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Sammy Sofa

By Sammy Sofa,
in General Baseball Talk

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Hairyducked Idiot All-Star

Hairyducked Idiot

Old-Timey Member
Posted
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*knocks on all the wood* Still feels like health is on the Cubs' side so far this spring. All we've got is little nicks on Arrieta and Olt.

 

They're starting to pile up elsewhere. Sano's elbow is acting up again and they are talking surgery, which might move him off 3b forever.

Clem Fandango All-Star

Clem Fandango

Old-Timey Member
Posted
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For some reason I thought recovery time for position players who get TJS was like 4-6 months, not 8 months.

 

It's unfortunate, but for some reason I find myself rooting against all the guys that the scouting world said was better than Javier Baez this past season, so this news makes me feel oddly smug.

Hairyducked Idiot All-Star

Hairyducked Idiot

Old-Timey Member
Posted
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BP's 25-and-under talent rankings have my majestic doom boner raging:

 

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=22944

 

NL Central

1. St. Louis

4. Pitttsburgh

10. Cubs

23. Reds

29. Brewers

 

The Cardinals possess a perfect collection of talent. Their farm system ranks as one of the best in the game, teeming with both depth and impact ceilings, and the major-league roster is filled with young players making an impression on both sides of the ball.

 

 

Reds got boned by having three of their best guys turn 26.

Guest

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Guests
Posted
Posted
I can't wait til the Cardinals don't hit .350 with RISP
Guest

Guest

Guests
Posted
Posted
I can't wait til the Cardinals don't hit .350 with RISP

 

They've balancing that out this year by graduating a metric crap-ton of talent to the majors and to full-time duty.

 

I don't think that'll balance that out.

Hairyducked Idiot All-Star

Hairyducked Idiot

Old-Timey Member
Posted
Posted

They were also four wins *below* their pythagorean wins last year. So they should get some bounceback from that.

 

They hit .269 overall last year and .330 in 1355 at-bats w/RISP. So a .061 differential with a lazy assumption of one run per hit is 83 runs, or about nine wins.

 

They get four back on Pyth, so that leaves five. They'll make that up on Tavares and a couple of pitchers easily.

Guest

Guest

Guests
Posted
Posted
Regression still puts them at like, 90 wins. If you want maximum schadenfreude for the Cardinals, you need the pitching to not work. There's reasons it could happen, but it's not terribly likely. Wainwright has an injury history. Miller was mysteriously shutdown last year which could be injury, could be strife with the organization. Wacha's peripherals as a SP aren't those of the top of rotation stalwart some think he is. Kelly's peripherals are downright mediocre, Martinez may still be a reliever, and Garcia is already hurt again. It'd take 3 of those really negative outcomes(maybe 2 if they were the right 2) to derail their season, but that's where it'll come apart for them if it does.
Guest

Guest

Guests
Posted
Posted
They were also four wins *below* their pythagorean wins last year. So they should get some bounceback from that.

 

They hit .269 overall last year and .330 in 1355 at-bats w/RISP. So a .061 differential with a lazy assumption of one run per hit is 83 runs, or about nine wins.

 

They get four back on Pyth, so that leaves five. They'll make that up on Tavares and a couple of pitchers easily.

 

Expecting 5 wins over who they are replacing from a few rookies is something that will "easily" happen?

Guest

Guest

Guests
Posted
Posted
Regression still puts them at like, 90 wins. If you want maximum schadenfreude for the Cardinals, you need the pitching to not work. There's reasons it could happen, but it's not terribly likely. Wainwright has an injury history. Miller was mysteriously shutdown last year which could be injury, could be strife with the organization. Wacha's peripherals as a SP aren't those of the top of rotation stalwart some think he is. Kelly's peripherals are downright mediocre, Martinez may still be a reliever, and Garcia is already hurt again. It'd take 3 of those really negative outcomes(maybe 2 if they were the right 2) to derail their season, but that's where it'll come apart for them if it does.

 

I fully expect Matt Carpenter to regress, too.

 

That said, I don't actually expect their season to be "derailed" if that means them not being good. I just don't think they are *that* good. I'd project them in the mid 80's.

Guest

Guest

Guests
Posted
Posted
Regression still puts them at like, 90 wins. If you want maximum schadenfreude for the Cardinals, you need the pitching to not work. There's reasons it could happen, but it's not terribly likely. Wainwright has an injury history. Miller was mysteriously shutdown last year which could be injury, could be strife with the organization. Wacha's peripherals as a SP aren't those of the top of rotation stalwart some think he is. Kelly's peripherals are downright mediocre, Martinez may still be a reliever, and Garcia is already hurt again. It'd take 3 of those really negative outcomes(maybe 2 if they were the right 2) to derail their season, but that's where it'll come apart for them if it does.

 

I fully expect Matt Carpenter to regress, too.

 

That said, I don't actually expect their season to be "derailed" if that means them not being good. I just don't think they are *that* good. I'd project them in the mid 80's.

 

In the sense that ZiPS projects no one to win more than 87-88 games, sure. But they have too much depth to not exceed a regressed total unless a couple things go catastrophically wrong.

Bull ACL Cubs

Bull

Old-Timey Member
Posted
Posted
What the cardinals do this year really doesn't affect us at all. The bigger concern is how these 25 and unders are doing when we're competing

If only every season was sacred. Then it would matter.

Guest

Guest

Guests
Posted
Posted
BP's 25-and-under talent rankings have my majestic doom boner raging:

 

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=22944

 

NL Central

1. St. Louis

4. Pitttsburgh

10. Cubs

23. Reds

29. Brewers

 

The Cardinals possess a perfect collection of talent. Their farm system ranks as one of the best in the game, teeming with both depth and impact ceilings, and the major-league roster is filled with young players making an impression on both sides of the ball.

 

 

Reds got boned by having three of their best guys turn 26.

 

I wonder how high the Cubs would be on that list had Rizzo and Castro looked more like they were expected to numbers-wise last year.

Guest

Guest

Guests
Posted
Posted
It took me a bit, but I see you David Price

That's quite a bat.

Formerly Snayke ACL Cubs

Formerly Snayke

Verified Member
Posted
Posted
I can't wait til the Cardinals don't hit .350 with RISP

 

They've balancing that out this year by graduating a metric crap-ton of talent to the majors and to full-time duty.

 

I don't think that'll balance that out.

 

Assuming good health, they improved their defense by leaps and bounds with Carpenter, Wong/Ellis and Bourjos. They also swapped out a historically bad offensive shortstop for one who should at least be 150 points better. They didn't win 97 games because of RISP.

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