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2014 Draft Discussion

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Kiley McDaniel's top 52: http://sbb.scout.com/2/1376626.html

 

Tier One (1-4)

 

Description: This top tier has separated itself through strong summers and early spring performances. Rodon's velocity is down now (90-93, touching 94 mph) as it was at this time last year, while Hoffman's season debut was as good as his breakout Cape performance. I've been trumpeting Hoffman's upside since I saw him on the Cape and said there's a real chance he's Justin Verlander; now the track record is starting to accumulate. Kolek was in the high-90's in his debut while Turner was even better in his opening weekend. More than one scout I talked to said he thinks Turner still has a real shot to go ahead of Rodon; the internet perception of the slam dunk-ness of the order of these four is wildly overstated, particularly given how early it is.

 

Carlos Rodon, LHP, North Carolina State

Jeff Hoffman, RHP, East Carolina

Trea Turner, SS, North Carolina State

Tyler Kolek, RHP, Shepherd HS (TX), TCU commit

 

Frank Pilierie seems to concur with Kiley on Rodon not being a unanimous 1.1 pick:

 

@FPilierePG: Now you can be mad at Kiley and not me. Love it RT @kileymcd Needs to be said: the Rodon as superman, savior & 1-1 lock talk is overheated

 

Kiley also thinks that Michael Gettys (not Alex Jackson or Jacob Gatewood) has the best chance of the prospects in tier 2 to jump in to tier 1:

 

Gettys is the wildcard: the rest of this group can only move down from here but if scouts are convinced Gettys can hit, he has the upside to move to tier one
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Hairyducked Idiot

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I want the best player available. It doesn't matter if it's a super young guy like Kolek or a extremely polished guy like Nola.

 

That's axiomatic.

 

But a HS pitcher's risk factor means he has to be incredibly talented to be BPA.

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@CrawfordChrisV: Tomorrow's game between N.C. State and Appalachian State will be on ESPN3 at 3:00 EST.

 

Also tomorrow, Jeff Hoffman vs Virginia's Nathan Kirby and that fantastic Virginia offense. Kirby is a likely high first rounder in 2015.

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@CrawfordChrisV: Tomorrow's game between N.C. State and Appalachian State will be on ESPN3 at 3:00 EST.

 

Also tomorrow, Jeff Hoffman vs Virginia's Nathan Kirby and that fantastic Virginia offense. Kirby is a likely high first rounder in 2015.

 

This is probably more a discussion for the college thread, but I was actually fairly surprised that O'Connor decided to shift his rotation order up after 1 week. I mean, admittedly, the rotation is probably in the "correct" order, in terms of talent (Kirby/Sborz/Waddell - although Waddell was solidly in the 90's and could end up being a better pro prospect than initially thought if he develops).

 

I'm going to be fascinated with UVA's approach against Hoffman. As good as Hoffman looked last week, I wonder if they have the UVA bats be a bit more aggressive than normal to try and jump on some pitches. I might be completely off on this, but I think Gosselin jumped on an early pitch against Strasburg way back to get that tilt going.

 

Either way, going to be a fun game to follow.

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@keithlaw: ECU RHP Jeff Hoffman was 94-96 in the first, got the last out on a 90 mph change

 

@NathanRode: Just saw my first inning of RHP Jeff Hoffman. Wow. 95-97 with life. 88-89 CH with fade. OF Mike Papi squared him up for long F9. #mlbdraft

 

@NathanRode: Brandon Downes just deposited a 96 mph FB from Hoffman into the seats in LC. #mlbdraft

 

@CrawfordChrisV: Brandon Downes takes Hoffman deep. Downes is very talented, but hasn't been able to show much consistency. Potential top 100 guy.

 

@CrawfordChrisV: Brandon Downes takes Hoffman deep. Downes is very talented, but hasn't been able to show much consistency. Potential top 100 guy.

 

@Clint_BA: Thru 2 Jeff Hoffman 94- 97. Good feel for 87-90 CH against LH heavy lineup. 2 SO. One base runner allowed. HR by Brandon Downes

 

@NathanRode: Papi squares up Hoffman again. This time he gets an RBI 2B off a 94 FB. #mlbdraft

 

I'm a big Papi fan. Would love him as the Cubs 2nd or 3rd rounder, if he can play OF.

 

@Clint_BA: UVA CF Brandon Downes with his 2nd HR of game on 85 mph CH

 

@kileymcd: This Brandon Downes thing isn't a fluke. I had the UVA CF as a 3rd rounder only due to raw bat in games. 1st round tools.

 

@CrawfordChrisV: Hoffman done for the day, 6.2 IP, 5 H, 3 ER, 3 BB, 6 K's. Guessing that Keith guy will have a report for you guys this weekend or so.
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I'm a big Papi fan.

Boy, context is everything.

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Give Kirby another year to polish things up and it really wouldn't surprise me if he's a top 15-20 type pick. He's got that type of talent.

 

I keep saying this (and feeling ludicrous when I say it), but if Downes can show improvement on his approach, cuts his K's down a bit, maybe walks a bit more ... I really wouldn't be shocked if he challenged Fisher to be top UVA player off the board this year. He's got that type of Brett Jackson-esque talent, but he also has a bit of Brett Jackson approach issues to be concerned with (although my gut feeling is that it isn't as bad as Jackson's (and that it isn't as bad as Jarrett Parker's).) To be clear, I don't think he will beat out Fisher, if I had to make a guess now, but the talent is there. Good power ... maybe 55-60.

 

Papi, I think, can play a decent LF. Where the Cubs pick in the 2nd, I think he might be a tad high there, although he might not be on the board in the 3rd. Tough to tell at this early stage.

 

As for Hoffman, looks like he did pretty dang good. Getting beat by Downes for 2 home runs ... not anything to hang his hat about, that's for sure. This UVA lineup is one of the best in baseball. I know there are comps (was it BA?) to that Miami lineup with Alonso, Weeks, Tekotte, and so forth ... I'm not sure this lineup isn't better than that one (in the college game, and in terms of pro potential).

 

Edit: Really goes in the college thread, but I still shake my head that UVA's Saturday starter 2 seasons ago is now the weekday starter, and that their Sunday starter last year is now the closer, and talent wise, it's the right decision (to make this draft related ... both Lewicki and Howard could go in the top 10 rounds as arms ... and Howard could go in the top 10 as a bat ... actually, Cubs-wise, I wouldn't mind Artie Lewicki as a, say, cheaper 8th-10th round pick type. Nice power arm to gamble on).

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@jimshonerdBA Rodon up to 94 but leaving some balls over the plate. App scores twice on E6, bunt single, SAC and 2-rbi single by Jaylin Davis.

 

@jimshonerdBA Rodon gets a couple Ks in the 5th, one on the first real good backfoot slider to a RHH I've seen today. Usually a pitch he likes going to.

 

‏@jimshonerdBA As he is wont to do, Rodon getting stronger as the game goes. After a couple innings of 90-91, was back up to 93-94 in the 6th. #Pack9

 

@jimshonerdBA Has also started locating his slider down more consistently

 

@jimshonerdBA This after Turner's speed helped induce a throwing error on App's 3b on a high chopper, allowing Turner to reach 2nd.

 

@jimshonerdBA Quick 7th for Rodon. Certainly looks like he could go the distance if they'll let him. #mlbdraft

 

@jimshonerdBA Are you kidding, Jaylin Davis? He just belted a 3-run shot off Rodon, 2nd year in a row he's taken him deep. Now 6-5, T8. #mlbdraft

 

@jimshonerdBA Rodon does finish the 8th, getting his 9th K and peaking at 92. #MLBDraft

 

@NCStateBaseball: #Thomas in to close. Final line on #Rodon: 8 IP, 5 H, 5 R, 3 ER, 2 BB, 9 K

 

@jnorris427 After tonight, Carlos Rodon said he's "not even close" to where we wants to be once conference play opens. #mlbdraft
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A guy with a lot of helium right now is Ole Miss RHP Chris Ellis. He had a late season break out coming out of the bullpen at the Cape and the stuff and results have carried over through his first two starts this season. Hasn't given up a run yet and threw a CG shutout today. Kiley McDaniel already has him slotted in behind Rodon, Hoffman and Brandon Finnegan in a group with Tyler Beede, Luke Weaver, Erick Fedde and Aaron Nola.

 

@FPilierePG: #OleMiss righty Chris Ellis tossed a complete game shutout tonight. Yet to surrender a run this season. I'll say it again - he's very good
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@KendallRogersPG: #Indiana C Kyle Schwarber just put three-run bomb about 40-feet past the 379 marker and up. Absolute no doubter. Wow. #mlbdraft
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Tangled Up in Plaid

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A guy with a lot of helium right now is Ole Miss RHP Chris Ellis. He had a late season break out coming out of the bullpen at the Cape and the stuff and results have carried over through his first two starts this season. Hasn't given up a run yet and threw a CG shutout today. Kiley McDaniel already has him slotted in behind Rodon, Hoffman and Brandon Finnegan in a group with Tyler Beede, Luke Weaver, Erick Fedde and Aaron Nola.

 

@FPilierePG: #OleMiss righty Chris Ellis tossed a complete game shutout tonight. Yet to surrender a run this season. I'll say it again - he's very good

 

Beede had an impressive 11-1 K-BB in 6 innings today.

http://i.imgur.com/m297qaY.gif

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I'm a big Papi fan.

Boy, context is everything.

 

Glad someone noticed that. Still disappointed no one made note of my addition to Nick Gordon's HS in the OP of this thread.

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