2013-14 International Free Agency Thread

[Cubswin11]

From Klaw today, fwiw.

 

@keithlaw He wouldn't. RT @JoeCostner37: @keithlaw where would Jose Abreu rank in your top 100?

[KingCubsFan]

He's a 1B so unless we plan on moving Rizzo or he can play OF/3B I doubt we'd have a ton of interest. He seems pretty athletic, or at least athletic enough, that he should be able to be passable in the OF. I have no idea if he has any experience playing a something other than 1B or if he'd even be open to a change, however.

Thanks. I thought he was an outfielder for some reason.

[Guest]

Per Arizona Phil, the Cubs appear to have signed Cuban reliever Armando Rivero. Here is Ben Badler's scouting report from last January:

 

Ben Badler[/url]"]Armando Rivero, rhp

 

Rivero and Concepcion were teammates with the Industriales in Cuba in 2010-11, but while Concepcion was a starter, Rivero worked out of the bullpen. Rivero's power played well as a reliever, as he posted a 3.06 ERA with 38 strikeouts and 21 walks in 47 innings in his final season in Cuba.

 

Rivero, 23, has a thin 6-foot-3 frame and pitches off of a plus fastball. He throws around 91-93 mph and has topped out at 96. His mechanics have some funkiness in the back with a slight hook, but some scouts say the ball comes comes out cleanly in the front from a low three-quarters arm slot. His best secondary pitch is a quality splitter with some late tumble.

 

Some scouts have said Rivero throws both a curveball and a slider, while others think it's two different versions of the same pitch. His breaking stuff is behind his splitter, flashing solid-average every once in a while but it's often a 45 on the 20-80 scale with more side-to-side action because his low slot makes it hard to stay on top of the ball.

 

Scouts don't want to limit Rivero to the bullpen just because he was used that way in Cuba, but many of them believe he best profiles as a middle reliever. Once he signs, he could start in Double-A.

[Guest]

More on Rivero from Rogers:

 

Another intriguing Cuban prospect has arrived at the Chicago Cubs’ Fitch Park complex.

 

Right-hander Armando Rivero, who had been stuck in Haiti awaiting a visa, is participating with other pitchers and catchers at the minor-league camp in Mesa, Ariz.

 

Rivero remains cloaked in some mystery. He is 23 or 24, so he wasn’t subject to the international signing limit, and the Cubs won his rights in a lower-level bidding war against at least a few others clubs. The signing price is not known.

 

Rivero was a closer for the Industriales in Havana, pitching alongside Cubs’ minor-league lefty Gerardo Concepcion, and is considered by the Cubs an advanced prospect with the ability to contribute in the big leagues in 2014, if not late this season.

 

While the Cubs may start him in the minor leagues, they believe he profiles as a middle reliever. He has shown a mid-90s fastball at times and is considered to have a plus splitter. He throws a breaking ball as a third pitch.

 

Rivero is represented by the same agency (Praver/Shapiro) as Jorge Soler and sometimes tried out alongside him. He was not as successful as Soler in quickly receiving his documentation to enter the United States, which is why he is only now arriving.

[craig]

More on Rivero from Rogers:

 

Another intriguing Cuban prospect has arrived at the Chicago Cubs’ Fitch Park complex.....is considered by the Cubs an advanced prospect with the ability to contribute in the big leagues in 2014, if not late this season.......While the Cubs may start him in the minor leagues, they believe he profiles as a middle reliever. He has shown a mid-90s fastball at times and is considered to have a plus splitter. He throws a breaking ball as a third pitch......

 

The "intrigue" is limited for any guy who the signing team thinks profiles as a middle-reliever. That's equivalent to saying: "we think he's pretty limited as a prospect." A guy with a notably strong arm, even if he's wild, they'll say he profiles as a late reliever. A guy who either has good mechanics, good control, decent 2nd or 3rd pitches, or throws very hard, they'll say he profiles as a starter. I think "middle reliever" is basically saying: he doesn't throw that hard consistently enough to be a late reliever. And while he may "try" to throw a breaking ball and throw a splitter that is sometimes good, he's got no control of them, so he doesn't profile as a starter either. "Middle reliever" = "limited prospect".

 

Probably. :)

[Guest]

One reason to blow out the int'l spending limits this July 2nd (a la the Rays): the possibility MLB moves to an international draft as soon as next year: http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2013/03/mlb-mlbpa-talking-worldwide-draft.html

 

@EricFisherSBJ: In SBJ, MLB and MLBPA pushing to strike deal for worldwide draft by June 1. If no deal by then, expanded intl spending restrictions kick in

 

Ahh, the sequester of international free agency:

 

@EricFisherSBJ: The auto trigger for tighter MLB spending restrictions on intl amateurs described as a "poison pill" designed to spur along worldwide draft

[Hairyducked Idiot]

Would that render the Dominican Academy moot?

[Guest]

Not completely, you'd get better information on potential draftees which other teams wouldn't be able to get(I presume), plus it fosters good will to help avoid acrimonious negotiations with draftees. It does take a good chunk out of the utility though, no way around that.

[Guest]

Not completely, you'd get better information on potential draftees which other teams wouldn't be able to get(I presume), plus it fosters good will to help avoid acrimonious negotiations with draftees. It does take a good chunk out of the utility though, no way around that.

 

Possibly the biggest advantage currently and in a future int'l draft would be with players from countries outside the Dominican - they would be more willing to work out with the Cubs (and allow the Cubs go get more information as TT suggested) because they know the Cubs have quality facilities. This has apparently helped the Yankees in the past in Venezuela.

[Guest]

Ben Badler is reporting the Cubs signed Rivero for $3.1 million. Wow.

 

The Cubs have signed Cuban righthander Armando Rivero to a contract with a $3.1 million bonus.

 

International sources last year in July said the Cubs were going to sign Rivero for the same terms, so it appears the agreement may have been in place for several months. However, the Cubs did not officially submit the contract until this month. BA correspondent Phil Rogers first reported Rivero's signing.

 

...

 

At 6-foot-3, 180 pounds, Rivero's best pitch is his fastball, which sits in the low-90s and peaks at 96 mph. He doesn't have a plus secondary pitch but he has a solid splitter with late tumble. He'll drop to a low three-quarters arm slot, which may be why he has trouble throwing a reliable breaking ball. Some scouts have said Rivero throws a curveball and a slider, while others think he's just manipulating the same pitch. His low slow makes it difficult for him to stay on top of the ball, giving his breaking ball more side to side action. He also has a slight hook in his arm action that affects his command.

 

Since Rivero is 25 and has four seasons of professional experience in Cuba's top league, his bonus will be exempt from Chicago's 2012-13 international bonus pool. For the current signing period, Cuban signings are exempt from the international bonus pools as long as they are at least 23 and have played in Serie Nacional for at least three seasons.

 

The Cubs haven't said where Rivero will begin his career, but he's advanced enough that Double-A Tennessee would seem to be an option.

[Hairyducked Idiot]

That seems ... high.

 

The Cubs know you can get an actual middle reliever for that price, not just a hopeful one?

 

Edit: Also, he's 25 now?

[Guest]

@BenBadler: Complicated. International bonuses don't equal talent RT ‏@RaisinMan101 $3.1 M seems a bit much for his scouting profile. Am I mistaken?

[Hairyducked Idiot]

@BenBadler: Complicated. International bonuses don't equal talent RT ‏@RaisinMan101 $3.1 M seems a bit much for his scouting profile. Am I mistaken?

 

Well, why don't they equal talent?

[davell]

That seems ... high.

 

The Cubs know you can get an actual middle reliever for that price, not just a hopeful one?

 

Edit: Also, he's 25 now?

Kyle: 6 years versus 1, maybe 2.

[Hairyducked Idiot]

That seems ... high.

 

The Cubs know you can get an actual middle reliever for that price, not just a hopeful one?

 

Edit: Also, he's 25 now?

Kyle: 6 years versus 1, maybe 2.

 

The six-year price is a lot more than $3.1 million.

[davell]

That seems ... high.

 

The Cubs know you can get an actual middle reliever for that price, not just a hopeful one?

 

Edit: Also, he's 25 now?

Kyle: 6 years versus 1, maybe 2.

 

The six-year price is a lot more than $3.1 million.

Jesus. Its a lot less than finding a different 35 year old one year wonder on the FA market each year.

[Hairyducked Idiot]

That seems ... high.

 

The Cubs know you can get an actual middle reliever for that price, not just a hopeful one?

 

Edit: Also, he's 25 now?

Kyle: 6 years versus 1, maybe 2.

 

The six-year price is a lot more than $3.1 million.

Jesus. Its a lot less than finding a different 35 year old one year wonder on the FA market each year.

 

It's at least $3 million more, and probably a lot more than that. You can't just say "Well, they got six years of a MLB middle reliever for $3.1 million." Especially when there's a very good chance he won't be a good MLB middle reliever.

 

This feels like Concepcion all over again.

[jersey cubs fan]

@BenBadler: Complicated. International bonuses don't equal talent RT ‏@RaisinMan101 $3.1 M seems a bit much for his scouting profile. Am I mistaken?

 

Well, why don't they equal talent?

 

For one, they can equate to how close to the majors a player is. Also, they equate to what rules apply to the player. A guy like this, without restrictions, is going to get more than a guy who falls under the restricted category and is much more talented. Circumstance plays a very big part.

[Hairyducked Idiot]

Well, that's an interesting comment:

 

Ben Badler ‏@BenBadler

Seems like they're backing away. Not much success there RT @YesThatBrooke Cubs are all-in these days when it comes to Cuban defectors.

[Hairyducked Idiot]

For one, they can equate to how close to the majors a player is. Also, they equate to what rules apply to the player. A guy like this, without restrictions, is going to get more than a guy who falls under the restricted category and is much more talented. Circumstance plays a very big part.

 

The former is part is talent. I thought maybe he was talking about something more complicated or interesting than just "this guy wasn't covered under the pool restrictions."

[Guest]

@BenBadler: Complicated. International bonuses don't equal talent RT ‏@RaisinMan101 $3.1 M seems a bit much for his scouting profile. Am I mistaken?

 

Well, why don't they equal talent?

 

Since the international free agent spending cap doesnt apply, his bonus will be bid up in the free agent market.

[Guest]

For one, they can equate to how close to the majors a player is. Also, they equate to what rules apply to the player. A guy like this, without restrictions, is going to get more than a guy who falls under the restricted category and is much more talented. Circumstance plays a very big part.

 

The former is part is talent. I thought maybe he was talking about something more complicated or interesting than just "this guy wasn't covered under the pool restrictions."

 

IFA guys always got more than they deserved (think Ynoa or the countless Rangers players signed before the cap came in place), making the valuation of the prospect more complicated than just bonus value.

[jersey cubs fan]

For one, they can equate to how close to the majors a player is. Also, they equate to what rules apply to the player. A guy like this, without restrictions, is going to get more than a guy who falls under the restricted category and is much more talented. Circumstance plays a very big part.

 

The former is part is talent.

 

No it is not.

[craig]

Ben Badler is reporting the Cubs signed Rivero for $3.1 million. Wow.

 

Thanks. Nice to know its done, and to get a dollar value on it. Hopefully he gets his visa issues sorted out so he can actually work on becoming a good pitcher soon.

 

I wonder how much patience they'll have with a 25-year-old prospect. It sounds like he's a guy who could really use extensive coaching. The arm angle, the hook, the unreliable breaking ball(s), the control, these seem like a variety of issues that good pitching coach(es) might be able to help with, but will take time. But a guy who maybe needs a lot of coaching and tinkering wouldn't seem like a fast-tracker, more like a guy you'd like to have several summers and off-seasons to work with.

 

Hopefully he's a quick study and takes well to coaching.

 

I assume some of the scouting process is looking at what a guy is doing now, and projecting what he could be if you get your hands on him for a while. Hopefully the finished product will end up being reasonably useful.

[craig]

That seems ... high.

....This feels like Concepcion all over again.

 

Sure. Only, at half the price, 5 years older, RH instead of LH, and even less scouting enthusiasm, he seems like a much longer shot than Concepcion.

 

But, that's the game I guess. You take your shots, and usually miss. Hopefully once in a while a shot hits and makes it worth it.