Re: Projecting the 2013 Cubs

[Sammy Sofa]

Not sure what the problem is. Last year, people were pretty accepting that it would be 2-3 years before things started looking better.

 

Some people were. Plenty weren't.

 

I think even the biggest supporters of building "the right way" were pretty iffy on being a bad team in 2014.

 

Right; even most of the people accepting that 2012 "had" to be terrible seemed to be talking like there would be clear improvement in 2013 on the path to them actually being competitive in 2014. Anyone saying they were expecting/fine with/welcoming 2-3 years of terrible baseball are either lying or masochists.

 

On paper, the 2013 team is a huge improvement.

 

Wait, what? Do you have no clue what last year's team was supposed to do on paper?

[Little Slide Rooter]

I should have said what last year's team actually did. And I don't mean the post-July disaster that sprinted to 100 losses.

[Guest]

i'm pretty sure that we all thought they'd be atrocious in 2012, and most of us predicted like 75-80 wins for this year. wsr with the rare win

[Hairyducked Idiot]

PECOTA likes to tweak its projections all through spring, but I'm pretty sure they were at 72 wins for the 2012 Cubs most of the year, and 76 for the 2013 Cubs.

[Sammy Sofa]

PECOTA likes to tweak its projections all through spring, but I'm pretty sure they were at 72 wins for the 2012 Cubs most of the year, and 76 for the 2013 Cubs.

 

Exactly.

[Guest]

so, they were improved from 2012 to 2013

[Sammy Sofa]

I wasn't disputing they were technically projected to do better; I'm disagreeing with the idea that 4 more wins, especially when you're talking about 72 vs. 76, is a "huge improvement." Going into this season the team was projected only to be slightly better than last year's team. There's little on paper or otherwise that significantly improved this year's team over last year's when both were starting the season.

[Guest]

hey i'm trying to do a good thing and give wsr a win here

[Hairyducked Idiot]

so, they were improved from 2012 to 2013

 

And I expect a similar improvement for 2014, which would put us around an 80-win projection.

 

But even that's going to take a lot of work. We're going to need to replace Garza, Feldman, Marmol, Camp and whoever we trade at the deadline this year just to get back to where we were going into this season, and then find improvements on top of that. We'll get some improvement from the infield developing, but the outfield should be aging just as fast.

 

Unless payroll gets cut again, the money should be there to replace all those guys and add one Jackson-sized piece, very similar to last offseason. The actual availability of players is going to be a much bigger challenge than finding the money for them. It's just a brutal, brutal free agency class coming up, and lots of other teams will have money to spend too.

 

All that should set the stage for 2015 to be the "fliip the switch" year they've talked about. There's a really good chance that'll be the first full year in the majors for at least one of our elite position prospects and probably the 2013 No. 2 pick (I'm guessing either Gray or Appel will get a very brief minor league taste at the end of this year, then start 2014 in XST before getting in a partial pro season with an innings limit and a big-league exposure at the end of the season).

 

Taking a 76-win-projected team into the upper-80s in one offseason with very little in the way of graduating prospects (Arodys Vizcaino is about the only guy in line for 2014 that really impresses me) just seem like way too tall of an order. They're going to need to do it in two steps.

[Vanilla Ice]

I've been very patient with Theo & Co throughout their process and I've always been okay with 2012 and 2013 as "tanked" seasons, from the beginning. However, if they can't come up with a competent major league team in 2014, that seems like a big failure.

 

At the same time, (pulling a WSR) what exact moves do the anti-tanking brigade wish we would have made that could have significantly improved our 2013 or 2014 forecast? I could be wrong, but I seem to recall similar amounts of support for Wilson and Darvish during that offseason on here. I will concede that Cespedes seems like a mistake at this point, but given the knowledge at the time, I'm not that upset by it.

 

I mean obviously the 2013 team is nowhere the product that we were hoping for when Theo was hired, but I have a hard time finding a realistic plan/team that would have been significantly better without the benefit of hindsight.

[Guest]

so, they were improved from 2012 to 2013

 

And I expect a similar improvement for 2014, which would put us around an 80-win projection.

 

But even that's going to take a lot of work. We're going to need to replace Garza, Feldman, Marmol, Camp and whoever we trade at the deadline this year just to get back to where we were going into this season, and then find improvements on top of that. We'll get some improvement from the infield developing, but the outfield should be aging just as fast.

 

Unless payroll gets cut again, the money should be there to replace all those guys and add one Jackson-sized piece, very similar to last offseason. The actual availability of players is going to be a much bigger challenge than finding the money for them. It's just a brutal, brutal free agency class coming up, and lots of other teams will have money to spend too.

 

All that should set the stage for 2015 to be the "fliip the switch" year they've talked about. There's a really good chance that'll be the first full year in the majors for at least one of our elite position prospects and probably the 2013 No. 2 pick (I'm guessing either Gray or Appel will get a very brief minor league taste at the end of this year, then start 2014 in XST before getting in a partial pro season with an innings limit and a big-league exposure at the end of the season).

 

Taking a 76-win-projected team into the upper-80s in one offseason with very little in the way of graduating prospects (Arodys Vizcaino is about the only guy in line for 2014 that really impresses me) just seem like way too tall of an order. They're going to need to do it in two steps.

 

If Appel/Gray start next year in extended spring training, he's either hurt or not good.

[Hairyducked Idiot]

If Appel/Gray start next year in extended spring training, he's either hurt or not good.

 

Really? It seems to me like they start almost everyone there.

[Guest]

wouldn't appel be expected to be in the opening day rotation for 2014?

[davell]

wouldn't appel be expected to be in the opening day rotation for 2014?

I doubt our FO would do that with him honestly. Maybe by midseason though. I could see us giving him a few major league innings this year though in September.

[RynoRules]

I'll forgive them if they (at minimum) make a serious run at Cano.

[Guest]

wouldn't appel be expected to be in the opening day rotation for 2014?

I doubt our FO would do that with him honestly. Maybe by midseason though. I could see us giving him a few major league innings this year though in September.

 

Yeah, I was thinking he'd get the Prior treatment (not to say that he's as good).

[jersey cubs fan]

wouldn't appel be expected to be in the opening day rotation for 2014?

I doubt our FO would do that with him honestly. Maybe by midseason though. I could see us giving him a few major league innings this year though in September.

 

Yeah, I was thinking he'd get the Prior treatment (not to say that he's as good).

 

Mark Prior was drafted at age 20 and made his major league debut at 21. Mark Appel is already 21 and will be 22 this summer. He is probably going to put up a stink about being given major league service time ASAP, and not held back for financial reasons.

[mul21]

As much as it's a crapshoot and we bitched about Hendry doing it, I really think a chunk of the budget for next year needs to be spent on viable bullpen arms. They'd be close to .500 if they could have just held on to some of these games late. I realize that's not the full solution, but it's such an obvious thing to fix and is without question the most frustrating way to lose a game. It would be helpful if they were scoring more than 2 runs in 9 innings as well, especially in a band box like GAB.

[Guest]

wouldn't appel be expected to be in the opening day rotation for 2014?

I doubt our FO would do that with him honestly. Maybe by midseason though. I could see us giving him a few major league innings this year though in September.

 

Yeah, I was thinking he'd get the Prior treatment (not to say that he's as good).

 

Mark Prior was drafted at age 20 and made his major league debut at 21. Mark Appel is already 21 and will be 22 this summer. He is probably going to put up a stink about being given major league service time ASAP, and not held back for financial reasons.

 

I don't think he'd be held back for financial reasons. I just mean I figure he'll get a few token starts in the minors and then get called up very quickly.

[Guest]

As much as it's a crapshoot and we bitched about Hendry doing it, I really think a chunk of the budget for next year needs to be spent on viable bullpen arms. They'd be close to .500 if they could have just held on to some of these games late. I realize that's not the full solution, but it's such an obvious thing to fix and is without question the most frustrating way to lose a game. It would be helpful if they were scoring more than 2 runs in 9 innings as well, especially in a band box like GAB.

 

Would've been nice to have gotten Jason Grilli to leave Pittsburgh.

[jersey cubs fan]

I don't think he'd be held back for financial reasons. I just mean I figure he'll get a few token starts in the minors and then get called up very quickly.

 

Wouldn't those token starts take place this summer? Prior didn't pitch for the Cubs after the draft. I don't recall the story around his negotiations, or why he didn't start at all that summer. But part of the excuse for starting him in the minors the year after the draft was that he never pitched as a pro.

[SouthSideRyan]

wouldn't appel be expected to be in the opening day rotation for 2014?

 

I really doubt it due to service time issues. Doubly so if they don't plan on competing that year either.

[KingCubsFan]

I don't think he'd be held back for financial reasons. I just mean I figure he'll get a few token starts in the minors and then get called up very quickly.

 

Wouldn't those token starts take place this summer? Prior didn't pitch for the Cubs after the draft. I don't recall the story around his negotiations, or why he didn't start at all that summer. But part of the excuse for starting him in the minors the year after the draft was that he never pitched as a pro.

How many innings will he be at by the end of the college season?

[Guest]

I don't think he'd be held back for financial reasons. I just mean I figure he'll get a few token starts in the minors and then get called up very quickly.

 

Wouldn't those token starts take place this summer? Prior didn't pitch for the Cubs after the draft. I don't recall the story around his negotiations, or why he didn't start at all that summer. But part of the excuse for starting him in the minors the year after the draft was that he never pitched as a pro.

 

Suppose that depends on how long it takes him to sign, although I guess the deadline would ensure it would be early enough.

[Guest]

If Appel/Gray start next year in extended spring training, he's either hurt or not good.

 

Really? It seems to me like they start almost everyone there.

 

High school or rehab guys, yes. Pierce Johnson is in Kane County.