2013-14 International Free Agency Thread

[illiniguy]

Ben Badler on Gleyber Torres:

 

Baseball America[/url]"]This year, teams can choose from five shortstops who have separated themselves from the pack and could be in line for bonuses of at least $1 million. Some teams believe Gleyber Torres, who trains with Ciro Barrios, is the best all-around shortstop. He is widely expected to be the top-paid player in Venezuela this year, with the Cubs strongly linked to him. Scouts highest on Torres believe he can stick at shortstop, has hit in games and brings solid power for the position from the right side of the plate.

 

Torres, 16, showed above-average speed back in November, but his running times have been closer to average more recently. At 5-foot-11, 180 pounds, Torres’ hands and arm work well in the field but some scouts prefer more athleticism at shortstop, so he could end up being a player who splits time between shortstop, second and third base as he moves up.

I love that the system has so many up the middle players. Keep adding them please.

[Guest]

MLB.com's top 30 IFA prospects. Jiminez is #1, Torres #3: http://mlb.mlb.com/mlb/prospects/watch/y2013/#list=int

 

And a story on Jimenez: http://mlb.mlb.com/news/article.jsp?ymd=20130621&content_id=51227800&vkey=news_mlb&c_id=mlb

[Guest]

@BenBadler: Cubs, Rangers RT @tpgMets which team do you see making the first trade to add int'l pool space?

[RammyFanny]

MLB.com's top 30 IFA prospects. Jiminez is #1, Torres #3: http://mlb.mlb.com/mlb/prospects/watch/y2013/#list=int

 

And a story on Jimenez: http://mlb.mlb.com/news/article.jsp?ymd=20130621&content_id=51227800&vkey=news_mlb&c_id=mlb

 

There's some pretty good new videos of everyone in there. Torres looks a bit like Javy in that video.

[Guest]

They have to be trying to make a trade for more cap space.

 

@BenBadler: Hearing the Cubs on another big name in the international market. Will be in tomorrow's July 2 notebook for BA subscribers.

[davell]

They have to be trying to make a trade for more cap space.

 

@BenBadler: Hearing the Cubs on another big name in the international market. Will be in tomorrow's July 2 notebook for BA subscribers.

Either that, OR they realize they can't get both Jimenez and Torres. Could just be moving from Torres to a slightly less expensive player. OTOH, the CCO listed us as being after Diplan a day or two ago.

[Guest]

@BenBadler: Good question. Covering that tomorrow too! RT @Cubs_Prospects would they have to trade for more international cap space to make these moves?

[davell]

It will be very interesting to see how teams value IFA space. As an example, I'll use Alberto Cabrera as a trade piece. I could see a team like the Marlins(who doesn't spend on IFA) valuing a guy like Cabrera pretty highly. The Marlins highest piece of their pool is 1.763,100. Is trading that for Cabrera smart or dumb? In all likelihood, it'd buy you Marcus Diplan with a few hundred thousand left over. What are the true odds you even develop Diplan to the point that he becomes a fair SP prospect in AA, with a solid shot at becoming a middle reliever to set up type guy? From 16, I can't think the odds are that great myself. But, if we go try and acquire space, its guys like him that I suspect will be the trade bait. How do you guys figure we'd acquire extra space?

[Hairyducked Idiot]

Not a huge Cabrera fan, but I wouldn't trade him for that space. If we do trade for that space, it'd better come *really* cheap.

[Tangled Up in Plaid]

Not a huge Cabrera fan, but I wouldn't trade him for that space. If we do trade for that space, it'd better come *really* cheap.

 

Seriously.

[Guest]

It will be very interesting to see how teams value IFA space. As an example, I'll use Alberto Cabrera as a trade piece. I could see a team like the Marlins(who doesn't spend on IFA) valuing a guy like Cabrera pretty highly. The Marlins highest piece of their pool is 1.763,100. Is trading that for Cabrera smart or dumb? In all likelihood, it'd buy you Marcus Diplan with a few hundred thousand left over. What are the true odds you even develop Diplan to the point that he becomes a fair SP prospect in AA, with a solid shot at becoming a middle reliever to set up type guy? From 16, I can't think the odds are that great myself. But, if we go try and acquire space, its guys like him that I suspect will be the trade bait. How do you guys figure we'd acquire extra space?

 

That would be a horrible, horrible trade.

[davell]

I'm just trying to figure out what IS fair value for IFA space. Reggie Golden for close to a million? Zych or McNutt for the same? I honestly have no idea. Maybe a guy like Chris Rusin has some semblance of value for a bit of IFA money?

[Hairyducked Idiot]

I'm just trying to figure out what IS fair value for IFA space. Reggie Golden for close to a million? Zych or McNutt for the same? I honestly have no idea. Maybe a guy like Chris Rusin has some semblance of value for a bit of IFA money?

 

I don't think prospect for IFA money is going to be in the ballpark. That's basically prospect for prospect, and then you are going to have a hard time drumming up an indifference in valuation to make the trade worthwhile to both teams.

 

I could see someone like Navarro netting some IFA space.

[Cubswin11]

I'm just trying to figure out what IS fair value for IFA space. Reggie Golden for close to a million? Zych or McNutt for the same? I honestly have no idea. Maybe a guy like Chris Rusin has some semblance of value for a bit of IFA money?

 

I don't think prospect for IFA money is going to be in the ballpark. That's basically prospect for prospect, and then you are going to have a hard time drumming up an indifference in valuation to make the trade worthwhile to both teams.

 

I could see someone like Navarro netting some IFA space.

I agree. Or having IFA money thrown in on top of a prospect(s) for like Gregg when/if he's traded.

[jersey cubs fan]

I'm just trying to figure out what IS fair value for IFA space. Reggie Golden for close to a million? Zych or McNutt for the same? I honestly have no idea. Maybe a guy like Chris Rusin has some semblance of value for a bit of IFA money?

 

I don't think prospect for IFA money is going to be in the ballpark. That's basically prospect for prospect, and then you are going to have a hard time drumming up an indifference in valuation to make the trade worthwhile to both teams.

 

I could see someone like Navarro netting some IFA space.

 

It's not really prospect for prospect. It's essentially prospect for cash. There are teams that would rather not spend cash on a prospect if they don't have to. If they don't want to spend $1m on a 16 year old, but could acquire some 20 year old simply for giving up their right to spend that $1m, they will.

[Guest]

I'm just trying to figure out what IS fair value for IFA space. Reggie Golden for close to a million? Zych or McNutt for the same? I honestly have no idea. Maybe a guy like Chris Rusin has some semblance of value for a bit of IFA money?

 

I don't think prospect for IFA money is going to be in the ballpark. That's basically prospect for prospect, and then you are going to have a hard time drumming up an indifference in valuation to make the trade worthwhile to both teams.

 

I could see someone like Navarro netting some IFA space.

I agree. Or having IFA money thrown in on top of a prospect(s) for like Gregg when/if he's traded.

 

Yeah, I imagine cap space will be included as part of a trade if it's traded.

 

But it's a new concept so who knows?

[Guest]

• One pitcher who has drawn the attention of the Cubs is 6-foot-7 Dominican righthander Jefferson Mejia. In recent years, teams have been more willing than ever before to pay big bonuses to “older” Latin American pitchers, even if older in Latin America means a player is the same age as a high school senior in the United States. Mejia, who trains with Edgar Mercedes, would have been eligible to sign on July 2 last year, but MLB declared him ineligible to sign until April 4, 2013, over an issue with his age.

 

Mejia didn’t sign once he became eligible again, but at that point in the year, most teams had tapped out a good chunk of their $2.9 million bonus pools from 2012-13 signing period. If the Cubs are on him now but didn’t have the money to sign him last year, that would indicate that Mejia is looking at a potential high six-figure bonus on or after July 2. Mejia, who according to an International Prospect League roster is 17, has shown a low-90s fastball, a swing-and-miss changeup and a solid curveball.

 

The problem is, teams appear to be having a difficult time working out trades, creating a serious dilemma if they have given agents or trainers for certain players the impression that they will have the money to sign their players when July 2 arrives.

 

Two teams in particular—the Cubs and Rangers—look like sure bets to exceed their bonus pools. The Cubs have a $4.56 million pool, but based on Baseball America’s projections, they might be looking to spend north of $6 million. The Rangers have a $1.94 million pool and also look like they are heading north of their allocation.

 

In addition to the Cubs and Rangers, sources have said the Yankees, Dodgers and perhaps Red Sox might also be among the other teams in the market to acquire more pool space. Yet the way in which MLB structured the bonus pools has left the market short on sellers. Just seven teams have more than $3 million in their bonus pools, and two of them are the Cubs and Red Sox.

 

...

 

The trade value of pool space has yet to play out, but some teams are finding it harder than they expected to navigate their way to a deal. There has even been talk among teams of trying to pull off three-team deals to try to get something done.

 

“You may see a trade-deadline trade with bonus money allotment thrown in as a sweetener,” said one team official. “Obviously the teams have to match up in order to make that type of deal work.”

 

http://www.baseballamerica.com/international/july-2-notebook-trade-troubles-brewing/

[Hairyducked Idiot]

Well, that's intriguing. I'd rather not overpay for space. If it's not there, you dont' *have* to go nuts on these 16-year-olds.

[jersey cubs fan]

Well, that's intriguing. I'd rather not overpay for space. If it's not there, you dont' *have* to go nuts on these 16-year-olds.

 

You don't have to, but the Cubs were very willing to overpay for access to these guys before the rules changed.

[Guest]

Kiley McDaniel has Torres as his top IFA prospect and predicts the Cubs will sign him.

 

1. Gleyber Torres, SS, Venezuela

 

5'11/185, R/R, July 2 Age: 16.55, Trainer/Agent: Ciro Barrios

 

Scouting Report: Torres isn't the prototypical July 2nd shortstop, with a maxed-out frame and just average speed. That said, he's got a lot of present skills and has trains with Ciro Barrios, the most prolific talent producer in Venezuela. Torres has an above average arm and very good hands and actions, but his average foot speed limits his lateral quickness, which is why some scouts think he could fit better at second base long-term. That said, he'll go out as a shortstop after signing and I wouldn't underestimate Torres' ability to overachieve, with great instincts and feel for the game. He also has a bat that stands out now, with a high leg kick for timing but a simple, direct, loose swing that lashes line drives to the gaps. Torres has some lift to his swing and you can project average raw power, or 15-18 homers annually in the big leagues at maturity. He hit well in the games I saw (despite being out front in both game swings in the above video) and scouts seem sold on his ability to hit with gap power and stick up the middle, but Torres' upside isn't the same as many previous top July 2nd prospects. If you'd like to know their names, many have already been released and the certainty Torres offers along with everyday player upside at a premium position is plenty. Since he doesn't have the highest upside in the class and clubs differ so greatly on 15/16 year old talent, Torres won't be getting the highest bonus in this class.

 

Torres' swing has some similarities to Derek Jeter and Torres is also comparable to the player that got one of the highest bonuses last year, another Venezuelan infielder, Blue Jays prospect Franklin Barreto. Barreto signed fro $1.45 million and has similar skills and superior speed but also likely moves to second base and is only 5'9 (see my full Barreto report) One scout said Torres seemed less interested and was already "shutting it down" early in showcase season and speculates he had a deal done as early as last November. The Cubs have been mentioned as his most likely landing spot for awhile and they have over $4.5 million to spend, so this marriage seems natural.

 

Predicted Team/Bonus: Chicago Cubs, $1.8 million

 

He ranks Jimenez third.

 

http://sbb.scout.com/2/1303154.html

[Guest]

Kiley McDaniel now has reports on all of his top five and predicts Jimene will also sign with the Cubs:

 

3. Eloy Jimenez, RF, Dominican Republic

 

6'4/205, R/R, July 2 Age: 16.60, Trainer/Agent: Amauris Nina

 

Tool Breakdown: Hit: 45/50, Power: 50/55, Run: 50/45, Field: 45/50, Throw: 50/50

 

Scouting Report: Jimenez will likely get the biggest bonus of the class as the prototypical toosly, high-upside, long-limbed corner outfield with present power and athleticism. The reason I have him third is that this class of player is often overrated on July 2nd and ends up producing huge strikeout numbers in the low minors. When 15/16 year old players have limited current tools, the long-levered present power guys with physical projection seem to rise to the top as it's hard to ignore balls flying over the fence.

 

All that said, Jimenez is still a fine prospect. He ran a 6.72 in the 60 in January which is an above average to plus time but players in Latin countries are coached on how to post fast times and generally get the most out of the showcase culture. Jimenez's speed plays more to average during games, likely losing a step as he fills out. He's fine defensively and his arm is often average but, at this age, arm strength can vary event-to-event and some have put a 55 on his arm.

 

While Jimenez hasn't hit in games like many scouts hoped he would or his tools would suggest, he isn't a wild-hacking all-power guy. He actually has a bat path that's in the zone a long time with power created by bat speed and strength rather than a steep angle that sacrifices contact. Some clubs buy into his hit-ability due to private looks they get when Jimenez camps at the academies of interested teams. Jimenez's agent has represented multiple million dollar players in the past, including a very similar player two years ago, Royals prospect Elier Hernandez, who got a $3.0 million bonus. Nina has done a good job marketing Jimenez to the clubs that matter (read: have the money to afford him). Jimenez's power is a present 50 for me, with obvious projection to 55 or even 60.

 

There are some small mechanical things I'd change about the swing, but Jimenez has good looseness and feel to his swing in BP, so some maturity and small adjustments could unlock his potential. The Astros were mentioned early on Jimenez as scouts were likely assuming Houston would use their bonus pool muscle to get the consensus top player. It turns out that's what the Cubs, with the 2nd biggest pool appear to be doing, heavily tied to Jimenez for months, likely for the top bonus in the class.

 

Predicted Team/Bonus: Chicago Cubs, $2.8 million.

[Guest]

Baseball America's list of top 30 available IFAs (doesn't include players who are suspended, were previously available like Jefferson Mejia nor does it include Cubans or Japanese players): http://www.baseballamerica.com/international/july-2-international-top-30-prospects-list/

 

Cubs targets in bold:

 

1. Eloy Jimenez, of, Dominican Republic (video)

2. Gleyber Torres, ss, Venezuela

3. Rafael Devers, 3b, Dominican Republic (video)

4. Luis Encarnacion, 3b, Dominican Republic (video)

5. Leonardo Molina, cf, Dominican Republic (video)

6. Marcos Diplan, rhp, Dominican Republic (video)

7. Yeyson Yrizarri, ss, Venezuela/Dominican Republic

8. Yeltsin Gudino, ss, Venezuela (video)

9. Micker Zapata, of, Dominican Republic

10. Jose Herrera, c, Venezuela

11. Carlos Herrera, ss, Venezuela

12. Marten Gasparini, ss, Italy

13. Erick Julio, rhp, Colombia

14. Jesus Lopez, ss, Nicaragua (video)

15. Lewin Diaz, of/1b, Dominican Republic (video)

16. Erling Moreno, rhp, Colombia (video)

17. Carlos Hiciano, ss, Dominican Republic (video)

18. Freddy Rodriguez, of, Venezuela (video)

19. Mayky Perez, rhp, Dominican Republic (video)

20. Nicolas Pierre, of, Dominican Republic

21. Greifer Andrade, of, Venezuela

22. Cristhian Vasquez, of, Venezuela

23. Jen-Ho Tseng, rhp, Taiwan (video)

24. Wilson Amador, ss, Dominican Republic

25. Ali Sanchez, c, Venezuela

26. Michael de Leon, ss, Dominican Republic (video)

27. Ricardo Sanchez, lhp, Venezuela

28. Carlos Talavera, of, Venezuela (video)

29. Anderson Franco, 3b, Dominican Republic (video)

30. Luis Carpio, ss, Venezuela

[Guest]

Badler's scouting report of players the Cubs are interested in (the reports go with the list in my previous post, so nothing on Jefferson Mejia, a pitcher the Cubs are also linked to):

 

1. Eloy Jimenez, of, Dominican Republic

Born: Nov. 27, 1996. Ht.: 6-4. Wt.: 200. B-T: R-R.

 

It’s hard to find one player who clearly stands above the rest in this year’s international signing class, but Jimenez is the closest thing to a consensus choice. He has traveled to play in international tournaments going back to 2008, when he played in the Cal Ripken World Series in Aberdeen, Md., and was teammates with Mets shortstop Amed Rosario. He went to Miami to play for the Dominican team that won its third consecutive championship in the Reviving Baseball in Inner Cities World Series junior division last summer, following Nomar Mazara and Ronald Guzman of the Rangers in 2011 and Gustavo Cabrera of the Giants in 2012.

 

Jimenez plays in the International Prospect League and trains with Amauris Nina, the same trainer who produced Royals $3 million outfielder Elier Hernandez in 2011, and scouts think the two are comparable. Several teams see Jimenez as a better version of Hernandez. He has good baseball instincts, but his bat isn’t as advanced as Guzman’s or last year’s No. 1 prospect, Blue Jays Venezuelan shortstop Franklin Barreto. Some scouts have seen him hit in games, while others haven’t seen the game dominance that would merit the type of bonus he’s expected to command. His long arms create length to his swing and he will need to keep his hips from flying open too early, but he has good hand-eye coordination and uses the middle of the field. Jimenez has average raw power and a flat swing that results in hard line drives rather than loft power. With his size and strength potential, he could grow into above-average power. Some scouts think he has the ingredients to hit, so it may be a matter of making subtle adjustments.

 

Jimenez is athletic for his size and in January ran the 60-yard dash in 6.72 seconds, which is above-average speed. Others have said his speed plays closer to average and because of his frame and unusual gait, he will continue to slow down as he fills out, so he’s a corner outfielder all the way. With a slightly above-average arm, he should be able to play right field. The Cubs have the second-highest international bonus pool this year and are seen as the favorites to sign Jimenez, whose price tag is expected to be in the $2.4 million-$2.8 million neighborhood.

 

2. Gleyber Torres, ss, Venezuela

Born: Dec. 13, 1996. Ht.: 5-11. Wt.: 185. B-T: R-R.

 

Every year trainer Ciro Barrios has some of the most expensive players in Venezuela. His best prospect yet, Barreto, signed with the Blue Jays last year for $1.45 million, and Torres is the top Venezuelan prospect this year, though he isn’t as advanced as Barreto.

 

Torres is a savvy player with present skills and the potential for five average or better tools. He has a clean, compact stroke, hits in games and shows good power projection, although he mostly works the gaps right now. He has good bat speed and hand-eye coordination to put the ball in play, although he can be a bit of a front-foot hitter and tends to pull off the ball at times.

 

Some scouts believe Torres is a true shortstop, while others think he’s not athletic enough. He could end up being a guy who splits time between shortstop, third base and second base, with a skill set that draws comparisons to Freddy Sanchez. He has good hands and a strong arm, but he doesn’t have the classic wiry shortstop frame and is already fairly filled out. Back in November, Torres showed above-average speed, but more recently he’s been running closer to average.

 

Some scouts wonder if Torres has just been coasting because he knows it’s unlikely anyone has the budget to pay him more than the Cubs, the team he’s most associated with. He’s expected to be the top-paid player in Venezuela, and some scouts prefer him to Jimenez. The two may end up being teammates soon.

 

16. Erling Moreno, rhp, Colombia

Born: Jan. 13, 1997. Ht.: 6-3. Wt.: 190. B-T: R-R.

 

Erick Julio and Moreno are the best of Colombia’s bumper crop of pitchers, though lefthander Luis Barrios could also end up with a mid-six-figure bonus. While Julio stands out for his feel for pitching and projection for three pitches, Moreno has a bigger frame and projects to be more of a power pitcher.

 

Moreno doesn’t have a plus fastball yet, working anywhere from 87-90 mph, but he has plenty of room to add weight and velocity so he could throw in the mid-90s eventually. He gets good angle on his fastball and works down in the strike zone. He keeps hitters off his fastball with a solid changeup, a pitch that some scouts think is ahead of his breaking ball. Other scouts prefer his breaking ball and think it’s a projectable pitch. Moreno, who trains with Edinson Renteria, has drawn a lot of interest from the Cubs.

[Guest]

And now McDaniel has expanded his list from 10 to 32. I've bolder Cubs targets:

 

To make it clear, the top 10 players are ranked in order of my preference from talking to scouts and scouting nine of the ten in person. Click on their name to get the link to their videos, or click on the link about to see the video and full report for my top 5, with players 6-10 going up later today.

 

The next 22 players are in order of the bonus I predict they will receive. This group's bonuses should range from about $500,000 to about $1.5 million.

 

 

Top 10 July 2nd Prospects

 

1. Gleyber Torres, SS, Venezuela

2. Rafael Devers, 3B, Dominican Republic

3. Eloy Jimenez, RF, Dominican Republic

4. Micker Zapata, RF, Dominican Republic

5. Leonardo Molina, CF, Dominican Republic

6. Yeltsin Gudino, SS, Venezuela

7. Jesus Lopez, 2B, Nicaragua

8. Luis Encarnacion, 3B, Dominican Republic

9. Marcos Diplan, RHP, Dominican Republic

10. Carlos Hiciano, SS, Dominican Republic

 

Next 22 Prospects By Projected Bonus

 

11. Jose Herrera, C, Venezuela

12. Marten Gasparini, SS, Italy

13. Lewin Diaz, 1B, Dominican Republic

14. Lucas Tirado, SS, Dominican Republic

15. Greifer Andrade, OF, Venezuela

16. Yeyson Yriazzi, SS, Dominican Republic

17. Edgar Arredondo, RHP, Mexico

18. Anderson Franco, 3B, Dominican Republic

19. Franly Mallen, SS, Dominican Republic

20. Christian Vasquez, OF, Venezuela

21. Erick Julio, RHP, Colombia

22. Jose Almonte, OF, Dominican Republic

23. Ricardo Sanchez, LHP, Venezuela

24. Mayky Perez, RHP, Dominican Republic

25. Erling Moreno, RHP, Colombia

26. Yohan Aybar, OF, Dominican Republic

27. Luis Barrios, LHP, Colombia

28. Carlos Herrera, SS, Venezuela

29. Freddy Rodriguez, OF, Dominican Republic

30. Yonauris Rodriguez, SS, Dominican Republic

31. Michael DeLeon, SS, Dominican Republic

32. Bryan Lizardo, 3B, Dominican Republic

[Warpticon]

I'm so weirded out by the ages listed to two decimal places.