2013 Mock Offseason Thread

[Clem Fandango]

I absolutely think that Barney could be had for someone like Brett Anderson. We may need to include an expendable mid-tier prospect with him, but it's definitely possible. Barney is under control for 4 more years, costs league minimum this coming season, and is one of the best defensive infielders in the game. Anderson pitched for a few weeks coming off TJS this season, is owed a guaranteed $7+ mil over the next two seasons (if he's bought out), or if you pick up his options, is owed $13.5 the next two or $25.5 the next three. Oakland would be ridding themselves of a guy they probably would only keep for one more year since he'd get expensive for them, for a guy they could keep for 4 at low cost? And at a position they need while dealing form a position of depth?

 

To the A's, Barney should be waaaaay more valuable than Peacock

[Little Slide Rooter]

I absolutely think that Barney could be had for someone like Brett Anderson. We may need to include an expendable mid-tier prospect with him, but it's definitely possible. Barney is under control for 4 more years, costs league minimum this coming season, and is one of the best defensive infielders in the game. Anderson pitched for a few weeks coming off TJS this season, is owed a guaranteed $7+ mil over the next two seasons (if he's bought out), or if you pick up his options, is owed $13.5 the next two or $25.5 the next three. Oakland would be ridding themselves of a guy they probably would only keep for one more year since he'd get expensive for them, for a guy they could keep for 4 at low cost? And at a position they need while dealing form a position of depth?

 

To the A's, Barney should be waaaaay more valuable than Peacock

 

If we could get Brett Anderson for Darwin Barney and, say Junior Lake, Jae Hoon-Ha, or Arismendy Alcanatar I'd be beyond thrilled. If we got Peaock straight up, I'd be content. Maybe he'd come with someone like Ian Krol and/or Michael Taylor to due to quesionability of Peacock and we could kick them something from the big league or big league junk pile to balance things out.

[Little Slide Rooter]

The A's acquired right-hander Sandy Rosario from the Red Sox for a player to be named later or cash considerations, the teams announced. In a related move, the A's designated outfielder Jermaine Mitchell for assignment.

 

Eh, if they're set on Brett Jackson starting at AAA, I'd take a flier out on him if he wouldn't cost anything. Maybe he could platoon with Sappelt in center, especially if the other option is Tony Campana.

[Tryptamine]

Since 3B seems to be a cesspool around MLB, would the Cubs be able to target Nolan Arenado? Not a lot of power, but he has strong contract skills. He's not MLB ready quite yet, but he could be by the ASB.

[Little Slide Rooter]

Since 3B seems to be a cesspool around MLB, would the Cubs be able to target Nolan Arenado? Not a lot of power, but he has strong contract skills. He's not MLB ready quite yet, but he could be by the ASB.

 

You kind of answered your own question. If 3B is such a cesspool, I can't imagine the Rockies, who aren't in much better shape than we are trading a 21 year old top prospect without a top prospect or more in return.

[Little Slide Rooter]

Prelude to moving Castro off SS? Probably not, but maybe?

 

I could see it. Like it or not, they could move Castro to 3rd, keep Barney for 2B, and Escobar at SS. Meanwhile, focus Baez solely on SS for the future.

 

and how bad could this team be:

 

1. DeJesus RF

2. Castro 3B

3. Rizzo 1B

4. Soriano LF (if nobody offers enough in return)

5. Escobar SS

6. Castillo C

7. Jackson/Sappelt CF

8. Barney 2B

Garza, Shark, Baker, Wood (maybe trade Wood and replace with Jurrjens or Pelfrey on a contract similar to Feldman/Maholm), Feldman. (Vizcaino/Cabrera/Bowden start the Iowa rotation)

BP Marmol, Fujikawa, Russell, Camp, some combo of Beliveau/Dolis/Putnam/Chapman/Gutierrez/Mateo/Hatley/whoever

Navarro, Jackson/Sappelt, Valbuena, Campana, Stewart

 

a 90 game winner it would not be, nor would it be a 100 game loser. What it would be is an inexpensive team with a chance to compete, and if June rolls around it it's not happening, then we start trading guys for similar value to what they would have now, depending on the market when the time comes. Of course, if someone wants to bowl us over with an offer for Garza, Soriano, or Marmol, that's different.

[davell]

We're not moving Castro for Yunel Escobar to play SS for a year when Baez is still multiple years away and its still a question if he truly sticks at SS.

[rawaction]

Ok, just to have fun with some of these rumors.

 

Sign Michael Bourn

Sign Jeff Keppinger

Sign Grilli

Trade Brett Jackson, Travis Wood, and Christian Villanueva to Cleveland for Shin Soo Choo

Trade Barney, Matt Szczur, and Starling Peralta to SD for Jedd Gyorko and Casey Kelly

Trade DeJesus and Josh Vitters to Atlanta for Sean Gilmartin and a low level arm.

Trade Marmol for a prospect

 

CF- Bourn

SS- Castro

1B- Rizzo

LF- Soriano

RF- Choo

C- Castillo

3B- Gyorko

2B- Valbuena /Keppinger

 

SP- Garza, Samardzija, Baker, Feldman, Kelly/Gilmartin/Vizcaino/etc

RP- Fujikawa, Grilli, Camp, Russell, Dolis, Cabrera, Fields- Rule 5

 

That's a pretty interesting team that could be pretty decent with a little health from the pitching staff.

[Guest]

now all we have to do is get every team to let us win every trade

[rawaction]

now all we have to do is get every team to let us win every trade

Do u think the Cubs won the Rizzo, Maholm, and Dempster trades? I don't think any of those are lopsided.

[Guest]

The SD trade is pretty bad, but on the other hand the Cubs are getting taken pretty good in the Choo trade. The Atlanta trade is probably appropriate value, even though I'm not sure what's in it for them.

[Little Slide Rooter]

Just thougt I'd bounce this around:

 

Pitching desperate KC has supposedly been considering shopping Will Myers for pitching. I'll assume that they'd like to keep him. What about Lorenzo Cain though? He's pretty much a right handed version of what we can hope for Brett Jackson to become, minus 5-10 HR.

 

Any chance we could trade Garza and one of our depth guys (Raley/Rusin/Jackson) to KC for Cain and Lamb or Montgomery, with a few more pieces fly back and forth as well.

[Guest]

Lorenzo Cain is a RH Sam Fuld. Jackson has a career 70 point edge in OPS on him despite being younger at similar levels.

[Little Slide Rooter]

Lorenzo Cain is a RH Sam Fuld. Jackson has a career 70 point edge in OPS on him despite being younger at similar levels.

 

Cain is a lot better than Fuld. He already has 2 2 WAR seasons under his belt in part time duty. If I were to use my lackluster analytical skills to give Cain a ceiling, I'd go with Angel Pagan, who has done pretty well for himself. To clear it up, yes, Brett Jackson's ceiling is higher than Cain, but Cain is a safer bet to be a productive big leaguer at this point.

[Guest]

Lorenzo Cain is a RH Sam Fuld. Jackson has a career 70 point edge in OPS on him despite being younger at similar levels.

 

Cain is a lot better than Fuld. He already has 2 2 WAR seasons under his belt in part time duty. If I were to use my lackluster analytical skills to give Cain a ceiling, I'd go with Angel Pagan, who has done pretty well for himself. To clear it up, yes, Brett Jackson's ceiling is higher than Cain, but Cain is a safer bet to be a productive big leaguer at this point.

 

FWIW, Fuld pretty much has one.

[Hairyducked Idiot]

So if the season started today:

 

Soriano/DeJesus/Schierholtz (Sappelt/Campana)

Valbuena/Castro/Barney/Rizzo (????/Clevenger*)

Castillo (Navarro)

 

Garza/Samardzija/Baker/Feldman/Wood

Marmol/Fujikawa/Camp/Russell/Dolis/Belivaeu/Rondon**

 

*(abty had an interesting tidbit that the Cubs are considering using Clevenger as a third catcher/backup corner guy hybrid).

**(Assuming they are serious about stretching out Bowden and Cabrera at Iowa)

 

That's ... not good. Maybe 74 win projection with a lot more downside than upside.

[Guest]

So if the season started today:

 

Soriano/DeJesus/Schierholtz (Sappelt/Campana)

Valbuena/Castro/Barney/Rizzo (????/Clevenger*)

Castillo (Navarro)

 

Garza/Samardzija/Baker/Feldman/Wood

Marmol/Fujikawa/Camp/Russell/Dolis/Belivaeu/Rondon**

 

*(abty had an interesting tidbit that the Cubs are considering using Clevenger as a third catcher/backup corner guy hybrid).

**(Assuming they are serious about stretching out Bowden and Cabrera at Iowa)

 

That's ... not good. Maybe 74 win projection with a lot more downside than upside.

 

What are you seeing Castro and Rizzo doing when you project 74?

 

Hell, Garza and Samardzija too?

[Hairyducked Idiot]

So if the season started today:

 

Soriano/DeJesus/Schierholtz (Sappelt/Campana)

Valbuena/Castro/Barney/Rizzo (????/Clevenger*)

Castillo (Navarro)

 

Garza/Samardzija/Baker/Feldman/Wood

Marmol/Fujikawa/Camp/Russell/Dolis/Belivaeu/Rondon**

 

*(abty had an interesting tidbit that the Cubs are considering using Clevenger as a third catcher/backup corner guy hybrid).

**(Assuming they are serious about stretching out Bowden and Cabrera at Iowa)

 

That's ... not good. Maybe 74 win projection with a lot more downside than upside.

 

What are you seeing Castro and Rizzo doing when you project 74?

 

Hell, Garza and Samardzija too?

 

The quattro come out to a little more than last year, I'd guess, plus doubling Rizzo's playing time. Samardzija overperformed, Garza undepeformed, the other two just performed.

[Guest]

I get 77 with that group. Signing a #3 starter and adding an above average 3B or OF probably makes this a .500ish team.

[Hairyducked Idiot]

I get 77 with that group. Signing a #3 starter and adding an above average 3B or OF probably makes this a .500ish team.

 

I'd close to agree, but I don't see either of those things happening. Especially the position players.

[Guest]

I get 77 with that group. Signing a #3 starter and adding an above average 3B or OF probably makes this a .500ish team.

 

I'd close to agree, but I don't see either of those things happening. Especially the position players.

 

I see a solid likelihood of the former happening. I have no idea what is going to happen at 3B and OF, if anything.

[Hairyducked Idiot]

Soriano(2.5)/DeJesus(1.0)/Schierholtz(1.0) (Sappelt/Campana) (1.0)

Valbuena(0.5)/Castro (4.0)/Barney(2.0)/Rizzo(4.0) (????/Clevenger)(0.0)

Castillo(1.0) (Navarro)(0.0)

 

Garza(2.0)/Samardzija(2.5)/Baker(1.5)/Feldman(1.0)/Wood(1.0)

Marmol/Fujikawa/Camp/Russell/Dolis/Belivaeu/Rondon (3.0)

 

Using the Baseball-Reference scale (52 wins as replacement level, which I like a little more than Fangraphs' 43-win scale, which I think inflates perceptions a bit), just WAGging the projections, rating the bench groups as a whole. RF is for the platoon. I rated the bullpen as a whole rather than individually.

 

That gets us to +28, which is almost .500. That seems way too good.

 

I can't decide if I'm underestimating the team (with the big caveat that the rotation stays healthy) or if it's just an artifact of projecting this way. Last year's team was +11.7 as a whole, which projects to 64 wins, which was one off our pythagorean record.

[Guest]

I think .500 from that group is optimistic, but because your baseline is screwy, because those projections are pretty pessimistic.

[Hairyducked Idiot]

I think .500 from that group is optimistic, but because your baseline is screwy, because those projections are pretty pessimistic.

 

I like the baseline because it pulls the projections back a bit. I think a 43-win replacement that Fangraphs uses inflates the perceived value of bad players too much. Baseball-Reference's individual WARs can be pretty screwed up because of their defensive metrics and the way they do pitching, but the scale is better.

 

Last year, we had 12 bWAR as a team, which projects to 64 wins using bWAR's baseline.

 

We had 21 fWAR as a team, which also projects to 64 wins using fWAR's baseline.

 

So it's like using different temperature scales: the raw numbers are different, but you're measuring the same thing. And I refuse to use the scale that places replacement level below Ian Stewart on principle.

[nilodnayr]

How about expanding this talk of Francoeur (blech) into something like Garza for Francoeur and Danny Duffy.