Ramirez declines option

[Guest]

Is Sullivan mis-speaking or is he trying to say the Cubs aren't going to make Aramis an offer at all?

 

The first move by the new regime on Sunday was declining to offer Aramis Ramirez a multiyear deal, knowing he would decline his $16 million option and file for free agency. Monday, they declined the $3 million option of pitcher Jeff Samardzija.

 

 

...because, really, the "move" was exercising their half of the option, knowing he would decline his half.

 

So, did he screw up, or is he reporting that we're not even going to try to keep him around?

 

http://www.chicagotribune.com/sports/baseball/cubs/ct-spt-1101-cubs-chicago--20111101,0,6456912.story

[USSoccer]

If we make no attempt to keep him I'll be so, so pissed off.

[Guest]

If we make no attempt to keep him I'll be so, so pissed off.

Depends. If mgmt had a conversation with him and he said he won't accept anything less than a four year deal, I'd hope they patted him on the back, wished him luck and moved on.

[Guest]

If we make no attempt to keep him I'll be so, so pissed off.

Depends. If mgmt had a conversation with him and he said he won't accept anything less than a four year deal, I'd hope they patted him on the back, wished him luck and moved on.

 

Yea. And I'm done with questioning every front office move, for now. I'm going to let Theo and his band of boy geniuses do their jobs.

 

I'll definitely be more than a little annoyed if we end up taking the throwaway approach to next year, but I don't think we will.

[dew1679666265]

Is Sullivan mis-speaking or is he trying to say the Cubs aren't going to make Aramis an offer at all?

 

The first move by the new regime on Sunday was declining to offer Aramis Ramirez a multiyear deal, knowing he would decline his $16 million option and file for free agency. Monday, they declined the $3 million option of pitcher Jeff Samardzija.

 

 

...because, really, the "move" was exercising their half of the option, knowing he would decline his half.

 

So, did he screw up, or is he reporting that we're not even going to try to keep him around?

 

http://www.chicagotribune.com/sports/baseball/cubs/ct-spt-1101-cubs-chicago--20111101,0,6456912.story

 

From that quote, it sounds like Sullivan is saying the Cubs didn't offer him a multiyear deal prior to Aramis declining his option. It doesn't seem to address whether they'll offer him anything moving forward, though.

[Hairyducked Idiot]

We have the ability to replicate a ton of Ramirez's value with cheap, in-house options.

 

I wouldn't be furious if we offered him a two or three year deal at market value, but I'd be a little confused. We can cobble together a 3b platoon that should be pretty credible for almost nothing. We can't say the same about 1b or several rotation spots, so that's where the money should be spent.

[jersey cubs fan]

We have the ability to replicate a ton of Ramirez's value with cheap, in-house options.

 

Probably not. I really think people are grossly overrating what those guys can do.

[Hairyducked Idiot]

We have the ability to replicate a ton of Ramirez's value with cheap, in-house options.

 

Probably not. I really think people are grossly overrating what those guys can do.

 

I think people are overrating what Ramirez can do.

[Guest]

We have the ability to replicate a ton of Ramirez's value with cheap, in-house options.

 

Probably not. I really think people are grossly overrating what those guys can do.

 

I think people are overrating what Ramirez can do.

 

 

This is the only way the argument can be made.

 

That Ramirez's defense was hurting his value so much that he's not as valuable as some of us think.

[Little Slide Rooter]

We have the ability to replicate a ton of Ramirez's value with cheap, in-house options.

 

Probably not. I really think people are grossly overrating what those guys can do.

 

I think Kyles the only one rating them that highly. Maybe Javier Baez well down the road, but who knows. The in house options are DeWitt, Flaherty, LeMahieu, and Baker. Maybe his 2010 numbers. Vitters will need at least another year, and I really don't see him replicating Ramirezez production. At this point I'm hoping for an .800 OPS at best from him.

 

I'm not saying that non of the in house guys are acceptable options, but if you think they'll come close to Aramis' production, you're mad.

 

This is the only way the argument can be made.

 

That Ramirez's defense was hurting his value so much that he's not as valuable as some of us think.

 

For this arguement, you have to assume that the other guys will be enough of a defensive upgrade to make up for the offense. We know that DeWitts defense isn't much better than Aramis. I don't know too much about LeMa or Flaherty on defense, and Bakers offense is surely not enough.

Edited November 1, 2011 by Little Slide Rooter

[Hairyducked Idiot]

This is the only way the argument can be made.

 

That Ramirez's defense was hurting his value so much that he's not as valuable as some of us think.

 

Regress his offense back to the mean a little bit, too. I think the most likely 2012 projection for his offense is closer to 2011 than 2010, but still a tick back from his 2011.

 

Something like his ZIPS projection of .280 .340 .474. Add in how fast his defense has declined in recent years, and I think you're looking at $15 million for a 3 WAR player. That's not terrible value, but I'd rather get 1-2 WAR out a platoon for almost nothing and have $15 million to spend elsewhere.

[Little Slide Rooter]

When it comes to defense, another thing that we need to consider is that the past 8 years between Lee and Pena we've had some of the best 1B defense out there and were often able to prevent Ramirez and Castros errant throws from ending up in another zip code. If we were to sign Fielder, we lose that and could end up with some very ugly infield defense.

[Hairyducked Idiot]

http://espn.go.com/chicago/mlb/story/_/id/7172437/agent-says-chicago-cubs-picked-option-aramis-ramirez-opt-out

 

“We are very sorry that this era is coming to the end for Aramis and the Cubs,” Kinzer said. “He loves Chicago and the fans. They’ve been great to him, but at this point it’s better that we check out the market and address free agency.

 

“(The percentage of Ramirez returning to the Cubs is) probably not good. At this point, Aramis is looking for a multiyear deal and looking forward to being a free agent for the first time in his career. It’s too difficult for me to say whether the Cubs would be interested in giving him a long-term contract.”

 

Already posted?

[inari]

http://espn.go.com/chicago/mlb/story/_/id/7172437/agent-says-chicago-cubs-picked-option-aramis-ramirez-opt-out

 

“We are very sorry that this era is coming to the end for Aramis and the Cubs,” Kinzer said. “He loves Chicago and the fans. They’ve been great to him, but at this point it’s better that we check out the market and address free agency.

 

“(The percentage of Ramirez returning to the Cubs is) probably not good. At this point, Aramis is looking for a multiyear deal and looking forward to being a free agent for the first time in his career. It’s too difficult for me to say whether the Cubs would be interested in giving him a long-term contract.”

 

Already posted?

 

Well, dang. I'd take that as near confirmation.

 

Though, wasn't Aramis a free agent briefly after 2006?

[jersey cubs fan]

We have the ability to replicate a ton of Ramirez's value with cheap, in-house options.

 

Probably not. I really think people are grossly overrating what those guys can do.

 

I think people are overrating what Ramirez can do.

 

Obviously that is not true because we have actually seen what he can do. Sure he could fail to do what he can do, but he can clearly do it.

[Hairyducked Idiot]

I think people are overrating what Ramirez can do.

 

Obviously that is not true because we have actually seen what he can do. Sure he could fail to do what he can do, but he can clearly do it.

 

Okay.

 

I think people are overrating what is reasonable to project from Ramirez in 2012 and beyond.

[KingCubsFan]

We have the ability to replicate a ton of Ramirez's value with cheap, in-house options.

 

Probably not. I really think people are grossly overrating what those guys can do.

Agreed. LeMahieu and Flaherty aren't exactly top prospects, and people are probably putting a little too much stock in WAR's defensive values when trying to equate their production with Aramis.

[davell]

I was hoping we'd keep him. But I read something that said he may be able to get 4 or 5 years somewhere. If that's the case, I'm glad we're not keeping him. Thanks for everything Rammy, you've been a hell of a Cub.

[Hairyducked Idiot]

We have the ability to replicate a ton of Ramirez's value with cheap, in-house options.

 

Probably not. I really think people are grossly overrating what those guys can do.

Agreed. LeMahieu and Flaherty aren't exactly top prospects, and people are probably putting a little too much stock in WAR's defensive values when trying to equate their production with Aramis.

 

I'm not strictly equating. The platoon will be a step back. But not enough of a step back to keep the cost difference from being justified.

 

Ramirez has averaged 3.0 fWAR and 2.3 bWAR the last four seasons. I think a 3.0 fWAR and a 2.5 bWAR is a very reasonable, possibly even generous projection for his age 34 season.

 

Jeff Baker is basically a Ramirez clone vs. lefties and will make something like $1.5 million this year. Bringing in an internal option could make the combined price of the platoon to be less than $2 million. I think it's very reasonable to project the platoon at something like 1.5 fWAR and 1.0 bWAR, with some upside for better.

 

So $15 million for Ramirez would mean paying $13 million for 1.5 fWAR. That's just not good value compared to the other places we can spend the money. Then throw in the value of the pick we get if we let him sign elsewhere.

[Little Slide Rooter]

http://espn.go.com/chicago/mlb/story/_/id/7172437/agent-says-chicago-cubs-picked-option-aramis-ramirez-opt-out

 

“We are very sorry that this era is coming to the end for Aramis and the Cubs,” Kinzer said. “He loves Chicago and the fans. They’ve been great to him, but at this point it’s better that we check out the market and address free agency.

 

“(The percentage of Ramirez returning to the Cubs is) probably not good. At this point, Aramis is looking for a multiyear deal and looking forward to being a free agent for the first time in his career. It’s too difficult for me to say whether the Cubs would be interested in giving him a long-term contract.”

 

Already posted?

 

Well, dang. I'd take that as near confirmation.

 

Though, wasn't Aramis a free agent briefly after 2006?

 

Yup, and he was almost surely going to The Phillies or Angels, as was Soriano.

 

Could just be the agent tryring to gain leverage, but in this case, I think we've seen the last of him.

[davell]

Wasn't the story something like the Angels offered him a 6 year 100 million dollar deal at midnight and he woke up the next morning and told Kinzer to get it done with Hendry. I think they may have even negotiated during church or something.

[jersey cubs fan]

Jeff Baker is basically a Ramirez clone vs. lefties and will make something like $1.5 million this year.

 

Jeff Baker already plays for the Cubs and racks up over 200 PA a year. In any sort of platoon at third that is all he would play anyway. So you aren't adding anything if he's replacing Ramirez. You are simply using Baker at a different position, then you have to go out and replace Jeff Baker since Jeff Baker won't be doing what Jeff Baker does anymore, he'll be RH Ramirez.

[Hairyducked Idiot]

Jeff Baker is basically a Ramirez clone vs. lefties and will make something like $1.5 million this year.

 

Jeff Baker already plays for the Cubs and racks up over 200 PA a year. In any sort of platoon at third that is all he would play anyway. So you aren't adding anything if he's replacing Ramirez. You are simply using Baker at a different position, then you have to go out and replace Jeff Baker since Jeff Baker won't be doing what Jeff Baker does anymore, he'll be RH Ramirez.

 

He would be getting about 1/3rd of the starts at 3b and still be available on the bench the rest of the days. I'd expect him to get maybe 50 more PAs in this scenario than he did in 2011.

 

Jeff Baker was used so inefficiently last year that I don't think it'd be hard to replace his value to the team. He's about as pure of a lefty-masher as they come, and he somehow managed to get 40% of his PAs coming against right-handed pitching. Replacing 2011 Jeff Baker won't be hard because 2011 Jeff Baker was a -0.1 fWAR player.

 

So your choice for 2012 is:

 

3.0 fWAR at 3b

Jeff Baker on the bench

 

or

 

1.5ish fWAR at 3b

The other half of the platoon on the bench each day

$13 million available to upgrade other parts of the roster

 

The choice is pretty clear, imo.

Edited November 1, 2011 by Hairyducked Idiot

[17 Seconds]

i hope he gets a really nice deal somewhere. he took less to stay with the cubs, and i don't think he gets enough credit for that. instead, most cubs fans criticize him for not running out ground balls and garbage like that.

[17 Seconds]

ramirez's final line with the cubs (assuming he's gone)-

 

.294/.356/.531 (8 and a half seasons)