Minor League Discussion & Boxes 4-30-12

[Cubswin11]

They aren't having Concepcion do anything like change something in his mechanics, learn a new pitch, not throw a certain pitch, or focus on throwing more of one pitch. Are they?

[videographer]

I attended the final Peoria vs. Fort Wayne game this morning and here are my observations:

 

Concepcion, Cruz, Shafer, Liria and Lorrick pitched today.

 

Concepcion turned 20 years old in February, but has a mature (older looking) face and good physical make up. When the Chiefs made the last out in the first, Concepcion was quickly out of the dugout and ran to the mound. He retired the first hitter and then the wheels came off allowing 7 runs in 2/3 of an inning. His delivery is smooth and very simple with a classic 3/4 arm angle. He has no wind up. He turns his plant foot, raises his leg and throws with minimal shoulder turn. From behind the plate, I saw very little to no deception to his delivery. I imagine the Tin Caps got a very good look at the ball coming out of his hand. Concepcion's FB was 86-88 mph (when the scoreboard showed the speed) with little movement. His curve was rolling with an occasional late snap. He also threw a couple of change ups that were inconsistent. Gerado's location was not good, leaving too many pitches over the plate, belt high. After he was taken out of the game, he sat on the bench with his head down for a long time, wiping the water from his eyes after a few minutes. His teammates were very supportive of him in the dugout with several players consoling him.

 

My first impression of Concepcion is he must have more deception to his delivery. Right now, I want to take a turn in the batter's box against him. His stuff cannot overcome his delivery. In his defense, he looks the part of a pitcher with smooth actions and physical make up. At this time, he doesn't throw an out-pitch or locate his FB very well. If he was a 6-figure signing, I would say wait 4 years. However, the $6 million contract will hang over his head and may stunt his growth. He is a looong way from Wrigley Field.

 

Wellington Cruz replaced Concepcion and promptly gave up a bases loaded double that pinned the last 3 runs on Concepcion's ERA. Cruz is tall and lanky. He has a low 3/4 arm angle and a jerky delivery. He also has very little wind up. He turns his plant foot, raises his leg, dips his shoulder then whips or slings his arm quickly toward home plate. There is nothing smooth about his motion. Needless to say, his control and command were all over the place. The scoreboard rarely posted his pitch speed, but from other pitchers later in the game, he wasn't throwing very hard - no catcher's mitt pop. His curveball was very inconsistent and he couldn't put in in the strike zone. He also throws a change up that was more effective, but average at best. Although his pitching line looked good, his performance relied on having the Tin Caps chase bad pitches. One last thing, his motion was so jerky that 6-8 different times he had to call time to tuck the front of his jersey back in.

 

After the Tin Caps put a 7 spot on the board in the 1st inning, the Chiefs looked deflated and the game was rather boring; the tone rarely changed the last 8 innings. The 11am start and $1 food family day promotion brought plenty of bus loads of school children and young families, keeping an up beat buzz off the field more so than on.

 

Bryce Shafer followed Cruz to the mound. He also has a funky delivery. He has a quick, high leg kick then a slight pause before throwing from a high 3/4 arm angle. The catcher's mitt popped with Shafer's FB and he consistently kept it low in the strike zone. I suspect this is why the over-aged Shafer is still pitching in the minors. Because of his funky delivery, he had control problems, but managed to get out of trouble.

 

Luis Liria followed Shafer and threw his first pitch over the umpire's head to the backstop. He pitched exclusively from the stretch. I don't know why or if that is an indication of future use. He threw too few pitches for me to get a good understanding of his stuff or demeanor.

 

Jeffrey Lorrick pitched the last inning and has a classic 3/4 arm delivery. He also throws a hard FB, popping the catcher's mitt. I suspect that is why he still pitching over-aged in low A. He looked good, but had command issues. His FB showed excellent movement, tailing away and moving inside (probably a cutter). His curve had good snap, but he struggled to throw strikes with it. I imagine Lorrick will move up to Daytona when ext. spring training arms are moved up to Peoria.

 

Final thoughts on positions players:

 

DeVoss continued to impress me. He is a well-built, tightly wound, albeit short player (in comparison to teammates). He runs on his toes and is quick in his actions. He is a switch-hitter that pulls the ball too much - all but one at bat were pulled. My conclusion is he is the top player at Peoria.

 

Darvill played SS again and fielded his position cleanly. His best play was going into the hole and throwing a runner out at 1B with a strong throw. When he was signed, reports from AZ Phil pegged Darvill with a weak arm (possible shoulder problems). However, that is no longer the case. Darvill has the talent to be a success, but the production is inconsistent. If the light goes on, his tall, athletic build and bat speed will be fun to watch. I don't know. We have been waiting awhile and I remember Tim Wilkens talking about Darvill in the spring of 2011, saying the kid was ready to break out. Darvill is now on the clock.

 

After watching Pin Chieh Chen for three games, I am not convinced he will be a player. There is no urgency to his play. When he is not running out a batted ball or fielding a hit ball, he looks methodical and uninterested. He looks like a ball player, tall, wiry, and athletic, but his approach in the batter's box has left me disappointed. He has the "Fukudome bucket stride" with his butt bailing out. His flat, "Asian slap" approach may work well for Ichiro and Hak Ju Lee, but Chen doesn't have the bat speed to make it work. I also question whether he can hit a good FB. At times he was over-matched in the box. He does show patience at the plate; drawing walks and bunting are part of his game. Two years ago, Jae Hoon Ha showed aggressive moxie at Peoria and I knew he would advance to higher levels. I just don't know about Chen. It is April and the weather in the Midwest has been cold. A warm summer may light a fire in the kid . . . or not.

 

Oliver Zapata has a strong arm in right field. He is a short, well-built (almost thick), baby face 19 year old. He is mired in slump and looked over-matched at the plate. He consistently swung at balls out of the strike zone and was late on good FBs. I would like to see him when he's hitting well. He gets good leverage hitting off his front foot, but his hands and weight-shift are out of sync. Too early for prospect or suspect.

 

Rafael Lopez caught the last two games and showed a mature game behind the plate. He is short and well-built. His swing is compact and smooth. He will hit the ball where it's pitched. Lopez will advance up the ladder, but will be over-aged in each league. My guess, he will top out as a back up in AA.

 

Although I was not very impressed with Cuneo's athleticism, when he hits the ball it is more often than not a line drive that carries well. His mature approach at the plate will allow him to draw paychecks until the many lower level first basemen start to advance.

 

Paul Hoilman his big, broad and well-built. He runs well and swings at everything. When he makes contact, the ball goes. The problem is he rarely makes contact. He plays like he enjoys the game and will use his Ivy League degree sooner than later.

 

Brad Zapenas played 3B the last two games and hit very well, going with the pitch and driving the ball to the outfield. He is tall, thin and runs fairly well. His swing is loose with a lot of wrist action and little shoulder turn. His actions in the field are of a player well-schooled at baseball. His arm is okay at 3B. I wish he were 4 years younger. I can see why he was drafted as a organizational player. Solid.

 

Overall, the top prospects (best chance to reach the ML), in my opinion, are DeVoss, Marco Hernandez, Ben Wells, Jose Rosario, Kyler Burke and Wes Darvill - in that order. I didn't see Reggie Golden or Andrew McKirahan. Easterling,Chen and Cruz seem to be fringe. Taylor Davis was impressive in one game as DH. I didn't see enough of Luis Liria and Yao Lin Wang and Austin Reed is a wild card, "wild" being the operative adjective.

 

Although Peoria lost 2 of 3 to Fort Wayne, I was impressed with the professionalism of the play and the athleticism of the team. One of the more talented Peoria teams.

[Hairyducked Idiot]

Concepcion's FB was 86-88 mph (when the scoreboard showed the speed) with little movement.

 

:sad:

[SouthSideRyan]

Thanks videographer, love these reports.

[TruffleShuffle]

Somewhere there's an alternate world where Vitters was a second-round pick and played at age-appropriate levels every step of the way. In that world, Cubs fans drool over what a great find he is.

Did we take Wieters in the first round in that alternate universe?

 

Yep and everyone's pissed it took him 4/5 years to have a 4 WAR season in the MLB considering his hype.

 

who cares? he still put up borderline star-level production in his age 25 season, plays elite defense and is arguably the best all-around catcher in baseball now. i'd sure as hell take that over a guy with questionable plate discipline and defense and zero major league at bats.

[PriortoTheoIhadWood]

Awesome again videographer. Hearing good things about Darvill lately has me hoping he can replace LeMahieu as my favorite IF sleeper. Do you think he can play 2B?

[Guest]

Junior Lake was 1/5 with a BB, a 2B and a SB. Jose Arias continues to look good: 3 IP, 2 H, 0 R, 1 BB, 3 K

 

http://www.thecubreporter.com/2012/04/30/angels-edge-cubs-diablo

[Guest]

I'm not exactly sure how The Cubs Way is being implemented. I do know that the minor league managers and coaches have a lot more analytical work to do after each day's game and/or workout, and some of it is apparently pretty complicated (compared to what they used to have to do).

 

http://www.thecubreporter.com/2012/04/29/cubs-2012-extended-spring-training-stats-update-429#comment-202197

[Guest]

Really nice run Szczur is on, .333/.435/.538 over the last 10, showing power, speed, and discipline. Very impressed that it seems like he's found a balance between discipline and instinct.

Now that he's getting on base, he's stealing **a lot**.

 

Nine steals in the past 10 games.

[nick23]

A few observation from the Iowa/Memphis game.

I'm really impressed with Brett Jackson's approach at the plate. He drew an impressive walk in the 9th after going down 0-2. In the first inning he hit a shot to CF that I thought was out but it died at the wall. His single was a solid line drive to RF.

Rizzo looked really good at the plate. He seemed to always be deep in the count and roped a two run single to RF off Shelby Miller. His other hit was also a very hard hit ball up the middle.

Vitters looked just ok. His one hit was one he took the other way but was more of a seeing eye single. His first at bat was a check swing groundout to 2nd on the first pitch. He also had a line-out to left that was on the 1st pitch. Pretty swing though. He only got two chances in the field. One he handled fine and the other he went to throw the ball and basically fell down without throwing it. Kind of funny actually. He got up smiling. He does seem to have a very strong arm though from watching him warm up between innings.

Travis Wood was nothing sepcial. Gave up two big HR's to Allan Craig. Worked mostly in the 87-91 range. Wasn't fooling anybody with his offspeed stuff either. Also that Memphis line-up is pretty brutal.

Both Batista and Beliveau looked good, but I was more impressed with Beliveau. Hitters just don't seem to pick him up very well. Both worked between 89-91 but that gun might be a little slow because Shelby Miller was mostly between 90-92. For some reason I thought Miller threw harder than that. However the closer for the Redbirds was mid 90's consistently. Oh, and the Miller Lite was cold. And tasty.

[jersey cubs fan]

Somewhere there's an alternate world where Vitters was a second-round pick and played at age-appropriate levels every step of the way. In that world, Cubs fans drool over what a great find he is.

 

Why the hell would people be drooling over him? He's done nothing as a pro. Regardless of draft position, he's not a good defensive 3B and he hasn't produced. If, instead of promoting him every time he had a good weekend they forced him to play full seasons at the lower levels then maybe his numbers would be a bit better. But he's got a career OPS of 750 and a current OPS of 611 in an extreme hitters league. Where would the drooling come in? I think the primary reason people still have hope is that he was a 1st round draft pick and is young. If he was just a 2nd round pick without all the hype and hope of potential stardom and was putting up high 700 OPS while playing a poor 3B. Nobody would think much of him at all.

[Guest]

I think the implication was that by playing at age appropriate levels(like staying in Peoria for all of '09, Daytona for '10, etc), you would've seen much better numbers from Vitters. I don't think it would make much difference in his development, but cosmetically he'd have been more appealing.

 

Anymore, I think my primary interest in Vitters is seeing if he can flip a switch and increase his trade value. It's hard to picture him as a particularly valuable part of a MLB roster at the moment.

[jersey cubs fan]

I think the implication was that by playing at age appropriate levels(like staying in Peoria for all of '09, Daytona for '10, etc), you would've seen much better numbers from Vitters. I don't think it would make much difference in his development, but cosmetically he'd have been more appealing.

 

Anymore, I think my primary interest in Vitters is seeing if he can flip a switch and increase his trade value. It's hard to picture him as a particularly valuable part of a MLB roster at the moment.

 

I understand. But it's a 2 way street. Without the 1st round draft pick status, people wouldn't maintain the hope for as long as they have. How much production can you actually add to his numbers? His OBP wouldn't be any higher. Might he have a little more SLG? Give him 40 points of OPS and he's still not that impressive of a prospect when you consider he can't play 3B at anything more than a subpar level. Who is going to be drooling over that? People would still just be holding out hope. Or is Klye pretending that Vitters would have an OPS of 850 and be good at defense?

[KingCubsFan]

I think the implication was that by playing at age appropriate levels(like staying in Peoria for all of '09, Daytona for '10, etc), you would've seen much better numbers from Vitters. I don't think it would make much difference in his development, but cosmetically he'd have been more appealing.

 

Anymore, I think my primary interest in Vitters is seeing if he can flip a switch and increase his trade value. It's hard to picture him as a particularly valuable part of a MLB roster at the moment.

I agree. With the way our front office values defense, I don't think Vitters is in the long-term plans.

[Hairyducked Idiot]

Somewhere there's an alternate world where Vitters was a second-round pick and played at age-appropriate levels every step of the way. In that world, Cubs fans drool over what a great find he is.

 

Why the hell would people be drooling over him? He's done nothing as a pro.

 

 

Because if he were playing a level or two lower, he'd have the same long-term potential but he'd have prettier numbers for people to look at.

 

Instead of putting up adequate numbers as one of the youngest players in the Southern League last year, he could have been crushing the FSL.

[jersey cubs fan]

Somewhere there's an alternate world where Vitters was a second-round pick and played at age-appropriate levels every step of the way. In that world, Cubs fans drool over what a great find he is.

 

Why the hell would people be drooling over him? He's done nothing as a pro.

 

 

Because if he were playing a level or two lower, he'd have the same long-term potential but he'd have prettier numbers for people to look at.

 

Instead of putting up adequate numbers as one of the youngest players in the Southern League last year, he could have been crushing the FSL.

 

So you are assuming he would have crushed it? To what extent? His game doesn't really lend itself to crushing.

[Hairyducked Idiot]

So you are assuming he would have crushed it? To what extent? His game doesn't really lend itself to crushing.

 

If he could put up a .770 OPS in the Southern League at his age, I feel pretty confident he could have put up an .830 or so a level down. I guess that depends on your definition of 'crushing,' but that's about what it took for people to excited about Junior Lake, who is roughly the same age as Vitters.

[KingCubsFan]

So you are assuming he would have crushed it? To what extent? His game doesn't really lend itself to crushing.

 

If he could put up a .770 OPS in the Southern League at his age, I feel pretty confident he could have put up an .830 or so a level down. I guess that depends on your definition of 'crushing,' but that's about what it took for people to excited about Junior Lake, who is roughly the same age as Vitters.

So your best-case scenario for Vitters is being comparable to a guy that half of the minor league universe thinks should be turned into a pitcher?

[toonsterwu]

I tend to agree with jcf on this one. Vitters issues seem more an issue of trying to back away from his instinctual habits on the baseball field and trying to find a balance between being disciplined and his instincts. It's hard to believe that he'd be "crushing" the FSL right now, unless the assumption is that somehow, by keeping him down, he'd have flipped some sort of switch that 5 years of coaching hasn't even minutely began to change.

 

I don't think my other point should be disregarded relative to this hypothetical, though. Admittedly, we're speaking a hypothetical that will never be known and can be debated back and forth, but I imagine, if, entering his 5th full pro season, Vitters was still in A ball, regardless of his age, there would be a vocal chorus of people, even if he was "crushing" A ball, that would be significantly disappointed in his development, to say the least. Particularly if you are using a .830 OPS in A+ ball as a measure for "crushing" it.

 

With Vitters, as I said above, I tend to think that the fact that he was so young out of HS makes age-appropriate ... a hard discussion to have as it pertains to his development and fan reactions. He'll always be too young for his level unless you keep him floating around in the minors in the low levels for 5 years, at which point, there has to be a level of legitimate questioning on his abilities.

[Hairyducked Idiot]

So you are assuming he would have crushed it? To what extent? His game doesn't really lend itself to crushing.

 

If he could put up a .770 OPS in the Southern League at his age, I feel pretty confident he could have put up an .830 or so a level down. I guess that depends on your definition of 'crushing,' but that's about what it took for people to excited about Junior Lake, who is roughly the same age as Vitters.

So your best-case scenario for Vitters is being comparable to a guy that half of the minor league universe thinks should be turned into a pitcher?

 

That wasn't my best-case scenario for Vitters. That was just a conservative translation of what he did last season into an age-appropriate level.

 

I never said that Vitters was a top-tier prospect. Just that I think he's being underrated by Cubs fans because of the disappointment that he's not living up to his draft slot and the fact that his numbers aren't shiny enough because of his aggressive promotion schedule.

[KingCubsFan]

So you are assuming he would have crushed it? To what extent? His game doesn't really lend itself to crushing.

 

If he could put up a .770 OPS in the Southern League at his age, I feel pretty confident he could have put up an .830 or so a level down. I guess that depends on your definition of 'crushing,' but that's about what it took for people to excited about Junior Lake, who is roughly the same age as Vitters.

So your best-case scenario for Vitters is being comparable to a guy that half of the minor league universe thinks should be turned into a pitcher?

 

That wasn't my best-case scenario for Vitters. That was just a conservative translation of what he did last season into an age-appropriate level.

 

I never said that Vitters was a top-tier prospect. Just that I think he's being underrated by Cubs fans because of the disappointment that he's not living up to his draft slot and the fact that his numbers aren't shiny enough because of his aggressive promotion schedule.

I think he tends to overrated, particularly on this board. Other than the fact that he was a top pick, he hasn't done much professionally to warrant much attention. Besides the walk rate, the fact that his projected power hasn't really translated to game situations consistently is also concerning. The age argument only goes so far, particularly when his teammate who is three weeks older is destroying the PCL for the second straight year and Mike Moustakas is doing well in the majors.

 

With that said, it's clear he's trying to make adjustments (probably mandated by the front office), so I'm not totally giving up on him. But I think expecting him to be a major league contributor at this point is ambitious until he shows more.

[toonsterwu]

Well, let's take the dynamic that jcf loosely suggested. Let's forget he was a top 5 pick. If Vitters was a 5th round pick, 21, somehow in AAA now, and had the same numbers he had going up the ladder, would he deserve to be rated any higher? We don't know what Vitters would've become if he had been held back, but I have high doubts, if we changed the hypothetical to an issue of draft slot, that Vitters would be rated any higher.

 

I still have an issue with the idea that Vitters was put on an "aggressive promotion schedule", tbh. It may be an issue of definitions, though, particularly as it relates to the word "schedule" in this circumstance. I just don't know, in looking back now, with the benefit of hindsight, that there have been that many points in time where he was "rushed" up the ladder, which the wording seems to suggest. He's basically had a full season at each level, and the Cubs were very careful in sending him down to Boise again that first year and not letting him up. In hindsight, I really can't fault them for sending him to Daytona in 2009. I know I initially had an issue with that, because IIRC that half year in Peoria for him, it was very streaky, but considering his draft status and the fact that he had a decent overall line in MWL, you hope he learns as he goes up the ladder.

 

Starting him at Daytona in 2010 was the right thing to do. If I have any issue with his overall "promotion schedule", it's with the one point in time - his bump in 2010 to AA. Leaving that aside, he had a full year and a half in AA, and while I wouldn't have had an issue with Vitters in AA again this year, I also understand why the new regime chose, for a guy in his 5th full season of pro ball and hitting Rule 5 years, to put him in AAA.

 

I guess, I don't disagree with the idea that we could've been slower with him, but I also don't think he was rushed that much relative to how his overall career arc has looked. He's been in pro ball since 2007. The better issue, IMO, is whether or not the practices of the old "old school" regime was the right match for Vitters development.

Edited May 1, 2012 by toonsterwu

[Splendid Splinter]

Really nice run Szczur is on, .333/.435/.538 over the last 10, showing power, speed, and discipline. Very impressed that it seems like he's found a balance between discipline and instinct.

Now that he's getting on base, he's stealing **a lot**.

 

Nine steals in the past 10 games.

 

 

 

I'm not impressed... LOL jk If you wanna be impressed with steals, check out Billy Hamilton. He's going nuts the past 10 games. http://www.milb.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?pos=SS&sid=milb&t=p_pbp&pid=571740

[Guest]

A 140+ pace for steals isn't anything to sneeze at, especially for someone slugging .530 at the same time.

 

On Vitters: he's struggled after each promotion. I'm willing to give him more than a few weeks at AAA to establish what he's going to do there.

[jersey cubs fan]

In hindsight, I really can't fault them for sending him to Daytona in 2009. I know I initially had an issue with that, because IIRC that half year in Peoria for him, it was very streaky, but considering his draft status and the fact that he had a decent overall line in MWL, you hope he learns as he goes up the ladder.

 

He was terrible, then had a huge weekend and was promoted. It was bizarre.