2014 Draft Discussion

[Tryptamine]

This draft has been so vastly different than the last two. Two years ago we pretty much knew we were taking Almora by this point and last year we knew it would be 1 of 3. This year it could end up being 1 of about 10 different guys and I wouldn't be the least bit shocked. I just have no idea what to expect and the draft is only 8 days away.

[Guest]

My reason for not wanting Nola is that he has a lower ceiling (#3 starter) than you'd like at 1.4 but he still has the risk of severe injury.

[Guest]

Devil's avocado: That's the thinking that let Wacha get all the way to 19 in 2012. When it comes to guys thought to be Top 15-20 pitchers, especially in this year's draft, I'm skeptical of definitive talk on their ceilings unless they just simply don't have MLB velocity(which doesn't seem to be the case for Nola).

[Tryptamine]

Devil's avocado: That's the thinking that let Wacha get all the way to 19 in 2012. When it comes to guys thought to be Top 15-20 pitchers, especially in this year's draft, I'm skeptical of definitive talk on their ceilings unless they just simply don't have MLB velocity(which doesn't seem to be the case for Nola).

 

Nice job auto correct.

[Guest]

http://24.media.tumblr.com/tumblr_m6cs0fOqy91rxrz00o1_500.gif

[Outshined_One]

Devil's avocado

 

Nickname for durian?

[Proven Veteran]

Devil's avocado

 

Nickname for durian?

Guacamole made with ghost peppers.

[A New Era]

I don't see how Nola can't be a #2. I mean he's 94-95 and his numbers appear to be very impressive this year. If his pitches have some movement and he has good control he could be a Garza level pitcher couldn't he? I mean, what is it about Nola where people he's only got Travis Wood type ceiling?

[A New Era]

Yeah, with the hitters they have coming I really just want 1-2 pitchers from this draft who are almost guaranteed to make the Majors and be decent within 2 years.

 

In what world could you ever draft two such pitchers in one draft?

 

Being "decent" in 2 years is a bad phrase. But a couple guys with high floors from college ranks.

 

I'd rather draft one of those HS pitchers with high ceilings with our 2nd round pick. One of them is bound to be around.

[Cubswin11]

I don't see how Nola can't be a #2. I mean he's 94-95 and his numbers appear to be very impressive this year. If his pitches have some movement and he has good control he could be a Garza level pitcher couldn't he? I mean, what is it about Nola where people he's only got Travis Wood type ceiling?

It's been posted here, but the thinking is most college pitchers lost a few MPH moving from 5-6 days rest to 4 days rest. Most feel he's only 88-91 as a MLB pitcher.

[davell]

Velo alone doesn't give you a plus or plus-plus pitch. There's absolutely nothing wrong with being labeled a "3" on the true scouting scale. There are about 10 "1's" and not that many more "2's".

 

Where Nola fails to generate more than a 3 on that scale is the lack of a plus-plus pitch. He grades out as a 60 or so on multiple offerings. But nothing more than that. The thing that he DOES have that can change things up and it's acknowledged quite a bit-He does have plus-plus command. Which could turn him into more than a 3.

[A New Era]

Velo alone doesn't give you a plus or plus-plus pitch. There's absolutely nothing wrong with being labeled a "3" on the true scouting scale. There are about 10 "1's" and not that many more "2's".

 

Where Nola fails to generate more than a 3 on that scale is the lack of a plus-plus pitch. He grades out as a 60 or so on multiple offerings. But nothing more than that. The thing that he DOES have that can change things up and it's acknowledged quite a bit-He does have plus-plus command. Which could turn him into more than a 3.

 

I see, thanks. So is MLB accurate 60 fb/ 50 slider / 60 ch?

[davell]

Velo alone doesn't give you a plus or plus-plus pitch. There's absolutely nothing wrong with being labeled a "3" on the true scouting scale. There are about 10 "1's" and not that many more "2's".

 

Where Nola fails to generate more than a 3 on that scale is the lack of a plus-plus pitch. He grades out as a 60 or so on multiple offerings. But nothing more than that. The thing that he DOES have that can change things up and it's acknowledged quite a bit-He does have plus-plus command. Which could turn him into more than a 3.

 

I see, thanks. So is MLB accurate 60 fb/ 50 slider / 60 ch?

 

I'm not a scout, by any stretch. It's subjective. Aaron Fitt, at BA, would disagree with those numbers for sure. Certain reports I've seen have the SL at a 60 and the CH at a 50. I've seen reports that his hard curve is a 60 pitch. But I guess the general consensus says he's not got a plus-plus pitch or just overwhelming stuff, in general.

[MWV]

Devil's avocado

 

Nickname for durian?

Oh god.

It is now.

[Tryptamine]

Is Nola's change up really only a 50-60 on most people's boards? I had heard a few people say he had the best one in the draft. If so, that's really disappointing.

[Guest]

http://mweb.cbssports.com/mlb/writer/jon-heyman/24575310/astros-may-draft-rodon-or-aiken-no-1-overall-or-pull-surprise-with-Gordon

 

It's Heyman and all, but he says the Astros are considering Gordon at 1.1.

[imb]

Hey this is Jon heyman from twitter who are you drafting

 

Uhhh nick Gordon?

 

Sounds good thanks!

[Deeg]

Most reports have had Nola at 90-93, with Fitt's being the only one that really pegged him consistently in the mid 90s. Throwing every five days he's likely be an 89-92 MPH guy in the majors.

[Guest]

Most reports have had Nola at 90-93, with Fitt's being the only one that really pegged him consistently in the mid 90s. Throwing every five days he's likely be an 89-92 MPH guy in the majors.

 

Yeah, he was 91-93 most of the season. It was nice that he held the higher velocity all game in the SEC Tournament but that was definitely an exception. If he was 94-96 all season, he probably wouldn't make it to 1.4 with good reason.

[Guest]

Devil's avocado: That's the thinking that let Wacha get all the way to 19 in 2012. When it comes to guys thought to be Top 15-20 pitchers, especially in this year's draft, I'm skeptical of definitive talk on their ceilings unless they just simply don't have MLB velocity(which doesn't seem to be the case for Nola).

 

Fair enough... And I can definitely see a situation where Nola succeeds in the bigs.

 

But would you be willing to draft him instead of a college hitter?

[davell]

Devil's avocado: That's the thinking that let Wacha get all the way to 19 in 2012. When it comes to guys thought to be Top 15-20 pitchers, especially in this year's draft, I'm skeptical of definitive talk on their ceilings unless they just simply don't have MLB velocity(which doesn't seem to be the case for Nola).

 

Fair enough... And I can definitely see a situation where Nola succeeds in the bigs.

 

But would you be willing to draft him instead of a college hitter?

 

Not directed at me, but in THIS draft? Sure. I think Conforto is the hitter I like the most, but I'm not enamored with any of them.

 

I think I'm to the point that if one of the 3 pitchers doesn't make it to us.....I'd make phone calls to Nola, Pentecost, Zimmer, Jackson, Gordon, Conforto, Freeland, Newcomb, Turner, Hoffman, Holmes, Schwarber, and Toussaint and take whoever is willing to take the least amount. With the intent on finding 2 mill in savings from slot.

[wekim81]

Devil's avocado: That's the thinking that let Wacha get all the way to 19 in 2012. When it comes to guys thought to be Top 15-20 pitchers, especially in this year's draft, I'm skeptical of definitive talk on their ceilings unless they just simply don't have MLB velocity(which doesn't seem to be the case for Nola).

 

Fair enough... And I can definitely see a situation where Nola succeeds in the bigs.

 

But would you be willing to draft him instead of a college hitter?

When Conforto is the fallback option? For me, absolutely. I've wanted Nola at #4 (assuming Rodon and Aiken are gone) since Hoffman went down.

[Guest]

Devil's avocado: That's the thinking that let Wacha get all the way to 19 in 2012. When it comes to guys thought to be Top 15-20 pitchers, especially in this year's draft, I'm skeptical of definitive talk on their ceilings unless they just simply don't have MLB velocity(which doesn't seem to be the case for Nola).

 

Fair enough... And I can definitely see a situation where Nola succeeds in the bigs.

 

But would you be willing to draft him instead of a college hitter?

 

Personally I'll probably feel better with any hitter, but I trust the FO enough not to be bummed out by any pitcher relative to another unless they go way off the reservation.

[Guest]

Yeah, I know davell and wekim want pitchers but Tranny has been banging the college hitter drum for a while so I was curious with him specifically.

 

Devil's avocado: That's the thinking that let Wacha get all the way to 19 in 2012. When it comes to guys thought to be Top 15-20 pitchers, especially in this year's draft, I'm skeptical of definitive talk on their ceilings unless they just simply don't have MLB velocity(which doesn't seem to be the case for Nola).

 

Fair enough... And I can definitely see a situation where Nola succeeds in the bigs.

 

But would you be willing to draft him instead of a college hitter?

 

Personally I'll probably feel better with any hitter, but I trust the FO enough not to be bummed out by any pitcher relative to another unless they go way off the reservation.

 

Fair enough, I probably am in the same boat.

[Guest]

This is from an ESPN Insider piece by Chris Crawford but Arguello quoted this part:

 

"If Aiken, Rodon and [Tyler] Kolek are off the board, I don't think you can take a pitcher," an AL East crosschecker said. "Two months ago you had [Jeff] Hoffman and [Tyler] Beede as options, but I think those are off the table. If they're fortunate enough to have [Aiken, Rodon or Kolek] fall to them, they're golden, but if not, they're going to have to get creative. They certainly have the right guys in the front office to do that, though."

 

http://m.espn.go.com/general/blogs/blogpost?blogname=mlb-draft&id=1784&src=desktop&rand=ref~%7B%22ref%22%3A%22http%3A%2F%2Fwww.chicagonow.com%2Fcubs-den%2F2014%2F05%2Fis-there-really-a-chance-aiken-or-rodon-slips-to-the-cubs-here-are-the-scenarios%2F%22%7D