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2012 Draft Day Thread + Cubs Picks Discussion

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craig First Round Pick

craig

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Almora is relatively young. His birthday was in April. So if he's good enough to make full-season out of camp next year, he could get some AB's in Peoria when he's still only 18. I'd wondered if he wasn't one of these almost-19-year-old guys.
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weis21 Myrtle Beach Pelicans

weis21

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Almora has good reports on his plate discipline. I think by that they may mean that he can recognize breaking balls and doesn't look bad or swing at a lot of junk.

 

I don't think it means he takes many walks, though. I believe he doesn't. As a senior, he took only 13 walks in like 78 AB. Great for a pro, but not great in HS when you're the Barry Bonds of your conference. I think Baez's walk rate was at least double that last year as a senior. And I don't think Almora played in a super big-school power conference did he?

 

So I'm not expecting Almora to be an IsoD monster or anything like that.

I think BA had him with great plate discipline - maybe ranked 3rd? I don't think that should be a concern at this time. EVERY report raves about his baseball IQ (and overall IQ) and with his polish, I think the walks will come in time. It just doesn't signal a red flag to me right now.

Guest

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Guests
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Can anyone find his stats with Team USA? That should give a more accurate feel for his ability to draw walks against advanced competition.
craig First Round Pick

craig

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I expect Blackburn should be pretty signable. There were indications that he was, and he's not a guy who's been ranked as a first-rounder for the last 12 months and will be disappointed to be "only" picked in the 50's and getting "only" a million. Plus they research all this stuff. I'd like for him to be so superior to the others that he's worth big superslot. But my guess is that he wasn't that superior a prospect to other guys, and that if he projected as a big signability problem, they'd have just taken somebody else who would sign at or near slot.

 

I expect that Johnson will be around slot. He's pretty talented, and was discussed as having mid-1st round talent. When he's on, he's very good. And players typically don't expect to get injured. He's also young; just turned 21 last month. So if he doesn't get a legit slot offer, he may not sign sub-slot. May figure that he knows he's fine health-wise, and that if he pitches to his ability he can be one of the best in the country and earn a top-20 selection next year, and he still won't be that old or anything. Of course he'll be signable, but I don't anticipate any major sub-slot bargain there. And again, perhaps if there had been indication that he was willing to go seriously sub-slot, probably he'd have gone even sooner.

 

Unfortunately I expect that Almora will be expensive. He's a Boras guy, and Boras always gets a bunch. It's the first Theo draft, and I assume there is pressure to not come out empty with the top pick. Cubs have said Almora was top on their board, so I think Boras will be able to leverage them into some overslot. I'm hoping that they'd already pre-arranged all this, and talked it out in advance, and gotten some assurances.

 

Per dollar, I think in past traditionally slot picks give the best value. Teams have had to pay superslot to get extra talent later. But this year with no extra money to spend, I suspect that you'll get the best value in the draft if you basically work within the pool of guys who like baseball enough that they are fine to sign at or around slot. I think that's probably what's happened thus far.

 

I expect a LOT of college pitchers taken today by the Cubs. By the 4th round, I doubt there are a lot of smart high-ceiling HS pitchers who will want to sign for slot.

davell Chicago Cubs

davell

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Yeah, Callis has said he expects HS kids to basically go through the 2nd round, then really fall off bigtime after that, due to signability. Yeah, we'll get our share of Austin Reed, Colin Richardson, Ryan Hartman types at some point, but there's very few HS guys that sign for between 200-400K, it seems. Maybe we can take a HSer in the 3rd, but that's only because our 3rd round slot is still close to 500K. My guess is we'll take one more inside the top 10 rounds.
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Guests
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Marlin says we're going college pitcher.

 

Looks like he was wrong on this one.

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Guests
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Blaine Underwood

 

Fail.

 

 

I posted it after hearing it on that speakerphone or whatever they have :blush:

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Guests
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PG has him hitting 98 at one point.
davell Chicago Cubs

davell

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This is the most upside we could possibly have taken. And he's a good kid too. Favorite pick for me honestly.
davell Chicago Cubs

davell

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Some teams considered him a late 1st type. On potential, it'd even be higher than that, but he IS inconsistent. Definitely the lowest floor guy we've taken so far, but easily 2nd highest upside too.
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Guests
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http://www.baseballamerica.com/blog/draft/2012/05/what-to-do-with-duane-underwood/

 

Sounds like a good arm, but inconsistent. To be expected with a 17 year old kid though.

 

LOVE this pick at this point. There was some first round hype but he was very inconsistent down the stretch. Some of his problems seem fixable. I'd guess he has a higher ceiling than Blackburn.

 

BA ranked him #104:

 

A Georgia signee, Underwood has plenty going for him. He has a quick arm and athletic frame at 6-foot-3, 210 pounds, and if he winds up in Athens, he has a chance to contribute as both a hitter (he's a solid-average runner) and on the mound. He's young for the draft class as well, as he turns 18 in July. Pro scouts see him as a pitcher and a potential first-rounder on the right day, but that had not happened often enough in his senior season. Underwood at his best has a fastball that sits in the 91-94 mph range and touches 97-98. He has shown the ability to spin a breaking ball, though his curve often is soft in the 73-75 mph range and he tends to overthrow it. He has a firm but effective changeup, and this spring it has been his best pitch, in part because it's the pitch he controls the best. Underwood's fastball command has been erratic this spring, and his velocity often drops off quickly into the 87-92 mph range, and he hasn't shown much feel for pitching this spring. His mechanics are sound, though at times he loses his tempo and rushes his delivery. Scouts also want to see him handle adversity better. Scouts like Underwood and he had some supplemental-round buzz, but his inconsistent spring could knock him back a bit.

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