Re: College Basketball 2012-2013

[Formerly Snayke]

The best team in the nation won in East Lansing last night. Look at Florida's resume, then look at Indiana's, and it becomes pretty difficult to come to a different conclusion. Indiana has a better record in the Big Ten than Florida has in the SEC.

 

Even after losing last night Florida is still Pomeroy's No. 1 team and ranked No. 2 respectively in both offense and defense.

 

As for SOS, Sagarin gives Florida the edge.

 

Indiana is a close No. 2, but they are still No. 2.

[Exile on Waveland]

The best team in the nation won in East Lansing last night. Look at Florida's resume, then look at Indiana's, and it becomes pretty difficult to come to a different conclusion. Indiana has a better record in the Big Ten than Florida has in the SEC.

 

Even after losing last night Florida is still Pomeroy's No. 1 team and ranked No. 2 respectively in both offense and defense.

 

As for SOS, Sagarin gives Florida the edge.

 

Indiana is a close No. 2, but they are still No. 2.

 

And we all know Pomeroy is not perfect (Sagarin has Indiana No. 1, for what it's worth.) The strength of schedule is skewed because Crean likes to schedule multiple body bag games in the non-conference season (IU had the No. 293 Pomeroy non-conference schedule, Florida No. 48); which hurts the overall strength of schedule but tells us very little -- for teams at the top, beating a team ranked No. 150 or a team ranked No. 250 is an irrelevancy. Florida has exactly one win against a Pomeroy top-20 team (dominating Wisconsin -- way back on November 14). Indiana has six such wins, two on the road. IU is 7-1 against the Sagarin top-25; Florida 4-3. Florida also just lost a key player to injury (Will Yeguete).

[Thed Hoyerstein]

The Big Ten tourney is going to be nuts.

[Exile on Waveland]

The Big Ten tourney is going to be nuts.

 

Wish it was in Indianapolis this year so I could go. There are eight teams that could win it without me being totally shocked. I'm expecting at least one big upset on Friday.

[Cubswin11]

The Big Ten tourney is going to be nuts.

 

Wish it was in Indianapolis this year so I could go. There are eight teams that could win it without me being totally shocked. I'm expecting at least one big upset on Friday.

I'm probably heading down for a day or two for it, should be a great time. I just want the regular season to be over with and the conference/NCAA Tournaments to start

[bukie]

The Big Ten tourney is going to be nuts.

 

Wish it was in Indianapolis this year so I could go. There are eight teams that could win it without me being totally shocked. I'm expecting at least one big upset on Friday.

Any team winning Friday wouldn't be a big upset. I'm expecting at least one big upset Thursday between Purdue/NW/Nebraska/PSU.

[bukie]

And we all know Pomeroy is not perfect (Sagarin has Indiana No. 1, for what it's worth.) The strength of schedule is skewed because Crean likes to schedule multiple body bag games in the non-conference season (IU had the No. 293 Pomeroy non-conference schedule, Florida No. 48); which hurts the overall strength of schedule but tells us very little -- for teams at the top, beating a team ranked No. 150 or a team ranked No. 250 is an irrelevancy. Florida has exactly one win against a Pomeroy top-20 team (dominating Wisconsin -- way back on November 14). Indiana has six such wins, two on the road. IU is 7-1 against the Sagarin top-25; Florida 4-3. Florida also just lost a key player to injury (Will Yeguete).

 

There is definitely a difference between a ~150 rated team and a ~300 rated team. Saying the strength of schedule is skewed because Crean schedules poorly isn't a reflection on the strength of schedule numbers.

 

EDIT: Florida is rated higher in Pomeroy's ratings because they've been posting completely insane efficiency numbers in the SEC this season. Just crazy.

[Exile on Waveland]

And we all know Pomeroy is not perfect (Sagarin has Indiana No. 1, for what it's worth.) The strength of schedule is skewed because Crean likes to schedule multiple body bag games in the non-conference season (IU had the No. 293 Pomeroy non-conference schedule, Florida No. 48); which hurts the overall strength of schedule but tells us very little -- for teams at the top, beating a team ranked No. 150 or a team ranked No. 250 is an irrelevancy. Florida has exactly one win against a Pomeroy top-20 team (dominating Wisconsin -- way back on November 14). Indiana has six such wins, two on the road. IU is 7-1 against the Sagarin top-25; Florida 4-3. Florida also just lost a key player to injury (Will Yeguete).

 

There is definitely a difference between a ~150 rated team and a ~300 rated team. Saying the strength of schedule is skewed because Crean schedules poorly isn't a reflection on the strength of schedule numbers.

 

EDIT: Florida is rated higher in Pomeroy's ratings because they've been posting completely insane efficiency numbers in the SEC this season. Just crazy.

 

Sure, there is a difference. But top-5 type teams basically never lose to those teams. As an example of what I was saying, if IU went 10-0 in the non-conference against teams ranked 200-209, and Florida went 10-0 in the non-conference against teams ranked 190-199, Florida would have played a more difficult schedule. And we would know next to nothing to differentiate the two teams.

 

(By the way, this is a sign of myopic, poorly designed scheduling by IU.)

[Exile on Waveland]

The Big Ten tourney is going to be nuts.

 

Wish it was in Indianapolis this year so I could go. There are eight teams that could win it without me being totally shocked. I'm expecting at least one big upset on Friday.

Any team winning Friday wouldn't be a big upset. I'm expecting at least one big upset Thursday between Purdue/NW/Nebraska/PSU.

 

Fair enough. I think most would consider, say, Iowa over Indiana a big upset, but in reality it probably isn't (at least not away from Bloomington).

[bukie]

Also strength of schedule gaming is why I prefer margin based ratings. More predictive of future success.

[Exile on Waveland]

Also strength of schedule gaming is why I prefer margin based ratings. More predictive of future success.

 

Absolutely. It's one of the big reasons the RPI is a farce. And it's stupid that IU is anti-gaming their strength of schedule, but they are. You're just not going to convince me that games against the top-25/50/100/whatever are not far, far more telling than games against sub-150/200/whatever teams (a point I agreed with earlier in the season when SSR said IU was overrated in Pomeroy because they were "Wisconsin-ing bad teams").

[pitchcs]

What is Wisconsin gonna do to NW tonight? Bo 10-1 last 11 against them and not that many really close.

 

Also like Ohio St in a battle of struggling teams. Should be a really low scoring game I'd think. Let's face it, every big ten team save for 4 so far has had a period of struggles. It's fun.

[SouthSideRyan]

BO OWNS CARMODY

[Exile on Waveland]

Let's face it, every big ten team save for 4 so far has had a period of struggles. It's fun.

 

Do you have some fundamental inability to process bad results for Michigan?

[SouthSideRyan]

The Big Ten tourney is going to be nuts.

 

Kind of anti-climactic with Indiana winning the rest of their games.

[Exile on Waveland]

The Big Ten tourney is going to be nuts.

 

Kind of anti-climactic with Indiana winning the rest of their games.

 

Ha. If IU does manage to win their next three games, it will make the game at Michigan even more difficult. If that happens, IU likely will have the Big Ten locked up -- Michigan State is very likely to lose another game with their schedule -- and that game would all of a sudden mean way, way more to Michigan than IU and IU would be coming off a senior night celebration. Probably would become IU's worst performance/loss of the season.

[Formerly Snayke]

And we all know Pomeroy is not perfect (Sagarin has Indiana No. 1, for what it's worth.) The strength of schedule is skewed because Crean likes to schedule multiple body bag games in the non-conference season (IU had the No. 293 Pomeroy non-conference schedule, Florida No. 48); which hurts the overall strength of schedule but tells us very little -- for teams at the top, beating a team ranked No. 150 or a team ranked No. 250 is an irrelevancy. Florida has exactly one win against a Pomeroy top-20 team (dominating Wisconsin -- way back on November 14). Indiana has six such wins, two on the road. IU is 7-1 against the Sagarin top-25; Florida 4-3. Florida also just lost a key player to injury (Will Yeguete).

 

Hopefully we get a chance to see, but I think you're seriously underrating Florida because they have the misfortune of playing in a football conference. If they were just winning by 10-15 points or so against the dregs, then maybe I'd see if differently, but they are throttling teams by 25 points and they do it with brutal efficiency.

 

Plus, if you don't see much of a difference between No. 150 and No. 250, then I don't see a difference between beating Purdue (91) or Auburn (152) or Northwestern (100) or South Carolina (207).

[Exile on Waveland]

And we all know Pomeroy is not perfect (Sagarin has Indiana No. 1, for what it's worth.) The strength of schedule is skewed because Crean likes to schedule multiple body bag games in the non-conference season (IU had the No. 293 Pomeroy non-conference schedule, Florida No. 48); which hurts the overall strength of schedule but tells us very little -- for teams at the top, beating a team ranked No. 150 or a team ranked No. 250 is an irrelevancy. Florida has exactly one win against a Pomeroy top-20 team (dominating Wisconsin -- way back on November 14). Indiana has six such wins, two on the road. IU is 7-1 against the Sagarin top-25; Florida 4-3. Florida also just lost a key player to injury (Will Yeguete).

 

Hopefully we get a chance to see, but I think you're seriously underrating Florida because they have the misfortune of playing in a football conference. If they were just winning by 10-15 points or so against the dregs, then maybe I'd see if differently, but they are throttling teams by 25 points and they do it with brutal efficiency.

 

Plus, if you don't see much of a difference between No. 150 and No. 250, then I don't see a difference between beating Purdue (91) or Auburn (152) or Northwestern (100) or South Carolina (207).

 

They're throttling teams . . . except when they're losing as many games in the seventh-best conference per Pomeroy as IU is losing in the best conference, by far, per Pomeroy (Florida's conference margin-of-victory is 21.6 points per game, while IU's is 13). Again, IU has a better record in the Big Ten (.8677) than Florida does in the SEC (.7439). The "Wisconsin-ing bad teams" is pretty obviously an issue with Pomeroy's system, and Florida is doing that. (And, again, I'd note Florida compiled these statistics with the services of Yeguete, who they no longer have.)

 

Second, there are diminishing returns on beating lesser teams -- at IU or Florida's level No. 200 and No. 250 are nearly indistinguishable, whereas No. 50 and No. 100 are less so (I watched IU beat, among others Nos. 188 and 314, and against a team the caliber of IU those teams are impossible to differentiate because they're both cannon fodder). Even so, sure, go ahead consider Purdue and Northwestern equal to Auburn and South Carolina; it doesn't matter. The SEC cannot answer for the five Big Ten teams, excluding IU, ranked ahead of the SEC's second highest ranked team.

 

None of this is to say Florida isn't very good; I'll probably pick them in the Final Four. None of this is to say Florida can't or won't beat IU; obviously they are, IU has lost to worse teams.

[pitchcs]

Let's face it, every big ten team save for 4 so far has had a period of struggles. It's fun.

 

Do you have some fundamental inability to process bad results for Michigan?

 

@IU

@Wisky

@MSU

 

Those aren't bad results to me, they are expected. Other teams have lost games they shouldn't have over a period.

 

Sorry that I think Michigan is better than IU

[UMFan83]

Let's face it, every big ten team save for 4 so far has had a period of struggles. It's fun.

 

Do you have some fundamental inability to process bad results for Michigan?

 

@IU

@Wisky

@MSU

 

Those aren't bad results to me, they are expected. Other teams have lost games they shouldn't have over a period.

 

Sorry that I think Michigan is better than IU

 

 

I don't want to sound down on Michigan because that's my team, but its hard for me to put Michigan ahead of Indiana because a) Indiana beat Michigan, b) Indiana just won in EL where Michigan got throttled by 23 exactly a week prior, c) Indiana has gone 5-2 against the other 6 Big Ten tourney probables. Michigan has gone 3-4 against those teams. I will note that Indiana has played 4 of those games at home and 3 on the road vs. 1 at home for Michigan and 6 on the road. That is a huge difference obviously. Indiana is also 5-0 against the top 20 RPI, and Michigan is 2-2

 

It's possible that when Michigan gets MSU and Indiana on their home court things will look different.

[rawaction]

Let's face it, every big ten team save for 4 so far has had a period of struggles. It's fun.

 

Do you have some fundamental inability to process bad results for Michigan?

 

@IU

@Wisky

@MSU

 

Those aren't bad results to me, they are expected. Other teams have lost games they shouldn't have over a period.

 

Sorry that I think Michigan is better than IU

 

I know I'm biased, but as a person who has called Michigan the best team in the country all year until the last couple weeks, I don't see how you can say Michigan is better than IU anymore. They got absolutely throttled at Michigan St, a place where IU just won. They also lost @ Ohio St. where IU won pretty handily. IU won head-to-head, granted in Bloomington, but IU also has better wins than Michigan on their resume. That 4 game gauntlet really sucked for them, and I'm sure they'll turn it around as they MAY win out (which constitutes as a prediction around here I guess and contradicts my other prediction that wasn't really a prediction)(.

[SouthSideRyan]

The Big Ten tourney is going to be nuts.

 

Kind of anti-climactic with Indiana winning the rest of their games.

 

Ha. If IU does manage to win their next three games, it will make the game at Michigan even more difficult. If that happens, IU likely will have the Big Ten locked up -- Michigan State is very likely to lose another game with their schedule -- and that game would all of a sudden mean way, way more to Michigan than IU and IU would be coming off a senior night celebration. Probably would become IU's worst performance/loss of the season.

 

Unless you lose by 15+ to Michigan, I can't put that past the Butler game.

[rawaction]

The Big Ten tourney is going to be nuts.

 

Kind of anti-climactic with Indiana winning the rest of their games.

 

Ha. If IU does manage to win their next three games, it will make the game at Michigan even more difficult. If that happens, IU likely will have the Big Ten locked up -- Michigan State is very likely to lose another game with their schedule -- and that game would all of a sudden mean way, way more to Michigan than IU and IU would be coming off a senior night celebration. Probably would become IU's worst performance/loss of the season.

 

Unless you lose by 15+ to Michigan, I can't put that past the Butler game.

 

Defensively maybe. Believe 48% by Butler was the highest FG%A by IU this year. But they scored 86 points (76 in regulation) and lost on a buzzer beater in OT. Wisconsin was probably the worst considering they were at home.

[Exile on Waveland]

Let's face it, every big ten team save for 4 so far has had a period of struggles. It's fun.

 

Do you have some fundamental inability to process bad results for Michigan?

 

@IU

@Wisky

@MSU

 

Those aren't bad results to me, they are expected. Other teams have lost games they shouldn't have over a period.

 

Sorry that I think Michigan is better than IU

 

Sure, in a vacuum those three losses in five games don't look bad. But we are allowed to look deeper. One of those losses Michigan was absolutely , humiliatingly throat-stomped and quit on the game (a place where IU just won). The two wins were an overtime home win against a team you just previously stated is struggling, and an eight-point home win against winless Penn State (!). For a team of Michigan's caliber, they are unquestionably struggling. There's no reason to suspect they won't snap out of this and return to top-level form -- and I think they will beat IU -- but a struggle this is.

 

You can think Michigan is better than IU all you want -- I see little to support that, but whatever -- but I can't imagine even Michigan fans don't consider themselves in a little slump. It is ignoring that, not your opinion about who is better, that makes me question your ability to process Michigan's results.

[Exile on Waveland]

The Big Ten tourney is going to be nuts.

 

Kind of anti-climactic with Indiana winning the rest of their games.

 

Ha. If IU does manage to win their next three games, it will make the game at Michigan even more difficult. If that happens, IU likely will have the Big Ten locked up -- Michigan State is very likely to lose another game with their schedule -- and that game would all of a sudden mean way, way more to Michigan than IU and IU would be coming off a senior night celebration. Probably would become IU's worst performance/loss of the season.

 

Unless you lose by 15+ to Michigan, I can't put that past the Butler game.

 

It's hard for me to argue with that. However, as an IU fan I've pretty come to terms with IU's inability to beat Butler in Indianapolis. So I am a bit numb to it. Sad, but true.