Re: Projecting the 2013 Cubs

[davell]

MR, I'm not being dense about anything. Again, unless you're sitting in on the instruction both Harper and Castro have had over their careers, you're not remotely qualified to say how much of an advantage Harper had in that department. Fair or not, Castros' baseball instruction didn't begin at age 16 either. I'm not familiar with his personal path to getting signed by the Cubs, but most Dominican kids spend plenty of time in baseball academies for years before being eligible to sign. And no, I'm not saying its perfect instruction. In fact, plenty of these kids are trained for showcases instead of for actual games. But we don't KNOW what Starlins' instruction was down there. Just as we don't KNOW Harpers' from an early age either. The facts we do have though are that Starlin is now entering his 7th season of professional coaching and he's 23 years old. Harper is 20 and is entering his 4th season of professional coaching. If you're entire argument is"well, Hendry sucked", thats fine. It just means you think Castro is in line for a much different developmental curve than most everyone else. Possible, I suppose.

[neely crenshaw]

I don't think it would happen straight up for Harper or Trout with Castro(on our end). I also don't think the nats/angels would do it without others involved from us.

The possibility of a Castro trade has nothing to do with performance or potential, but rather our needs for the future and the chance that we have a guy who may be as good just a season or two behind him. It is one of the few spots we seem to have some depth.

Trading Castro head up for one of those guys would fill 1 need but possibly leave us with another need instead(Baez looks good but still is unproven). Although the value would certainly be there, I think the trades that would make sense would be for several near ready prospects especially pitching, rather than getting one great player. We need volume right now, and our true assets are few. So although Trout and Harper should be future (and present) studs, we would still have so many players to fill in in order to be a contender that I am not sure how much closer we would be. Not too mention neither club is going to deal those guys.

[Sammy Sofa]

I don't think it would happen straight up for Harper or Trout with Castro(on our end). I also don't think the nats/angels would do it without others involved from us.

The possibility of a Castro trade has nothing to do with performance or potential, but rather our needs for the future and the chance that we have a guy who may be as good just a season or two behind him. It is one of the few spots we seem to have some depth.

Trading Castro head up for one of those guys would fill 1 need but possibly leave us with another need instead(Baez looks good but still is unproven). Although the value would certainly be there, I think the trades that would make sense would be for several near ready prospects especially pitching, rather than getting one great player. We need volume right now, and our true assets are few. So although Trout and Harper should be future (and present) studs, we would still have so many players to fill in in order to be a contender that I am not sure how much closer we would be. Not too mention neither club is going to deal those guys.

 

The Cubs have too many holes to say that they have the "depth" to trade an asset as valuable as Castro. If Baez pans out then you make room for both of them between 3B, SS or 2B. There's essentially no chance they trade Castro.

[SouthSideRyan]

I dont know you (and David) were being pretty [expletive] dense when you claimed hypocrisy on me for taking into account contract situation because I don't agree with being intentionally bad for 3 seasons.

[SouthSideRyan]

If Mark Prior didn't supernova do you think he'd have been throwing up 12 WAR seasons with regularity?

[davell]

If Mark Prior didn't supernova do you think he'd have been throwing up 12 WAR seasons with regularity?

Wait, is he a pitcher? Oh, he is. Then no.

[sneakypower]

I'll never get how "not getting premium, baseball-specific instruction during key athletic developmental years" is an argument in favor of guys like Castro, Szczur, or Samardzija.

...because Samardzija is actually the perfect example of this?

[Hairyducked Idiot]

I'll never get how "not getting premium, baseball-specific instruction during key athletic developmental years" is an argument in favor of guys like Castro, Szczur, or Samardzija.

...because Samardzija is actually the perfect example of this?

 

Yeah, I realized that after I typed it. I almost got away with that one.

 

Still don't think it's common enough to be a point in someone's favor.

[Guest]

I dont know you (and David) were being pretty [expletive] dense when you claimed hypocrisy on me for taking into account contract situation because I don't agree with being intentionally bad for 3 seasons.

 

I was just [expletive] with you, FFS.

 

I do think it's a little odd that you wouldn't just take the substantially better player (not like we're talking about Harper getting some outrageous amount of money per win compared to Castro) given things I recall you saying before. Maybe that's just my fault and I'm wrong. I know you're a big fan of Starlin though (not that I'm not), so I guess it's not that odd.

[davell]

I dont know you (and David) were being pretty [expletive] dense when you claimed hypocrisy on me for taking into account contract situation because I don't agree with being intentionally bad for 3 seasons.

Because evidently you think Starlin Castro is better at baseball than Bryce Harper? Position scarcity be damned here. Its not taking away anyones lifelong Cub fan card to admit that Harper is the better player.

Edited April 1, 2013 by davell

[Guest]

I'll never get how "not getting premium, baseball-specific instruction during key athletic developmental years" is an argument in favor of guys like Castro, Szczur, or Samardzija.

...because Samardzija is actually the perfect example of this?

 

Yeah, I realized that after I typed it. I almost got away with that one.

 

Still don't think it's common enough to be a point in someone's favor.

 

Yea, it can be an explanation for why someone might end up a late bloomer, but I don't think you can just bring it up as though it'll explain away why a more accomplished player is more accomplished.

 

In other words, I'm not going to nudge Szczur ahead of a better prospect just because he was a two-sport guy. If he ends up a late bloomer, great.

[UMFan83]

So of the Cubs 25 man roster plus 5 players on the DL (Baker, Barney, Vizcaino, Stewart and Garza):

 

12 are Cubs for the first time this year

9 have been Cubs since 2012

2 have been Cubs since 2011 (Clevenger and Garza)

4 have been Cubs since 2010 (Russell, Castillo, Barney and Castro)

1 has been a Cub since 2008 (Samardzija)

1 has been a Cub since 2007 (Soriano)

1 has been a Cub since 2006 (Marmol)

[Guest]

That doesn't mean Starlin is suddenly going to make up all this supposed ground and lost time with better instruction now... and it's questionable, at best, that that experience (in terms of how it varies from the norm) is a major factor in why Harper is so good (or why he is so good so young). He's just a ridiculous talent.

 

No one is saying that receiving quality coaching is the reason Harper is freakishly good. He's ridiculously talented. It's so obvious, it shouldn't need to be stated. But give the same years of coaching and polish to any number of other players and would they be at lot closer at 19? It's not just coaching, it's weight training and nutrition. All of those things that go into making a 19-year-old look like a guy that's been doing nothing but throwing, hitting, and lifting weights for half his life.

 

Wasn't there a report just yesterday about how older Castro looks? I saw him up close in ST and agree. I was 2 feet from him last year and he still looked like a high school kid. He doesn't now. Is that b/c he's finally eating and weight training properly or is that b/c he's just maturing? Combination?

 

FYI, most Latin American players start weight training the first full season they sign (often in the DSL at 17 or 18) but proper nutrition doesn't come until they at least get to the States.

 

It's just tough to compare these Latin kids who develop at a slower rate and don't have all the extra amenities compared to the average American prospect who has been focusing on not just baseball skills but all the other factors that help improve their chances of success.

[Guest]

That doesn't mean Starlin is suddenly going to make up all this supposed ground and lost time with better instruction now... and it's questionable, at best, that that experience (in terms of how it varies from the norm) is a major factor in why Harper is so good (or why he is so good so young). He's just a ridiculous talent.

 

No one is saying that receiving quality coaching is the reason Harper is freakishly good. He's ridiculously talented. It's so obvious, it shouldn't need to be stated. But give the same years of coaching and polish to any number of other players and would they be at lot closer at 19? It's not just coaching, it's weight training and nutrition. All of those things that go into making a 19-year-old look like a guy that's been doing nothing but throwing, hitting, and lifting weights for half his life.

 

Wasn't there a report just yesterday about how older Castro looks? I saw him up close in ST and agree. I was 2 feet from him last year and he still looked like a high school kid. He doesn't now. Is that b/c he's finally eating and weight training properly or is that b/c he's just maturing? Combination?

 

FYI, most Latin American players start weight training the first full season they sign (often in the DSL at 17 or 18) but proper nutrition doesn't come until they at least get to the States.

 

It's just tough to compare these Latin kids who develop at a slower rate and don't have all the extra amenities compared to the average American prospect who has been focusing on not just baseball skills but all the other factors that help improve their chances of success.

 

It seems like proper nutrition would be such an easy thing to provide. What the hell is the deal with that? Just get them some damn tuna and some chicken breasts.

[Guest]

That doesn't mean Starlin is suddenly going to make up all this supposed ground and lost time with better instruction now... and it's questionable, at best, that that experience (in terms of how it varies from the norm) is a major factor in why Harper is so good (or why he is so good so young). He's just a ridiculous talent.

 

No one is saying that receiving quality coaching is the reason Harper is freakishly good. He's ridiculously talented. It's so obvious, it shouldn't need to be stated. But give the same years of coaching and polish to any number of other players and would they be at lot closer at 19? It's not just coaching, it's weight training and nutrition. All of those things that go into making a 19-year-old look like a guy that's been doing nothing but throwing, hitting, and lifting weights for half his life.

 

Wasn't there a report just yesterday about how older Castro looks? I saw him up close in ST and agree. I was 2 feet from him last year and he still looked like a high school kid. He doesn't now. Is that b/c he's finally eating and weight training properly or is that b/c he's just maturing? Combination?

 

FYI, most Latin American players start weight training the first full season they sign (often in the DSL at 17 or 18) but proper nutrition doesn't come until they at least get to the States.

 

It's just tough to compare these Latin kids who develop at a slower rate and don't have all the extra amenities compared to the average American prospect who has been focusing on not just baseball skills but all the other factors that help improve their chances of success.

 

It seems like proper nutrition would be such an easy thing to provide. What the hell is the deal with that? Just get them some damn tuna and some chicken breasts.

 

I think that too has changed, especially with the academies down in the DR, but nutrition wasn't considered as important even 5-10 years ago.

[Ryne Ween]

we know this team blows on paper and we also know that a team that should suck sometimes wont for an extended period of time. We are also in a division that will likely not produce a wire-wire, runaway winner.

 

Since we have a few solid prospects and the ability to take on contracts, where do we think we need to be in June and July for the front office to make a go of it this year?

[Guest]

we know this team blows on paper and we also know that a team that should suck sometimes wont for an extended period of time. We are also in a division that will likely not produce a wire-wire, runaway winner.

 

Since we have a few solid prospects and the ability to take on contracts, where do we think we need to be in June and July for the front office to make a go of it this year?

 

Within 3-4 games of a wild card spot.

[Guest]

I think that too has changed, especially with the academies down in the DR, but nutrition wasn't considered as important even 5-10 years ago.

Or at all if you sign with the Pirates.

[Hairyducked Idiot]

we know this team blows on paper and we also know that a team that should suck sometimes wont for an extended period of time. We are also in a division that will likely not produce a wire-wire, runaway winner.

 

Since we have a few solid prospects and the ability to take on contracts, where do we think we need to be in June and July for the front office to make a go of it this year?

 

.500. If we go one game below .500 at any point in July, half the team will be gone the next day.

[jersey cubs fan]

we know this team blows on paper and we also know that a team that should suck sometimes wont for an extended period of time. We are also in a division that will likely not produce a wire-wire, runaway winner.

 

Since we have a few solid prospects and the ability to take on contracts, where do we think we need to be in June and July for the front office to make a go of it this year?

 

I don't think there's a cut-off, nor do I think "make a go of it" means anything more than not tear the team apart. If they remain in the picture, they will keep it all together, for the most part.

[Guest]

we know this team blows on paper and we also know that a team that should suck sometimes wont for an extended period of time. We are also in a division that will likely not produce a wire-wire, runaway winner.

 

Since we have a few solid prospects and the ability to take on contracts, where do we think we need to be in June and July for the front office to make a go of it this year?

 

I don't think there's a cut-off, nor do I think "make a go of it" means anything more than not tear the team apart. If they remain in the picture, they will keep it all together, for the most part.

 

I think they'd do a "trade a vitters (or worse) for a high salary some non-contender is trying to dump" type deal if there's anything like that available.

[Hairyducked Idiot]

Obviously too late for wire-to-wire, but I expect the Reds to win this division by 8+ games.

[SouthSideRyan]

we know this team blows on paper and we also know that a team that should suck sometimes wont for an extended period of time. We are also in a division that will likely not produce a wire-wire, runaway winner.

 

Since we have a few solid prospects and the ability to take on contracts, where do we think we need to be in June and July for the front office to make a go of it this year?

 

Within 3-4 games of a wild card spot.

 

If there are 3-4 teams in front of us, I don't think so. I think we need to be within a game for us to truly go for it.

[Hairyducked Idiot]

What does "truly go for it" mean?

 

There can be a continuum here. It doesn't have to be "trade everything that isn't nailed down and try to lose 100" or "Ship out three top prospects for a stud rental."

[jersey cubs fan]

What does "truly go for it" mean?

 

There can be a continuum here. It doesn't have to be "trade everything that isn't nailed down and try to lose 100" or "Ship out three top prospects for a stud rental."

 

I would think there are three options.

 

Fire sale.

Hold firm.

Actually go out and try to acquire a difference maker.

 

There are variations of those, like a Vitters for somebody's overpaid veteran which is essentially holding firm. The chances of actually going out and acquiring a difference maker would probably require the team being in first or second by late July.