2014 Draft Discussion

[Hairyducked Idiot]

@kileymcd: @EricLPauly @tim815 to follow up, just got an email from a scout that said Cubs scouting dir & 2 VPs were in to see Pentecost last week.

 

In his mock last week, Keith Law suggested the Cubs were considering underslotting Max Pentecost at 1.4.

 

So we're underslotting and taking a catcher, but we're taking a college position player.

 

I don't know how I'd feel.

[Tryptamine]

@kileymcd: @EricLPauly @tim815 to follow up, just got an email from a scout that said Cubs scouting dir & 2 VPs were in to see Pentecost last week.

 

In his mock last week, Keith Law suggested the Cubs were considering underslotting Max Pentecost at 1.4.

 

So we're underslotting and taking a catcher, but we're taking a college position player.

 

I don't know how I'd feel.

 

If it landed someone like Fedde in the 2nd, I'd be pretty damn happy. They would for sure have to land a real big hard sign for me not to be pissed off though.

[Tangled Up in Plaid]

It seems really dumb unless you already have a deal with a guy with your 2nd pick.

[davell]

It seems really dumb unless you already have a deal with a guy with your 2nd pick.

 

Well, if we do it, I hope it's someone else we take at 4. Pentecost does nothing for me.

[Starling]

Underslot Pentecost?! And I was worried about them picking Gordon!

[Guest]

Peter Gammons is a shell of his old self but this is still an interesting read: http://www.gammonsdaily.com/peter-gammons-high-risk-drafting-high-school-pitchers-with-top-picks/

 

For the Jeff Hoffman at 1.4 fans:

 

Three different teams say data shows that once a pitcher has Tommy John Surgery, he is likely to need another operation within seven years.

[Guest]

Marlin Bystro thinks they are underslotting someone.

[Guest]

All together now, Col-lege bat! Col-lege bat! Col-lege bat!

[Hairyducked Idiot]

All together now, Col-lege bat! Col-lege bat! Col-lege bat!

 

\:D/ :good: :yahoo: :clapping: =D> :D

[Guest]

@kileymcd: @EricLPauly @tim815 to follow up, just got an email from a scout that said Cubs scouting dir & 2 VPs were in to see Pentecost last week.

 

In his mock last week, Keith Law suggested the Cubs were considering underslotting Max Pentecost at 1.4.

 

So we're underslotting and taking a catcher, but we're taking a college position player.

 

I don't know how I'd feel.

 

I'm hoping they're working on a draft board similar to Kiley McDaniel's where they have numerous players bunched together after the top 3. I have less of a problem underslotting in that situation since they view talent similarly.

 

[And as Kiley noted on Twitter last week, Kiley seems to rate players more similarly to the current Cubs' FO than most organizations (look at how much he loved the Almora, Johnson and Bryant picks)].

 

I'm still hoping for Alex Jackson.

[Hairyducked Idiot]

I'm hoping they're working on a draft board similar to Kiley McDaniel's where they have numerous players bunched together after the top 3. I have less of a problem underslotting in that situation since they view talent similarly.

 

 

Yeah, normally I'd say that if you can't find one guy you like more than the others, then you aren't trying hard enough.

 

But this collection of guys likely to be available at No. 4 is just so meh. I don't really want to pay No. 4 prices for any of them.

[jersey cubs fan]

All together now, Col-lege bat! Col-lege bat! Col-lege bat!

 

Don't have to convince me.

[Guest]

Kiley McDaniel with his top 288 prospects for the draft: http://sbb.scout.com/story/1404313-2014-mlb-draft-the-scout-288?s=381

 

1. Aiken

2. Rodon

3. Kolek

4. Gordon

5. Hoffman

6. Pentecost (!)

7. Zimmer

8. Turner

9. Jackson

10. Nola

[Thrilho]

McDaniel has been all over Pentecost on Twitter the last couple days:

 

18 May

Kiley McDaniel @kileymcd

Since 4/6, Max Pentecost has gone 46/87, hitting .529/.577/.722 w/5 HR, 6/7 SB, 10/5 BB/K in 97 PA. The last game I saw him? 4/5.

 

18 May

Kiley McDaniel @kileymcd

In the 160 PA before that, he still hit .357/.425/.463 w/3 HR & 17/18 BB/K, but scouts were hot and cold on his swing early in the year.

 

18 May

Kiley McDaniel @kileymcd

And if you're worried about Pentecost vs. better pitching or with wood? Last summer on the Cape: .346/.418/.480 w/6 HR, 16/22 BB/K in 146 PA

 

 

 

Seems like everyone likes his defense, athleticism (speed), and hit tool. Most reports have him with gap power, but the power has obviously ticked up lately.

 

In the video McDaniel posted he doesn't look like he's got much of a power stroke, and he's got some of the Baez waggle in the load, which seems like it would sap some power. Not a big fan of all the movement overall, but it seems to be working for him at the moment.

 

http://sbb.scout.com/story/1398378-draft-video-max-pentecost?s=381

 

 

He's got a .441 BABIP to go with his line of .422/.477/.626. 21 doubles and 8 HR in 230 ABs, up from 14 doubles and 3 HR in 212 ABs last year. Easy to see how he went under the radar until this hot streak.

 

Stats:

http://www.thebaseballcube.com/players/profile.asp?P=max-pentecost

Edited May 21, 2014 by Thrilho

[Thrilho]

He also had 2 doubles and a HR in a game on 5/11, so I'm sure that didn't hurt his stock.

[Tyrant]

If McDaniel is as aligned with Cubs thinking as some assume, looks like Pentecost may end up being the guy.

[Guest]

Don't have a PG subscription for their mock but I found some of these interesting (they have Aiken going first): http://www.perfectgame.org/Articles/View.aspx?article=9910

 

The pre-season presumptive No. 1 pick, North Carolina State lefthander Carlos Rodon, has morphed into mystery No. 1, with spring-long inconsistency and raw stuff.

 

Fast-rising East Carolina righthander Jeff Hoffman was injured and underwent TJ surgery just as it looked like he was making a push for  No. 1. Fellow top 10 righty Erick Fedde suffered the same fate shortly afterwards.

 

Sources say that teams at the top of the draft are talking themselves out of Texas high school righthander Tyler Kolek, perhaps the hardest throwing prep pitcher ever, due to concerns about his delivery, strike throwing ability and secondary pitches, and that his floor is now the seventh or eighth pick. This could well be a smoke-screen, however.

 

The consensus top high school bat, San Diego’s Alex Jackson, doesn’t have a defined future position.

 

The consensus top high school pitcher, fellow San Diego resident Brady Aiken, was throwing 89-91 mph nine months ago

 

A completely new name has surfaced as a potential sleeper for the Astros No. 1 pick, Evansville southpaw Kyle Freeland, according to scouting sources. Freeland wasn’t even on many pre-season first round lists.

 

ETA: Apparently the Cubs take Rodon in this mock. He's the first college player picked.

[Guest]

@jimcallisMLB: Max Pentecost keeps rising up @MLBdraft boards. Not impossible he goes in top 10 & heard Cubs prez Theo Epstein checked him out today.

[A New Era]

if he continues to get this much attention we might not be able to underslot him (Pentecost).

[Guest]

On Pentecost:

 

@CrawfordChrisV: Three-for-five day for Kennesaw State catcher/international man of mystery Max Pentecost. Have heard lots of top 10 talk, maybe even top 5.

 

@CrawfordChrisV: Think it's a combination of that and this class...well... RT @longenhagen Are teams that much higher on the bat than they were 2 months ago?

 

@PSLToFlushing: @CrawfordChrisV Pentecost would presumably be a big bonus $ saver that high, right?

 

@CrawfordChrisV: @PSLToFlushing Feasibly, yes.

[Thrilho]

18 May

Kiley McDaniel @kileymcd

And if you're worried about Pentecost vs. better pitching or with wood? Last summer on the Cape: .346/.418/.480 w/6 HR, 16/22 BB/K in 146 PA

 

Looks like McDaniel sold Pentecost short. He actually hit .346/.425/.538 and won MVP of the Cape Cod league. Looks like McDaniel used PA in the slugging denominator. But a .192 ISO with a wood bat against some of the best pitching prospects is pretty good. And the MVP gives you some context.

 

Here are some links:

 

Cape numbers:

http://www.pointstreak.com/baseball/player.html?playerid=423656

 

Article about the MVP

http://www.atlanticsun.org/baseball/news/2013-14/8041/ksus-max-pentecost-wins-mvp-award-in-cape-cod-league/

 

Callis article from 4/18

http://mlb.mlb.com/news/article.jsp?ymd=20140418&content_id=72515470&notebook_id=72518710&vkey=notebook_mlb&c_id=mlb

 

 

He went 3-5 in front of Theo today. As of right now, I'm hoping they like this guy enough to take him.

[Tryptamine]

At this point I'm pretty much game for whatever. The only guy I particularly like in this draft is Aiken and he's the least likely to slip. As long as we don't end up with Beede,Turner or Nola I can pretty much tolerate it.

[Thrilho]

I'd still be very happy with Jackson, but that time frame is still a killer. Seeing Almora struggling drives home the optimistic nature of the "let's put Jackson in right and fast track him." It would be nice to have a catcher who could be ready around 2017 or late 2016 rather than be looking at potentially 2018/2019.

 

If they take Kolek I'll trust they measured the risk, but I wouldn't take that risk if it was my decision. Rodon I'd be happy with, but I'd rather just for college bat if it's possible and avoid waiting an entire career for the other shoe I drop.

[Guest]

@kileymcd: Both VPs & the SD in 2 weeks ago. 6th on my board RT @jimcallisMLB Max Pentecost keeps rising; Cubs prez Theo Epstein checked him out today.

 

@kileymcd: Rare tools combo at C of above avg bat speed, run, throw and defense MT @tim815 Can Max Pentecost actually be a good MLB defensive catcher?

 

@kileymcd: Pentecost's stock isn't really rising. He's been the same since last summer. I said he was a mid 1st rounder on a short look from the Cape.

 

@kileymcd: Teams are getting more comfortable with him as the history gets longer but what's happening is it's now time to decide if he's 5th or 12th.

 

@kileymcd: This is one of those things that drives me crazy about any draft coverage. A guy moves up a list some & people assume he recently improved.

 

@kileymcd: I've said for weeks that after the top 2-3 there's a tier or literally 20 players you can rank almost any way. This is what happens.

 

@kileymcd: Lastly, when I saw Pentecost last month, I said his game is very friendly to GM/VP/SD style short looks. Tools, loose ath, makeup, hustle...

 

When asked if Pentecost is still an underslot:

 

@kileymcd: @ballskwok yeah still 9-12th for industry at large it sounds like. But if anther top 10 team starts sniffing around, then maybe.

[Guest]

@sahadevsharma: Hearing that Max Pentecost is under consideration for Cubs at 4. However there are others higher on their board who'll be available there