Random Cubs Musings

[Guest]

At least 60-59 would be entertaining and watchable, though.

 

true

 

Especially if Javy goes all Javy and is up in maybe August. Alcantara could possibly hit his way up too.

 

Maybe Hendricks?

 

If this team plays like a .500 team and adds some of those intriguing story lines, this year could be interesting to watch longer than any since like 09.

[Soul]

Looks like the Cubs are the most divergent pythag team in the majors right now.

 

I should be more optimistic than I currently am.

 

Positives:

Samardzija, Castro, Rizzo, Hammel, Jackson lately, pythag. record.

 

If you told me in March that they would be outscoring their opponent with substantial improvements from Castro and Rizzo, I would've be pleased. Yet, I'm not.

 

Probably because if they go 60-59 the rest of the way (which will be tough considering the likelihood of dealing away their best pitcher(s)), they will finish 76-86.

If we go 33-31 or so through July 30th, do we necessarily trade Shark?

 

My belief is, he's gone.

[Hairyducked Idiot]

He'll be gone.

 

We had like a long 32-29 stretch starting about now last year, still dealt everyone.

[UK1679666180]

If we go 33-31 or so through July 30th, do we necessarily trade Shark?

 

Yes, they likely wouldn't pay him full market value/extend his contract and they won't acquire the pieces to make this team a contender even in a bad division.

[ConstableRabbit]

He'll be gone.

 

We had like a long 32-29 stretch starting about now last year, still dealt everyone.

Really? When was that? I'm having a hard time finding any downloadable past schedules.

[sneakypower]

they've undeniably improved after a sort of disastrous April (the pitching staff leads MLB in May fWAR)

 

April:

offense - .291 wOBA, 0.85 WAR/650 PA

pitching - 1.70 WAR / 200 IP

 

May:

offense - .308 wOBA, 1.60 WAR/650 PA

pitching - 4.40 WAR / 200 IP

 

starters have given up just 3 HR in all of May (avg is 12)

[jersey cubs fan]

At least 60-59 would be entertaining and watchable, though.

 

true

 

Especially if Javy goes all Javy and is up in maybe August. Alcantara could possibly hit his way up too.

 

Maybe Hendricks?

 

If this team plays like a .500 team and adds some of those intriguing story lines, this year could be interesting to watch longer than any since like 09.

 

I cannot envision any way that Javy is on this year's team.

[Guest]

A month ago I thought 0% chance Samardzija wasn't traded. Now I think it's maybe like 5% that they become convinced that he is taking the next step and are willing to pay him closer to what he wants.

[Hairyducked Idiot]

He'll be gone.

 

We had like a long 32-29 stretch starting about now last year, still dealt everyone.

Really? When was that? I'm having a hard time finding any downloadable past schedules.

 

Even better.

 

May 26 to July 28 30-25.

[Guest]

At least 60-59 would be entertaining and watchable, though.

 

true

 

Especially if Javy goes all Javy and is up in maybe August. Alcantara could possibly hit his way up too.

 

Maybe Hendricks?

 

If this team plays like a .500 team and adds some of those intriguing story lines, this year could be interesting to watch longer than any since like 09.

 

I cannot envision any way that Javy is on this year's team.

 

If he destroys AAA for the next 2-2.5 months, I think you call him up and let him take his MLB lumps this year.

[ConstableRabbit]

He'll be gone.

 

We had like a long 32-29 stretch starting about now last year, still dealt everyone.

Really? When was that? I'm having a hard time finding any downloadable past schedules.

 

Even better.

 

May 26 to July 28 30-25.

Interesting. Only 7 under .500, but like 10 games back in the WC.

 

I wonder what the FOs "magic number" is to buy vs. sell.

[jersey cubs fan]

If he destroys AAA for the next 2-2.5 months, I think you call him up and let him take his MLB lumps this year.

 

I think this front office considers it a sort of blessing that Javy started slowly, both justifying their decision not to bring him up this spring and giving them plenty of leeway to wait as long as possible to bring him up. And I believe they will take the opportunity to delay his clock until next summer.

[Guest]

If he destroys AAA for the next 2-2.5 months, I think you call him up and let him take his MLB lumps this year.

 

I think this front office considers it a sort of blessing that Javy started slowly, both justifying their decision not to bring him up this spring and giving them plenty of leeway to wait as long as possible to bring him up. And I believe they will take the opportunity to delay his clock until next summer.

I think it does give them leeway to pass the super 2 date this year.

 

I don't think they planned or hoped to wait til next year nor do I think they'd delay his development to do so if he's ready.

[Tyrant]

Looks like the Cubs are the most divergent pythag team in the majors right now.

 

I should be more optimistic than I currently am.

 

Positives:

Samardzija, Castro, Rizzo, Hammel, Jackson lately, pythag. record.

 

If you told me in March that they would be outscoring their opponent with substantial improvements from Castro and Rizzo, I would've be pleased. Yet, I'm not.

 

Probably because if they go 60-59 the rest of the way (which will be tough considering the likelihood of dealing away their best pitcher(s)), they will finish 76-86.

 

That's better than I'd have expected before the season. Which doesn't really mean much.

[jersey cubs fan]

If he destroys AAA for the next 2-2.5 months, I think you call him up and let him take his MLB lumps this year.

 

I think this front office considers it a sort of blessing that Javy started slowly, both justifying their decision not to bring him up this spring and giving them plenty of leeway to wait as long as possible to bring him up. And I believe they will take the opportunity to delay his clock until next summer.

I think it does give them leeway to pass the super 2 date this year.

 

I don't think they planned or hoped to wait til next year nor do I think they'd delay his development to do so if he's ready.

 

He only had 54 games and 240 PA in AA. The only level where he has approached a full season of time has been A+. I am not sure how anybody could claim that not bringing him up this year would somehow be "delaying his development".

[Guest]

My point is that if they think he is ready for MLB in July or August, I don't think they'd prefer to wait until weeks/months into next year (and delay his development at the major league level) just to extend his clock yet another year. Especially not if this team plays like a competitive team as this year goes on (and Castro and Rizzo continue to be great).

 

The sooner he gets his struggles out of the way, the sooner he can help the MLB team win games.

 

I might be wrong, but what you're saying makes it sound to me like you think that going into this year, they'd have preferred that he not make his way to the majors until 2015 so that they can get that extra year. I don't think that's true at all.

[Hairyducked Idiot]

He's not going to be ready in July or August. It's moo.

[Guest]

He's not going to be ready in July or August. It's moo.

 

This is what I like out of you. More plz.

[Guest]

I've been consistent...this team isn't nearly as bad as their record or the consensus believes.

 

btw - it would do great things for Shark's value to shut out the Yankees today.

[Hairyducked Idiot]

He's not going to be ready in July or August. It's moo.

 

This is what I like out of you. More plz.

 

Maybe he can be ready for AAA by August.

[jersey cubs fan]

My point is that if they think he is ready for MLB in July or August, I don't think they'd prefer to wait until weeks/months into next year (and delay his development at the major league level) just to extend his clock yet another year. Especially not if this team plays like a competitive team as this year goes on (and Castro and Rizzo continue to be great).

 

The sooner he gets his struggles out of the way, the sooner he can help the MLB team win games.

 

I might be wrong, but what you're saying makes it sound to me like you think that going into this year, they'd have preferred that he not make his way to the majors until 2015 so that they can get that extra year. I don't think that's true at all.

To be clear, that is exactly what I thought going into the year.

 

"Thinking he is ready" is a nebulous concept. It is almost June and his season has been terrible so far. I don't see how a great month or two will suddenly convince anybody that he has to be in the majors and is just wasting his time in AAA.

[Soul]

Who are the likely callups this year to be excited about? Alcantara and Hendricks?

[Guest]

Who are the likely callups this year to be excited about? Alcantara and Hendricks?

 

Alcantara might come up in September. Hendricks whenever a pitcher is traded (hopefully they don't just plus Villanueva in the rotation instead).

 

I'd add Vizcaino to your list.

[Guest]

A month ago I thought 0% chance Samardzija wasn't traded. Now I think it's maybe like 5% that they become convinced that he is taking the next step and are willing to pay him closer to what he wants.

 

I've always thought the front office is more interested in extending Shark than the public sentiment. I don't think they've been close thus far because the FO wasn't willing to pay a pitcher aspirationally(e.g. Shark hasn't exceeded 3 wins, they aren't going to extend him like he's a 4 win guy). Now that he's showing an ability to pitch at that level(~5 fWAR atm), it depends on how much the Cubs willingness to pay him has risen, how much Samardzija's asking price has risen, and how willing Samardzija is to sign a deal with the Cubs franchise. I think the start of the season has brought things closer on the first two, and a run of competitive play can only help with the 3rd. Whether that's enough to make a deal happen I don't know, but I could definitely see it being enough for them to wait until the offseason to decide on Shark(especially if the trade offers aren't fantastic).

[KingCubsFan]

My point is that if they think he is ready for MLB in July or August, I don't think they'd prefer to wait until weeks/months into next year (and delay his development at the major league level) just to extend his clock yet another year. Especially not if this team plays like a competitive team as this year goes on (and Castro and Rizzo continue to be great).

 

The sooner he gets his struggles out of the way, the sooner he can help the MLB team win games.

 

I might be wrong, but what you're saying makes it sound to me like you think that going into this year, they'd have preferred that he not make his way to the majors until 2015 so that they can get that extra year. I don't think that's true at all.

To be clear, that is exactly what I thought going into the year.

 

"Thinking he is ready" is a nebulous concept. It is almost June and his season has been terrible so far. I don't see how a great month or two will suddenly convince anybody that he has to be in the majors and is just wasting his time in AAA.

It would fit in with his development path so far though. Struggles for two months, figures something out, and then destroys a league for 1.5-2 months. My guess is that he'll be up in September, unless he has an absolutely terrible year in AAA.