Random Cubs Musings

[apete6]

Because the White Sox had a better record before everyone stopped caring about baseball and because they got their name in the paper for more stuff this fall/winter(Abreu and Sale for awards, Samardzija, Robertson/Duke, Melky).

 

no, it's because the Score is their flagship station.

 

Uh, no. The Cubs flagship station is WBBM, both of which are controlled by CBS. They have no reason to pump up the Sox and not the Cubs. In fact, they are probably paying more for the Cubs, so, if anything, they would push the Cubs more than the Sox.

[Guest]

Because the White Sox had a better record before everyone stopped caring about baseball and because they got their name in the paper for more stuff this fall/winter(Abreu and Sale for awards, Samardzija, Robertson/Duke, Melky).

 

no, it's because the Score is their flagship station.

 

It's not even close to just people on the Score (wasn't even thinking of any of those guys when I said it and I'm not really sure who thinks what about this on there).

[Cubswin11]

If I had to guess it's part due to Abreu/Sale being in awards discussions and a big part is names they added being more well known by the general/idiot fans, LaRoche/Samardzija/Robertson/Melky on a whole are probably more well known than Lester/Montero/Denorfia/Fowler on a whole and the idiot fan doesn't care or know about the prospects and finally part of it is the LOLCUBS meatballing. Edited January 22, 2015 by Cubswin11

[d_money]

Because the White Sox had a better record before everyone stopped caring about baseball and because they got their name in the paper for more stuff this fall/winter(Abreu and Sale for awards, Samardzija, Robertson/Duke, Melky).

 

no, it's because the Score is their flagship station.

Totally agree. Most of the hosts like to pretend they are unbiased, but it's pretty obvious the majority are Sox fans.

[Guest]

Because the White Sox had a better record before everyone stopped caring about baseball and because they got their name in the paper for more stuff this fall/winter(Abreu and Sale for awards, Samardzija, Robertson/Duke, Melky).

 

no, it's because the Score is their flagship station.

Totally agree. Most of the hosts like to pretend they are unbiased, but it's pretty obvious the majority are Sox fans.

 

Pretty much no.

 

Grobstein is a Cubs fan. Mully is a Sox fan. Hanley is a Cubs fan (and a pitiful sounding one most of the time). Neither Spiegel or Mannely are local so I doubt they have any deep seated allegiances. Boers is a Cubs fan, and Bernstein, while being a Sox fan, seems to worship the ground Theo walks on and does nothing but heap praise on the Cubs and defend them at every turn.

 

I'm ashamed of this post.

[jersey cubs fan]

it feels shame?

[d_money]

Because the White Sox had a better record before everyone stopped caring about baseball and because they got their name in the paper for more stuff this fall/winter(Abreu and Sale for awards, Samardzija, Robertson/Duke, Melky).

 

no, it's because the Score is their flagship station.

Totally agree. Most of the hosts like to pretend they are unbiased, but it's pretty obvious the majority are Sox fans.

 

Pretty much no.

 

Grobstein is a Cubs fan. Mully is a Sox fan. Hanley is a Cubs fan (and a pitiful sounding one most of the time). Neither Spiegel or Mannely are local so I doubt they have any deep seated allegiances. Boers is a Cubs fan, and Bernstein, while being a Sox fan, seems to worship the ground Theo walks on and does nothing but heap praise on the Cubs and defend them at every turn.

 

I'm ashamed of this post.

It is a little embarrassing for Bernstein to gush over the moves by Theo, especially because he is such a Sox fan at heart.

[Sammy Sofa]

They're probably picking the White Sox because it's not crazy, it riles up the Cubs meatballs (ye olde shock jock "they listen more if they're pissed off" practice) and at the end of the season nobody but pedantic message board nerds will give a fat rat's ass what radio show host picked who to win.

[Guest]

ZiPS depth chart

 

 

Szymborski noted later that Soler's projection is low because he's only getting about a half season's worth of PAs, so if you think he'll be around the full season it's not unreasonable to view him as a 2 win projection. The depth chart also excludes Bryant, but Szymborski also said in a different tweet that he's got the best projection of any rookie(it was unclear if that was only this year or not). Not sure if it's just bearish on Alcantara or burying him as 2B only on the depth chart.

 

EDIT: Summing up the wins on the depth chart is flawed, but until there's a more formal projected ZiPS standings, that puts the Cubs 5th in the NL with 3 NL teams to go(Pittsburgh, Cincinnati, Philadelphia), they're behind the Dodgers, Cardinals, Nationals, and....Brewers. Although adding Bryant and subtracting Gallardo probably swaps them in order, it's pretty close.

[Hairyducked Idiot]

It's really hard to have a bad team with Lester and Rizzo, so long as you don't incompetently fill out the rest.

[Hairyducked Idiot]

That's kinda funny about the Brewers, because if you look at their depth chart by Steamer:

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/depthcharts.aspx?position=ALL&teamid=23

 

They get absolutely *nothing* outside of the first string (8 hitters, 5 SP, 3 RP). Gerardo Parra is the only player outside of those 16 that projects to be even a little bit useful. The Cubs pick up a couple of wins easily with their second and third tiers.

[Clem Fandango]

Szymborski noted later that Soler's projection is low because he's only getting about a half season's worth of PAs, so if you think he'll be around the full season it's not unreasonable to view him as a 2 win projection.

 

I think it's very unreasonable to think he'll be worth only 2 wins, because he's he's actually going to be worth infinity WAR and then Marvel will make him his own superhero in the movie as a result and he'll stop Thanos with his incredible ability to mash dongs.

[imb]

I think that 2 win projection was like, for may or something

[Guest]

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/2015-zips-projections-chicago-cubs/

 

More specific WAR values:

 

Bryant: 4.3 - #1 comp is Longoria

Rizzo: 4.1

Castro: 3.4

Alcantara: 2.4 (why in the world isn't he on the depth chart then?)

Montero: 2.4

Baez: 2.2

Fowler 2.1

Russell: 1.9 in 400 PA

 

Lester: 4.6

Hendricks: 2.7 in 165 IP

Arrieta: 2.3 in 155 IP (#1 comp: Kip Wells)

Hammel: 1.7 in 140 IP

 

Wood: 1.1 in 175 IP

Wada: 1.0 in 105 IP

Doubront: 1.0 in 130 IP

Jaxon: 0.1 in 146 IP

Turner: -0.3 in 135 IP

[KingCubsFan]

Szymborski noted later that Soler's projection is low because he's only getting about a half season's worth of PAs, so if you think he'll be around the full season it's not unreasonable to view him as a 2 win projection.

 

http://i129.photobucket.com/albums/p228/irish1289/xzibit.jpg

[sneakypower]

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/2015-zips-projections-chicago-cubs/

 

More specific WAR values:

 

Bryant: 4.3 - #1 comp is Longoria

Rizzo: 4.1

Castro: 3.4

Alcantara: 2.4 (why in the world isn't he on the depth chart then?)

Montero: 2.4

Baez: 2.2

Fowler 2.1

Russell: 1.9 in 400 PA

oh my.

[Clem Fandango]

So do people actually think Russell is getting called up early this year? I've always been under the impression he'll be, at most, a September callup.

[Guest]

So do people actually think Russell is getting called up early this year? I've always been under the impression he'll be, at most, a September callup.

What's your projection for Baez?

[Sammy Sofa]

He could be; it all depends on how the team does.

[Guest]

So do people actually think Russell is getting called up early this year? I've always been under the impression he'll be, at most, a September callup.

 

I think the safe bet is that he's a September call up at best, but there's a lot of moving pieces. Number 1 is his performance at Iowa, if he's got a .900+ OPS at the all-star break there's going to be some pressure to put him on the MLB roster. After that it depends a bit on MLB need and how the team is doing in the standings. Bryant's 3B defense and the bats of Baez, Alcantara, and to a lesser extent La Stella will all dictate that. I doubt they'll call Russell up before September if he's not going to be playing every day, so he'd need an opening, or one to be created for him with a deadline deal.

[Him]

So do people actually think Russell is getting called up early this year? I've always been under the impression he'll be, at most, a September callup.

 

I think the safe bet is that he's a September call up at best, but there's a lot of moving pieces. Number 1 is his performance at Iowa, if he's got a .900+ OPS at the all-star break there's going to be some pressure to put him on the MLB roster. After that it depends a bit on MLB need and how the team is doing in the standings. Bryant's 3B defense and the bats of Baez, Alcantara, and to a lesser extent La Stella will all dictate that. I doubt they'll call Russell up before September if he's not going to be playing every day, so he'd need an opening, or one to be created for him with a deadline deal.

 

Or if we trade Russell mid-season for an upgrade elsewhere.

[SABR Gamer]

So do people actually think Russell is getting called up early this year? I've always been under the impression he'll be, at most, a September callup.

 

I think the safe bet is that he's a September call up at best, but there's a lot of moving pieces. Number 1 is his performance at Iowa, if he's got a .900+ OPS at the all-star break there's going to be some pressure to put him on the MLB roster. After that it depends a bit on MLB need and how the team is doing in the standings. Bryant's 3B defense and the bats of Baez, Alcantara, and to a lesser extent La Stella will all dictate that. I doubt they'll call Russell up before September if he's not going to be playing every day, so he'd need an opening, or one to be created for him with a deadline deal.

 

Or if we trade Russell mid-season for an upgrade elsewhere.

 

Do not trade Russell.

[Guest]

So do people actually think Russell is getting called up early this year? I've always been under the impression he'll be, at most, a September callup.

 

Early? No. I expect June/July if things are going well in AAA right off the bat. August if he starts off slowish.

[Guest]

So do people actually think Russell is getting called up early this year? I've always been under the impression he'll be, at most, a September callup.

 

I think the safe bet is that he's a September call up at best, but there's a lot of moving pieces. Number 1 is his performance at Iowa, if he's got a .900+ OPS at the all-star break there's going to be some pressure to put him on the MLB roster. After that it depends a bit on MLB need and how the team is doing in the standings. Bryant's 3B defense and the bats of Baez, Alcantara, and to a lesser extent La Stella will all dictate that. I doubt they'll call Russell up before September if he's not going to be playing every day, so he'd need an opening, or one to be created for him with a deadline deal.

 

Sure, if everyone is playing well to where there is no place an attempted jolt could be used, I could see it taking longer, but I don't think all those guys will be playing well.

[Guest]

So do people actually think Russell is getting called up early this year? I've always been under the impression he'll be, at most, a September callup.

 

I think the safe bet is that he's a September call up at best, but there's a lot of moving pieces. Number 1 is his performance at Iowa, if he's got a .900+ OPS at the all-star break there's going to be some pressure to put him on the MLB roster. After that it depends a bit on MLB need and how the team is doing in the standings. Bryant's 3B defense and the bats of Baez, Alcantara, and to a lesser extent La Stella will all dictate that. I doubt they'll call Russell up before September if he's not going to be playing every day, so he'd need an opening, or one to be created for him with a deadline deal.

 

Sure, if everyone is playing well to where there is no place an attempted jolt could be used, I could see it taking longer, but I don't think all those guys will be playing well.

 

 

It's not so much an 'all of those guys playing well' thing as 'Bryant not killing himself playing 3B and any one of Baez, Alcantara or (probably) La Stella hitting well'. There's probably other potential situations too(the most obvious I can think of is Alcantara to CF/LF to replace the platoon), but you get the idea that it doesn't take 10 dominoes falling into place to keep Russell down past the all-star break.