Minor League Discussion & Boxes 6-30-12

[toonsterwu]

What does everyone think of Alberto Cabrera? He has a 8/0 K/BB so far in Iowa in 4 innings since being promoted. SSS, but a dominant strike thrower out of the bullpen developed by the Cubs has been unheard of in recent years. Is he a better prospect than Dolis at this point? Closer potential?

 

Yes. I've long thought Alberto Cabrera had closer potential. The fastball/slider combination isn't as good as Marmol's when Marmol was at it's peak ... but if he can command it better than Marmol, then he could have better staying power. I've also long thought that there was too much excuse-making for Dolis' inability to consistently whiff bats at a high rate - I just don't know if his slider will ever be consistent enough (but I haven't followed all that closely this year).

 

I think Cabrera's the top pen arm (currently in said role ... although tbh, I think I'd take Cabrera over McNutt in the pen) in the system, with Hatley/Zych a good notch behind him.

[toonsterwu]

Dillon Maples (@dsmaples)

6/29/12 8:01 PM

My back....is....hurting....

 

(@Vinestal)

6/29/12 8:05 PM

@dsmaples is that why you haven't started a game this year? that sucks, hope it gets better soon. I'm looking forward to seeing u in action.

 

Dillon Maples (@dsmaples)

6/30/12 2:18 PM

@Vinestal yeah and I can't wait to get out there

 

So I guess his back has been his issue. I've not really seen this reported elsewhere so I figured it was worth posting.

 

Didn't he have back problems this spring? Or am I thinking of someone else? If it was Dillon, then the fact that it's lingered this long is ... troubling.

[toonsterwu]

My thinking is from top to bottom in the entire organization, if you asked Theo to tell us what are the 5 best developments of the year, Vitters is one of the 5.

 

1. Vitters' development

2. Rizzo still looks really good

3. Soler signing

4. Castro not going to jail

5. Nobody killed by crumbling Wrigley infrastructure

6. Szczur's plate discipline

7. Alcantara's development

 

Yeah, Szczur would be close to the top of the list for me right now, in terms of positive developments this year. Not only has his discipline dramatically improved, but he's also hitting for a bit more power. Add in that the defensive reports are even better than last year's ... and the only thing left is to see him in AA, and he really should be there soon.

 

I'd go (relative to positive developments, non-draft and signings related)

 

1. Szczur's significantly improved discipline

2. Vitter's improvement

3. Lake's improvement (power was down last month, though)

4. Javier Baez's play. Still wonder if he ends up at 3rd. Yes, he was a stud prospect, but the MWL isn't exactly a cakewalk for hitters.

5. Alcanatara's development

 

Close 6th, but SSS - Candelario's play in shortseason so far

 

On the flip side, well ... name a pitcher and you can probably go with that. But since I'm in a list-making mood, negative things, non-draft and signings related

 

1. Brett Jackson's awful K's - I still like Brett, but it's been bad. Furthermore, he's had two awful stretches where he K'd close to 50% (which also speaks to the fact that he's been passable, with K's, during part of the season ... which actually makes it more frustrating).

2. McNutt - uh ... we getting near pen time?

3. Rhee - He actually didn't get off to a bad start (K rate was decent in April). The GB rate has increased, but the diving K rate has killed him.

4. Torreyes and Cates struggles - lumping them together because they were both intriguing raw assets from trades.

5. Could go a number of ways on the last one. On an individual level, Ben Wells TJ is disappointing, but on a general level, the fact that we haven't really had an intriguing young, upside arm step forward is the most disappointing thing. The Latin American "class" of Peralta/Liria/Cruz/Paulino haven't really panned out, and Rosario, much as he is intriguing, well, put it this way, I still have my doubts he's a starter.

[toonsterwu]

Lake and Alcantara both had 2 errors tonight? There is some weird synchronicity going on in this system.

 

Alcantara has the raw tools to stick at short. Whether he develops the consistency, only time will tell. The errors are insane this year, but I'd be curious on a breakdown of the errors of how they happened (not that I expect anyone to dig through them, as I certainly won't). IIRC, the field at Jackie Robinson Ballpark isn't exactly the best.

[toonsterwu]

Candelario is 3 for 5 with a double and a K

Dunston is 1 for 3 with a double and a walk

Martin and Amaya are 1 for 5 with a K

Bruno is 2 for 4 with a double and triple

 

I may look like a total idiot a year or two from now, but I really believe in

 

a) Bruno's bat

b) His ability to play short (well ... I probably won't look like an idiot on this if he isn't at short, due to the options in the system)

 

There's definitely some reasons for concerns on Bruno, but there's some pop in the bat, and he has a loose, fluid swing with good bat speed. There's some obvious comps that can be made for what I think he could be, but those comps are too high ceiling for me to want to make them.

[davell]

Toonster, Torreyes on the disappointing list? Really? His walk rate is up, his K rate is too, but it's miniscule and phenomenal for a 19 year old playing High A ball, showing be's been unlucky as a player can get. He's showing pop, as his extra base hits are actually up from last year as well. No clue as to why he'd make your disappointing list, while your main man, Marco, did not, and should have. Not even close. Playing a level BEHIND Torreyes, and all of 4 days younger(his age for level is still excellent, but I'm comparing him to Torreyes right now, not anyone else) his K rate went a disturbing level, his walks went down, and his XBH did as well. Yes, he had a fairly decent last 10 games or so, but the bottom line is he got demoted. He wouldn't have if he had played better, Baez or no Baez. If one of these two guys has lost anything this season, it's Hernandez, and it's not even close.

[Little Slide Rooter]

My intrigue continues to build toward Michael Burgess. While not as young as Vitters, he still has that same situation in which it seems like he's been around for ages, though he's still only 23.

 

And wasnt Dustin Geiger a fairly touted bonus baby when he was drafted in 2010? He seems to be putting together a good season.

[Guest]

Toonster, Torreyes on the disappointing list? Really? His walk rate is up, his K rate is too, but it's miniscule and phenomenal for a 19 year old playing High A ball, showing be's been unlucky as a player can get. He's showing pop, as his extra base hits are actually up from last year as well. No clue as to why he'd make your disappointing list, while your main man, Marco, did not, and should have. Not even close. Playing a level BEHIND Torreyes, and all of 4 days younger(his age for level is still excellent, but I'm comparing him to Torreyes right now, not anyone else) his K rate went a disturbing level, his walks went down, and his XBH did as well. Yes, he had a fairly decent last 10 games or so, but the bottom line is he got demoted. He wouldn't have if he had played better, Baez or no Baez. If one of these two guys has lost anything this season, it's Hernandez, and it's not even close.

 

Seems like an odd stance. And this while I agree that once you look at the BABIP, Torreyes hasn't been that disappointing.

[toonsterwu]

Toonster, Torreyes on the disappointing list? Really? His walk rate is up, his K rate is too, but it's miniscule and phenomenal for a 19 year old playing High A ball, showing be's been unlucky as a player can get. He's showing pop, as his extra base hits are actually up from last year as well. No clue as to why he'd make your disappointing list, while your main man, Marco, did not, and should have. Not even close. Playing a level BEHIND Torreyes, and all of 4 days younger(his age for level is still excellent, but I'm comparing him to Torreyes right now, not anyone else) his K rate went a disturbing level, his walks went down, and his XBH did as well. Yes, he had a fairly decent last 10 games or so, but the bottom line is he got demoted. He wouldn't have if he had played better, Baez or no Baez. If one of these two guys has lost anything this season, it's Hernandez, and it's not even close.

 

Eh ... my point was that the two raw trade targets have struggled in the first half. I don't see an issue with that statement. The amount of hype that was generated for these two guys, here and elsewhere, probably made it so that expectations were going to be impossible to be met (Torreyes moreso than Cates, but there were plenty of people pushing Cates up, partly I think due to Keith Law's statements (was it Law? I forget).

 

While I'm very high on Marco Hernandez, let's be honest - not many legitimate sources out there were that high on him, and heck, there were some folks that thought he would struggle if he made it to Peoria. It's easy to forget that, while it wasn't a shocker for some of us, the fact that Hernandez made Peoria was quite surprising to a lot of folks. Am I personally disappointed? Yes. But realistically, he wasn't expected there. Relative to what people expected, I don't see any reason to put Marco in a top 5 disappointing list. I am down on Marco compared to last year? Yes. But that's partly because I had him on such a higher pedestal than most people. I don't think BA had Marco in their top 12, but I don't recall right now.

 

If you are simply saying Torreyes shouldn't be in a top 5 disappointing list, fine. I can buy that. But ... take a look back at some of the expectations/commentary made about Torreyes after we landed him, both from Cubs fans, Reds fans, general prospect followers, and so forth. Heck, I even thought he'd rake in Daytona. Relative to expectations, how can we not call his first half a disappointment? Is it top 5? That's a debatable notion, but relative to expectations, I have no qualms in saying Torreyes first half was disappointing. That's me.

 

Btw, Marco's last 10 games in Peoria ... he struggled a bit, or at least, was inconsistent (couple 2 hit games in there). He had a nice run from late April to mid-late May).

[davell]

Raisin, could you please explain? I'm just saying that Torreyes wouldn't come cloae to being on a disappointing list and used his numbers to show why. OTOH, Marco would definitely show up on my bottom 5, per se, because of his overall numbers. Both are very young, both have plenty of time to work on things, but Torreyes has had a far superior 2012 season. Am I wrong to say that?

[Hairyducked Idiot]

Torreyes' peripherals have been everything I hoped for him and then some. He just has a sub .250 BABIP last I checked.

[toonsterwu]

My intrigue continues to build toward Michael Burgess. While not as young as Vitters, he still has that same situation in which it seems like he's been around for ages, though he's still only 23.

 

And wasnt Dustin Geiger a fairly touted bonus baby when he was drafted in 2010? He seems to be putting together a good season.

 

On Geiger -

 

I wouldn't exactly say fairly touted. He was an intriguing bonus baby, but there were some questions on if he could stick at 3rd (and there still are). I'm intrigued with his start, but need a lot more AB's before I know if I'm buying it or not.

 

Burgess -

 

I haven't been big on Burgess since I saw him, er, 3 years ago? He's always had good raw power, so if he's fixed his swing a bit and has found a better balance, then I'd be intrigued, but haven't heard how things are going on that front.

[toonsterwu]

Raisin, could you please explain? I'm just saying that Torreyes wouldn't come cloae to being on a disappointing list and used his numbers to show why. OTOH, Marco would definitely show up on my bottom 5, per se, because of his overall numbers. Both are very young, both have plenty of time to work on things, but Torreyes has had a far superior 2012 season. Am I wrong to say that?

 

Hell, davell, you don't need Raisin to come in on this. I'll agree that Torreyes has had a better 2012 than Hernandez. No doubt about it. What I said above, though, was that relative to expectations, I don't think Hernandez should be on a most disappointing list (again ... outside of me, I don't recall many people ... here ... that put him top 5 in the Cubs system, if any, and most prospect listings had him lower (although KG had him 8th? 9th?) and that Torreyes first half would fall on the disappointing side of the spectrum for me.

[davell]

Toonster, I think it's very likely that Torreyes numbers move up to very respectable by the end of the year. If he were hitting .350 in High A, as he did in A, he'd probably be a definitive top 100 guy right now. BA wasn't as high on either Torreyes or Marco, if I remember. I'm on vacation, don't have my book with me. I guess from a true, stats-oriented approach Torreyes' numbers look disappointing to the naked eye. But I don't see that he(other than by me anyway) was any more hyped than Marco. In a vacuum, with us looking at things closer than the national guys, Marco comes off as the much bigger disappointment to me.

[toonsterwu]

Toonster, Torreyes on the disappointing list? Really? His walk rate is up, his K rate is too, but it's miniscule and phenomenal for a 19 year old playing High A ball, showing be's been unlucky as a player can get. He's showing pop, as his extra base hits are actually up from last year as well. No clue as to why he'd make your disappointing list, while your main man, Marco, did not, and should have. Not even close. Playing a level BEHIND Torreyes, and all of 4 days younger(his age for level is still excellent, but I'm comparing him to Torreyes right now, not anyone else) his K rate went a disturbing level, his walks went down, and his XBH did as well. Yes, he had a fairly decent last 10 games or so, but the bottom line is he got demoted. He wouldn't have if he had played better, Baez or no Baez. If one of these two guys has lost anything this season, it's Hernandez, and it's not even close.

 

Seems like an odd stance. And this while I agree that once you look at the BABIP, Torreyes hasn't been that disappointing.

 

Again, my point was that relative to expectations, I think Torreyes has been on the disappointing side.

 

He's had an excellent month. If he keeps this up, sure, he wouldn't be on the disappointing side anymore.

 

Before we forget, though, leaving aside the numbers, there were numerous reports about weak contact, about him misreading pitches, and going after pitches out of zone to make contact (and I realize that you could spin this into a positive about how solid his tool and plate coverage is). This wasn't a classic low BABIP case of a guy who was continually pounding GB's into the dirt the first two months and just having bad luck (and I'm pretty sure his GB% the first two months weren't that high ... well, went and looked it up, he's been pretty steady around 50% on GB's). Perhaps he needed an adjustment time. Perhaps he ... didn't get used to a new organization. Perhaps he ... didn't feel comfortable in Daytona. A whole host of possibilities exist.

 

But ... relative to expectations ... I think his first half was a disappointment. I acknowledged that whether or not it's a top 5 disappointment is fair question. I'm not sure why my opinion on this is generating these types of responses. Are people really going to say that Torreyes first half was a plus?

Edited July 1, 2012 by toonsterwu

[davell]

OK, I see where you're coming from. I guess I was thinking more from a NSBB perspective, where I think Marco probably was considered the better prospect. But if you look at it broader, nationally Torreyes may have gotten a bit more pub and I guess I can see the disappointment of bubble gum numbers anyway. And Marco is technically playing where he's supposed to be anyway. I'm just taking up for my main man, Ronald........ :)

[toonsterwu]

Toonster, I think it's very likely that Torreyes numbers move up to very respectable by the end of the year. If he were hitting .350 in High A, as he did in A, he'd probably be a definitive top 100 guy right now. BA wasn't as high on either Torreyes or Marco, if I remember. I'm on vacation, don't have my book with me. I guess from a true, stats-oriented approach Torreyes' numbers look disappointing to the naked eye. But I don't see that he(other than by me anyway) was any more hyped than Marco. In a vacuum, with us looking at things closer than the national guys, Marco comes off as the much bigger disappointment to me.

 

This post is sort of moot as you read my other post as I responded to this.

 

On Marco - I've acknowledged that, personally, I've been very disappointed. If we take a step back, though, davell, what was the expectation game for Marco, from most, this year? I just don't know if it's as high as I expected, and as you might've expected and that's what I made the judgment on.

 

Even some of the critics of Torreyes thought he would hit up the ladder, at least before AA (at least, that's what I recall).

 

Actually, I'll be honest, I noted this in the response below, but my disappointment with Torreyes has as much to do with stats as it has to do with the fact that the reports suggest that he was making weak contact, misreading pitches, and reading for pitches, amongst other things. As I note below, could be an adjustment period.

 

But again, tying my two posts together ... is anyone really going to argue that Torreyes first half has been a plus? I've acknowledged whether or not it's a top 5 disappointing is debatable, but I just ... have hard time arguing that, on the plus/negative ledger, that Torreyes' first half is a plus. I guess, if you want to call it neutral, okay, but ... neutral would seem to suggest that this, what he has done in the first half, was the expectations set for him.

[Hairyducked Idiot]

Sure, I'll argue that. BB rate is up, K rate is mostly unchanged, IsoP is up. The only thing missing is BABIP, and that's been catching up as fast as it can.

[toonsterwu]

OK, I see where you're coming from. I guess I was thinking more from a NSBB perspective, where I think Marco probably was considered the better prospect. But if you look at it broader, nationally Torreyes may have gotten a bit more pub and I guess I can see the disappointment of bubble gum numbers anyway. And Marco is technically playing where he's supposed to be anyway. I'm just taking up for my main man, Ronald........ :)

 

It would've been interesting to see people's lists. I get the feeling that Hernandez wasn't a top 10 on every list. My hunch is that Ronald would've been in the same boat - make some back end top 10 lists (I believe KG said 7th? or something like that after the trade).

 

Edit: I gotta say, that was a long discussion based of my lumping these two together because they were intriguing raw assets from trades comment. I had really only intended to put Cates in there at first, but then I threw Torreyes in there at the last second.

Edited July 1, 2012 by toonsterwu

[toonsterwu]

Sure, I'll argue that. BB rate is up, K rate is mostly unchanged, IsoP is up. The only thing missing is BABIP, and that's been catching up as fast as it can.

 

So ... you are going to argue that his first half is a plus, that he's exceeded expectations? His entire first half (from April to, well, heck, let's just make it from April to now) was a plus? Okay. Fair enough. I disagree, for the reasons I've noted, but ... fair enough.

[Hairyducked Idiot]

Sure, I'll argue that. BB rate is up, K rate is mostly unchanged, IsoP is up. The only thing missing is BABIP, and that's been catching up as fast as it can.

 

So ... you are going to argue that his first half is a plus, that he's exceeded expectations? His entire first half (from April to, well, heck, let's just make it from April to now) was a plus? Okay. Fair enough. I disagree, for the reasons I've noted, but ... fair enough.

 

"Plus" in the sense that anytime a prospect advances a level without losing peripherals, that's a plus.

[Magnetic Curses]

Is Torreyes a potential Polanco-type? Thats what he seems like to me.

[toonsterwu]

Is Torreyes a potential Polanco-type? Thats what he seems like to me.

 

That's actually ... an interesting comp. My memory of Polanco as a 2nd baseman are fuzzy these days. I want to say that I think, if Torreyes bat plays, that he should be a better defensive option at 2nd than Polanco was (and the reports on Torreyes at short haven't been that bad ... but Alcantara deserves the PT there so no need for a Torreyes extended trial there).

 

damn ... Polanco's UZR numbers at 2nd are fairly good. Did not realize that. I guess it's actually a pretty good positive case comp . I think someone threw it out this winter as well.

[Guest]

I post one thing, run to the store and this discussion explodes. Looks like there's nothing more I can add here, though.

[davell]

I'll end it by saying this: The minor league forum here absolutely kicks ass. It's gotten quite a few folks from here to follow things much closer and in years where we're awful, it's following this, that makes it much easier to take. I've learned a ton from Raisin, Toonster, and others as well. I bet Theo wishes the entire Cub fan population knew what we do and understand that we are very clearly making lots of progress.