Who do we trade and what do we expect in return?

[Hairyducked Idiot]

For the purposes of the conversation, I don't think it really matters what the status of the other teams are in the division

 

I guess so. But only because I guess you could limit the scope of the conversation to "Should the Cubs punt on 2014 at this trade deadline?" and we can (mostly) all agree "no," but I think the more interesting nuance is in trying to assess how realistic our 2014 chances are.

 

PIttsburgh's top 4 pitchers by fWAR are 2 relievers, Liriano, and Burnett. Their offense is currently being anchored by Starling Marte playing at a 6-7 win pace and Russell Martin the 5 WAR catcher. They're significantly outperforming their pythagorean. They have some good young players but their performance this year doesn't scream sustainability.

 

The Cardinals have fewer position players on track for above average seasons than the Cubs. I'll also take the under on 14 WAR from M. Carpenter and Molina next year. They have a great top end of the rotation, but their pitching depth doesn't wow you enough to forget that their positional depth may not be as spectacular as it seemed in April.

 

The Reds will lose Choo and Homer Bailey isn't a 5 win pitcher, but their performance seems to be the most sustainable to me. They don't have the farm system and continue to give Dusty Baker money to make decisions, so they'll run the risk of being the new Brewers, burning through the good pitching they managed to cobble together before they can really make a run.

 

This is the sort of nitpicking that had us all convinced we could go all-in on Pujols for 2011 because 85 wins might take the NL Central in 2012. These are all valid complaints, but it glosses over the strengths of those teams, and if you looked at the Cubs with an eye half that critical, I think you'd see our 2014 chances still look the fourth best out of the group.

[Guest]

This is the sort of nitpicking that had us all convinced we could go all-in on Pujols for 2011 because 85 wins might take the NL Central in 2012. These are all valid complaints, but it glosses over the strengths of those teams, and if you looked at the Cubs with an eye half that critical, I think you'd see our 2014 chances still look the fourth best out of the group.

 

I don't think anyone's saying otherwise. The nuance works both ways though. There's still a ton of roster-shaping to be done with as many assets as the Cubs figure to trade in the next month, as well as an offseason where they'll have 17 million in dead weight salary freed up(Marmol, Baker, Stewart) in addition to the 16-21 million of SP they'll be using to replace 1-2 rotation spots. Soriano's contract will be at it's most tradeable as well.

 

I'm not pointing out these weaknesses to say "those teams aren't really any good, 85 wins might win the Central in 2014", I'm saying that these teams probably aren't all great, so they aren't all going to win 90 games in 2014. That means that with very good moves made between now and then, the gap can be bridged to the point that maybe the Cubs are still considered #4 in the division heading into next year, but that gap is small enough that when baseball inevitably happens, the Cubs have at least a chance of being in the playoff hunt that isn't of the "if they win 15 in a row they're right back in this thing" variety.

 

And the emphasis should be on very good. This isn't an assured upward trajectory, and the moves they make this month are very important. They can make good deals for talented players and ruin that chance because they've done something like traded assets for a guy like Cecchini who won't be a big leaguer next year. This is why I've been beating the drum so hard for finding 2014 contributors with deadline assets. The immediate future looks a lot different if you can make this year's Dempster for Delgado deal become a reality and then maybe even do it again with a different SP or SP + OF.

[davell]

In the end, I expect Garza, Feldman, Gregg, and one of Schierholtz or DeJesus dealt. Soriano as well, if he gets hot enough to warrant a fairly solid return. Which means I suspect heading into 2014, we'll need 2 starting OFers, 2 starting pitchers, and at least 2-3 bullpen arms. I agree with TT, some of those holes need to be filled via trades this month. Maybe 3-4 of them actually.

[Guest]

http://www.bostonglobe.com/sports/2013/06/29/alex-rodriguez-what-have-you-done-yourself/A2gDYXdA3F7tq8HbABQlKN/story.html

 

DEAL WITH IT

 

Epstein has the pieces to make things happen

 

Theo Epstein’s Cubs may be in the best position to make deals at the deadline, but it appears he is ready to strike with Matt Garza sooner rather than later.

 

Given the way Garza has pitched lately (two earned runs in his last 22 innings over three starts), it appears he will be dealt well ahead of the deadline, according to major league sources. The Orioles seem to be a very good fit, given that Garza is battle-tested in the AL East.

 

The Cubs were hoping to trade Garza by spring training, but then he suffered an oblique injury and couldn’t start the season on time. He had to go through rehab starts, and then go out and show he was healthy.

 

He’s shown that, and it might behoove the Cubs to deal him before there’s another setback.

 

One NL GM said, “There’s a lot of competition for him. I think Theo is getting inundated with calls for him, so he’s probably the hot name.”

 

Garza should bring the Cubs three players, including two top prospects.

 

Besides Garza, there’s been a lot of interest in Nate Schierholtz, who entered Saturday with a .284 average, 11 homers, 33 RBIs, and 19 doubles. Schierholtz also has played an excellent outfield. The Cubs signed Schierholtz to a one-year, $2.25 million deal last offseason, and it appears the flip price is going to work in their favor.

 

The Cubs also have veteran righthander Scott Feldman, whom they also plan to trade after signing him to a one-year, $6 million deal. Feldman is 7-6 with a 3.46 ERA. Look for the Orioles to be a bidder for his services. And there’s always Alfonso Soriano and David DeJesus, and out of the bullpen, Kevin Gregg and James Russell.

 

You don’t hear much about Soriano anymore, but he’s in the mix if someone wants him. The Cubs are hoping to get pitching prospects in these deals. While they appear to be set for good positional players in the minors, they lack pitching depth, and that’s where Epstein would like to score a bonanza with his veteran players.

[Guest]

This century, the Cardinals have won:

 

51 so far (best record in league)

 

So, uh yeah, I'm going to go out on a limb and say they'll be good next year. And then you factor in all their young talent.

 

The Cardinals have neither won 51 games (yet) nor do they have the best record in the league.

[mul21]

Man, as tough as power is to come by these days, I'm really reluctant to deal Schierholtz even with a decent return if there are any hopes of being competitive next year. Especially since he's the strong side of the platoon. I'm hoping Dejesus comes back early enough and well enough that they can get something for him instead.

[Exile on Waveland]

This century, the Cardinals have won:

 

51 so far (best record in league)

 

So, uh yeah, I'm going to go out on a limb and say they'll be good next year. And then you factor in all their young talent.

 

The Cardinals have neither won 51 games (yet) nor do they have the best record in the league.

 

Apologies. Mistake edited. Point stands.

[davell]

What did Bowden project as his Garza trade? It was less than flattering, from what Twitter responses have shown anyway.

[Splendid Splinter]

http://www.bostonglobe.com/sports/2013/06/29/alex-rodriguez-what-have-you-done-yourself/A2gDYXdA3F7tq8HbABQlKN/story.html

 

 

Given the way Garza has pitched lately (two earned runs in his last 22 innings over three starts), it appears he will be dealt well ahead of the deadline, according to major league sources. The Orioles seem to be a very good fit, given that Garza is battle-tested in the AL East.

 

The Cubs were hoping to trade Garza by spring training, but then he suffered an oblique injury and couldn’t start the season on time. He had to go through rehab starts, and then go out and show he was healthy.

 

He’s shown that, and it might behoove the Cubs to deal him before there’s another setback.

 

One NL GM said, “There’s a lot of competition for him. I think Theo is getting inundated with calls for him, so he’s probably the hot name.”

 

Garza should bring the Cubs three players, including two top prospects.

 

 

How is Orioles a very good fit considering what Garza should bring back? It would means that one of Bundy/Gausman is def coming back (since it says including 2 top prospects) unless this guy meaning of "top prospect" is a lot different than mine.

[BeerHere]

http://www.bostonglobe.com/sports/2013/06/29/alex-rodriguez-what-have-you-done-yourself/A2gDYXdA3F7tq8HbABQlKN/story.html

 

 

Given the way Garza has pitched lately (two earned runs in his last 22 innings over three starts), it appears he will be dealt well ahead of the deadline, according to major league sources. The Orioles seem to be a very good fit, given that Garza is battle-tested in the AL East.

 

The Cubs were hoping to trade Garza by spring training, but then he suffered an oblique injury and couldn’t start the season on time. He had to go through rehab starts, and then go out and show he was healthy.

 

He’s shown that, and it might behoove the Cubs to deal him before there’s another setback.

 

One NL GM said, “There’s a lot of competition for him. I think Theo is getting inundated with calls for him, so he’s probably the hot name.”

 

Garza should bring the Cubs three players, including two top prospects.

 

 

How is Orioles a very good fit considering what Garza should bring back? It would means that one of Bundy/Gausman is def coming back (since it says including 2 top prospects) unless this guy meaning of "top prospect" is a lot different than mine.

I thought the same thing. I'm guessing he is saying that the O's are a good fit based on need rather than ability to provide the pieces the Cubs would want.

[CubsWin]

Another head-scratching rumor is the one coming out of Colorado.

The Rockies have already been connected to a few notable pitchers in trade rumors and now Cubs right-hander Scott Feldman can be added to the list, Troy Renck of the Denver Post reports. That said, the Rockies don't want to give up prospects for "a rental starter who is not going to re-sign" and Feldman is a free agent this winter. MLBTR's Steve Adams noted that Feldman's solid ground-ball rate (50.7%) would make him a good fit at Coors Field...

Just as I'm having trouble seeing the Orioles come up with two good prospects for Garza, the only matches I could find on the Rockies roster (seeing as they don't want to give up prospects, not that they have any...) that the Cubs would be interested in for Feldman are Pomeranz and Chatwood. Does it make sense for the Rockies to trade either of these guys to improve their roster this year? Who else could they be thinking of dealing? Chacin?

 

That said, would you take Pomeranz in exchange for Feldman? At first glance, I would. Am I missing something?

[CubsWin]

http://www.bostonglobe.com/sports/2013/06/29/alex-rodriguez-what-have-you-done-yourself/A2gDYXdA3F7tq8HbABQlKN/story.html

 

 

Given the way Garza has pitched lately (two earned runs in his last 22 innings over three starts), it appears he will be dealt well ahead of the deadline, according to major league sources. The Orioles seem to be a very good fit, given that Garza is battle-tested in the AL East.

 

The Cubs were hoping to trade Garza by spring training, but then he suffered an oblique injury and couldn’t start the season on time. He had to go through rehab starts, and then go out and show he was healthy.

 

He’s shown that, and it might behoove the Cubs to deal him before there’s another setback.

 

One NL GM said, “There’s a lot of competition for him. I think Theo is getting inundated with calls for him, so he’s probably the hot name.”

 

Garza should bring the Cubs three players, including two top prospects.

 

 

How is Orioles a very good fit considering what Garza should bring back? It would means that one of Bundy/Gausman is def coming back (since it says including 2 top prospects) unless this guy meaning of "top prospect" is a lot different than mine.

I thought the same thing. I'm guessing he is saying that the O's are a good fit based on need rather than ability to provide the pieces the Cubs would want.

Unless with Bundy's TJS they're willing to move him for Garza. If that's true and the 2nd prospect is LHP Eduardo Rodriguez, then maybe, but the only way that is worth it for the O's is if they can extend Garza. For the third prospect, throw-in somebody like Michael Belfiore as a future lefty out of the pen and I'm definitely interested in that for Garza. Add something going back the other way if necessary. Are the O's desperate enough to win this year (they're 3 up in the wild card race) to give up on Bundy assuming they can work out a pre-trade deal to extend Garza?

 

How do you guys feel about Bundy post-TJS? I'd jump at it personally.

[BeerHere]

Another head-scratching rumor is the one coming out of Colorado.

The Rockies have already been connected to a few notable pitchers in trade rumors and now Cubs right-hander Scott Feldman can be added to the list, Troy Renck of the Denver Post reports. That said, the Rockies don't want to give up prospects for "a rental starter who is not going to re-sign" and Feldman is a free agent this winter. MLBTR's Steve Adams noted that Feldman's solid ground-ball rate (50.7%) would make him a good fit at Coors Field...

Just as I'm having trouble seeing the Orioles come up with two good prospects for Garza, the only matches I could find on the Rockies roster (seeing as they don't want to give up prospects, not that they have any...) that the Cubs would be interested in for Feldman are Pomeranz and Chatwood. Does it make sense for the Rockies to trade either of these guys to improve their roster this year? Who else could they be thinking of dealing? Chacin?

 

That said, would you take Pomeranz in exchange for Feldman? At first glance, I would. Am I missing something?

I would too.

[BeerHere]

http://www.bostonglobe.com/sports/2013/06/29/alex-rodriguez-what-have-you-done-yourself/A2gDYXdA3F7tq8HbABQlKN/story.html

 

 

Given the way Garza has pitched lately (two earned runs in his last 22 innings over three starts), it appears he will be dealt well ahead of the deadline, according to major league sources. The Orioles seem to be a very good fit, given that Garza is battle-tested in the AL East.

 

The Cubs were hoping to trade Garza by spring training, but then he suffered an oblique injury and couldn’t start the season on time. He had to go through rehab starts, and then go out and show he was healthy.

 

He’s shown that, and it might behoove the Cubs to deal him before there’s another setback.

 

One NL GM said, “There’s a lot of competition for him. I think Theo is getting inundated with calls for him, so he’s probably the hot name.”

 

Garza should bring the Cubs three players, including two top prospects.

 

 

How is Orioles a very good fit considering what Garza should bring back? It would means that one of Bundy/Gausman is def coming back (since it says including 2 top prospects) unless this guy meaning of "top prospect" is a lot different than mine.

I thought the same thing. I'm guessing he is saying that the O's are a good fit based on need rather than ability to provide the pieces the Cubs would want.

Unless with Bundy's TJS they're willing to move him for Garza. If that's true and the 2nd prospect is LHP Eduardo Rodriguez, then maybe, but the only way that is worth it for the O's is if they can extend Garza. For the third prospect, throw-in somebody like Michael Belfiore as a future lefty out of the pen and I'm definitely interested in that for Garza. Add something going back the other way if necessary. Are the O's desperate enough to win this year (they're 3 up in the wild card race) to give up on Bundy assuming they can work out a pre-trade deal to extend Garza?

 

How do you guys feel about Bundy post-TJS? I'd jump at it personally.

While the Vizcaino situation make it a little more difficult, I would love to get Bundy. A far as injuries go, TJS is much better than a shoulder issue.

[Clem Fandango]

That said, would you take Pomeranz in exchange for Feldman? At first glance, I would. Am I missing something?

 

What happened to Pomeranz? He went from being one of the better pitching prospects in baseball to being kind of an afterthought, it seems.

[XZero771679666304]

Another head-scratching rumor is the one coming out of Colorado.

The Rockies have already been connected to a few notable pitchers in trade rumors and now Cubs right-hander Scott Feldman can be added to the list, Troy Renck of the Denver Post reports. That said, the Rockies don't want to give up prospects for "a rental starter who is not going to re-sign" and Feldman is a free agent this winter. MLBTR's Steve Adams noted that Feldman's solid ground-ball rate (50.7%) would make him a good fit at Coors Field...

Just as I'm having trouble seeing the Orioles come up with two good prospects for Garza, the only matches I could find on the Rockies roster (seeing as they don't want to give up prospects, not that they have any...) that the Cubs would be interested in for Feldman are Pomeranz and Chatwood. Does it make sense for the Rockies to trade either of these guys to improve their roster this year? Who else could they be thinking of dealing? Chacin?

 

That said, would you take Pomeranz in exchange for Feldman? At first glance, I would. Am I missing something?

I would too.

 

Well, sure. There's no way in hell the Rockies do that, though, and I wouldn't either.

[CubsWin]

Another head-scratching rumor is the one coming out of Colorado.

The Rockies have already been connected to a few notable pitchers in trade rumors and now Cubs right-hander Scott Feldman can be added to the list, Troy Renck of the Denver Post reports. That said, the Rockies don't want to give up prospects for "a rental starter who is not going to re-sign" and Feldman is a free agent this winter. MLBTR's Steve Adams noted that Feldman's solid ground-ball rate (50.7%) would make him a good fit at Coors Field...

Just as I'm having trouble seeing the Orioles come up with two good prospects for Garza, the only matches I could find on the Rockies roster (seeing as they don't want to give up prospects, not that they have any...) that the Cubs would be interested in for Feldman are Pomeranz and Chatwood. Does it make sense for the Rockies to trade either of these guys to improve their roster this year? Who else could they be thinking of dealing? Chacin?

 

That said, would you take Pomeranz in exchange for Feldman? At first glance, I would. Am I missing something?

I would too.

 

Well, sure. There's no way in hell the Rockies do that, though, and I wouldn't either.

Precisely my point. The Rockies say they don't want to trade prospects for a rental, not that they have any of interest. So that means they prefer to trade from their 25-man roster. If it's accurate that they're interested in Feldman, who could they possibly be thinking of trading away...? I don't see a match anywhere. Chatwood? Chacin?

 

Pomeranz is the least proven of those mentioned. Do you see someone I'm missing?

[Guest]

Another head-scratching rumor is the one coming out of Colorado.

The Rockies have already been connected to a few notable pitchers in trade rumors and now Cubs right-hander Scott Feldman can be added to the list, Troy Renck of the Denver Post reports. That said, the Rockies don't want to give up prospects for "a rental starter who is not going to re-sign" and Feldman is a free agent this winter. MLBTR's Steve Adams noted that Feldman's solid ground-ball rate (50.7%) would make him a good fit at Coors Field...

Just as I'm having trouble seeing the Orioles come up with two good prospects for Garza, the only matches I could find on the Rockies roster (seeing as they don't want to give up prospects, not that they have any...) that the Cubs would be interested in for Feldman are Pomeranz and Chatwood. Does it make sense for the Rockies to trade either of these guys to improve their roster this year? Who else could they be thinking of dealing? Chacin?

 

That said, would you take Pomeranz in exchange for Feldman? At first glance, I would. Am I missing something?

I would too.

 

Well, sure. There's no way in hell the Rockies do that, though, and I wouldn't either.

Precisely my point. The Rockies say they don't want to trade prospects for a rental, not that they have any of interest. So that means they prefer to trade from their 25-man roster. If it's accurate that they're interested in Feldman, who could they possibly be thinking of trading away...? I don't see a match anywhere. Chatwood? Chacin?

 

Pomeranz is the least proven of those mentioned. Do you see someone I'm missing?

 

I think that means the Rockies are not going to give up more than non-prospects for a rental if they trade for one at all, not that they would be dealing from the MLB roster for rentals.

[CubsWin]

Well, sure. There's no way in hell the Rockies do that, though, and I wouldn't either.

Precisely my point. The Rockies say they don't want to trade prospects for a rental, not that they have any of interest. So that means they prefer to trade from their 25-man roster. If it's accurate that they're interested in Feldman, who could they possibly be thinking of trading away...? I don't see a match anywhere. Chatwood? Chacin?

 

Pomeranz is the least proven of those mentioned. Do you see someone I'm missing?

 

I think that means the Rockies are not going to give up more than non-prospects for a rental if they trade for one at all, not that they would be dealing from the MLB roster for rentals.

Why would a team trade them a starting pitcher who will help them get to the playoffs for a non-prospect who isn't on the 25-man roster? Isn't that the definition of organizational filler?

[Guest]

Well, sure. There's no way in hell the Rockies do that, though, and I wouldn't either.

Precisely my point. The Rockies say they don't want to trade prospects for a rental, not that they have any of interest. So that means they prefer to trade from their 25-man roster. If it's accurate that they're interested in Feldman, who could they possibly be thinking of trading away...? I don't see a match anywhere. Chatwood? Chacin?

 

Pomeranz is the least proven of those mentioned. Do you see someone I'm missing?

 

I think that means the Rockies are not going to give up more than non-prospects for a rental if they trade for one at all, not that they would be dealing from the MLB roster for rentals.

Why would a team trade them a starting pitcher who will help them get to the playoffs for a non-prospect who isn't on the 25-man roster? Isn't that the definition of organizational filler?

 

Not many would, which is to say they're not all that likely to trade for a rental. The ones that would make such a deal would be for salary relief, like the Marlins and Nolasco. It might be too much of a seller's market for even that though, at least for now.

[Guest]

John Arguello of Cubs Den: http://www.chicagonow.com/cubs-den/2013/07/cubs-rumor-thread-marmol-to-dodgers/

 

Hearing now that the Jays have intensified their pursuit of Matt Garza and while I'm not sure about the headliner, it appears RHP Kyle Drabek and LHP Sean Nolin might be part of the equation. The former is high risk and the latter is more of a lower ceiling guy, but they are both close to MLB ready -- probably by next season if not the end of this year.

Ken Rosenthal reports that the Cubs are all but certain to trade R

 

Nolin puts up some awfully pretty numbers for being a lower ceiling guy.

[TruffleShuffle]

i always thought drabek profiled more as a bullpen arm. which i guess would be fine given the status of our bullpen right now.

[BeerHere]

John Arguello of Cubs Den: http://www.chicagonow.com/cubs-den/2013/07/cubs-rumor-thread-marmol-to-dodgers/

 

Hearing now that the Jays have intensified their pursuit of Matt Garza and while I'm not sure about the headliner, it appears RHP Kyle Drabek and LHP Sean Nolin might be part of the equation. The former is high risk and the latter is more of a lower ceiling guy, but they are both close to MLB ready -- probably by next season if not the end of this year.

Ken Rosenthal reports that the Cubs are all but certain to trade R

 

Nolin puts up some awfully pretty numbers for being a lower ceiling guy.

After pitching 70+ innings for the Jays in each of the last two seasons, why is Drabek back in HighA ball? Did he get hurt or something? Either way, Nolan is ok and I would hope for something more for Garza.

[TruffleShuffle]

After pitching 70+ innings for the Jays in each of the last two seasons, why is Drabek back in HighA ball? Did he get hurt or something? Either way, Nolan is ok and I would hope for something more for Garza.

 

had TJS last year.

[BeerHere]

After pitching 70+ innings for the Jays in each of the last two seasons, why is Drabek back in HighA ball? Did he get hurt or something? Either way, Nolan is ok and I would hope for something more for Garza.

 

had TJS last year.

Seriously, wouldn't you want more for Garza than Drabek and Nolin? I've never been high on Drabek at all. Nolin looks decent but the risk with Drabek is enough to offset any overall upside to me.