Brett Jackson

[Gilby]

Do we think Brett can be a successful starter if he has a 30% K rate in the majors?

 

Over 600 PA's, that is 180 K's. It would take a .357 BABIP to hit .250.

 

To answer the question, I think it's possible. He clearly sees enough pitches to draw quite a few walks over a full season. Being a plus defender would certainly help. I don't think he'll ever hit .250, but that doesn't mean he can't start, either.

[pitchcs]

I'm thinking Chris Young (DBacks) is a good higher end comp for Brett Jackson.

[Cubswin11]

I'm thinking Chris Young (DBacks) is a good higher end comp for Brett Jackson.

I can see that, but does Jackson have 25-30HR power like Young? Doesn't he profile to be more of a 15-20HR guy at best?

[Gilby]

I'm thinking Chris Young (DBacks) is a good higher end comp for Brett Jackson.

 

I think that's a pretty good comparison. Jackson doesn't have the raw speed or power of Young, but I could see Jackson putting up some 2008 and 2011-2012 Chris Young seasons. Not super exciting and far from the best player on a really good team, but still worthwhile.

[treebird]

Do we think Brett can be a successful starter if he has a 30% K rate in the majors?

 

Over 600 PA's, that is 180 K's. It would take a .357 BABIP to hit .250.

 

To answer the question, I think it's possible. He clearly sees enough pitches to draw quite a few walks over a full season. Being a plus defender would certainly help. I don't think he'll ever hit .250, but that doesn't mean he can't start, either.

 

he'd only need a .357 babip to hit .250 if you assume he's going to hit zero home runs

[Gilby]

Do we think Brett can be a successful starter if he has a 30% K rate in the majors?

 

Over 600 PA's, that is 180 K's. It would take a .357 BABIP to hit .250.

 

To answer the question, I think it's possible. He clearly sees enough pitches to draw quite a few walks over a full season. Being a plus defender would certainly help. I don't think he'll ever hit .250, but that doesn't mean he can't start, either.

 

he'd only need a .357 babip to hit .250 if you assume he's going to hit zero home runs

 

I'm projecting 15 inside the parkers...

 

Good point though.

[Guest]

Some fun with stupidly small sample sizes. Jackson has 54 PA which can be segmented in half perfectly.

 

First 27 PA: .125/.222/.125, 3 BB, 14 K

Last 27 PA: .240/.296/.520, 2 2B, 1 3B, 1 HR, 2 BB, 11 K

[Sammy Sofa]

I'LL TAKE IT. Dear God, I need some kind of hope.

[cubbyvirus00]

All my hope is that extensive offseason work with a hitting coach can help him.

[C.C.]

I hope too! All we have now is Rizzo and Castro. Next year doesn't look any better then this year.

[Hairyducked Idiot]

Do we think Brett can be a successful starter if he has a 30% K rate in the majors?

 

At 30%? I absolutely think he can be a starter. But I don't think he can maintain 30%. Or 35%.

[WrigleyField 22]

At 30% he can hold down CF for his cheap years until something better is available.

 

 

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[Guest]

suddenly a .706 ops

[Hairyducked Idiot]

suddenly a .706 ops

 

Sustainable, too!

[Sammy Sofa]

Kyle's waffling-sense is probably going insane the last few days.

[Hairyducked Idiot]

Kyle's waffling-sense is probably going insane the last few days.

 

Brett Jackson is a wash-out who can't hit. It'll take a lot to change my mind on that one.

[Sammy Sofa]

No it won't.

[davell]

All I know is he had a damn good series and we should be happy about it. I am starting to think Drew Stubbs may be an accurate comp, minus a little power.

[Hairyducked Idiot]

All I know is he had a damn good series and we should be happy about it. I am starting to think Drew Stubbs may be an accurate comp, minus a little power.

 

Plus a lot of Ks and lower BA/OBP.

[davell]

All I know is he had a damn good series and we should be happy about it. I am starting to think Drew Stubbs may be an accurate comp, minus a little power.

 

Plus a lot of Ks and lower BA/OBP.

Stubbs career line is .245/.317/.398. 559k's in 1911 PA. when all is said and done, I think I can envision Brett's line in that general area. And honestly, maybe a bit more SLG. Thought Stubbs hit for more power than that. That's a tad under a 30% K rate, I'm not sure we'll be seeing Brett get down(ha) to quite that low.

[sneakypower]

jackson's zips: .247/.330/.424 (28.9% K)

stubbs' zips: .239/.310/.398 (29.4% K)

 

hilariously, right now he's virtually league average offensively (for wOBA) with 43% K's...and a 34% LD rate

 

nothing about him makes any sense; this guy is my favorite player in baseball right now

[sneakypower]

one more thing: Jackson's plate discipline has been other-worldly to this point

 

amongst qualified hitters, only Albert Callaspo and Carlos Santana have offered at fewer pitches out of the zone (full list) than his 20.6% figure, but that isn't really passivity at all, since he's swung at pitches within the zone at an extremely high rate (71.1%)

 

no other player who has swung at less than 25% of pitches outside the strike zone has also swung at more than 70% of pitches in the zone; basically, he's doing everything right, but making contact when he swings (74.4% zone-contact, which would place worst in baseball)...an obvious caveat is SSS, but he's not being overmatched in terms of pitch recognition right now

 

so, if his mechanics are screwed up and somewhat correctable, he can surely be a MLB-caliber player offensively

 

to me, this is the new front office's first big litmus test in player development and i can't wait to see how it turns out

[Tracer Bullet]

Would he have been getting Jaramillo's message? Bc it sounds like he's definitely being aggressive in the zone.

[davell]

I think Brett is going to be given much more attention than Vitters by the FO. He's got way too many positives to not figure out the one gigantic negative. And the way sneakypower just worded that, makes me feel that much better about us getting him to succeed longterm.

[Hairyducked Idiot]

He struck out 34% of the time in AAA and 43% of the time in the majors so far. This is not some minor flaw to be papered over.

 

The BA and OBP have settled in about where they probably will long-term. All he has to do is keep hitting HRs in 25% of his FBs and we're golden for a league-average OPS.