Castro and Theo to meet Friday

[sneakypower]

UZR has Vlad's arm being worth a full win in '02

 

that's unfathomable

[SouthSideRyan]

I'm guessing $2, $4, $8 and $12 for his arbitration years, which would put him at roughly $26.5 million for the five years.

 

Anyone have a different estimate of his arb years?

 

If he's good, his final year of arbitration will easily surpass $12m. Also, Theriot got $2.6m in his first year of arbitration, and that was by losing to the Cubs and taking their number. Castro will start at a higher level than you are assuming and make more every year.

 

It was his first arbitration year, but he wasn't a Super-2 like Castro. Unless I'm misunderstanding the arbitration rules, which is very possible, then his $2.6 million for his 4th season would be compared to the $4 million I'm projecting for Castro in his fourth season.

 

Jeter got 5M in for his 4th season 15 years before Castro would go to arbitration for his 4th season. And then 10M for his 5th season (again, obviously 15 years before Castro) You're way off.

[Hairyducked Idiot]

Okay, you are right, I am way underestimating the likely arbitration awards.

 

That changes the whole equation. Extend away.

[SouthSideRyan]

UZR has Vlad's arm being worth a full win in '02

 

that's unfathomable

 

I may be reading this wrong, but doesn't it have Soriano's arm worth a win and a half in '07?

[treebird]

UZR has Vlad's arm being worth a full win in '02

 

that's unfathomable

 

I may be reading this wrong, but doesn't it have Soriano's arm worth a win and a half in '07?

 

yikes

 

EDIT: yikes at uzr for saying that, not ryan for reading poorly

[seanimal]

plus, if vlad is an accurate comparison, then letting him walk after 29 makes some sense. that was his peak. he didn't fall off a cliff thereafter by any stretch of the imagination, but he never put up an 1.000 ops after he left montreal, and he most certainly started to slow down.

 

man, vlad was amazing in '02. he was definitely the mvp of the nl in the not-barry bonds division.

 

The goal is not to let guys go the minute they pass their prime. He was still quite productive and valuable after his peak.

 

i wasn't suggesting the former, and i've definitely acknowledged the latter.

[Productive Outs]

UZR has Vlad's arm being worth a full win in '02

 

that's unfathomable

 

I may be reading this wrong, but doesn't it have Soriano's arm worth a win and a half in '07?

 

yikes

 

EDIT: yikes at uzr for saying that, not ryan for reading poorly

 

I've always wondered if his 33.2 UZR in 2007 was a fangraphs error or something

[toonsterwu]

"hey starlin, you every played third base?"

"not really, why?"

"you remember meeting your buddy jose reyes at the all star game and how well you guys got along?"

"yeah"

"you want to play on the same side of the infield as him?"

"ok"

 

as a total side note, Starlin played some third base down in Arizona.

 

And I don't want Jose Reyes unless it is far, far cheaper than the rumored offers out there right now.

[seanimal]

UZR has Vlad's arm being worth a full win in '02

 

that's unfathomable

 

I may be reading this wrong, but doesn't it have Soriano's arm worth a win and a half in '07?

 

uzr is saber's leprechaun in the hood

 

Soriano:

(games/putouts/assists/arm)

2006: 158/326/22/4.9

2007: 134/273/19/14.4

 

lol go [expletive] yourself, uzr.

 

no seriously though, it's useless. fangraphs admits as much:

 

So, what are the lessons here? One, use as much data as possible before drawing any conclusions about a player’s likely defensive ability, talent or value. But, because true talent can change from year to year, try and weight recent data more heavily than past data. Two, consistency from year to year means almost nothing. Ignore it, combine the data (hopefully with some weighting), and go on your merry way. Three, a player’s UZR, be it one year, one month or 5 years, is not necessarily what happened on the field and is not necessarily that player’s true talent level over that period of time either. That is why we regress, regress, and regress! A player can have a plus UZR and have played terrible defense, because the data we are using is far from perfect. It is exactly the same with offense and pitching. Do not for a second think that that is a unique problem with defensive metrics. It is not! The more data we have, however, the less likely the gap between UZR and what actually happened, and the smaller the gap between UZR and that player’s true defensive talent. And once we regress the sample numbers appropriately, we essentially shrink those gaps to zero, although there is still uncertainty with regard to the regressed number itself. So, even after regression, there is no guarantee that our UZR number reflects what the player actually did or his true defensive talent over that time period. But, it is the best we can do (not knowing anything else about that player)!

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/the-fangraphs-uzr-primer/#16

 

so lemme get this straight:

 

uzr is not what happened on the field.

k.

uzr is not true talent level.

k.

but that's why we regress.

k.

but even after we regress, we still don't know that uzr is at all indicative of what the player actually did or his talent level when he may or may not have done it.

wait what?

but that's the best we can do so long as we don't know anything else about a player.

rofl holy [expletive] that's [expletive]

 

well, i DO know other stuff about the player, and based on that i know that alfonso soriano's right arm did not become close to 3x more valuable by participating in less games and actually converting less opportunities for assists.

 

so yeah, sori's arm was worth 1.5 wins in 2007. and this is a leprechaun:

 

http://3432-stoollala.voxcdn.com/wp-content/uploads/2010/10/leprechaun_sketch.jpg

[CubColtPacer]

Soriano's arm could have been more valuable even when converting less opportunities for assists. One would think that less people tried to take an extra base on him in 07 because of what he did in 06. Those baserunners have to be taken into account as part of the value of his arm. Another way of thinking of that is if he threw out a greater percentage of baserunners trying to take the extra base then he did in 06, his arm was even more efficient then it was before and more valuable. Of course that is incredibly hard to quantify, and taking a number which is that far to the extreme at face value is probably not the best course of action.

[Pushfrog98]

UZR has Vlad's arm being worth a full win in '02

 

that's unfathomable

 

I may be reading this wrong, but doesn't it have Soriano's arm worth a win and a half in '07?

 

so yeah, sori's arm was worth 1.5 wins in 2007. and this is a leprechaun:

 

http://3432-stoollala.voxcdn.com/wp-content/uploads/2010/10/leprechaun_sketch.jpg

HEISENBERG!

[treebird]

UZR has Vlad's arm being worth a full win in '02

 

that's unfathomable

 

I may be reading this wrong, but doesn't it have Soriano's arm worth a win and a half in '07?

 

uzr is saber's leprechaun in the hood

 

Soriano:

(games/putouts/assists/arm)

2006: 158/326/22/4.9

2007: 134/273/19/14.4

 

lol go [expletive] yourself, uzr.

 

no seriously though, it's useless. fangraphs admits as much:

 

So, what are the lessons here? One, use as much data as possible before drawing any conclusions about a player’s likely defensive ability, talent or value. But, because true talent can change from year to year, try and weight recent data more heavily than past data. Two, consistency from year to year means almost nothing. Ignore it, combine the data (hopefully with some weighting), and go on your merry way. Three, a player’s UZR, be it one year, one month or 5 years, is not necessarily what happened on the field and is not necessarily that player’s true talent level over that period of time either. That is why we regress, regress, and regress! A player can have a plus UZR and have played terrible defense, because the data we are using is far from perfect. It is exactly the same with offense and pitching. Do not for a second think that that is a unique problem with defensive metrics. It is not! The more data we have, however, the less likely the gap between UZR and what actually happened, and the smaller the gap between UZR and that player’s true defensive talent. And once we regress the sample numbers appropriately, we essentially shrink those gaps to zero, although there is still uncertainty with regard to the regressed number itself. So, even after regression, there is no guarantee that our UZR number reflects what the player actually did or his true defensive talent over that time period. But, it is the best we can do (not knowing anything else about that player)!

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/the-fangraphs-uzr-primer/#16

 

so lemme get this straight:

 

uzr is not what happened on the field.

k.

uzr is not true talent level.

k.

but that's why we regress.

k.

but even after we regress, we still don't know that uzr is at all indicative of what the player actually did or his talent level when he may or may not have done it.

wait what?

but that's the best we can do so long as we don't know anything else about a player.

rofl holy [expletive] that's [expletive]

 

well, i DO know other stuff about the player, and based on that i know that alfonso soriano's right arm did not become close to 3x more valuable by participating in less games and actually converting less opportunities for assists.

 

so yeah, sori's arm was worth 1.5 wins in 2007. and this is a leprechaun:

 

http://3432-stoollala.voxcdn.com/wp-content/uploads/2010/10/leprechaun_sketch.jpg

 

great post

[minnesotacubsfan]

holy [expletive] a leprechaun

 

 

and glad you're back, e2s

[Guest]

I've been saying UZR is no good for at least three years, so I'm ahead of the curve on that one. It's unreliable year to year and does not account for all variables. It's not valid. People should stop using it as an argument anchor (but they won't).

 

*pats self on back

[SouthSideRyan]

I've been saying UZR is no good for at least three years, so I'm ahead of the curve on that one. It's unreliable year to year and does not account for all variables. It's not valid. People should stop using it as an argument anchor (but they won't).

 

*pats self on back

 

5 and a half years here.

[SABR Gamer]

I've been saying UZR is no good for at least three years, so I'm ahead of the curve on that one. It's unreliable year to year and does not account for all variables. It's not valid. People should stop using it as an argument anchor (but they won't).

 

*pats self on back

 

5 and a half years here.

 

 

Then what is a reliable way to evaluate defense? Scouting?

[UK1679666180]

I've been saying UZR is no good for at least three years, so I'm ahead of the curve on that one. It's unreliable year to year and does not account for all variables. It's not valid. People should stop using it as an argument anchor (but they won't).

 

*pats self on back

 

5 and a half years here.

 

 

Then what is a reliable way to evaluate defense? Scouting?

 

Scouting via play by play data.

[Sammy Sofa]

I've been saying UZR is no good for at least three years, so I'm ahead of the curve on that one. It's unreliable year to year and does not account for all variables. It's not valid. People should stop using it as an argument anchor (but they won't).

 

*pats self on back

 

5 and a half years here.

 

 

Then what is a reliable way to evaluate defense? Scouting?

 

Number of successfully executed plays divided by the number of bird-related interferences times skin pigment = profit

[sneakypower]

Then what is a reliable way to evaluate defense? Scouting?

 

Scouting via play by play data.

ok then, how many runs was Soriano's arm worth in '07?

[UK1679666180]

Then what is a reliable way to evaluate defense? Scouting?

 

Scouting via play by play data.

ok then, how many runs was Soriano's arm worth in '07?

 

God damn.

 

Let me go through all of '07 and I'll get back to you.

[SouthSideRyan]

Thanks.

[seanimal]

Soriano's arm could have been more valuable even when converting less opportunities for assists.

 

sure, the possibility exists, but given what we do know, particularly that his rate of assists per innings played is basically identical, it is unlikely.

 

One would think that less people tried to take an extra base on him in 07 because of what he did in 06. Those baserunners have to be taken into account as part of the value of his arm.

 

you give baseball players, and the wavin' wendell's of the world too much credit. not only is that inference unlikely given the data and absence of any observed accounts supporting it, it's impossible to quantify and therefore wouldn't factor into ARM anyway. you know, if it was actually trying to account for such things.

 

Another way of thinking of that is if he threw out a greater percentage of baserunners trying to take the extra base then he did in 06, his arm was even more efficient then it was before and more valuable.

 

not necessarily. we can easily conceive of a situation where an outfielder could become more efficient at creating throwing outs yet still not become more valuable because of it. this is because not all throwing outs are created equal. throwing out ryan theriot at second base with two outs is not the same as throwing out carl crawford at home with no outs. run probability matters.

 

there's also a difference between intelligent, skilled baserunners choosing to challenge the arm of an outfielder who has previously been in the infield his entire professional career, and some grindy, low-efficiency baserunner who tries to squeeze an extra base because he "plays the game the right way." skill level matters.

 

but not to ARM...

 

As well, outfield arm run values are also computed separately from “regular” UZR. They are based on the speed and location of batted balls to the outfield and how often base runners advance extra bases (advances), don’t advance the extra base (holds), or get thrown out trying to advance (kills). Park factors are used in arm ratings. For example, because the left fielder plays so shallow in Fenway and balls tend to quickly ricochet off the Green Monster, it is difficult to advance an extra base on a hit to LF in Boston. In Colorado, because the OF is so expansive, base runners advance more easily than in an average park. The UZR “arm engine” adjusts for those things.

 

aside from failing to account for the situational run probability as well as the skill level of the baserunner, it also fails to account for the most important piece of the puzzle: the fielder! particularly, where they are standing at the time the ball is hit. this can be as intricate as using the pitch f/x system to also pay attention to the activity of the fielders (which, as far as i know, it doesn't, and is probably the biggest flaw to the system), but even accounting for the defensive field the player is in would be a great start. preventing a runner from advancing to third is easier, all things being equal, when you're on the left side of the field.

 

oh but hey it accounts for park factors and the amount of blue cotton candy sold that day so, there's that.

[Hairyducked Idiot]

http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/s/soriaal01-field.shtml

 

He did hold runners at a much better rate in 2007, and his assists came at a higher rate and in much more traditonal "kill" situations. I have no idea how if that's the reason for the UZR discrepancy, I just think those stats are cool.

[seanimal]

I've been saying UZR is no good for at least three years, so I'm ahead of the curve on that one. It's unreliable year to year and does not account for all variables. It's not valid. People should stop using it as an argument anchor (but they won't).

 

*pats self on back

 

5 and a half years here.

 

 

Then what is a reliable way to evaluate defense? Scouting?

 

Scouting via play by play data.

 

ok so my question is does one need a hawaiian shirt and binoculars to scout the play by play data?

 

jk i just hate baseball but no seriously man, do you really believe that the existing information captured by play-by-play data tells us as much as we need to know about a defensive player's abilities and execution on the field?

[seanimal]

aside from failing to account for the situational run probability as well as the skill level of the baserunner, it also fails to account for the most important piece of the puzzle: the fielder! particularly, where they are standing at the time the ball is hit. this can be as intricate as using the pitch f/x system to also pay attention to the activity of the fielders (which, as far as i know, it doesn't, and is probably the biggest flaw to the system), but even accounting for the defensive field the player is in would be a great start. preventing a runner from advancing to third is easier, all things being equal, when you're on the left side of the field.

 

after thinking about this a little bit i actually think that uzr does account for position, at least it should, since it separates of'ers by position. i'm not sure if they're isolating position for context or relying solely on park factors here, but whatever it is IT'S NOT WORKING GUYS.