Re: Projecting the 2013 Cubs

[Sosa21MVP]

How much do you think our 78 win PECTOA projection grows with Ramirez at 3B vs. what we actually came into the season with? Is a team projected to put up 81 wins enough to actually attempt to compete?

 

In this division, playing .500 ball is going to keep a team in the race for a while.

 

Are you imlpying that this division is weak?

 

I'm implying that nobody is going to run away with this division.

[Guest]

How much do you think our 78 win PECTOA projection grows with Ramirez at 3B vs. what we actually came into the season with? Is a team projected to put up 81 wins enough to actually attempt to compete?

 

In this division, playing .500 ball is going to keep a team in the race for a while.

 

Are you imlpying that this division is weak?

 

I'm implying that nobody is going to run away with this division.

 

The Reds and Cards will probably both win a good amount of games..enough so that playing .500 ball isn't keeping you in the divisional race all that long, IMO.

[Sosa21MVP]

How much do you think our 78 win PECTOA projection grows with Ramirez at 3B vs. what we actually came into the season with? Is a team projected to put up 81 wins enough to actually attempt to compete?

 

In this division, playing .500 ball is going to keep a team in the race for a while.

 

Are you imlpying that this division is weak?

 

I'm implying that nobody is going to run away with this division.

 

The Reds and Cards will probably both win a good amount of games..enough so that playing .500 ball isn't keeping you in the divisional race all that long, IMO.

 

The season would still be more entertaining. If you are playing .500 and go on a hot streak, you can at least pretend to be in contention even if it is temporary. If you are buried in a hole under .500 and go on a hot streak, well you are still buried in a hole.

[Guest]

How much do you think our 78 win PECTOA projection grows with Ramirez at 3B vs. what we actually came into the season with? Is a team projected to put up 81 wins enough to actually attempt to compete?

 

I can appreciate the point (and the frustration with "what difference does it make? arguments), but Ramirez is really a bad example to use here. 34 year old Ramirez having the 2nd best offensive and defensive season of his career isn't something you can reasonable expect or even hope for. And more to the point, Ramirez's value declines at the time when he's most needed. That's not saying that no FA is ever a good idea because we're bad now(and therefore always will be), but Ramirez specifically is at the worst end of that continuum.

[Tracer Bullet]

If Theo was worried about your praise, he probably would have just signed ARam bc it would have netted a couple more wins and who cares about the future. Thankfully he's using these years of overhaul wisely instead.

 

This stupidity is why I chimed in on Kyle's message about backup MIF

 

The Cubs got ~ negative 1 bWAR from their 3B last year, and Ramirez put up 5.6. If you take the Cubs 69 win pace from when they stopped trying you've got a 75-76 win team.

 

Amazing. He out ops'd zips by nearly 1.000. He was projected by pecota for a 2.2 WAR which he more than doubled. He even exceeded Bill James predictions.

 

Look if Theo knew what ARam would do in 2012 he likely signs him last year. But hindsight is helpful here. Given the information available I don't think I would have signed him to that contract either.

 

What do I know though. Those 76 wins would have jumped us up 0 spots in the standings last year. Guess I'm the dummy.

 

Right, unless a move (even one that's a great value like ARam) puts you at 90 wins, you shouldn't make it.

 

Again, I ask how furious you were over all those free agents we signed this offseason? Hoho, hehe, how stupid for us to sign a competent RF this year!! So glad we'll win 71 this year instead of 67!!

 

We're again equating $12m per for 3 years for ages 34-36 - at least one and probably 2 years of which we just don't have the funds to put up the 85+ wins necessary to really make a run - we're equating that with $2m for one year of RF? Also, ARam would have had 10/5 rights making him untradeable whereas we can flip any or all of the FAs we signed for future assets.

 

The bottom line is I don't think the Cubs had the wherewithal to compete in 2012 or 2013, so I'm ok with not spending big money to try to finish 10 games out of the playoffs instead of 20. You clearly disagree and I don't think either of us are changing our minds.

[KingCubsFan]

If Theo was worried about your praise, he probably would have just signed ARam bc it would have netted a couple more wins and who cares about the future. Thankfully he's using these years of overhaul wisely instead.

 

This stupidity is why I chimed in on Kyle's message about backup MIF

 

The Cubs got ~ negative 1 bWAR from their 3B last year, and Ramirez put up 5.6. If you take the Cubs 69 win pace from when they stopped trying you've got a 75-76 win team.

And that takes us from Gray/Appel to someone like Austin Meadows. And Ramirez is untradeable even with a great year. And we still don't have a long-term answer for third base.

[SouthSideRyan]

If Theo was worried about your praise, he probably would have just signed ARam bc it would have netted a couple more wins and who cares about the future. Thankfully he's using these years of overhaul wisely instead.

 

This stupidity is why I chimed in on Kyle's message about backup MIF

 

The Cubs got ~ negative 1 bWAR from their 3B last year, and Ramirez put up 5.6. If you take the Cubs 69 win pace from when they stopped trying you've got a 75-76 win team.

And that takes us from Gray/Appel to someone like Austin Meadows. And Ramirez is untradeable even with a great year. And we still don't have a long-term answer for third base.

 

Right, because what's important is not spending money and getting high draft picks until...some point in the future when it's not important.

 

How angry were you about the contracts we signed this offseason? Once pythagoras balances out those players of actual worth are going to kill us in the always hilarious fecal league.

[KingCubsFan]

If Theo was worried about your praise, he probably would have just signed ARam bc it would have netted a couple more wins and who cares about the future. Thankfully he's using these years of overhaul wisely instead.

 

This stupidity is why I chimed in on Kyle's message about backup MIF

 

The Cubs got ~ negative 1 bWAR from their 3B last year, and Ramirez put up 5.6. If you take the Cubs 69 win pace from when they stopped trying you've got a 75-76 win team.

And that takes us from Gray/Appel to someone like Austin Meadows. And Ramirez is untradeable even with a great year. And we still don't have a long-term answer for third base.

 

Right, because what's important is not spending money and getting high draft picks until...some point in the future when it's not important.

 

How angry were you about the contracts we signed this offseason? Once pythagoras balances out those players of actual worth are going to kill us in the always hilarious fecal league.

There's a few differences between the players we signed this year and someone like Aramis. The guys we signed this year were younger and could either be seen as long-term pieces or guys who were relatively inexpensive that, if they performed, could be traded for another asset. And if they sucked (like Ian Stewart), they could be easily discarded and replaced. With his 10/5 rights, Ramirez didn't really serve any of those purposes.

[SouthSideRyan]

I just don't see how the team is ever supposed to get better by exclusively signing younger guys who you can trade away. None of the guys we'll be trading in July are going to bring back a great return and 2014 looks really bleak to me right now which is just silly.

[Tracer Bullet]

I just don't see how the team is ever supposed to get better by exclusively signing younger guys who you can trade away. None of the guys we'll be trading in July are going to bring back a great return and 2014 looks really bleak to me right now which is just silly.

 

Ideally the farm system wouldn't have been so bad or we could spend $200m every year on the ML payroll. But as much as it sucks knowing the team won't compete, I'm willing to spend a couple years letting the FO build a sustainable system. You may not be willing to give them that time without competing sooner.

[SouthSideRyan]

I just don't see how the team is ever supposed to get better by exclusively signing younger guys who you can trade away. None of the guys we'll be trading in July are going to bring back a great return and 2014 looks really bleak to me right now which is just silly.

 

Ideally the farm system wouldn't have been so bad or we could spend $200m every year on the ML payroll. But as much as it sucks knowing the team won't compete, I'm willing to spend a couple years letting the FO build a sustainable system. You may not be willing to give them that time without competing sooner.

 

Yep, those are the 2 options. Be a sucky bunch of sucks, or spend 200M on payroll.

 

ETA: Just because you're arguing against Kyle doesn't mean you're not being as Kyle as he is.

 

ETA: And the payroll thing is the biggest annoyance of all for me. Why Tom Ricketts is getting such a pass on this is maddening.

[Tracer Bullet]

I just don't see how the team is ever supposed to get better by exclusively signing younger guys who you can trade away. None of the guys we'll be trading in July are going to bring back a great return and 2014 looks really bleak to me right now which is just silly.

 

Ideally the farm system wouldn't have been so bad or we could spend $200m every year on the ML payroll. But as much as it sucks knowing the team won't compete, I'm willing to spend a couple years letting the FO build a sustainable system. You may not be willing to give them that time without competing sooner.

 

Yep, those are the 2 options. Be a sucky bunch of sucks, or spend 200M on payroll.

 

ETA: Just because you're arguing against Kyle doesn't mean you're not being as Kyle as he is.

 

Dude I'm not saying those are the only 2 options. I'm saying I understand that it sucks and I can understand if you aren't as willing to wait to be competitive.

 

ETA (not really bc I didn't edit anything) Just bc you're a 1%er doesn't mean you need to be a jerk to everyone all the time. Save it for the guy who is a minute late with your afternoon tea.

 

ETA (for reals) mostly I'm just tired of the argument as we disagree on the key issue so what's the point?

[SouthSideRyan]

I laughed.

[Sammy Sofa]

Actually what I'm saying is that both Ricketts and Theo have convinced many of you that things were worse than anyone could imagine when they took over and now we should wait patiently while they rake in huge profits while fielding a terrible team. Ricketts knew about the state of the economy (in Chicago and in Illinois), the politics of Chicago, the rooftop agreement, the landmark status of Wrigley, the horrible physical condition of Wrigley, etc. when he bought the team. Theo knew about the terrible farm system, the payroll, the CBA, the lack of statistics used by the Cubs, the bad ML roster, etc. when he took the job. Hopefully Theo can build the perennial contender that he promised us, but I need to start seeing some results at the ML level next year.

 

So they somehow have convinced many of us that it's worse...than the plethora of terrible things you yourself just listed. Gotcha.

 

I keep reading posts about Theo saying that "things were worse than he thought", "it might take longer than we hoped", etc. Ricketts and Theo are extremely smart and both of them walked into this situation knowing exactly what they were getting into, so I'm saying I'm tired of reading posts saying we might be terrible again next year and Theo should be considered successful if 3 years from now we're still under .500 and some of his prospects are producing at the ML level.

 

Running/owning a baseball team isn't a static process; there are going to be changes or developments that cause a plan or an expectation to change. To say that they're "smart enough" like they should have known everything and been able to predict everything about running the team is a pointlessly ridiculous expectation.

[Sammy Sofa]

Man, who is giving the Ricketts a pass? I'm pissed as hell at the financial restrictions seemingly in place for a big market team like this.

[USSoccer]

If Theo was worried about your praise, he probably would have just signed ARam bc it would have netted a couple more wins and who cares about the future. Thankfully he's using these years of overhaul wisely instead.

 

This stupidity is why I chimed in on Kyle's message about backup MIF

 

The Cubs got ~ negative 1 bWAR from their 3B last year, and Ramirez put up 5.6. If you take the Cubs 69 win pace from when they stopped trying you've got a 75-76 win team.

And that takes us from Gray/Appel to someone like Austin Meadows. And Ramirez is untradeable even with a great year. And we still don't have a long-term answer for third base.

 

There's a value in retaining a player who'd been a very, very good player for the team for almost a decade. Both in terms of attendance revenue-people are probably going to be more willing to see an 80-ish win team than a 65-ish win team, and in terms of general entertainment.

 

High draft picks are nice and all, but at the end of the day, they are still rolls of the dice. To make an analogy, lets say you have a 6-sided dice. For the top, top, top guys, you can roll 5 out of the 6 numbers and you get a very good MLB player. Gray/Appel to Meadows is like saying instead of 4 of six numbers, it's 3 of six. That's a stupid way of saying that very few of them are sure things, and most prospects don't reach anything near their ceiling on draft day.

 

Also, the idea that they can build a team in 3-ish years by signing guys and flipping them along with sucking and drafting 4th instead of 14th is misguided. And it's annoying and uninteresting as hell to watch.

[Backtobanks]

Actually what I'm saying is that both Ricketts and Theo have convinced many of you that things were worse than anyone could imagine when they took over and now we should wait patiently while they rake in huge profits while fielding a terrible team. Ricketts knew about the state of the economy (in Chicago and in Illinois), the politics of Chicago, the rooftop agreement, the landmark status of Wrigley, the horrible physical condition of Wrigley, etc. when he bought the team. Theo knew about the terrible farm system, the payroll, the CBA, the lack of statistics used by the Cubs, the bad ML roster, etc. when he took the job. Hopefully Theo can build the perennial contender that he promised us, but I need to start seeing some results at the ML level next year.

 

So they somehow have convinced many of us that it's worse...than the plethora of terrible things you yourself just listed. Gotcha.

 

I keep reading posts about Theo saying that "things were worse than he thought", "it might take longer than we hoped", etc. Ricketts and Theo are extremely smart and both of them walked into this situation knowing exactly what they were getting into, so I'm saying I'm tired of reading posts saying we might be terrible again next year and Theo should be considered successful if 3 years from now we're still under .500 and some of his prospects are producing at the ML level.

 

Running/owning a baseball team isn't a static process; there are going to be changes or developments that cause a plan or an expectation to change. To say that they're "smart enough" like they should have known everything and been able to predict everything about running the team is a pointlessly ridiculous expectation.

 

There you go giving Ricketts a pass. He is an extremely successful businessman and owning a business isn't static either. So exactly what has changed drastically from what he knew (or should have known) when he bought the Cubs?

[Guest]

I just don't see how the team is ever supposed to get better by exclusively signing younger guys who you can trade away. None of the guys we'll be trading in July are going to bring back a great return and 2014 looks really bleak to me right now which is just silly.

 

Seems like an odd sentiment for 2014 considering the incredible starts from the new regulars(Castillo, Schierholtz, Villanueva, Wood).

[mul21]

 

There you go giving Ricketts a pass. He is an extremely successful businessman and owning a business isn't static either. So exactly what has changed drastically from what he knew (or should have known) when he bought the Cubs?

 

Well, for starters, there's a hard cap on spending in the draft. There's no "public" money being contributed to the Wrigley renovation. The draft pick compensation possibilities are greatly diminished. The money you can spend internationally is restricted. What the hell else do you need?

 

No, none of us are happy about the state of the ML team, but due to some unforeseen circumstances things haven't progressed as quickly as anyone would have liked. It's not excusing them, it's being reasonable about the task they've undertaken and the time frame they're operating on. If they're not significantly better next year, I'll be kind of ticked.

[Hairyducked Idiot]

I just don't see how the team is ever supposed to get better by exclusively signing younger guys who you can trade away. None of the guys we'll be trading in July are going to bring back a great return and 2014 looks really bleak to me right now which is just silly.

 

Seems like an odd sentiment for 2014 considering the incredible starts from the new regulars(Castillo, Schierholtz, Villanueva, Wood).

 

Honestly, with one frustrating (or irrelevant, depending on your point of view) exception, I really liked what they did with the last offseason. It just wasn't nearly enough because of the hole they dug the year before.

[davell]

USS, the plan isn't waiting on all of our draft picks to turn into stars, its finding a nucleus, trading minor league assets for more major pieces, and add via FA when that time comes. I agree with Theo for sure on his statement that winning 78 games instead of 73 just doesn't matter. Its a,metaphor obviously, but winning 80 games to me(with a bloated payroll and not a lot of flexibility) is far worse to me than whats going on. If we're not making more aggressive type moves next offswason, I'll be getting antsy myself, but I like the position it appears we're hwading to.

[KingCubsFan]

 

There's a value in retaining a player who'd been a very, very good player for the team for almost a decade. Both in terms of attendance revenue-people are probably going to be more willing to see an 80-ish win team than a 65-ish win team, and in terms of general entertainment.

 

High draft picks are nice and all, but at the end of the day, they are still rolls of the dice. To make an analogy, lets say you have a 6-sided dice. For the top, top, top guys, you can roll 5 out of the 6 numbers and you get a very good MLB player. Gray/Appel to Meadows is like saying instead of 4 of six numbers, it's 3 of six. That's a stupid way of saying that very few of them are sure things, and most prospects don't reach anything near their ceiling on draft day.

 

Also, the idea that they can build a team in 3-ish years by signing guys and flipping them along with sucking and drafting 4th instead of 14th is misguided. And it's annoying and uninteresting as hell to watch.

Entertainment value? I think Ramirez's popularity amongst fans (or lack thereof) has been thoroughly discussed on this board. He wasn't bringing people to the park or the television sets. And he wasn't adding 15 wins to the team. He's one of my favorite players of all-time, but I agreed with the front office that he didn't really fit in with the team's long-term plans.

 

As for the draft picks, it's certainly a crapshoot. And there's no guarantee Appel or Gray will end up being good. But in a usual draft, it becomes much more of a crapshoot outside of the top 4 or 5 picks. In this draft, it looks like it falls off a lot after the top 2. Plus, with the new CBA, you get the added benefit of a bigger draft pool.

 

Rebuilding can be painful at times, and I think it's even more painful when you think your team was close to contention before the rebuilding started. Personally, after 2011, I saw a team with a huge payroll, most players on the wrong side of their careers and a farm system in the bottom half of the league with almost no impact talent. To me, that looks like a team in need of a serious overhaul. Some people see it differently, and I can see why they'd be more frustrated with the current process. In terms of entertainment, which is entirely subjective, it is much more entertaining for me to watch guys like Rizzo, Castro, Castillo, Samardzija, etc. develop rather than watch a veteran-laden team struggle to reach .500.

[Sammy Sofa]

There you go giving Ricketts a pass. He is an extremely successful businessman and owning a business isn't static either. So exactly what has changed drastically from what he knew (or should have known) when he bought the Cubs?

 

What "pass?" What changed is their effort to try and get city/state funding for the renovations. What, they weren't supposed to even try? I'm sure they were hoping they'd be able to work something out and their rhetoric reflected as such. Why are you so pissed at them saying they wanted to try and get outside funding? My "pass" is using some common sense and not sulking like a petulant child just because they gave trying to get public funding a shot and it didn't work out.

 

And quit talking like you (or any of us) have any clue as to the detail of the Ricketts' money and what's tied up where and what's changed along the way. I'm annoyed with how things are going, so quit it with your tiresome board cop bull [expletive] where you think everyone is just slobbering all over the Ricketts and Theo and never thinking they do anything wrong.

[Hawk4Hall]

Under what owner/GM were the following contracts given out?

 

Soriano

Garza

Marmol

 

That's a lot of money right there for guys who might be traded this season.

 

I don't like how things are going, and I think this is a 100 loss team, but Ricketts and Theo aren't to blame at the moment. They may or may not end up righting the ship, but this organization slowly got worse under the Tribune and Hendry era.

[jersey cubs fan]

but this organization slowly got worse under the Tribune and Hendry era.

 

Actually it slowly got better under the Tribune ownership. The last decade of their tenure was probably the greatest era of the Cubs since WWI. It would have been awesome to have Theo as GM during the same era that Hendry was GM. Matching up an ownership that consistently provided management with the most resources in the division with a GM who could succeed when spending lots of money.