2013 Mock Offseason Thread

[Hairyducked Idiot]

I actually think that team comes in well under the 75 figure actually. I wish we had a better handle on how exactly arbitration truly works. But I'll be surprised if Valbuena hits a mill even, based on his MLB stats so far. Shark will be interesting, but the bottom line is he's had one good year starting and a good one in relief. My honest guess is he'll be between 4-5 mill, giving him a solid raise from the sub-3 mill he's making currently. Because this IS his 1st arb year. Garza wilk be interesting too, because of missing half a season and the uncertainty of how his elbow rwacts after throwing again. He'll get a raise, but I doubt he'll make more than 11-12 mill, because of the circumstance he's in. But yeah, that team challenges Houston for the Rodon sweepstakes and an injury probably makes us the odds on favorites.

 

Plus, you can save another $5 million or so when you trade 40% of your rotation at the deadline (Garza and FA).

 

So we might be able to get that down under $65 million. We'd have a good chance at the No. 1 overall pick and the Wrigley renovations would be almost completely paid for.

 

I mean, it sucks and it's an awful plan, but I wouldn't put it past them.

[sneakypower]

[expletive] your face, we'll have literally zero chance at the #1 pick next year

[Hairyducked Idiot]

Yeah, the Astros would probably see what we were doing and start just forfeiting games. It'd be a hideous parallel to the epic AL East arms race that Epstein waged against the Yankees. Edited September 20, 2012 by Hairyducked Idiot

[davell]

Houston is going to be different than us, in the fact we'll go out and attempt to get servicable players that we can try and trade. They appear content to trot out complete has beens and never will bes.

[KingCubsFan]

I actually think that team comes in well under the 75 figure actually. I wish we had a better handle on how exactly arbitration truly works. But I'll be surprised if Valbuena hits a mill even, based on his MLB stats so far. Shark will be interesting, but the bottom line is he's had one good year starting and a good one in relief. My honest guess is he'll be between 4-5 mill, giving him a solid raise from the sub-3 mill he's making currently. Because this IS his 1st arb year. Garza wilk be interesting too, because of missing half a season and the uncertainty of how his elbow rwacts after throwing again. He'll get a raise, but I doubt he'll make more than 11-12 mill, because of the circumstance he's in. But yeah, that team challenges Houston for the Rodon sweepstakes and an injury probably makes us the odds on favorites.

 

Plus, you can save another $5 million or so when you trade 40% of your rotation at the deadline (Garza and FA).

 

So we might be able to get that down under $65 million. We'd have a good chance at the No. 1 overall pick and the Wrigley renovations would be almost completely paid for.

 

I mean, it sucks and it's an awful plan, but I wouldn't put it past them.

Why are you so obsessed with the payroll figure? It's not like Ricketts has shown an unwillingness to spend money.

[Hairyducked Idiot]

Why are you so obsessed with the payroll figure? It's not like Ricketts has shown an unwillingness to spend money.

 

Hasn't he? The amount of money spent on combined baseball operations has appeared to be steadily dropping since he took over.

[davell]

Kyle's right. But we can at least argue for now that it's been smarr instead of throwing money at a sinking ship. That changes if when we're contending we aren't going after guys that can conceivably put us over the hump.

[SouthSideRyan]

i'm going to pistol-whip the next person who mentions Rodon

 

Find a guy who will take a 1/$10 deal that you can Maholm this trade deadline (McCarthy? Villanueva? Heck, can we try to see if Dempster wants to do it all again? You could probably get Liriano really cheap, and FIP seems to sort of like him).

find three guys who'll do that, is more of what i'm wanting

 

if Baker/Marcum/Floyd want one-year deals to rebuild value, i'm all for it

if Villanueva, McCarthy, Liriano want the security of a 3- or 4-year deal, i'd be happy to oblige

 

(the assumption here is also that none of these guys will be commanding $10M AAV, but it's possible i'm low on a couple of these guys)

 

I like Liriano, but I can't understand why you're happy to give him a 4 year deal but are limiting Baker/Marcum/Floyd to 1.

[WrigleyField 22]

Why are you so obsessed with the payroll figure? It's not like Ricketts has shown an unwillingness to spend money.

 

Hasn't he? The amount of money spent on combined baseball operations has appeared to be steadily dropping since he took over.

So has revenue as far as I can tell.

 

I dont think there was ever an expectation or indication they would operate at a loss.

 

 

Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

Edited September 20, 2012 by WrigleyField 22

[Hairyducked Idiot]

Why are you so obsessed with the payroll figure? It's not like Ricketts has shown an unwillingness to spend money.

 

Hasn't he? The amount of money spent on combined baseball operations has appeared to be steadily dropping since he took over.

So has revenue as far as I can tell.

 

I dont think there was ever an expectation or indivation they would operate at a loss.

 

Has revenue gone down? They've lost about 250k in attendance since he took over, but they've added some advertising and MLB shared revenues have gone up significantly.

 

If it has, then much of it has been self-inflicted.

[WrigleyField 22]

Why are you so obsessed with the payroll figure? It's not like Ricketts has shown an unwillingness to spend money.

 

Hasn't he? The amount of money spent on combined baseball operations has appeared to be steadily dropping since he took over.

So has revenue as far as I can tell.

 

I dont think there was ever an expectation or indivation they would operate at a loss.

 

Has revenue gone down? They've lost about 250k in attendance since he took over, but they've added some advertising and MLB shared revenues have gone up significantly.

 

If it has, then much of it has been self-inflicted.

From when Ricketts took over I think we're down more than 250k. Plus they've put money in a lot of places where it wasn't before. So that comes from the MLB payroll.

 

 

Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[sneakypower]

i'm going to pistol-whip the next person who mentions Rodon

 

Find a guy who will take a 1/$10 deal that you can Maholm this trade deadline (McCarthy? Villanueva? Heck, can we try to see if Dempster wants to do it all again? You could probably get Liriano really cheap, and FIP seems to sort of like him).

find three guys who'll do that, is more of what i'm wanting

 

if Baker/Marcum/Floyd want one-year deals to rebuild value, i'm all for it

if Villanueva, McCarthy, Liriano want the security of a 3- or 4-year deal, i'd be happy to oblige

 

(the assumption here is also that none of these guys will be commanding $10M AAV, but it's possible i'm low on a couple of these guys)

 

I like Liriano, but I can't understand why you're happy to give him a 4 year deal but are limiting Baker/Marcum/Floyd to 1.

that's just leverage, i assume his agent would be more receptive to take the security, whereas the other 3 guys have proven themselves more recently and might not go beyond a year; i'd probably take any of the previously mentioned names on 3+ year deals, if they're up for it, regardless of the gamble...what else are we going to do, just hope we find a 12-year-old fan who can hit 102 on the gun?

[davell]

I'm pretty sure there are quotes from Ricketts that say they don't need to make money with the Cubs from a long time ago. I'm also pretty sure there's quotes from our 145 mill payroll season that they still made money during that year. How things go forward, I guess we;ll see. In a perfect world, the money being saved currently is allowed back into the team in other years to offset things, if we ned to go over budget. In all likelihood, it was a rookie mistake on Ricketts part to ever say something like that, because I don't begrudge anyone from at least wanting to make a profit, especially on something as large of an investment as a sports team is.

[Hairyducked Idiot]

From when Ricketts took over I think we're down more than 250k. Plus they've put money in a lot of places where it wasn't before. So that comes from the MLB payroll.

 

We drew 3,168,859 in 2009, with Ricketts taking over after the season.

With 7 home games to go, we are on pace for 2,912,904.

 

A difference of 255,594.

 

I'm aware they've spent money besides MLB payroll. That's why I said combined baseball operations has appeared to lose significant spending, not just MLB payroll.

[KingCubsFan]

Why are you so obsessed with the payroll figure? It's not like Ricketts has shown an unwillingness to spend money.

 

Hasn't he? The amount of money spent on combined baseball operations has appeared to be steadily dropping since he took over.

I guess nobody really knows, but making Theo one of the highest (if not the highest) paid executives in the game, significantly expanding baseball operations staff, renovating Wrigley facilities, securing a new spring training facility, paying $35+ million on international free agents doesn't scream "cheap" to me.

[davell]

While very true, I'll play devil's advocate on that anyway. It could be they really want to win, but want to do it in the cheapest way humanly possible and think that assembling a FO that combined will make well less than 10 mill per season, can keep you in the 100-110 range-payroll wise, instead of the 140-150 area they inherited and it still saves you money and hopefully works out for the best. That said, I honestly don't think Theo takes the gig unless he was assured they'd have a top 3 type payroll in the NL when it's needed.

[SouthSideRyan]

I'm pretty sure there are quotes from Ricketts that say they don't need to make money with the Cubs from a long time ago. I'm also pretty sure there's quotes from our 145 mill payroll season that they still made money during that year. How things go forward, I guess we;ll see. In a perfect world, the money being saved currently is allowed back into the team in other years to offset things, if we ned to go over budget. In all likelihood, it was a rookie mistake on Ricketts part to ever say something like that, because I don't begrudge anyone from at least wanting to make a profit, especially on something as large of an investment as a sports team is.

 

Ricketts has already made a sizable profit on the Cubs from the absolutely silly amounts being spent on sports franchises since his purchase.

[Hairyducked Idiot]

Why are you so obsessed with the payroll figure? It's not like Ricketts has shown an unwillingness to spend money.

 

Hasn't he? The amount of money spent on combined baseball operations has appeared to be steadily dropping since he took over.

I guess nobody really knows, but making Theo one of the highest (if not the highest) paid executives in the game, significantly expanding baseball operations staff, renovating Wrigley facilities, securing a new spring training facility, paying $35+ million on international free agents doesn't scream "cheap" to me.

 

Theo got about $4 million/year. All those baseball operations staff might add up to about the same, maybe a smidge more. They haven't begun the renovations yet, outside of some money-making opportunities. The new spring training facility is not being paid for by the Cubs, and the IFAs were being counted in the MLB payroll.

 

Add it all up, and we're still about $30 million short in the total baseball operations budget from its peak.

[davell]

The Dominican facility is what? 12-15 mill and currently being worked on. That counts as something towards that. But I truly think that if the CBA hadn't changed, you would have saw us spend 20 mill on the draft alone and probably 10 on IFA as well.

[Hairyducked Idiot]

The Dominican facility is what? 12-15 mill and currently being worked on. That counts as something towards that. But I truly think that if the CBA hadn't changed, you would have saw us spend 20 mill on the draft alone and probably 10 on IFA as well.

 

I'm a little annoyed they didn't see the change coming. There were lost of rumors, but they kept insisting it wasn't going to happen. Then it did, and they seemed a little blindsided.

[SouthSideRyan]

Kyle's right. But we can at least argue for now that it's been smarr instead of throwing money at a sinking ship. That changes if when we're contending we aren't going after guys that can conceivably put us over the hump.

 

But the perpetual rebuilding machine you have us on doesn't ever have us contending.

[jersey cubs fan]

I'm pretty sure there are quotes from Ricketts that say they don't need to make money with the Cubs from a long time ago. I'm also pretty sure there's quotes from our 145 mill payroll season that they still made money during that year. How things go forward, I guess we;ll see. In a perfect world, the money being saved currently is allowed back into the team in other years to offset things, if we ned to go over budget. In all likelihood, it was a rookie mistake on Ricketts part to ever say something like that, because I don't begrudge anyone from at least wanting to make a profit, especially on something as large of an investment as a sports team is.

 

Ricketts has already made a sizable profit on the Cubs from the absolutely silly amounts being spent on sports franchises since his purchase.

 

That is very much an unrealized profit.

[davell]

Kyle's right. But we can at least argue for now that it's been smarr instead of throwing money at a sinking ship. That changes if when we're contending we aren't going after guys that can conceivably put us over the hump.

 

But the perpetual rebuilding machine you have us on doesn't ever have us contending.

 

 

Sure thing man. I think this team can contend possibly in 2014 and definitely by 2015 with a few trades and signings over the course of the 2013 offseason, 2014 deadline, and 2014 offseason. At no point have I ever ventured further out than that and you know it.

[KingCubsFan]

Why are you so obsessed with the payroll figure? It's not like Ricketts has shown an unwillingness to spend money.

 

Hasn't he? The amount of money spent on combined baseball operations has appeared to be steadily dropping since he took over.

I guess nobody really knows, but making Theo one of the highest (if not the highest) paid executives in the game, significantly expanding baseball operations staff, renovating Wrigley facilities, securing a new spring training facility, paying $35+ million on international free agents doesn't scream "cheap" to me.

 

Theo got about $4 million/year. All those baseball operations staff might add up to about the same, maybe a smidge more. They haven't begun the renovations yet, outside of some money-making opportunities. The new spring training facility is not being paid for by the Cubs, and the IFAs were being counted in the MLB payroll.

 

Add it all up, and we're still about $30 million short in the total baseball operations budget from its peak.

Sorry, meant the Dominican facility, not the Spring Training facility. Regardless, $30 million in free agents isn't making this team competitive.

[Beer Kaese]

What is not being said is that the Cubs had one of the highest payrolls, worst records and worst farm systems in all of baseball. Hendry doubled down by trading a third of the farm assets for Garza and gave Pena 10 mil. There was no option but to cut payroll and build the farm for assets to trade and money to spend. I'm excited about the Cubs for the first time in 3 years.