2014 Draft Discussion

[SouthSideRyan]

If Aiken does indeed lose his eligibility, this is kind of thing that could absolutely ruin them in drafts for the next decade. All the games that were played and costing the kid his ability to go to college would be well in excess of the Phillies' ordeal in my eyes.

 

Disagree, the Phillies were malicious, the Astros took a hardline and lost

[Guest]

If Aiken does indeed lose his eligibility, this is kind of thing that could absolutely ruin them in drafts for the next decade. All the games that were played and costing the kid his ability to go to college would be well in excess of the Phillies' ordeal in my eyes.

 

Disagree, the Phillies were malicious, the Astros took a hardline and lost

He's referring to the Astros throwing Aiken under the bus after failing to sign him by mentioning Close.

[Tryptamine]

Nix has filed a grievance based on his verbal agreement with the Astros. Things are looking bad in Houston.

 

Jeff Passan ✔ @JeffPassan

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Scary Astros possibility: If Nix wins grievance to pay agreed-upon $1.5M, Houston 17% over bonus pool, would forfeit next two 1st-rd picks.

5:11 PM - 18 Jul 2014

[SouthSideRyan]

If Aiken does indeed lose his eligibility, this is kind of thing that could absolutely ruin them in drafts for the next decade. All the games that were played and costing the kid his ability to go to college would be well in excess of the Phillies' ordeal in my eyes.

 

Disagree, the Phillies were malicious, the Astros took a hardline and lost

He's referring to the Astros throwing Aiken under the bus after failing to sign him by mentioning Close.

 

I've only read about it from the posts in this thread, but they make it sound like it was unwittingly throwing him under the bus vs. Amaro reporting their unsigned guys to the NCAA. Is this a purposeful ratting out?

[SouthSideRyan]

Nix has filed a grievance based on his verbal agreement with the Astros. Things are looking bad in Houston.

 

Jeff Passan ✔ @JeffPassan

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Scary Astros possibility: If Nix wins grievance to pay agreed-upon $1.5M, Houston 17% over bonus pool, would forfeit next two 1st-rd picks.

5:11 PM - 18 Jul 2014

 

Grievance with/through who?

[Tryptamine]

Nix has filed a grievance based on his verbal agreement with the Astros. Things are looking bad in Houston.

 

Jeff Passan ✔ @JeffPassan

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Scary Astros possibility: If Nix wins grievance to pay agreed-upon $1.5M, Houston 17% over bonus pool, would forfeit next two 1st-rd picks.

5:11 PM - 18 Jul 2014

 

Grievance with/through who?

 

MLBPA

[Vinestal]

Nix has filed a grievance based on his verbal agreement with the Astros. Things are looking bad in Houston.

 

Jeff Passan ✔ @JeffPassan

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Scary Astros possibility: If Nix wins grievance to pay agreed-upon $1.5M, Houston 17% over bonus pool, would forfeit next two 1st-rd picks.

5:11 PM - 18 Jul 2014

 

Grievance with/through who?

Federal Court?

[davell]

I think what we just saw was a correction by the Astros. One that works out better for them honestly.

 

With the Appel [expletive], coupled with what likely was somewhat of an elbow concern on Aiken.....I think we witnessed them changing their mindset during the middle of the signing period.

 

They'll have pick 2, plus their own top 5 pick. The amount of flexibility that gives a team is insane with this format. They'll take hitting at both spots and likely have a very solid amount left over to take pitching, as we did. They're about to copy us. Just watch.

 

Can we not pre-emptively credit our FO for the Astros success in addition to our own as of now unrealized success?

 

Not really what I was going for, but we are the 1st team on the "[expletive] taking pitching high" train. It's easy to see other teams adopting that too. But you're right, we truly don't know if it'll work or not.

[Tedward]

I think what we just saw was a correction by the Astros. One that works out better for them honestly.

 

With the Appel [expletive], coupled with what likely was somewhat of an elbow concern on Aiken.....I think we witnessed them changing their mindset during the middle of the signing period.

 

They'll have pick 2, plus their own top 5 pick. The amount of flexibility that gives a team is insane with this format. They'll take hitting at both spots and likely have a very solid amount left over to take pitching, as we did. They're about to copy us. Just watch.

 

They lost more than just trading Aiken for the #2 pick here, this cost them two other pretty big talents. They decided their convictions over 2-3 million weren't worth draft picks(not Aiken) that would very likely exceed that in value.

 

Not only this, but ..... If I'm agent & my player is selected by Astros next year, I demand full slot, no under slot deal. Astros may need to go full slot on both picks next year. Can't afford not to with backlash from this disaster

[davell]

I wonder what type of grievance gets filed here? You have to figure they'll attempt to get free agency anyway. If MLB has anything to do with it, it won't happen. But this is going to get extremely interesting.

 

I'd love to see the Astros get penalized for reneging with Nix.

[Guest]

So, basically, greatest Cubs turn of events in years (and extremely unlikely)

 

Nix files grievance, wins, Astros lose a bunch of first rounders.

 

Aiken is somehow awarded free agency after proving the Astros weren't negotiating in good faith, we sign him for a little over a year of Tanaka money.

 

Side note: Yeah, I'm as hard on the TINSTAAPP bandwagon as anyone, but [expletive] it. If we can get all that control of the best amateur pitching talent currently for nothing more than money, do it.

 

 

Side note #2: I know this isn't happening. Just fun to say.

Edited July 19, 2014 by David

[jumbo]

So, basically, greatest Cubs turn of events in years (and extremely unlikely)

 

Nix files grievance, wins, Astros lose a bunch of first rounders.

 

Aiken is somehow awarded free agency after proving the Astros weren't negotiating in good faith, we sign him for a little over a year of Tanaka money.

 

Side note: Yeah, I'm as hard on the TINSTAAP bandwagon as anyone, but [expletive] it. If we can get all that control of the best amateur pitching talent currently for nothing more than money, do it.

 

 

Side note #2: I know this isn't happening. Just fun to say.

I had the same thought

[Guest]

Even if the Astros have two picks ahead of the Cubs in 2015, if Aiken goes to junior college and stays healthy, someone else (non-Astros) ahead of the Cubs will take him, making the net effect talent at the Cubs pick the same as if Aiken had signed today.

[davell]

This is the basic risk/reward here for Aiken.....

 

Turn down 5 mill(where your arm is likely already insured for that anyway) for the opportunity to gain 35-40 mill. At 4 or 5-1 odds against(guess) With worst case being he gets 3 mill next year instead of the 5 he turned down.(based on Hoffman's TJS bonus from Jays)

[Gmoney08]

Even if the Astros have two picks ahead of the Cubs in 2015, if Aiken goes to junior college and stays healthy, someone else (non-Astros) ahead of the Cubs will take him, making the net effect talent at the Cubs pick the same as if Aiken had signed today.

 

I think the Cubs end up with one of the two worst records in baseball after the trade last week, and i for one am happy about it.

[Tangled Up in Plaid]

the astros end up with 1 and 2 if they finish with the worst record? lol, that's crazy.

[Deeg]

That's what you get when you have a CBA crafted explicitly to reward teams that value cost-control over winning. And it was shrewd for Selig to push for so much on the draft and IFA side of the ledger, because the MLBPA is made up of MLB players - and they're always going to be willing to give concessions out of the pockets of guys who aren't members yet rather than the guys who are.

[Clem Fandango]

I wonder what type of grievance gets filed here? You have to figure they'll attempt to get free agency anyway. If MLB has anything to do with it, it won't happen. But this is going to get extremely interesting.

 

It's not unprecedented, though it was before the new CBA

 

http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2010/08/barret-loux-to-be-granted-free-agency.html

[SouthSideRyan]

Nix has filed a grievance based on his verbal agreement with the Astros. Things are looking bad in Houston.

 

Jeff Passan ✔ @JeffPassan

Follow

 

Scary Astros possibility: If Nix wins grievance to pay agreed-upon $1.5M, Houston 17% over bonus pool, would forfeit next two 1st-rd picks.

5:11 PM - 18 Jul 2014

 

Grievance with/through who?

 

MLBPA

 

How would he have the right? He's not in the MLBPA

[Guest]

http://grantland.com/the-triangle/houston-astros-brady-aiken-number-1-draft-pick/

[Tangled Up in Plaid]

This isn't about sabermetrics or how the Astros chose to rebuild. This is distinctly about the human element. If your word is not your bond, if you’re willing to brazenly exploit teenagers to gain an edge, endangering their educational and professional futures out of spite, you might lack an appreciation for the human element. I’d say you lack humanity altogether.

 

oooo, [expletive] burn.

[wvcbxl]

If Aiken does indeed lose his eligibility, this is kind of thing that could absolutely ruin them in drafts for the next decade. All the games that were played and costing the kid his ability to go to college would be well in excess of the Phillies' ordeal in my eyes.

 

Disagree, the Phillies were malicious, the Astros took a hardline and lost

He's referring to the Astros throwing Aiken under the bus after failing to sign him by mentioning Close.

 

The Astros tried to contact Close, but as he is only Aiken's "advisor", he correctly didn't return the calls, as that could have been viewed as "negociating", which is an agent's job.

If Aiken loses his NCAA eligibility over this, that could mean that any MLB team has extra leverage in negociations with HS draft picks by threatening to report contacts with "advisors" - somehow, that sounds ridiculous.

[davell]

I really expect Close to try his damndest to get Aiken and Nix free agency. I figure Nix has the best shot. But what I can't see is MLB allowing teams to freely bid either.

 

Take a little of what Boras said today and work with that somehow. Allow all teams to look at the medicals and let teams decide on if they'd have given him 6.5 or not.

 

Allow all teams that WOULD do it, to then be able to bid under these terms: Half of what you bid is taken from your draft pool over the next 2 seasons. Blind posting system type stuff.

 

The 1st round slot of the winning team takes the hit. If the bid eclipses the entire amount, it eats into the rest of the slots.

 

(example-team bids 12 mill, 3 mill gets taken off draft budget each of next 2 years)

[wekim81]

Even if Aiken goes JUCO and declares next year..and even if he's healthy..i expect the issue with his elbow to keep him from ever seeing a 5M signing bonus again.

[Cubswin11]

Even if Aiken goes JUCO and declares next year..and even if he's healthy..i expect the issue with his elbow to keep him from ever seeing a 5M signing bonus again.

If he goes the JUCO route and dominates/stays healthy I could easily see him getting $5 million+, plus i'd imagine there are other team's doctors that are of the same mindset of the ones Aiken/Close got to review his MRI and said it shouldn't be an issue.