Random Cubs Musings

[Guest]

So do people actually think Russell is getting called up early this year? I've always been under the impression he'll be, at most, a September callup.

 

I think the safe bet is that he's a September call up at best, but there's a lot of moving pieces. Number 1 is his performance at Iowa, if he's got a .900+ OPS at the all-star break there's going to be some pressure to put him on the MLB roster. After that it depends a bit on MLB need and how the team is doing in the standings. Bryant's 3B defense and the bats of Baez, Alcantara, and to a lesser extent La Stella will all dictate that. I doubt they'll call Russell up before September if he's not going to be playing every day, so he'd need an opening, or one to be created for him with a deadline deal.

 

Sure, if everyone is playing well to where there is no place an attempted jolt could be used, I could see it taking longer, but I don't think all those guys will be playing well.

 

 

It's not so much an 'all of those guys playing well' thing as 'Bryant not killing himself playing 3B and any one of Baez, Alcantara or (probably) La Stella hitting well'. There's probably other potential situations too(the most obvious I can think of is Alcantara to CF/LF to replace the platoon), but you get the idea that it doesn't take 10 dominoes falling into place to keep Russell down past the all-star break.

 

What about just wanting Russell in the lineup over Coghlan/Denorfia (or whoever is playing LF - not to mention the defensive upgrade involved both at 3B and probably in LF)?

[Guest]

What about just wanting Russell in the lineup over Coghlan/Denorfia (or whoever is playing LF - not to mention the defensive upgrade involved both at 3B and probably in LF)?

 

If Bryant is acquitting himself okay at 3B, I have my doubts that they'll mess around with his position. Maybe if Russell is pulling a Bryant at Iowa and there's a huge hole in the OF(both Coghlan/Denorfia suck, long term Fowler injury, etc), but in the more likely case the difference from the platoon to Russell for a couple months is not going to be a large enough difference to justify changing Bryant's position. Not that it can't or even won't happen, but we're talking about degrees of certainty about Russell being up this summer.

[Guest]

What about just wanting Russell in the lineup over Coghlan/Denorfia (or whoever is playing LF - not to mention the defensive upgrade involved both at 3B and probably in LF)?

 

If Bryant is acquitting himself okay at 3B, I have my doubts that they'll mess around with his position. Maybe if Russell is pulling a Bryant at Iowa and there's a huge hole in the OF(both Coghlan/Denorfia suck, long term Fowler injury, etc), but in the more likely case the difference from the platoon to Russell for a couple months is not going to be a large enough difference to justify changing Bryant's position. Not that it can't or even won't happen, but we're talking about degrees of certainty about Russell being up this summer.

 

Eh, if Baez/Lastella/Alcantara/Castro or whoever else have the other infield spots locked down, Russell has to move Bryant to the OF at some point, and it's probably an upgrade defensively at both positions, and probably a significant one at 3B. I'd rather put the best team on the field than just try to maximize Bryant's worth by keeping him at 3B for the sake of doing so because he's passable (not sure if that's what you're suggesting but it seemed that way).

[mul21]

What about just wanting Russell in the lineup over Coghlan/Denorfia (or whoever is playing LF - not to mention the defensive upgrade involved both at 3B and probably in LF)?

 

If Bryant is acquitting himself okay at 3B, I have my doubts that they'll mess around with his position. Maybe if Russell is pulling a Bryant at Iowa and there's a huge hole in the OF(both Coghlan/Denorfia suck, long term Fowler injury, etc), but in the more likely case the difference from the platoon to Russell for a couple months is not going to be a large enough difference to justify changing Bryant's position. Not that it can't or even won't happen, but we're talking about degrees of certainty about Russell being up this summer.

 

Eh, if Baez/Lastella/Alcantara/Castro or whoever else have the other infield spots locked down, Russell has to move Bryant to the OF at some point, and it's probably an upgrade defensively at both positions, and probably a significant one at 3B. I'd rather put the best team on the field than just try to maximize Bryant's worth by keeping him at 3B for the sake of doing so because he's passable (not sure if that's what you're suggesting but it seemed that way).

 

I think he's suggesting that the offensive uncertainty of Russell isn't worth potentially giving up games (or making him a super 2 or whatever the timeline comes down to) for the likely small gain he 'might' provide over the platoon.

[Guest]

Would surprise me since he's more down on Coghlan (thus, presumably his offensive "certainty") than even I am.

[Sammys Boombox]

I hate talking about the Cubs with real people. Guy stopped me in a gas station because I'm wearing a Cubs hat. Wants to tell me that he doesn't think the Cubs will be good until 2017. So, naturally, they should trade Castro for Brandon Phillips straight up and wait for Baez to be good. Somehow he knows Baez is going to struggle the next two years, but is then going to be the best SS in the game in 2017.

[weis21]

I hate talking about the Cubs with real people. Guy stopped me in a gas station because I'm wearing a Cubs hat. Wants to tell me that he doesn't think the Cubs will be good until 2017. So, naturally, they should trade Castro for Brandon Phillips straight up and wait for Baez to be good. Somehow he knows Baez is going to struggle the next two years, but is then going to be the best SS in the game in 2017.

Yeah. There's an older gentleman on campus that advises students for the honors college who found out I'm a Cubs fan like him. He now emails me randomly every couple of months whenever the Cubs make a deal to get my "take" (which isn't worth much at NSBB but is head and shoulders a higher IQ than the average NC baseball fan). He's nice enough and I don't mind the emails at all (unless I'm super busy) but it's just a little awkward. It also feels like he's trying to get my approval before he decides if he likes a move or not (most recently the Fowler trade). Outside of these sporadic emails I literally never have any contact with him. But maybe he just wants a friend and I'm being a jerk.

[Guest]

So do people actually think Russell is getting called up early this year? I've always been under the impression he'll be, at most, a September callup.

 

Early? No. I expect June/July if things are going well in AAA right off the bat. August if he starts off slowish.

 

I can't remember exactly but isn't that what we thought about Baez last year (the latter scenario ended up being the case)?

[George Hayduke]

I hate talking about the Cubs with real people. Guy stopped me in a gas station because I'm wearing a Cubs hat. Wants to tell me that he doesn't think the Cubs will be good until 2017. So, naturally, they should trade Castro for Brandon Phillips straight up and wait for Baez to be good. Somehow he knows Baez is going to struggle the next two years, but is then going to be the best SS in the game in 2017.

Yeah. There's an older gentleman on campus that advises students for the honors college who found out I'm a Cubs fan like him. He now emails me randomly every couple of months whenever the Cubs make a deal to get my "take" (which isn't worth much at NSBB but is head and shoulders a higher IQ than the average NC baseball fan). He's nice enough and I don't mind the emails at all (unless I'm super busy) but it's just a little awkward. It also feels like he's trying to get my approval before he decides if he likes a move or not (most recently the Fowler trade). Outside of these sporadic emails I literally never have any contact with him. But maybe he just wants a friend and I'm being a jerk.

It sounds like he really respects / highly regards your opinion on things Cubs related, or at the very least recognizes that you know more about it than he does. That's a compliment, you should be flattered. Even if it is a little awkward.

[weis21]

Sorry if this had been posted elsewhere, but FG did a piece on "why the Cubs should keep Starlin Castro":

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/community/why-the-chicago-cubs-should-keep-starlin-castro/

 

Lots of love and optimism in that piece

[Felix Leiter]

You're right, it's pretty one-sided towards Starlin. He left off his many mental lapses where he seems disinterested at times and brushes with the law. How convenient. And while this would be the perfect time for him to step up and be a leader for the young Latin players like Baez, Almora and Soler, I don't think you want anyone to emulate him. Look how Rizzo has stepped up and is the clear leader. It's the front office's job not to bad mouth Starlin to keep his trade value up, but if he is worth so much and so talented-certainly other teams would pay established starting pitching to get him. Theo is playing this right. Go into 2015, play Starlin at SS and check on the development of Addison Russell. When he's ready to be called up, you start offering Castro around.

[Guest]

Sorry if this had been posted elsewhere, but FG did a piece on "why the Cubs should keep Starlin Castro":

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/community/why-the-chicago-cubs-should-keep-starlin-castro/

 

Lots of love and optimism in that piece

That article makes very flawed use of statistics.

[cl smooth]

You're right, it's pretty one-sided towards Starlin. He left off his many mental lapses where he seems disinterested at times and brushes with the law. How convenient. And while this would be the perfect time for him to step up and be a leader for the young Latin players like Baez, Almora and Soler, I don't think you want anyone to emulate him. Look how Rizzo has stepped up and is the clear leader. It's the front office's job not to bad mouth Starlin to keep his trade value up, but if he is worth so much and so talented-certainly other teams would pay established starting pitching to get him. Theo is playing this right. Go into 2015, play Starlin at SS and check on the development of Addison Russell. When he's ready to be called up, you start offering Castro around.

 

have you forgotten about rizzo's mental lapses in the field? castro's not the only one to do that. if anything, russell would be the backup plan if baez flames out. move castro to second and keep russell at shortshop.

[RammyFanny]

You're right, it's pretty one-sided towards Starlin. He left off his many mental lapses where he seems disinterested at times...

How often do these giant mental lapses occur, once or twice a month? You're willing to ignore the massive amount of awesomeness he has already shown at such a young age and trade him right as he's entering his prime (on a very team-friendly deal) just because he makes a random brain fart very infrequently?

[George Hayduke]

Sorry if this had been posted elsewhere, but FG did a piece on "why the Cubs should keep Starlin Castro":

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/community/why-the-chicago-cubs-should-keep-starlin-castro/

 

Lots of love and optimism in that piece

That article makes very flawed use of statistics.

I thought the same thing.

[imb]

that writer has to be like 15

[Clem Fandango]

It's a community article. Written by a random dude. Very rudimentary analysis. I like how he talks about how he missed 30 games which led to him not getting a career high in home runs, but talks about his fewer errors the same season without mentioning the injury had a partial play in the low number and instead attributed it to him being substantially better, and thus, will be better next year.

[George Hayduke]

It's a community article. Written by a random dude. Very rudimentary analysis. I like how he talks about how he missed 30 games which led to him not getting a career high in home runs, but talks about his fewer errors the same season without mentioning the injury had a partial play in the low number and instead attributed it to him being substantially better, and thus, will be better next year.

I liked how his high BABIP was clear evidence that he's gotten better at putting the ball in play all around the field, or something.

[RammyFanny]

I see something about Anthony Rizzo in some face of baseball thing all over twitter. If there was ever a time to get #tinyfaceofbaseball trending, now would be the time.

[Guest]

There's going to be some special on MLB Network tonight and a big part of it is Cubs related I guess

 

Carrie Muskat @CarrieMuskat · 6h 6 hours ago

Want a peek at tonight's @MLBNetwork show on @ARizzo44, Maddon? Here it is. #Cubs http://atmlb.com/1H6hsLg via @mlb

[Guest]

What about just wanting Russell in the lineup over Coghlan/Denorfia (or whoever is playing LF - not to mention the defensive upgrade involved both at 3B and probably in LF)?

 

If Bryant is acquitting himself okay at 3B, I have my doubts that they'll mess around with his position. Maybe if Russell is pulling a Bryant at Iowa and there's a huge hole in the OF(both Coghlan/Denorfia suck, long term Fowler injury, etc), but in the more likely case the difference from the platoon to Russell for a couple months is not going to be a large enough difference to justify changing Bryant's position. Not that it can't or even won't happen, but we're talking about degrees of certainty about Russell being up this summer.

They might put Russell in the outfield ala Miggy with the Marlins in 03 if he's killing it in AAA.

[Guest]

What about just wanting Russell in the lineup over Coghlan/Denorfia (or whoever is playing LF - not to mention the defensive upgrade involved both at 3B and probably in LF)?

 

If Bryant is acquitting himself okay at 3B, I have my doubts that they'll mess around with his position. Maybe if Russell is pulling a Bryant at Iowa and there's a huge hole in the OF(both Coghlan/Denorfia suck, long term Fowler injury, etc), but in the more likely case the difference from the platoon to Russell for a couple months is not going to be a large enough difference to justify changing Bryant's position. Not that it can't or even won't happen, but we're talking about degrees of certainty about Russell being up this summer.

They might put Russell in the outfield ala Miggy with the Marlins in 03 if he's killing it in AAA.

 

Given everything we know about both, why would they rather have Russell in the OF and Bryant at 3B than the opposite?

[Guest]

What about just wanting Russell in the lineup over Coghlan/Denorfia (or whoever is playing LF - not to mention the defensive upgrade involved both at 3B and probably in LF)?

 

If Bryant is acquitting himself okay at 3B, I have my doubts that they'll mess around with his position. Maybe if Russell is pulling a Bryant at Iowa and there's a huge hole in the OF(both Coghlan/Denorfia suck, long term Fowler injury, etc), but in the more likely case the difference from the platoon to Russell for a couple months is not going to be a large enough difference to justify changing Bryant's position. Not that it can't or even won't happen, but we're talking about degrees of certainty about Russell being up this summer.

They might put Russell in the outfield ala Miggy with the Marlins in 03 if he's killing it in AAA.

 

Given everything we know about both, why would they rather have Russell in the OF and Bryant at 3B than the opposite?

Because Russell is be a better LF than Bryant. If Bryant is doing well there is no reason to move him off of 3rd base in the middle of his rookie season.

[SABR Gamer]

What about just wanting Russell in the lineup over Coghlan/Denorfia (or whoever is playing LF - not to mention the defensive upgrade involved both at 3B and probably in LF)?

 

If Bryant is acquitting himself okay at 3B, I have my doubts that they'll mess around with his position. Maybe if Russell is pulling a Bryant at Iowa and there's a huge hole in the OF(both Coghlan/Denorfia suck, long term Fowler injury, etc), but in the more likely case the difference from the platoon to Russell for a couple months is not going to be a large enough difference to justify changing Bryant's position. Not that it can't or even won't happen, but we're talking about degrees of certainty about Russell being up this summer.

They might put Russell in the outfield ala Miggy with the Marlins in 03 if he's killing it in AAA.

 

Given everything we know about both, why would they rather have Russell in the OF and Bryant at 3B than the opposite?

Because Russell is be a better LF than Bryant. If Bryant is doing well there is no reason to move him off of 3rd base in the middle of his rookie season.

 

Lol there are so many things you don't understand.

 

Russell is also going to be a better 3B than Bryant, and 3B is a more important defensive position than LF.

[Guest]

At least understand what average means. If Bryant is handling 3rd base you don't move him in the middle of a [expletive] season so you can put a guy from AAA in. if the LF tandem stinks who is more likely to make the transition to a new position easier in LF a SS or a 3rd? Edited January 28, 2015 by CubinNY