NCAA Mock Tourney Selection 2012

[bukie]

Speaking of seeding, where does FSU go if they beat UNC tomorrow? Those would be the best consecutive wins anyone had this year, not to mention would give them 2 wins each over UNC and Duke.

 

And their earlier win over UNC was by 33. I'm high on FSU

If they beat UNC tomorrow, could they get Temple's four seed? 4 wins over teams in the top 8 is really impressive.

Louisville is in the mix as well.

[Guest]

Long Beach State up 13 with 3:46 to play which would be good for the bubble teams.

[bukie]

My rankings:

 

Middle 16:

Memphis (C-USA)

St Louis

New Mexico (MWC)

Cincinnati

Kansas State

Purdue

Texas

Gonzaga

Virginia

California 

Alabama

Notre Dame

Iowa State

Connecticut

San Diego State

Southern Miss

 

 

Precarious 16:

Miami

NC State

Drexel

Seton Hall

BYU

South Florida

Tennessee

Northwestern

Colorado (Pac-12)

Arizona

St Bonaventure

Mississippi

Washington

Massachusetts

Mississippi State

Cal-Santa Barbara

[bukie]

I'm also now convinced SSR is just trying to actively sabotage Memphis by putting them last in every list.

[bukie]

Stage 5 results:

 

The completed S-Curve:

 

1. Kentucky (SEC)

2. Syracuse 

3. North Carolina (ACC)

4. Kansas 

5. Ohio State (Big Ten)

6. Michigan State

7. Missouri (Big 12)

8. Duke

9. Marquette

10. Baylor

11. Michigan

12. Wisconsin

13. Indiana

14. Georgetown

15. Wichita State

16. Temple

17. Louisville (Big East)

18. Florida State

19. UNLV

20. Creighton (MVC)

21. Florida

22. Vanderbilt

23. Murray State (OVC)

24. St Mary's (WCC)

25. Kansas State

26. Cincinnati

27. Memphis (C-USA)

28. Iowa State

29. Gonzaga

30. New Mexico (MWC)

31. Purdue

32. St Louis

33. Notre Dame

34. San Diego State

35. Alabama

36. Connecticut

37. Virginia

38. Texas

39. California 

40. Southern Miss

41. West Virginia

42. Harvard (Ivy)

43. Colorado State

44. Long Beach State (Big West)

45. Xavier (A-10)

46. Miami

47. VCU (CAA)

48. NC State

49. South Florida

50. BYU

51. Drexel

52. Colorado (Pac-12)

53. Belmont (Atlantic Sun)

54. Davidson (Southern)

55. South Dakota State (Summit)

56. New Mexico State (WAC)

57. Ohio (MAC)

58. Montana (Big Sky)

59. Lehigh (Patriot)

60. Loyola MD (MAAC)

61. Detroit (Horizon

62. Lamar (Southland)

63. UNC Asheville (Big South)

64. Long Island (NEC)

65. Western Kentucky (Sun Belt)

66. Vermont (America East)

67. Norfolk State (MEAC)

68. Mississippi Valley State (SWAC)

 

 

If the Bonnies win tomorrow, they'll be placed below Colorado in the S-Curve, and Drexel would be bumped out.

[bukie]

I'd be willing to argue that Memphis and New Mexico are criminally underseeded in our S-Curve (meaning that they should be about 10 spots higher). I'm also willing to listen to an argument that they shouldn't, but both have great numbers and won regular season titles for decent conferences, and won their tournament championships with ease. In terms of team quality, both are performing as top 20 teams (despite not doing so earlier in the year).

[bukie]

For tomorrow, we just have to put together a legitimate bracket and finalize the S-Curve. No submissions, just finish a bracket and compare to the real one.

[bukie]

As far as overseeded, I still think Temple is slightly overseeded, and UNLV is more overseeded.

[Guest]

I can see Memphis and New Mexico being too low as 7s, but I also have a hard time seeing a slam dunk case for them moving into the top 20 and a 5 seed.

[UMFan83]

I'd be willing to argue that Memphis and New Mexico are criminally underseeded in our S-Curve (meaning that they should be about 10 spots higher). I'm also willing to listen to an argument that they shouldn't, but both have great numbers and won regular season titles for decent conferences, and won their tournament championships with ease. In terms of team quality, both are performing as top 20 teams (despite not doing so earlier in the year).

 

I like Memphis and think they are playing at a high level right now (and finally playing how people expected when they were preseason #8), but their non-conference season left a lot to be desired. They played 5 top 50 (actually top 25) RPI teams in non-conference season and went 0-5. They did play Xavier in February and won so besides that single one of their top 50 wins this year is from conference play. CUSA was only 9th in conference RPI this year, only slightly ahead of the Pac 12, and very top heavy this year (Memphis, Marshall, Southern Miss, UCF). The rest of the teams range from below average to terrible, so it could be argued that they fluffed up their record by beating bad conference foes.

 

1-6 against the RPI top 25

4-6 against the top 50

SOS was 20 but they lost to more of those good teams than they won

 

I don't know if I made a good case or not. I think I had Memphis respectfully high in my rankings, but I can kind of see why someone would think they look more like a 7 seed than a 5 seed.

[Vanilla Ice]

I still think St. Louis is overseeded

[Guest]

They're the last 8 as it is. Would you drop them all the way to a 10?

[Vanilla Ice]

They're the last 8 as it is. Would you drop them all the way to a 10?

Yeah, I would. What's the difference between St. Louis and Xavier that is worth 13 places on the S-Curve?

[bukie]

They're the last 8 as it is. Would you drop them all the way to a 10?

Yeah, I would. What's the difference between St. Louis and Xavier that is worth 13 places on the S-Curve?

St. Louis didn't start a brawl that got half their team suspended for 6 games. They're basically even if you take that out, but since it was their own fault, I'm tempted to leave both as they are. I don't think St. Louis's seed is far out of line.

[bukie]

Also, lot of huge Xavier fans today, as they trail in the second half by 13.

[bukie]

Here's a bracket that assumes Xavier comes back:

 

http://i.imgur.com/jU0qR.png

[UMFan83]

Let me preface this by saying that I know the goal wasn't to match what the actual bracket is or Lunardi's projections, etc. But for fun here is our S-curve with Lunardi's ranking in parenthesis:

 

BOLD = Same S-curve ranking as Lunardi

GREEN = Within 2 spots of Lunardi's ranking

RED = 5+ spots off of Lunardi's ranking or didn't make Lunardi's bracket

 

1. Kentucky (1)

2. Syracuse  (2)

3. North Carolina (3)

4. Kansas (5)

5. Ohio State (4/7 depending on todays game)

6. Michigan State (4/7 depending on todays game)

7. Missouri (6)

8. Duke (8)

9. Marquette (10)

10. Baylor (9)

11. Michigan (11)

12. Wisconsin (14)

13. Indiana (15)

14. Georgetown (12)

15. Wichita State (17)

16. Temple (21)

17. Louisville (13)

18. Florida State (16)

19. UNLV (25)

20. Creighton (26)

21. Florida (19)

22. Vanderbilt (18)

23. Murray State (20)

24. St Mary's (28)

25. Kansas State (32)

26. Cincinnati (30)

27. Memphis (23)

28. Iowa State (33)

29. Gonzaga (29)

30. New Mexico (22)

31. Purdue (35)

32. St Louis (36)

33. Notre Dame (24)

34. San Diego State (27)

35. Alabama (34)

36. Connecticut (31)

37. Virginia (37)

38. Texas (42)

39. California (41)

40. Southern Miss (39)

41. West Virginia (38)

42. Harvard (40)

43. Colorado State (44)

44. Long Beach State (46)

45. Xavier (43)

46. Miami (72 - OUT)

47. VCU (45)

48. NC State (49)

49. South Florida (48)

50. BYU (47)

51. Drexel (OUT bec. of St. Bon win)

52. Colorado (52)

53. Belmont (55)

54. Davidson (57)

55. South Dakota State (54)

56. New Mexico State (56)

57. Ohio (53)

58. Montana (58)

59. Lehigh (60)

60. Loyola MD (59)

61. Detroit (61)

62. Lamar (64)

63. UNC Asheville (63)

64. Long Island (62)

65. Western Kentucky (68)

66. Vermont (66)

67. Norfolk State (67)

68. Mississippi Valley State (65)

[bukie]

Xavier! *shakes fist*

[Vanilla Ice]

Does Vanderbilt need to be moved up at all?

 

Does Louisville or Florida St. deserve to take that last four seed?

[Vanilla Ice]

Xavier! *shakes fist*

I'm actually relieved because I didn't think Drexel deserved to be in the bracket

[bukie]

A new bracket:

 

http://i.imgur.com/X4GoN.png

 

Any rematches? Other than that, I think it's legit.

[bukie]

Does Vanderbilt need to be moved up at all?

 

Does Louisville or Florida St. deserve to take that last four seed?

Gave the last 4 to Louisville. I'm slightly adjusting the S-Curve based on today's results:

 

 

1. Kentucky

2. Syracuse

3. North Carolina

4. Ohio State/MSU (Big Ten)

5. Kansas

6. Michigan State/OSU

7. Missouri (Big 12)

8. Duke

9. Marquette

10. Baylor

11. Michigan

12. Wisconsin

13. Indiana

14. Georgetown

15. Wichita State

16. Louisville (Big East)

17. Florida State (ACC)

18. Temple

19. UNLV

20. Creighton (MVC)

21. Florida

22. Vanderbilt (SEC)

23. Murray State (OVC)

24. St Mary's (WCC)

25. Kansas State

26. Cincinnati

27. Memphis (C-USA)

28. Iowa State

29. Gonzaga

30. New Mexico (MWC)

31. Purdue

32. St Louis

33. Notre Dame

34. San Diego State

35. Alabama

36. Connecticut

37. Virginia

38. Texas

39. California

40. Southern Miss

41. West Virginia

42. Harvard (Ivy)

43. Colorado State

44. Long Beach State (Big West)

45. Xavier

46. Miami

47. VCU (CAA)

48. NC State

49. South Florida

50. BYU

51. Colorado (Pac-12)

52. St. Bonaventure (A-10)

53. Belmont (Atlantic Sun)

54. Davidson (Southern)

55. South Dakota State (Summit)

56. New Mexico State (WAC)

57. Ohio (MAC)

58. Montana (Big Sky)

59. Lehigh (Patriot)

60. Loyola MD (MAAC)

61. Detroit (Horizon)

62. Lamar (Southland)

63. UNC Asheville (Big South)

64. Long Island (NEC)

65. Western Kentucky (Sun Belt)

66. Vermont (America East)

67. Norfolk State (MEAC)

68. Mississippi Valley State (SWAC)

 

[Andy]

I like the bracket as constructed. I don't see us being way off on anything unless the committee is weird like they were last year (and they probably are).

 

I disagree on the B1G champ ousting Kansas as a 1 seed, but being outvoted is being outvoted.

[Andy]

Also, when the hell did Iona get into some 'wise guy' brackets? I didn't see anything impressive in their resume.

[bukie]

Also, when the hell did Iona get into some 'wise guy' brackets? I didn't see anything impressive in their resume.

They have an RPI of 41. That's all I can see.