that.

The Dodgers TV deal alone pays them 230 mill or so a year. Thats not counting ANY other revenue streams they've got. They were making profits prior to the TV deal and the renovations they've been doing. I said when this group bought the team they'd have a 300 mill payroll within 5 years and I believe it now more than ever.

 

a payroll that's $80m above their current level is hardly the same thing as spending "whatever the hell they want and not giving a single [expletive]."

[RammyFanny]

Bowden overrates everyone but I guess this isn't technically from him:

Abreu is considered one of the best hitting prospects in the world, and last season he led Cuba's Serie Nacional in batting average and home runs. Although he will be limited to first base or designated hitter, his offensive skills will make him an All-Star. I spoke to a few execs and scouts who have seen him play, and here is how his tools grade out on the 20-80 scouting scale.

 

Scouting grades

Hit: 70

Power: 70

Glove: 50

Run: 40

Arm: 50

Because he's older than 23, Abreu will not be subject to MLB's spending restrictions for international free agents, and because of the success of Puig, Cespedes and Chapman, I expect him to get a deal somewhere in the range of $54 million over six years, which would exceed Puig’s seven-year, $42 million contract.

http://insider.espn.go.com/blog/the-gms-office/post?id=7439

 

Uh....yes please at that price.

[Little Slide Rooter]

Wonder if Rizzo could be the lead piece in a Stanton deal?

 

I was thinking that as well. If nothing else, the Marlins would have to love Rizzo's ridiculously team friendly contract. My thinking is that it takes Rizzo, one of Soler/Almora, and proabably another of our top 10-20 as well as low level or expendable AA-AAAA piece with us getting something else in return. Maybe Turner?

 

I do it without thinking twice. This gives us a potentially insane future of;

 

1B Abreu

2B Alcantara

SS Castro

3B Baez

LF Bryant

CF Almora (if Soler traded instead)

RF Stanton

C Castillo

 

Which could require multiple pants changes per game.

[Derwood]

again, why is this an entirely home grown team (outside of Stanton)? That's not how baseball works

[Guest]

again, why is this an entirely home grown team (outside of Stanton)? That's not how baseball works

 

And Abreu. If it makes you feel better, you can put someone else in place of Almora, because all he's doing otherwise is promoting two top prospects who are likely to be MLB ready at some point next year.

 

Also, the Cardinals and Reds both have homegrown position players at 6 of 8 spots and at least 3 of 5 rotation spots.

[Tangled Up in Plaid]

Uh....yes please at that price.

 

http://i.imgur.com/2lodoJI.jpg?1

[MSG T]

again, why is this an entirely home grown team (outside of Stanton)? That's not how baseball works

 

And Abreu. If it makes you feel better, you can put someone else in place of Almora, because all he's doing otherwise is promoting two top prospects who are likely to be MLB ready at some point next year.

 

Also, the Cardinals and Reds both have homegrown position players at 6 of 8 spots and at least 3 of 5 rotation spots.

 

 

Ellsbury? He'd be a fairly reasonable possibility.

 

 

And if that 6/$54 was even remotely close for Abreau, I don't think I'd have a problem with that. Figure out your contingencies while he's establishing residency, then start trying to work the best option if you get him. Go from there.

[KingCubsFan]

Bowden overrates everyone but I guess this isn't technically from him:

Abreu is considered one of the best hitting prospects in the world, and last season he led Cuba's Serie Nacional in batting average and home runs. Although he will be limited to first base or designated hitter, his offensive skills will make him an All-Star. I spoke to a few execs and scouts who have seen him play, and here is how his tools grade out on the 20-80 scouting scale.

 

Scouting grades

Hit: 70

Power: 70

Glove: 50

Run: 40

Arm: 50

Because he's older than 23, Abreu will not be subject to MLB's spending restrictions for international free agents, and because of the success of Puig, Cespedes and Chapman, I expect him to get a deal somewhere in the range of $54 million over six years, which would exceed Puig’s seven-year, $42 million contract.

http://insider.espn.go.com/blog/the-gms-office/post?id=7439

 

Uh....yes please at that price.

If people really think he has a 70 hit tool and 70 power, he's getting a lot more than $54 million. He's getting at least twice that. Luckily, it's Jim Bowden.

[sneakypower]

Bowden overrates everyone but I guess this isn't technically from him:

Abreu is considered one of the best hitting prospects in the world, and last season he led Cuba's Serie Nacional in batting average and home runs. Although he will be limited to first base or designated hitter, his offensive skills will make him an All-Star. I spoke to a few execs and scouts who have seen him play, and here is how his tools grade out on the 20-80 scouting scale.

 

Scouting grades

Hit: 70

Power: 70

Glove: 50

Run: 40

Arm: 50

Because he's older than 23, Abreu will not be subject to MLB's spending restrictions for international free agents, and because of the success of Puig, Cespedes and Chapman, I expect him to get a deal somewhere in the range of $54 million over six years, which would exceed Puig’s seven-year, $42 million contract.

http://insider.espn.go.com/blog/the-gms-office/post?id=7439

 

Uh....yes please at that price.

using FGs 20-80 Sabr Scale, that puts him in the neighborhood of:

 

.313/.375?/.555, +1.7 UZR, -3 BSR

 

which is a 4-win 1B; either the execs/scouts are being too kind with those grades, or bidding is going to greatly dwarf 6/54

[Guest]

That's the first mention I've seen of his hit tool being something close to 70 on the 20-80 scale. One of the longer articles about him used Ryan Howard as a comparison, which to me feels about right. Maybe something like .265/.350/.530 with negative defense and baserunning. Edwin Encarnacion isn't far off if you want an example from this year, that's a 3-4 win player depending on how the details shake out.

[Guest]

Yeah, that's a far more favorable assessment of his hit tool than I've seen elsewhere. I personally would defer to Ben Badler over Jim Bowden when it comes to IFA connections and scouting reports.

[SouthSideRyan]

Yeah, that's a far more favorable assessment of his hit tool than I've seen elsewhere. I personally would defer to Ben Badler over Jim Bowden when it comes to IFA connections and scouting reports.

 

Is there something else besides sweater vests you'd defer to Bowden on?

[Tangled Up in Plaid]

I would personally defer to Bozo the Clown over Jim Bowden's opinion on anything.

[imb]

Maybe something like .265/.350/.530 with negative defense and baserunning.

 

so ... rizzo without the defense

[Guest]

Yeah, that's a far more favorable assessment of his hit tool than I've seen elsewhere. I personally would defer to Ben Badler over Jim Bowden when it comes to IFA connections and scouting reports.

 

Is there something else besides sweater vests you'd defer to Bowden on?

 

Hahaha.

[Guest]

again, why is this an entirely home grown team (outside of Stanton)? That's not how baseball works

 

And Abreu. If it makes you feel better, you can put someone else in place of Almora, because all he's doing otherwise is promoting two top prospects who are likely to be MLB ready at some point next year.

 

Also, the Cardinals and Reds both have homegrown position players at 6 of 8 spots and at least 3 of 5 rotation spots.

 

You missed Bryant...but I sure as hell hope he is MLB ready at some point next year.

[Sammy Sofa]

Maybe something like .265/.350/.530 with negative defense and baserunning.

 

so ... rizzo without the defense

 

...is what that one article thinks he might be, yes.

[Guest]

i just don't see it happening. it's risky all around. you have to hope rizzo can play a decent OF or get something good for him through trade, and you have to hope that abreu is good enough enough to warrant doing that. that combined with the extra risk of giving big money to a guy who has never played in the majors makes me think he won't be a real target.

[Guest]

i just don't see it happening. it's risky all around. you have to hope rizzo can play a decent OF or get something good for him through trade, and you have to hope that abreu is good enough enough to warrant doing that. that combined with the extra risk of giving big money to a guy who has never played in the majors makes me think he won't be a real target.

 

yeah, and it can't be stressed enough that abreu likely needs to be good enough exclusively at the plate in order to warrant it, because he is likely to provide no to negative value defensively and on the basepaths. in other words, he has to be a REALLY [expletive] good hitter.

[Guest]

How would you rank these potential offseason targets, especially keeping in mind that in all likelihood, you can afford to add 2 of them at the most? When I say rank, I mean which should the Cubs prioritize, given the likely cost to acquire.

 

Abreu

Cano

Choo

Ellsbury

Tanaka

Given the likely price of each, I'd probably only go for Tanaka on this list.

 

Abreu: I'm not sure he's going to be better than Rizzo. Why move Rizzo and his friendly contract to replace him with someone who could very well be worse?

 

Cano: He's going to get a huge deal from the Yanks or Dodgers. No thanks.

 

Choo: He's 31 and already a disaster in the OF. As he ages a bit more, he may soon be completely useless out there. He really should sign with an AL team so that he can be Edgar Martinez 2.0.

 

Ellsbury: 1) Made of glass; 2) his value is built on his elite speed and very good defense; 3) Given #1, how long into his 30's can he maintain #2? If he would sign a short deal, then I'd be all for it. What are the odds he'd do a deal for 3-4 years, though?

 

Add in the fact that all of those guys will get QO's and cost the Cubs a second round pick. That's not a deciding factor by any means, but it is like tossing Underwood or Zastryzny into the deal. And that's assuming we don't climb out of the bottom 10 teams.

 

I definitely want Tanaka. It seems that MLB teams have had much more success in recent years of transitioning Japanese pitchers to the states. He's not Yu, but he's still very good.

 

To answer the question, I'd choose Ellsbury as a second piece, but only if the deal is right. He loses significant defensive value in the small CF in wrigley.

 

btw - I'm not a fan of the DH. However, if it is going to happen eventually anyway, this would be the offseason to hope it comes to the NL.

[Little Slide Rooter]

again, why is this an entirely home grown team (outside of Stanton)? That's not how baseball works

 

And Abreu. If it makes you feel better, you can put someone else in place of Almora, because all he's doing otherwise is promoting two top prospects who are likely to be MLB ready at some point next year.

 

Also, the Cardinals and Reds both have homegrown position players at 6 of 8 spots and at least 3 of 5 rotation spots.

 

Tampa Bay has done pretty well with an almost entirely home grown team. It could be argued that the art of a homegrown team is so rare is because until the past few years, the teams producing the stars were unable to hang onto them long term and the big money teams simply preferred going out and getting them via trade and FA rather than bother waiting to produce an entirely farm grown team.

 

Not to mention that assuming that we had that many home grown position players pan out, we could spend big on pitching.