2015+

[bearjuice]

The Chicago Cubs, worth $1 billion and Philadelphia Phillies, valued at $893 million, also cracked the top five as both teams should also get much richer local television deals soon. The Cubs pulled in less than $50 million last season from CSN Chicago and WGN. The team’s deal with regional sports network CSN Chicago, which is 20%-owned by the Cubs, runs through 2019. But in 2015 the team is poised to ink a much bigger deal with WGN.

http://www.forbes.com/mlb-valuations/list/

http://www.forbes.com/sites/mikeozanian/2013/03/27/baseball-team-valuations-2013-yankees-on-top-at-2-3-billion/

 

Based on the television deal, I believe that we'll have to wait 2-3 more years for a competitive team. I believe that Theo knows this full well, and a lot of the moves seem to be loading for that time frame such they 'peak' from 2016+. If it's been mentioned already, my apologies - but I found this interesting (albeit sobering for the next few years). Cheers.

[Guest]

i expect them to still be competetive before that time comes, and so should everybody.

[treebird]

i really hate reading seemingly in line with the negative people from early 2012. "and things don't go great and they say the window starts in 2014. then 2015. then 2016."

[ctcf]

Honestly for a while now I've kinda figured the window would really open in 2015. I expect next year to be a lot more tolerable, but 2015 just makes more sense with the way the big prospects are lined up right now.

[Guest]

Lock please. No good will come here.

[davell]

I think its pretty apparent 2015 is when the pocketbook opens up. I don't expect the playoffs in 2014 at this point, but I do expect competitiveness, maybe even buying at the deadline on longer term pieces. But it really looks like we are hamstrung financially to the point that the new TV deal is our only hope.

[Andy]

So by that time we'll have sucked for two seasons(if you don't count the mediocre 2009 team, which I don't) and punted three more. Awesome.

[neely crenshaw]

Don't know why this is viewed as bad or a surprise. I just don't see anyway you can honestly look at this team and see them contend soon- without some big signings. The only people who make this seem negative are ones who had a pie in the sky look at this team and thought they could contend.

Bottom line is to be a serious contender in 2014 we needed almost every turn to go our way and not many have.

Rizzo and Castro are not where we need them to be. Scheirholtz is a plus but we will soon need a center and left fielder. We will still need a bullpen, and when Garza goes we will be looking for a front end starter, and probably 1 other (hopefully Baker).

We could be as close as a true number 3 hitter, a starter and back end of the bullpen away, but that would include Castro, Rizzo, Castillo all taking steps forward and no one regressing.

It would be very helpful if Jackson, Bogusevic, and Vitters all came through but it doesn't look like it will be soon if ever(other than Bogusevic).

[manbearcub]

DUAL FRONTS

[Castros trade value]

So by that time we'll have sucked for two seasons(if you don't count the mediocre 2009 team, which I don't) and punted three more. Awesome.

 

So, basically, we stinks?

[SouthSideRyan]

I think its pretty apparent 2015 is when the pocketbook opens up.

 

How is this "pretty apparent?" After all we have renovations to pay for. But after the prospect haul we bring in from Baez and Soler we should be ready to bring in waves upon waves in 2019 right when the Comcast deal ends.

 

And we're hamstringing ourselves financially, this didn't need to happen. Tom Ricketts decided he wanted it to.

[Guest]

Apologies for not being able to string this together better than bullet points, I've been driving for 22 of the last 36 hours.

 

- With as significant as the renovations are and the potential TV deals are in terms of revenues and capital spending, I don't think we can definitively say anything about future spending while both are up in the air.

 

- Spending commensurate with the last few years is what I'm expecting for next year, and with minor exception, I don't think it's nearly the barrier to competitiveness that some are indicating. The Cubs success next year is pinned on Castro and Rizzo, with a nod to the rotation's continued health. They can make it a little easier to be competitive if those things only happen in degrees, but for the most part the biggest fulcrum to 2014 is those two guys.

 

- I think some might be surprised at how little the FO's behavior changes when they do have money to spend. I think it'll be more along the lines of just paying what it takes to extend guys like Samardzija and making sure they get the FA target(s) they really really believe in(e.g. Sanchez, Darvish*) rather than going on a blitz of FA signings.

[davell]

I think its pretty apparent 2015 is when the pocketbook opens up.

 

How is this "pretty apparent?" After all we have renovations to pay for. But after the prospect haul we bring in from Baez and Soler we should be ready to bring in waves upon waves in 2019 right when the Comcast deal ends.

 

And we're hamstringing ourselves financially, this didn't need to happen. Tom Ricketts decided he wanted it to.

I may have went a bit far there, but if a Japanese import or bigtime Cuban is available at that point, I'll feel much better about our chances at landing them then, than I do currently. Ricketts DID put himself in this position and until he DOES actually carry a large payroll after letting it drop ever sense taking ownership, you're right, I definitely used the wrong phrasing, at the least. I'll amend it to say thats when I suspect our payroll will begin to trend back upwards.

[davell]

I think its pretty apparent 2015 is when the pocketbook opens up.

 

How is this "pretty apparent?" After all we have renovations to pay for. But after the prospect haul we bring in from Baez and Soler we should be ready to bring in waves upon waves in 2019 right when the Comcast deal ends.

 

And we're hamstringing ourselves financially, this didn't need to happen. Tom Ricketts decided he wanted it to.

As for your last comment, what do you mean? By being naive and agreeing to this type of deal with Zell? Or do you mean something else?

[SouthSideRyan]

I think its pretty apparent 2015 is when the pocketbook opens up.

 

How is this "pretty apparent?" After all we have renovations to pay for. But after the prospect haul we bring in from Baez and Soler we should be ready to bring in waves upon waves in 2019 right when the Comcast deal ends.

 

And we're hamstringing ourselves financially, this didn't need to happen. Tom Ricketts decided he wanted it to.

As for your last comment, what do you mean? By being naive and agreeing to this type of deal with Zell? Or do you mean something else?

 

No, I mean Tom Ricketts can spend more and is choosing to make money instead.

[davell]

I think he's extremely naive and was taken advantage of by Zell myself. With the debt structure and all, I'm actually of the belief he couldn't spend more right now. That said, neither is a good scenario for us to have.

[mul21]

I think he's extremely naive and was taken advantage of by Zell myself. With the debt structure and all, I'm actually of the belief he couldn't spend more right now. That said, neither is a good scenario for us to have.

 

I think this is ridiculous. He may well have been taken advantage of by Zell, but it certainly wasn't due to naivety. I'm much more inclined to believe it was due to the fact that he was the only one that wanted the Cubs badly enough to agree to the deal as it's structured.

[davell]

I think he's extremely naive and was taken advantage of by Zell myself. With the debt structure and all, I'm actually of the belief he couldn't spend more right now. That said, neither is a good scenario for us to have.

 

I think this is ridiculous. He may well have been taken advantage of by Zell, but it certainly wasn't due to naivety. I'm much more inclined to believe it was due to the fact that he was the only one that wanted the Cubs badly enough to agree to the deal as it's structured.

Isn't that naivety? Wouldn't you wait it out until he caved in to your terms, if you were the last true, willing bidder?

[Tracer Bullet]

DUeL FRONTS

[mul21]

I think he's extremely naive and was taken advantage of by Zell myself. With the debt structure and all, I'm actually of the belief he couldn't spend more right now. That said, neither is a good scenario for us to have.

 

I think this is ridiculous. He may well have been taken advantage of by Zell, but it certainly wasn't due to naivety. I'm much more inclined to believe it was due to the fact that he was the only one that wanted the Cubs badly enough to agree to the deal as it's structured.

Isn't that naivety? Wouldn't you wait it out until he caved in to your terms, if you were the last true, willing bidder?

 

No, I think that's blind love for a new shiny toy. I'm sure they knew exactly what they were getting into. They're financial guys for the love of god, they understand these things.

[Guest]

I'm going with SSR on this one. The Cubs are highly profitable.

[davell]

I'm going with SSR on this one. The Cubs are highly profitable.

Of course they're highly profitable. Thats not the debate. The debate is whether the type deal Zell structured their financing around actually prevents them from spending for a period of time. There have been articles mentioning this.

[SouthSideRyan]

I think he's extremely naive and was taken advantage of by Zell myself. With the debt structure and all, I'm actually of the belief he couldn't spend more right now. That said, neither is a good scenario for us to have.

 

So when the Ricketts add on a huge financial burden over the next 5 years for stadium rehabs, we'll somehow be in a better financial state?

 

And somehow Snidley Zell managed to pull the wool over those backwoods simpleton Rickettses who managed to pull the wool over the infantile Epstein?

[davell]

I think he's extremely naive and was taken advantage of by Zell myself. With the debt structure and all, I'm actually of the belief he couldn't spend more right now. That said, neither is a good scenario for us to have.

 

So when the Ricketts add on a huge financial burden over the next 5 years for stadium rehabs, we'll somehow be in a better financial state?

 

And somehow Snidley Zell managed to pull the wool over those backwoods simpleton Rickettses who managed to pull the wool over the infantile Epstein?

From what I read, it limits the amount they're available to spend on payroll. It doesn't mean Ricketts is tapped out. It gave Zell more money this way somehow. At any rate, it keeps them from paying it down quickly. The renovations are a cash deal as it is, from everything I've read and are considered a separate entity that won't do anything but help the baseball ops department by increasing revenue streams, potentially as soon as they begin.

[Hairyducked Idiot]

I think he's extremely naive and was taken advantage of by Zell myself. With the debt structure and all, I'm actually of the belief he couldn't spend more right now. That said, neither is a good scenario for us to have.

 

I think this is ridiculous. He may well have been taken advantage of by Zell, but it certainly wasn't due to naivety. I'm much more inclined to believe it was due to the fact that he was the only one that wanted the Cubs badly enough to agree to the deal as it's structured.

 

Data point No. 2 is how naively he's handled the renovations.