Random Baseball Musings

[Sammy Sofa]

I'm never trolling; I hate what I hate and I like what I like. My brutal honesty and cacophonous prose are often intimidating.

[OleMissCub]

Sergio Romo's ERA is 4.24 and his WHIP is 0.986.

 

That's pretty damn odd.

[Rob]

I'm still pissed we didn't sign every big FA. Theo's had a ridiculously lucky streak where basically every big FA and every big pitcher has inexplicably [expletive] the bed or ended up nearly crippled, but he's still an evil dick and I [expletive] hate the timeline The Plan with every fiber of my being.

 

I'm trying to think of the last big FA signing that didn't end up providing pretty poor value...

 

Technically it was just an extension, but Jeter's big contract with the Yankees went alright. Beltran kinda [expletive] the bed at the end of his Mets deal but they got what they paid for.

 

The next best outcome may actually be Alfonso Soriano, believe it or not.

 

What are you limiting big FA to?

 

The sample size for this experiment was all the ~$100M+ deals I could remember off the top of my head.

[Rob]

I'm still pissed we didn't sign every big FA. Theo's had a ridiculously lucky streak where basically every big FA and every big pitcher has inexplicably [expletive] the bed or ended up nearly crippled, but he's still an evil dick and I [expletive] hate the timeline The Plan with every fiber of my being.

 

I'm trying to think of the last big FA signing that didn't end up providing pretty poor value...

 

Technically it was just an extension, but Jeter's big contract with the Yankees went alright. Beltran kinda [expletive] the bed at the end of his Mets deal but they got what they paid for.

 

The next best outcome may actually be Alfonso Soriano, believe it or not.

Beltre

 

Good call.

 

Cabrera and Pujols had pretty good production for their mega-extensions. But those were just arb-eligible deals.

[Guest]

I've yet to be proven wrong in particular about King Felix's extension, though I think I've been vindicated in the general point.

[Hairyducked Idiot]

I'm never trolling; I hate what I hate and I like what I like. My brutal honesty and cacophonous prose are often intimidating.

 

That is the Kyle-est thing ever written on this site, and it didn't even come from me. :(

[Sammy Sofa]

I'm never trolling; I hate what I hate and I like what I like. My brutal honesty and cacophonous prose are often intimidating.

 

That is the Kyle-est thing ever written on this site, and it didn't even come from me. :(

 

http://www.quickmeme.com/img/0b/0b0ba53d1a6801a706cce2eb1f5454c60bda7e7526cfaf2f4b68786cc1b73dff.jpg

[Hairyducked Idiot]

In my eyes? I said it pretty explicitly.

[seanimal]

I'm still pissed we didn't sign every big FA. Theo's had a ridiculously lucky streak where basically every big FA and every big pitcher has inexplicably [expletive] the bed or ended up nearly crippled, but he's still an evil dick and I [expletive] hate the timeline The Plan with every fiber of my being.

 

at some point it stops being luck and the product of sound decision making

[seanimal]

I'm never trolling; I hate what I hate and I like what I like. My brutal honesty and cacophonous prose are often intimidating.

 

That is the Kyle-est thing ever written on this site, and it didn't even come from me. :(

 

not really

[Sammy Sofa]

No, it's luck. Theo is praising all of his accursed pseudo-voodoo shrines that it worked out this way. How often have we have seen a slew of this many major pitching injuries in such a short span of time? It was always a given you were overpaying for big talent before, but it really seems like a ridiculous number of big FA aren't just that and are instead just [expletive] their pants.

 

I'm very likely wrong, but a ton of this just seems like good timing as opposed to an actual shift or trends that will continue.

[Rob]

No, it's luck. Theo is praising all of his accursed pseudo-voodoo shrines that it worked out this way.

 

I didn't know he was catholic.

[imb]

[expletive] off mojo you loser virgin

[Sammy Sofa]

Never. I won't leave until Scrogge McRicketts and his motherboy Theo are driven back into the dank bog they crawled out of.

[seanimal]

I'm very likely wrong

 

you are most certainly wrong

[seanimal]

No, it's luck. Theo is praising all of his accursed pseudo-voodoo shrines that it worked out this way.

 

I didn't know he was catholic.

 

what on earth

[Sammy Sofa]

I'm very likely wrong

 

you are most certainly wrong

 

Then it is a startlingly different era of baseball that we are stepping into.

[seanimal]

I'm very likely wrong

 

you are most certainly wrong

 

Then it is a startlingly different era of baseball that we are stepping into.

 

look around, we've been in it for several years now. the decline of ped's and the rising average age of prime free agents has absolutely changed the way front offices should approach free agent acquisitions. you're absolutely right that the sheer level of injuries and rapidly declining performance is uncanny and unpredictable, but only insomuch as how *quickly* those things have happened

[Sammy Sofa]

I'm very likely wrong

 

you are most certainly wrong

 

Then it is a startlingly different era of baseball that we are stepping into.

 

look around, we've been in it for several years now. the decline of ped's and the rising average age of prime free agents has absolutely changed the way front offices should approach free agent acquisitions. you're absolutely right that the sheer level of injuries and rapidly declining performance is uncanny and unpredictable, but only insomuch as how *quickly* those things have happened

 

So won't the game just adjust accordingly based on past practices as opposed to ideal ones? It seems unlikely that you'll be able to snag guys like Castro and especially Rizzo on such team-friendly deals real soon; we'll probably just see prime free agents becoming available at younger ages as their agents and the union talk them out of waiting. And the pitching thing especially just feels more like the fluky timing of a bunch of injuries in close proximity to each other as opposed to an actual trend.

[Sammys Boombox]

Um, the Royals are going to be on ESPN Sunday Night Baseball on August 31. First time since 1996.

[Rob]

I'm very likely wrong

 

you are most certainly wrong

 

Then it is a startlingly different era of baseball that we are stepping into.

 

look around, we've been in it for several years now. the decline of ped's and the rising average age of prime free agents has absolutely changed the way front offices should approach free agent acquisitions. you're absolutely right that the sheer level of injuries and rapidly declining performance is uncanny and unpredictable, but only insomuch as how *quickly* those things have happened

 

So won't the game just adjust accordingly based on past practices as opposed to ideal ones? It seems unlikely that you'll be able to snag guys like Castro and especially Rizzo on such team-friendly deals real soon; we'll probably just see prime free agents becoming available at younger ages as their agents and the union talk them out of waiting. And the pitching thing especially just feels more like the fluky timing of a bunch of injuries in close proximity to each other as opposed to an actual trend.

 

You may see the early extensions become less team-friendly, but I think these extensions are here to stay.

 

You seem to be operating under the assumption that the market will react rationally. But a lot of the appeal of these deals for the players has little to do with logic. If you had an opportunity to take a deal that would guarantee the future of you and your family before you even played a game in the majors, that's a huge selling point. A lot of guys are going to look right past the fact they should maybe get paid 15-20% more and take that safety net. And I don't see that changing anytime soon.

[seanimal]

I'm very likely wrong

 

you are most certainly wrong

 

Then it is a startlingly different era of baseball that we are stepping into.

 

look around, we've been in it for several years now. the decline of ped's and the rising average age of prime free agents has absolutely changed the way front offices should approach free agent acquisitions. you're absolutely right that the sheer level of injuries and rapidly declining performance is uncanny and unpredictable, but only insomuch as how *quickly* those things have happened

 

So won't the game just adjust accordingly based on past practices as opposed to ideal ones? It seems unlikely that you'll be able to snag guys like Castro and especially Rizzo on such team-friendly deals real soon; we'll probably just see prime free agents becoming available at younger ages as their agents and the union talk them out of waiting. And the pitching thing especially just feels more like the fluky timing of a bunch of injuries in close proximity to each other as opposed to an actual trend.

 

sure, just as the pendulum swings one way, we can reason that it will swing back. i'm not sure what value that knowledge is though, since it has little bearing on the here and now of the baseball labor market. furthermore, a signing like albert pujols to a 10 year contract starting his age 32 season reinforces the current trend. until those contracts stop coming, the market for younger players won't change. in that it mostly won't exist

[Sammy Sofa]

You may see the early extensions become less team-friendly, but I think these extensions are here to stay.

 

You seem to be operating under the assumption that the market will react rationally. But a lot of the appeal of these deals for the players has little to do with logic. If you had an opportunity to take a deal that would guarantee the future of you and your family before you even played a game in the majors, that's a huge selling point. A lot of guys are going to look right past the fact they should maybe get paid 15-20% more and take that safety net. And I don't see that changing anytime soon.

 

See, THAT just seems too rational to me, and I just don't see the union and especially the agents really letting it happen if the big later paydays start vanishing. But hey, we'll see.

[seanimal]

You seem to be operating under the assumption that the market will react rationally.

 

the folly is assuming that my/his/your version of rational is meaningful given that none of us are actors in this market. the market is absolutely behaving rationally

[seanimal]

anyway the point is you should admit now that you've been absolutely wrong and that the only honorable thing would be to commit hara kiri. which of course would be an excellent look with your robe