Edwin Jackson Signs w/ Cubs: 4 years/$52 M

[Guest]

@fangraphs: FanGraphs: Cubs Sign Jackson http://bit.ly/R7Cpv2

 

The idea that bad-to-mediocre teams shouldn’t try to improve their clubs is just flat out wrong. We simply don’t know how to predict the future with enough accuracy to suggest that teams that don’t look like contenders should just lose on purpose. The marginal value of a win is higher for teams that are closer to contention, but it’s not zero for teams that are still working on stockpiling talent. And, when you have a chance to add a valuable player, that is stockpiling talent. Jackson wasn’t signed to a one year deal, and he’s not likely to turn into a useless waste of cash after this season. The Cubs just signed a quality starter for multiple years, and the truth about not being able to predict the future goes even more for years beyond the next one. We have no idea what the 2014 Cubs are going to look like, but it’s quite possible that their aggressive moves to improve this winter will have laid the foundation for them to make a run up the NL Central standings within the next couple of years.

 

ut we should note that Edwin Jackson makes them better, and this price for Edwin Jackson is still completely reasonable based on his established performance level. That the Cubs aren’t yet obvious contenders shouldn’t cause us to tell them to stop trying to improve. By bringing in Jackson and Carlos Villanueva today, while already adding Scott Baker and Scott Feldman, the Cubs have now acquired four interesting starting pitchers this winter. They’ve rebuilt their entire rotation, essentially, and have set themselves up to be able to trade Matt Garza — after he proves he’s healthy, anyway — without it creating a huge problem for their Major League team. They did the same drastic overhaul of their rotation that the Twins and Royals went after this winter, just they did it without giving up useful Major League outfielders or top outfield prospects in the process.

 

The Cubs are a big market team. They needed to add talent to make any kind of serious playoff run in the future. They might not be ready to make that run in 2013, but they’ve given themselves a better chance to be a surprise team next year, and now they’ve solidified their rotation beyond next year with a quality pitcher at a decent price.

 

For Jackson, after years of getting traded and changing teams every year, he now has some security. And he has that security with a team that has made some big strides this winter, improving both their present and their future at the same time.

 

 

I really am liking Dave Cameron a lot more lately.

Edited December 20, 2012 by David

[jersey cubs fan]

I am a big fan of our FO, but this season could possibly end up being just as bad as last season. Garza and Baker are question marks, Fuji has never pitched in the states, Feldman isnt exactly a TOR pitcher, and our offense isnt in any better shape than it was last year. A whole lot of things have to go right for this team to make the playoffs this season. And at this point I dont see Bourn being the answer to our offensive problems. So we may have to lose a shark or garza type in a trade to bolster our lineup. I like the depth of assets they have created for us, but we are a still a couple of moves away from this off season being a HUGE success..

 

As Kyle has made it his mission in life to report, I really doubt this year's team can be as bad as last year's just based off of the almost inevitable improvement from last year's worst pitchers to who will be this year's worst pitchers.

[marc_foust]

I am a big fan of our FO, but this season could possibly end up being just as bad as last season. Garza and Baker are question marks, Fuji has never pitched in the states, Feldman isnt exactly a TOR pitcher, and our offense isnt in any better shape than it was last year. A whole lot of things have to go right for this team to make the playoffs this season. And at this point I dont see Bourn being the answer to our offensive problems. So we may have to lose a shark or garza type in a trade to bolster our lineup. I like the depth of assets they have created for us, but we are a still a couple of moves away from this off season being a HUGE success..

 

As Kyle has made it his mission in life to report, I really doubt this year's team can be as bad as last year's just based off of the almost inevitable improvement from last year's worst pitchers to who will be this year's worst pitchers.

 

I dont truly believe this team will lose 100 games or anything. Edwin Jackson and some value signings doesnt necessarilly put us on par with the Cardinals next season either. I like the value in the guys we got and love the direction this team is heading in. But until we add some game changers to our team, its hard to get too excited about our chances for the upcoming season. But I love what the FO has done since taking over. The last week or so with the Sanchez dealings and signing of jackson has reassured my hope that this will be a winning organization sooner rather than later. But if we do indeed trade for example, Soriano and Shark, for parts to improve our club that doesnt neccesarily improve our club this season we could be in a bad place for this season.

[neely crenshaw]

the problem is we are still recovering from the hole created at the deadline at the major league level.

Truth is we have very little to no improvement in the line up and although this signing helps, we still aren't where we started had last year in the rotation.

Jackson can fill dempster's normal role but he was an absolute out of his mind stud last year posting 2.25 era up to aug 1st.

Maholm was better than anyone would have guessed and I'm not sure either scott will do that. Garza is a question mark, and shark has to build on what looks really good. Obviously villanueva, wood or one of the scotts is an upgrade over volstad /wood from last year.

We have definitely made steps but on paper we aren't up to where we started last year.

That being said at least we a glimmer of hope that something will be better this spring

 

I do think this means some is going from the staff to get some lineup help, It would seem to be a couple from the 40 man

Edited December 20, 2012 by neely crenshaw

[jersey cubs fan]

I don't get how we aren't "on paper" as good as we were last year at the start of the year. Last year's team wasn't any good at the start of the year. They were bad on paper. This year's team isn't any worse.

[Hairyducked Idiot]

As Kyle has made it his mission in life to report

 

They stopped making Harry Potter books, what else was there to do?

[marc_foust]

I don't get how we aren't "on paper" as good as we were last year at the start of the year. Last year's team wasn't any good at the start of the year. They were bad on paper. This year's team isn't any worse.

 

 

I know they sucked last year but we had Byrd in CF and Soto at C, who were on paper supposed to be above avg. There was hope for Stewart, Castro and LaHair. Dempster's and possibly Maholm performance will realistically not be matched by any individual player this season. The hope is that the upgrade in the rest of the rotation and bullpen will help temper those losses.

 

DDJ, Castro, Soriano, Lahair, Byrd, Soto, Stewart, barney

vs

DDJ, Castro, Rizzo, Soriano, Stewart, Shierholtz, Castillo, Barney

[Bryants Disco Ball]

I think I'm officially not disappointed with this offseason.

 

It's fun having smart guys doing things.

 

They might not do the dumber stuff we all secretly (or not so secretly) wish they would

 

That's some passive aggressive horse [expletive]

 

He's entitled to rub some noses in it. He was patient and showed some faith in the front office.

 

Rub noses in what? Nothing has been accomplished. Nothing at all. Last year sucked and it didn't have to.

 

Please. You have started to like what we are doing, and you don't know how to react now that these warm fuzzy feelings have started to creep in.

 

The silly bastard warning was on high for a long time around here. It has started to level off and will continue to go down until all silly bastards are on board with what we are doing.

[jersey cubs fan]

There was hope for ... LaHair.

 

No.

 

No, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no.

 

No!

[jersey cubs fan]

Please. You have started to like what we are doing, and you don't know how to react now that these warm fuzzy feelings have started to creep in.

 

The silly bastard warning was on high for a long time around here. It has started to level off and will continue to go down until all silly bastards are on board with what we are doing.

 

Well, this is idiotic.

[Guest]

There was hope for ... LaHair.

 

No.

 

No, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no.

 

No!

 

And the amazing thing is he ended up outhitting 99% of the league for like 1.5 months or something. The first 1.5 months, so his numbers looked Pujols like for a fairly substantial stretch of time.

 

Not being sarcastic at all. That [expletive] was ridiculous.

[SouthSideRyan]

Please. You have started to like what we are doing, and you don't know how to react now that these warm fuzzy feelings have started to creep in.

 

The silly bastard warning was on high for a long time around here. It has started to level off and will continue to go down until all silly bastards are on board with what we are doing.

 

Well, this is idiotic.

 

Rob has decreed it's ok

[neely crenshaw]

I don't get how we aren't "on paper" as good as we were last year at the start of the year. Last year's team wasn't any good at the start of the year. They were bad on paper. This year's team isn't any worse.

Offensively from the start last year what has changed? From the end of last season, we have basically 1 change in a lineup that was bottom 3 in runs and slugging, bottom 2 in ops and ob%. I am not sure nate schierholtz will be the big a fix.

On the mound

IF you call Shark and Garza even (questionable with health issues) from last year to this year then:

Jackson replaces Dempster, usually I'd call it pretty even but Dempster was out of his mind last year. I don't see anyone on the staff putting up that 2.25 era over their 1st 18 starts.

Maholm also was way above what I expected. 9-6 with a 3.74 era...I am not betting either feldman nor Baker matches that.

Then some combo of the "scotts" ,villanueva or wood replaces volstad(obviously a step up)

the bullpen looks better but is unproven especially fukikawa.Other than that the main guys are the same marmol,camp,and russell.

 

So I would say on paper we aren't better than the start of last year. We really need a bat, and it probably needs to be at 3rd.

 

We aren't building from what we had at the start of the season last year, we are building from the end. We gave away most of are veteran assets save for Soriano and Garza. We finished last year with 1 and 1/2 true major league starters, 1 more on the DL.

2 outfielders, no 3B, a young SS and 1B, a defensive 2b and unproven catchers. we at least now have 6 to 7 real options to fill the rotation and another major league outfielder.

baby steps...

Edited December 20, 2012 by neely crenshaw

[jersey cubs fan]

Offensively from the start last year what has changed? From the end of last season,

 

 

So I would say on paper we aren't better than the start of last year.

 

We're all over the map here. Comparing where we were last year at this time, last year on opening day and last year at the end of the season are fairly different categories.

 

 

The Cubs weren't any good at the plate last year and it is going to be a struggle again this year. I've been wanting some sort of bat upgrade for a while and I'm still hoping to get one. That being said, I think this lineup should at least duplicate what they did last year. They were 14th in runs scored and 15th in OPS. They got bottom of the barrel production at a few positions and with the exception of 3B should be able to avoid bottom of the barrel at those positions this year, or at least be no worse. I think this year's lineup holds its own against last year's lineup and this year's pitching staff should be better than last year's. There really isn't much of a hurdle to cross.

[javy knows my name]

I don't get how we aren't "on paper" as good as we were last year at the start of the year. Last year's team wasn't any good at the start of the year. They were bad on paper. This year's team isn't any worse.

Offensively from the start last year what has changed? From the end of last season, we have basically 1 change in a lineup that was bottom 3 in runs and slugging, bottom 2 in ops and ob%. I am not sure nate schierholtz will be the big a fix.

On the mound

IF you call Shark and Garza even (questionable with health issues) from last year to this year then:

Jackson replaces Dempster, usually I'd call it pretty even but Dempster was out of his mind last year. I don't see anyone on the staff putting up that 2.25 era over their 1st 18 starts.

Maholm also was way above what I expected. 9-6 with a 3.74 era...I am not betting either feldman nor Baker matches that.

Then some combo of the "scotts" ,villanueva or wood replaces volstad(obviously a step up)

the bullpen looks better but is unproven especially fukikawa.Other than that the main guys are the same marmol,camp,and russell.

 

So I would say on paper we aren't better than the start of last year. We really need a bat, and it probably needs to be at 3rd.

 

What do we call this shape you made? As Mike Schur would say, it's Escherian.

[minnesotacubsfan]

As Kyle has made it his mission in life to report

 

They stopped making Harry Potter books, what else was there to do?

 

Raise your kid

[jersey cubs fan]

As Kyle has made it his mission in life to report

 

They stopped making Harry Potter books, what else was there to do?

 

Raise your kid

 

that's what tv is for.

 

oh wait, is kyle the guy without tv?

[davell]

Heading into last year is different than looking back at what some guys actually DID last year. Shark was a total question mark, no one expected Dempster to be as good as he was, most likely expected a bit more out of Garza. Soto and Byrd flat out sucked when they were counted on to be average. Soriano overperformed on what was expected. It's all over the map. The way Kyle has broken things down IS the most honest way to look at things. We're heading into next year on paper slightly better than we were last year. To me, the difference is the depth now, even after a potential selloff, will keep us from trotting out the Jason Berkens of the world and therefore keeping us from completely tanking the second half.

[Hairyducked Idiot]

As Kyle has made it his mission in life to report

 

They stopped making Harry Potter books, what else was there to do?

 

Raise your kid

 

I just gone done wrestling a 50-pound, barely verbal toddler through a screaming, absolutely hysterical 10-minute diaper change that left him shaking and sobbing, then had to hold his arms down for five minutes to keep him from hitting himself until he calmed down.

 

I've earned a little Cubs optimism time.

[Hairyducked Idiot]

Heading into last year is different than looking back at what some guys actually DID last year. Shark was a total question mark, no one expected Dempster to be as good as he was, most likely expected a bit more out of Garza. Soto and Byrd flat out sucked when they were counted on to be average. Soriano overperformed on what was expected. It's all over the map. The way Kyle has broken things down IS the most honest way to look at things. We're heading into next year on paper slightly better than we were last year. To me, the difference is the depth now, even after a potential selloff, will keep us from trotting out the Jason Berkens of the world and therefore keeping us from completely tanking the second half.

 

We're a little better than we were last year. But yeah, I can see the point that we were probably not terrible on paper heading into last year either. But it's just hard for us to remember that sometimes there's positive variance, too. Not every season ends with half the rotation traded or on the DL.

[neely crenshaw]

I agree we don't have a huge hurdle to jump but most of that was because of the offense that is basically still here.

Up until Aug1st, we had dempster,maholm, shark and garza plus volstad/wood.

the first 4 were better than what any combo will probably bring this season.

Dempster was leading the league in era, Maholm finIshed in the top 20 in era. Ordinarily I would say our pick ups match dempster/maholm but unfortunately they have to replace pitchers who probably had their best year of their career.

 

We were on pace to win 66 games when Garza went down, and Dempster and Maholm were traded. we are better at one spot, even at 2, and not as good at 2.

bullpen is better but again the main guys are the same, and fujikawa will help but is unproven

The offense is the same.

so i don't see the upgrade from the start of last year, but I do see filling the holes left from the deadline deals.

[Rob]

 

Rub noses in what? Nothing has been accomplished. Nothing at all. Last year sucked and it didn't have to.

 

You are still holding to the ridiculous "we are awful and the front office isn't oing to sign anybody until 2015" mantra?

[neely crenshaw]

By the way..is this for sure? Don't want a repeat of earlier deals.

[jersey cubs fan]

 

Rub noses in what? Nothing has been accomplished. Nothing at all. Last year sucked and it didn't have to.

 

You are still holding to the ridiculous "we are awful and the front office isn't oing to sign anybody until 2015" mantra?

 

I've never held that mantra, just picked apart the notion that many people have spewed that we should wait to sign people until we're ready to be good.

 

Regardless, nothing has been accomplished. It looks on paper like they have managed to make this team moderately respectable next season. That isn't an accomplishment.

[Rob]

Please. You have started to like what we are doing, and you don't know how to react now that these warm fuzzy feelings have started to creep in.

 

The silly bastard warning was on high for a long time around here. It has started to level off and will continue to go down until all silly bastards are on board with what we are doing.

 

Well, this is idiotic.

 

Rob has decreed it's ok

 

I sure did. What's the point of being right if there's no gloating?