NCAA Mock Tourney Selection 2013

[abuck1220]

my biggest concerns are the MVC (scared uni or illinois st or some random will win because i don't think either creighton or wich st are that good) and the SEC (just a million teams that are decent/mediocre and only two tournament locks...just numbers-wise it seems like the field would be a decent pick).

[abuck1220]

Topic for discussion: very underwhelmed with both Creighton and Wichita St.'s resumes.

I think I had Creighton as a lock, but agreed that neither one is really all that impressive.

Creighton has neutral site wins over Wisconsin and Arizona State, and a road win at Cal, which is all pretty impressive and should push them ahead of most of the other bubble teams in discussion.

 

Wichita State has a road win at VCU and neutral court win over Iowa. Not as impressive, and more borderline. The main concern for the bubble teams would be if neither of those teams won the conference tourney, though.

 

my biggest complaints with those teams are their bad losses in conference. usually teams that get at-large consideration from the valley steam roll through it.

[Vanilla Ice]

I think Creighton should make it, but....

 

Creighton

Good wins: vs. Wisconsin (5 seed on matrix), vs. California (10 seed), vs. Wichita St. (10 seed), Akron (13 seed)

Bad losses: @ Drake (146 RPI, 127 KP), vs. Illinois State (121 RPI, 61 KP), @ Indiana State (77 RPI, 98 KP), @ UNI (75 RPI, 71 KP)

 

Iowa St.

Good wins: vs. Kansas St. (3 seed on matrix), vs. Okla St. (5 seed), vs. Oklahoma (10 seed)

Bad losses: @Texas Tech (217 RPI, 254 KP), @Texas (119 RPI, 93 KP), Iowa? (78 RPI, 31 KP)

 

Don't see enough of a difference between those two to account for the fact that Creighton largely being considered a lock and Iowa St. is still right on the bubble.

[Thed Hoyerstein]

Topic for discussion: very underwhelmed with both Creighton and Wichita St.'s resumes.

I think I had Creighton as a lock, but agreed that neither one is really all that impressive.

Creighton has neutral site wins over Wisconsin and Arizona State, and a road win at Cal, which is all pretty impressive and should push them ahead of most of the other bubble teams in discussion.

 

Wichita State has a road win at VCU and neutral court win over Iowa. Not as impressive, and more borderline. The main concern for the bubble teams would be if neither of those teams won the conference tourney, though.

 

my biggest complaints with those teams are their bad losses in conference. usually teams that get at-large consideration from the valley steam roll through it.

 

While both Creighton and Wichita State have mediocre resumes, I can't recall one bubble team, or even one team solidly in the 8-9 seed line, that hasn't had a couple of bad losses this year.

 

Additionally, The Valley is fairly strongish (relatively speaking) this year and combined with one of the weakest bubbles in recent memory, creates two teams who built up good resumes before hitting a rough February patch. Creighton was also helped that the de facto MVC regular season title game ( vs. Wichita State) last Saturday was on ESPN 2 and that they shot 70% overall from the field and Doug McDermott dropped 41 against a pretty good defensive team.

[bukie]

I'd argue that the MVC's strength is right about even with the A-10's strength this year overall, although the A-10 has more good and bad teams, just on account of having more teams. Definitely a good step below the second tier of conferences, though (ACC, MWC, B12, P12, SEC).

 

EDIT: According to log5 on Pomeroy's data, the chances that neither Creighton or Wichita State win the MVC tourney are about 27%.

[bukie]

Only one decent conference tourney upset yesterday, as High Point, the #1 seed for their division in the Big South, lost in the quarters. That just makes Charleston Southern that much more likely to win the conference tournament (and still end up as a 16 seed). Three more conferences start tourneys today:

 

-- MAAC (KP #100 Iona is a 21.8% favorite, despite being the 4 seed. Really, it's a free for all in this one)

-- Southern (KP #63 Davidson is a 67.8% favorite)

-- Sun Belt (KP #28 Middle Tennessee is a 75.6% favorite)

 

Of these, the only potential bid thief is Middle Tennessee, who destroyed their conference and has no really bad losses to speak of (or really good wins, aside from Ole Miss).

[SouthSideRyan]

I keep forgetting that Iowa State lost to TT, and am assuming them as a lock in my head. My mind is going to be fucked when I put my names to paper.

[bukie]

Loyola Marymount, which had won all of 1 game this calendar year, has now won 3 games in the WCC Tourney and gets to play Gonzaga tonight. The other WCC quarter was also an upset, so St. Mary's and Gonzaga each have a better than 90% chance of making the finals in the WCC.

 

Princeton lost its first of 3 final road games, while Harvard beat Columbia at home, so the Ivy standings are basically tied though Princeton has an additional game to play.

 

Creighton vs Indiana State (Creighton 81%) and Wichita State vs Illinois State (Wichita State 60%) are the MVC semifinals today.

 

Two auto bids are decided today:

#1 Belmont vs #3 Murray State (Belmont 86%) in the OVC finals.

#1 Mercer vs #2 Florida Gulf Coast (Mercer 69%) in the A-Sun finals.

 

Three more conference tourneys start today:

-- America East (KP #56 Stony Brook is a 62.0% favorite)

-- CAA (KP #170 Northeastern is a 24.5% favorite...yeesh, what happened to the CAA this year? They're going to get a 16 seed)

-- Summit (KP #71 North Dakota State is a 49.6% favorite despite being the 3 seed)

[bukie]

Florida Gulf Coast beat the odds and won the Atlantic Sun bid. Other than today, their best win was over Miami (yes, that one).

[abuck1220]

Florida Gulf Coast beat the odds and won the Atlantic Sun bid. Other than today, their best win was over Miami (yes, that one).

 

helps iowa st since it jumped FGC into the top 100.

[bukie]

Creighton not messing around today either. Just Doug McDermott has outscored Indiana State, and he doesn't even have half Creighton's points.

[bukie]

Late afternoon results:

-- Harvard beat Cornell and Princeton lost to Brown so Harvard gets the Ivy auto bid without having to wait until Thursday.

-- Wichita State joins Creighton in the MVC finals, so there surprisingly won't be a bid stolen in the MVC this year.

-- All the other 1 seeds in conference tourneys have won so far.

-- Belmont leads Murray State 41-38 midway through the second half for the OVC bid.

[bukie]

Belmont now trails Murray State 60-56 with just over a minute to play. Could the OVC possibly get 2 bids this season? The MAAC did it last year...

[bukie]

Belmont comes back to win in OT and now 3 bids are spoken for.

[bukie]

Four buzzer beaters so far in the Horizon tournament, including both semis today. Top seed Valpo advances to face 3 seed Wright State in the finals.

[bukie]

Two more bids up for grabs today:

#1 Creighton vs #2 Wichita State (Creighton 60%) in the MVC finals.

#1S Charleston Southern vs #5N Liberty (Charleston Southern 72%) in the Big South finals.

[UMFan83]

Two more bids up for grabs today:

#1 Creighton vs #2 Wichita State (Creighton 60%) in the MVC finals.

#1S Charleston Southern vs #5N Liberty (Charleston Southern 72%) in the Big South finals.

 

Won't steal any bids but I want to see if Liberty with its 14-20 record can crash the tourney with a win today. I think they were 6-10 in the Big South conference.

 

Whoever wins is going to be a 16 seed play in

[UMFan83]

And Liberty wins and might have the worst RPI to ever make the tourney.

[Vanilla Ice]

Down goes Middle Tennessee State in the Sun Belt semis

[abuck1220]

Down goes Middle Tennessee State in the Sun Belt semis

 

only one top 100 win for them (ole miss). hard to see them getting an at large bid.

[bukie]

Down goes Middle Tennessee State in the Sun Belt semis

 

only one top 100 win for them (ole miss). hard to see them getting an at large bid.

They have a better resume than Iona did last year, and I could see the committee rewarding a dominant regular season champ over a middling major especially with how weak the bubble has looked this year.

 

EDIT: Particularly, for example, Ole Miss.

[Exile on Waveland]

Down goes Middle Tennessee State in the Sun Belt semis

 

only one top 100 win for them (ole miss). hard to see them getting an at large bid.

They have a better resume than Iona did last year, and I could see the committee rewarding a dominant regular season champ over a middling major especially with how weak the bubble has looked this year.

 

I think they'll make it. No real logic behind that other than the committee does seem to like to reward such teams.

[abuck1220]

according to palm, no team with fewer than 3 top 100 wins has made it.

[abuck1220]

Down goes Middle Tennessee State in the Sun Belt semis

 

only one top 100 win for them (ole miss). hard to see them getting an at large bid.

They have a better resume than Iona did last year, and I could see the committee rewarding a dominant regular season champ over a middling major especially with how weak the bubble has looked this year.

 

EDIT: Particularly, for example, Ole Miss.

 

i hate all the SEC bubble teams. most of their top 100 wins are against each other...just took turns beating themselves up.

[bukie]

I think there are 5 finals today and 5 new conference tourneys starting today, but I'll have to do writeups on it when I'm less busy.