John Arguello: Cubs Scouting Blue Jays & Royals' Systems

[Little Slide Rooter]

@BlueJays: RHP RAMON ORTIZ and RHP MICKEY STOREY have had their contracts selected from @BuffaloBisons (AAA).

 

Hm, a pitching-desperate win now team with a nice farm system. Hoyerstein Signal.

[CubsWin]

I mean, we got Johnson at 41 last year. He was definitely a top 10 guy in our system heading into the year. Other guys that went after 34 were Joey Gallo, Lance McCullers, Matt Smoral, Walker Weickel, and Carson Kelly. All of whom were considered top 10-15 talents by quite a few. Even if the draft is weaker, there's still going to be top end types that fall. Getting ahead of Houston is a really good idea, especially with the Yanks and a few other teams having multiple picks ahead of us that can maneuver things to pick off a big name that dropped as well. Bottom line for me is I think a guy that fits inside our top 10 is very solid value for DeJesus, which I see pick 34 bringing us.

I agree. That comp pick would be an awesome return. I'd even be willing to add to DeJesus to get it.

 

Kyle Smith wouldn't be enough. Smith and Elier Hernandez, sure. Cam Gallagher straight up? I'd do it. I'd love to see a move happen before the draft regardless.

[Hairyducked Idiot]

The No. 34 pick has a total of 87.2 bWAR over 48 picks. Take out the guys who haven't been around long enough to reach the majors, and you're still averaging under 2 WAR per pick. The last to produce 10 bWAR in the major leagues was Arthur Rhodes, drafted in 1987.

 

I don't mind picking up the pick just because it's fun, but if we're trading anything serious, it's a throw-in and not the prize.

[davell]

I really don't see your fascination of taking that pick at a literal number. The draft has changed. The true value of the pick could be much higher than that. Because we wouldn't be skimping with it, as plenty of others have in the past. Its very likely you can get a player in the 20-25 range, pay up for the player, and skimp on your 7-10 round picks. A player that falls inside the top 30 can easily net you a guy that fits in the 5-7 range in your system. As a general rule, my guess is your scouts will have more info on a just drafted guy like that, than they would on a similar player taken from another system. Its one thing if you think DeJesus is worth more than that type of return, but if thats the range of value you see him in, I'd rather take the draft pick than a guy from another system.

[Hairyducked Idiot]

I really don't see your fascination of taking that pick at a literal number. The draft has changed. The true value of the pick could be much higher than that. Because we wouldn't be skimping with it, as plenty of others have in the past. Its very likely you can get a player in the 20-25 range, pay up for the player, and skimp on your 7-10 round picks. A player that falls inside the top 30 can easily net you a guy that fits in the 5-7 range in your system. As a general rule, my guess is your scouts will have more info on a just drafted guy like that, than they would on a similar player taken from another system. Its one thing if you think DeJesus is worth more than that type of return, but if thats the range of value you see him in, I'd rather take the draft pick than a guy from another system.

 

I don't get the fascination with non-elite draft picks. The changes in the draft have made it harder for talents to slip down and be taken, not easier, so the pick should in theory be worth even less.

 

I think we can do a lot better for DeJesus. I'd consider the pick to maybe be on the low end of acceptable for him, but even that's mostly because the novelty factor of trading for a pick makes it a bit more appealing.

[davell]

So, do you agree that the pick produces someone very likely to slot in our top 5-7 prospects(or at least in a normalish system, we've got depth)? I guess I'm asking you to put a value on him, in your mind.

[Hairyducked Idiot]

So, do you agree that the pick produces someone very likely to slot in our top 5-7 prospects(or at least in a normalish system, we've got depth)? I guess I'm asking you to put a value on him, in your mind.

 

On DeJesus? I want something similar to what we got for Maholm, another 2-win player with a team-friendly option.

[davell]

So, do you agree that the pick produces someone very likely to slot in our top 5-7 prospects(or at least in a normalish system, we've got depth)? I guess I'm asking you to put a value on him, in your mind.

 

On DeJesus? I want something similar to what we got for Maholm, another 2-win player with a team-friendly option.

Look, I agree. But I think thats slightly unrealistic. Maholm was pitching out of his mind, the Braves were in need of pitching and didn't have money to spend. Plenty of teams will be in the market for pitching every deadline. There won't be nearly as many looking for a top of the order hitting CFer or a corner OFer that lacks power. Not to mention, the only way we got a Vizcaino in the first place was because he was hurt. To me, the chances of getting a top 100 type for DeJesus is almost non-existent. And before you follow up with"don't trade him then" I much prefer the idea of Ellsbury in CF next year for us or Brett, if he figures things out. To me, we may as well get what we can, while we can, on DeJesus. He won't be that hard to replace, unless he continues at his current pace. Which I'm fairly certain no one expects that.

[Hairyducked Idiot]

I wouldn't say "don't trade him then." I expect more for him, but if the best thing we get offered is the No. 34 pick, then I'll just assume my expectations were too high.

[Guest]

I really don't see your fascination of taking that pick at a literal number. The draft has changed. The true value of the pick could be much higher than that. Because we wouldn't be skimping with it, as plenty of others have in the past. Its very likely you can get a player in the 20-25 range, pay up for the player, and skimp on your 7-10 round picks. A player that falls inside the top 30 can easily net you a guy that fits in the 5-7 range in your system. As a general rule, my guess is your scouts will have more info on a just drafted guy like that, than they would on a similar player taken from another system. Its one thing if you think DeJesus is worth more than that type of return, but if thats the range of value you see him in, I'd rather take the draft pick than a guy from another system.

 

I think it's hilarious, it's so pointless.

[Hairyducked Idiot]

It's not meant to be used that literally in the sense of "it's the exact equivalent of a 1.8 WAR player" or anything like that.

 

I'm just trying to really hammer home how top-heavy the MLB draft is. It seems like people really want an NFL-style narrative to the draft, with lots of intrigue and value past the first round, but it just isn't there. And we all want the new CBA to be exploitable (including myself, with the "punt the 2nd rounder and try to buy Appel out of Houston" idea), but it seems pretty airtight to me. Houston's machinations still look like to me that they came out worse than if they'd just played it straight last year.

[Tryptamine]

If I'm the Cubs I'm doing everything in my power to get Yordona Ventura from the Royals. Probably the most unheralded pitching prospect in the game.

[Little Slide Rooter]

If I'm the Cubs I'm doing everything in my power to get Yordona Ventura from the Royals. Probably the most unheralded pitching prospect in the game.

 

I don't know how quick the Royals will be to come out of any of their pitching prospects. Even if Ervin Santana's not an injury waiting to happen, he's a free agent after this season, as is James Shields. Starting Pitching's been a problem of theirs for a few years now, so in order to give up one of their top pitching prospects, they'd likely want a big league starter with a few years of team control. At this point, I'm not sure I'd give up Wood without more of a sure thing in return, but they might bite if we offered them DeJesus and DeJesus for a prospect package including Ventura.

[Little Slide Rooter]

David DeJesus is 32 with a 6.5MM team option for 2014. Nate Schierholtz is 29 and arb eligible in 2014 and a free in 2015. I can't see us resigning a 31 year old Schierholtz in 2015, and I can't see DeJesus falling off a cliff in 2014. Assuming that neither are in the post-2014 plan, as of now, could Schierholtz generate a better return than DeJesus and then pick up DeJesus' 2014 option?

[Exile on Waveland]

While I'm not a literalist about the thirty-fourth pick, I'm with Kyle that such a pick is not worth much. I'd rather just keep DeJesus for next year and hope to win the bullpen lottery and have a couple players have career years (and this coming from someone who thinks the Cubs will stink again next year).

[illiniguy]

While I'm not a literalist about the thirty-fourth pick, I'm with Kyle that such a pick is not worth much. I'd rather just keep DeJesus for next year and hope to win the bullpen lottery and have a couple players have career years (and this coming from someone who thinks the Cubs will stink again next year).

I am all for moving Dejesus. Would rather have a prospect back than a sandwich pick, but would prefer either to David. This is assuming we have money to spend in FA next year.

[Guest]

David DeJesus is 32 with a 6.5MM team option for 2014. Nate Schierholtz is 29 and arb eligible in 2014 and a free in 2015. I can't see us resigning a 31 year old Schierholtz in 2015, and I can't see DeJesus falling off a cliff in 2014. Assuming that neither are in the post-2014 plan, as of now, could Schierholtz generate a better return than DeJesus and then pick up DeJesus' 2014 option?

 

Schierholtz could pretty easily be extended or retained past next year, DeJesus(who is 33 and has back to back sub-2 win seasons) could easily fall off at age 34, and DeJesus has much more trade value because of his past and the fact that he's not being shielded by a platoon.

[Sammy Sofa]

Uh, TT, DeJesus is very obviously "shielded by a platoon" this season.

[jersey cubs fan]

Uh, TT, DeJesus is very obviously "shielded by a platoon" this season.

 

Yeah, DeJesus has 12 PA against LHP this season (compared to Starlin and Rizzo with ~45 each) and he's got a sub 300 OPS in those PA.

[Guest]

Uh, TT, DeJesus is very obviously "shielded by a platoon" this season.

 

Ack, brain fart there, although his platoon partner is gone now so he should be getting more PA going forward. Better phrasing would be he doesn't have the same platoon OF stigma as Schierholtz when it comes to trade value, as this year was the first he was truly in a platoon(and that only lasted a month).

[UK1679666180]

I really don't see your fascination of taking that pick at a literal number. The draft has changed. The true value of the pick could be much higher than that. Because we wouldn't be skimping with it, as plenty of others have in the past. Its very likely you can get a player in the 20-25 range, pay up for the player, and skimp on your 7-10 round picks. A player that falls inside the top 30 can easily net you a guy that fits in the 5-7 range in your system. As a general rule, my guess is your scouts will have more info on a just drafted guy like that, than they would on a similar player taken from another system. Its one thing if you think DeJesus is worth more than that type of return, but if thats the range of value you see him in, I'd rather take the draft pick than a guy from another system.

 

 

I'm trying to understand your logic on this one and I can't.

 

From a competitive standpoint, baseball lifestyle, # of scout observations, and age progression it all gears towards more knowledge going towards players within minor league systems over potential early draft picks.

[davell]

I really don't see your fascination of taking that pick at a literal number. The draft has changed. The true value of the pick could be much higher than that. Because we wouldn't be skimping with it, as plenty of others have in the past. Its very likely you can get a player in the 20-25 range, pay up for the player, and skimp on your 7-10 round picks. A player that falls inside the top 30 can easily net you a guy that fits in the 5-7 range in your system. As a general rule, my guess is your scouts will have more info on a just drafted guy like that, than they would on a similar player taken from another system. Its one thing if you think DeJesus is worth more than that type of return, but if thats the range of value you see him in, I'd rather take the draft pick than a guy from another system.

 

 

I'm trying to understand your logic on this one and I can't.

 

From a competitive standpoint, baseball lifestyle, # of scout observations, and age progression it all gears towards more knowledge going towards players within minor league systems over potential early draft picks.

 

I was basing it more on makeup, I guess. You've got access to a players inner circle prior to being drafted in most cases, don't you. I would think once a player gets inside a system, the players attitude, lifestyle, work habits, etc are a bit harder to uncover. May be easier to hide things that developed since they were drafted. Am I wrong on this or are scouts pretty easy to get info from, on whats going on within their orgs?

[UK1679666180]

Its more difficult before they are drafted unless you know someone close to them or their coach is honest. Its a completely different animal playing minor league ball to hs and even college as far as how they occupy their free-time.

 

Scouts talk and minor league coaches talk, they have no reason to cover up poor behavior while amatuer coaches tend to protect to an extent.