2013 Mock Offseason Thread

[illiniguy]

Yeah, I threw them in there in case they don't like Freese going forward. Him and Wright are only months apart in age. They'll be losing Carpenters contract soon and have enough young pitching to replace him cheap. They're the least likely of any of the teams I mentioned for sure.

Ok was just trying to follow your thinking. I'm sure the dodgers will look to make a play on him. After all money doesn't seem to be an issue to them.

[Guest]

Yeah, I threw them in there in case they don't like Freese going forward. Him and Wright are only months apart in age. They'll be losing Carpenters contract soon and have enough young pitching to replace him cheap. They're the least likely of any of the teams I mentioned for sure.

Ok was just trying to follow your thinking. I'm sure the dodgers will look to make a play on him. After all money doesn't seem to be an issue to them.

You think they really want Hanley playing SS everyday?

[davell]

Yeah, I threw them in there in case they don't like Freese going forward. Him and Wright are only months apart in age. They'll be losing Carpenters contract soon and have enough young pitching to replace him cheap. They're the least likely of any of the teams I mentioned for sure.

Ok was just trying to follow your thinking. I'm sure the dodgers will look to make a play on him. After all money doesn't seem to be an issue to them.

You think they really want Hanley playing SS everyday?

Yeah.

[illiniguy]

Yeah, I threw them in there in case they don't like Freese going forward. Him and Wright are only months apart in age. They'll be losing Carpenters contract soon and have enough young pitching to replace him cheap. They're the least likely of any of the teams I mentioned for sure.

Ok was just trying to follow your thinking. I'm sure the dodgers will look to make a play on him. After all money doesn't seem to be an issue to them.

You think they really want Hanley playing SS everyday?

Yes, I don't think Ned minds at all.

[Hairyducked Idiot]

Okay, so we throw a non-Baez collection of whatevers to the Mets for David Wright because they are dumb like that. We give him a 6/120 extension that tears up this year (for simplicity's sake, I won't try to backload or frontload any of these deals).

 

Is 5/80 enough to get Upton? I can't get a good read on him. If not, assume that $16 million can get us something this offseason, because there are a decent number of useful outfielders, especially CFers. Laugh at anyone who complains about giving up a 2nd round pick here.

 

I kind of want to get a veteran catcher to back up Castillo, but might as well save some money and stick with Clevenger, who should be a bit better than he showed this season.

 

Give Marcum 3/30 and 2/12 to Villanueva. I'd like to do more with starting pitching, but after Greinke and Peavy, there's just not much there, and we've already hinted we won't be a part of that.

 

I really wish there was more to be done with the bullpen. I'd like to see us convince Brandon League to leave L.A. even if we have to overpay (3/$18 enough?) and I'd love to be the team that gives Madson another 1/$10 deal. Something, anything to fix the @#%@# bullpen.

 

Non-tender Stewart and Volstad.

 

 

Soriano/Upton/DeJesus (Sappelt, Campana)

Wright/Castro/Barney/Rizzo (Valbuena, some random waiver wire scrub, LaHair)

Castillo (Clevenger)

 

 

Samardzija/Garza/Marcum/Wood/Villanueva

Madson/League/Marmol/Russell/(two from Zych/Cabrera/Beliveau/Dolis/whoever), random WW scrub.

 

Total MLB payroll: About $128 million

[SouthSideRyan]

I think you're underselling Marcum and Villanueva

[Guest]

He also seems to be underselling the non Greinke market in general.

[Hairyducked Idiot]

Really? I thought I was overpaying.

 

Holy crap mediocre pitching is going to be expensive.

[davell]

At this point, I kind of think the Brewers put the qualifier on Marcum. Villanueva? No clue what he'll get.

[Guest]

why no mention of mccarthy, sanchez, or jackson?

[XZero771679666304]

why no mention of mccarthy, sanchez, or jackson?

 

 

I can't speak for Kyle, but I'm a little bit leery of Jackson. He's intriguing, but Scott Boras is going to milk way too much money out of some team for him, probably well more than he's worth.

 

McCarthy and Sanchez are both more attractive targets, imo.

[Hairyducked Idiot]

why no mention of mccarthy, sanchez, or jackson?

 

I expect Sanchez to be too expensive, I'm not a huge McCarthy fan, and who? Brett? He'll be in AAA where he belongs, unless someone wants him in a trade.

 

Derp: Edwin. Also too expensive.

[Guest]

why no mention of mccarthy, sanchez, or jackson?

 

I expect Sanchez to be too expensive, I'm not a huge McCarthy fan, and who? Brett? He'll be in AAA where he belongs, unless someone wants him in a trade.

 

Derp: Edwin. Also too expensive.

 

too expensive for what?

[Hairyducked Idiot]

why no mention of mccarthy, sanchez, or jackson?

 

I expect Sanchez to be too expensive, I'm not a huge McCarthy fan, and who? Brett? He'll be in AAA where he belongs, unless someone wants him in a trade.

 

Derp: Edwin. Also too expensive.

 

too expensive for what?

 

For this front office's tastes. They've already hinted they'll be bargain-hunting on pitchers, so I'm not holding out much hope.

[Guest]

why no mention of mccarthy, sanchez, or jackson?

 

I expect Sanchez to be too expensive, I'm not a huge McCarthy fan, and who? Brett? He'll be in AAA where he belongs, unless someone wants him in a trade.

 

Derp: Edwin. Also too expensive.

 

too expensive for what?

 

For this front office's tastes. They've already hinted they'll be bargain-hunting on pitchers, so I'm not holding out much hope.

 

They've also acknowledged that free agency is inefficient and that to get the guys that they want who can be long term pieces, they'll have to pay more than they want to.

 

 

EDIT - and they've also made no secret that there is a dearth of pitching in the organization and that they are going to have to attack it aggressively in free agency this year.

Edited October 12, 2012 by David

[XZero771679666304]

why no mention of mccarthy, sanchez, or jackson?

 

I expect Sanchez to be too expensive, I'm not a huge McCarthy fan, and who? Brett? He'll be in AAA where he belongs, unless someone wants him in a trade.

 

Derp: Edwin. Also too expensive.

 

too expensive for what?

 

For this front office's tastes. They've already hinted they'll be bargain-hunting on pitchers, so I'm not holding out much hope.

 

My issue with Jackson isn't just his price, it's that I'm not convinced he's all that good. Couple that with Boras being his agent, and I think it's probably not worth the trouble. There are guys worth overpaying for, but I don't think Jackson is one of them.

[Guest]

why no mention of mccarthy, sanchez, or jackson?

 

I expect Sanchez to be too expensive, I'm not a huge McCarthy fan, and who? Brett? He'll be in AAA where he belongs, unless someone wants him in a trade.

 

Derp: Edwin. Also too expensive.

 

too expensive for what?

 

For this front office's tastes. They've already hinted they'll be bargain-hunting on pitchers, so I'm not holding out much hope.

 

My issue with Jackson isn't just his price, it's that I'm not convinced he's all that good. Couple that with Boras being his agent, and I think it's probably not worth the trouble. There are guys worth overpaying for, but I don't think Jackson is one of them.

 

What's not to like? 14.1 WAR over the last 4 years, solid FIP and xFIP the last 3 years and he's still on the right side of 30 (barely, admittedly).

 

How much do you guys expect him to get? He's been worth $61M over the last 4 (according to Fangraphs).

[XZero771679666304]

What's not to like? 14.1 WAR over the last 4 years, solid FIP and xFIP the last 3 years and he's still on the right side of 30 (barely, admittedly).

 

How much do you guys expect him to get? He's been worth $61M over the last 4 (according to Fangraphs).

 

Where are you getting that number? I see 10 WAR over the last 4 years (3.9 of which came in 2009). He walks a lot, but doesn't K a ton, gives up a fair number of hits.

 

 

He's a guy I wouldn't mind signing to a 4/40 - 4/48 type of deal, but I could see him getting 5-6 years at 15-18 per.

[Guest]

What's not to like? 14.1 WAR over the last 4 years, solid FIP and xFIP the last 3 years and he's still on the right side of 30 (barely, admittedly).

 

How much do you guys expect him to get? He's been worth $61M over the last 4 (according to Fangraphs).

 

Where are you getting that number? I see 10 WAR over the last 4 years (3.9 of which came in 2009). He walks a lot, but doesn't K a ton, gives up a fair number of hits.

 

 

He's a guy I wouldn't mind signing to a 4/40 - 4/48 type of deal, but I could see him getting 5-6 years at 15-18 per.

 

3.6 in 2009, 3.9 in 2010, 3.9 in 2011, 2.7 in 2012 = 14.1

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=1841&position=P

 

and FIPs of 3.86, 3.55, 3.85 and xFIPs of 3.71, 3.73, and 3.79 the last 3 years.

[davell]

The Red Sox, Yankees, Orioles, Blue Jays, White Sox, Royals, Angels, Mariners, Rangers, Mets, Nats, Phils, Pirates, Brewers, Dodgers, Padres, and Giants will ALL be looking for SP on some level this offseason, along with the Cubs. Most will likely be in more of a desperate "overpay" mode than we'll be. Considering the top 10 guys are Greinke, Peavy, Jackson, Sanchez, Marcum, Lohse, McCarthy, Kuroda, Haren, and Villanueva, it's going to be costly as hell. McCarthy looks like he's going to give the A's a one year deal. Kuroda is close to a lock to return to the Yanks, and I doubt the Angels let Greinke hit FA either. That would take it to 7. I see Villanueva, a Scott Baker type reclamation, a trade for a younger upside guy and a flier or two on depth non 40 man guarantees.

[XZero771679666304]

What's not to like? 14.1 WAR over the last 4 years, solid FIP and xFIP the last 3 years and he's still on the right side of 30 (barely, admittedly).

 

How much do you guys expect him to get? He's been worth $61M over the last 4 (according to Fangraphs).

 

Where are you getting that number? I see 10 WAR over the last 4 years (3.9 of which came in 2009). He walks a lot, but doesn't K a ton, gives up a fair number of hits.

 

 

He's a guy I wouldn't mind signing to a 4/40 - 4/48 type of deal, but I could see him getting 5-6 years at 15-18 per.

 

3.6 in 2009, 3.9 in 2010, 3.9 in 2011, 2.7 in 2012 = 14.1

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=1841&position=P

 

and FIPs of 3.86, 3.55, 3.85 and xFIPs of 3.71, 3.73, and 3.79 the last 3 years.

 

BR has his WAR as 3.9 in 2009, 1.7 in 2010, 2.8 in 2011 and 1.6 in 2012. Is the way Fangraphs and BR figure WAR that different?

[Guest]

 

BR has his WAR as 3.9 in 2009, 1.7 in 2010, 2.8 in 2011 and 1.6 in 2012. Is the way Fangraphs and BR figure WAR that different?

 

 

I've always heard that fWAR leans more predictive and BR is more results based. I'm not sure if that applies to pitching as well as hitting, though.

 

EDIT, sure looks that way, as his ERA in 2010 was quite a bit higher than the other years, while his xFIP was fairly consistent.

[davell]

I thought yhe predictive part of fWAR ONLY applied to pitching?

[Guest]

I thought yhe predictive part of fWAR ONLY applied to pitching?

 

That just might be right.

[Hairyducked Idiot]

Fangraphs applies peripherals (I think only FIP, not xFIP) for pitchers.

 

Baseball Reference just compares runs allowed by the pitcher to how many a hypothetical replacement pitcher would allow in that many innings.