Constructing the 2012 Cubs

[davearm2]

This isn't that difficult. We don't need to improve on the '11 projections for the BOR in order to be better. We know what they actually did, that's what we're improving on.

The point is, the same players would be an improvement, so long as they didn't underperform again.

 

On paper, they haven't really gotten better.

You mean they haven't really gotten better than the projections...which were better than the actual performance.

 

So they've improved from the actual performance of last year.

Well I guess so. But they didn't have to make any moves at all to have that kind of "improvement".

 

By that thinking, they have improved in LF too. Soriano shouldn't be as bad as he was last year, with a .260ish BABIP.

[seanimal]

Well I guess so. But they didn't have to make any moves at all to have that kind of "improvement".

 

wtf are you talking about? of course they did

[Sammy Sofa]

Is this dave's first one of these in 2012?

[davearm2]

Well I guess so. But they didn't have to make any moves at all to have that kind of "improvement".

 

wtf are you talking about? of course they did

wtf we are talking about is the difference between projected performance and actual performance.

 

The current crew (Wood, Maholm and Volstad) project now about the same as the last crew (Zambrano Cashner Wells) projected last spring.

 

Pointing out that the last crew performed worse than projected isn't particularly revealing.

[davell]

We've downgraded 1B for 2012 most likely, but gotten cheaper. With a bigtime possibility for the future being acquired. We downgraded 3B as well, but for a much younger, upside type with better defense. Got much cheaper here as well. Added a defensive minded OFer with solid OBP, kind of a wash from where we started 2011, with Fukudome, but again, much cheaper. Rid ourselves of a headcase that was certainly in his final season here, for a young, fairly high upside guy who's peripherals say should be better than he's been. Traded the best setup guy in baseball, in the last year of his deal, for a solid 3/4 starter with 5 years of control, a 4th OFer type AND our likely future 2B as well. Added another mid rotation lefty SP for well below market value. Lost a couple of guys in Rule 5 that didn't have a spot, but added 2 1st round comp picks for the draft. Saved 25 mill in the process. Still looking to improve the system, probably will have a few more moves before the season starts. I'm sorry, but for the plan they've put in place, this is damn near a perfect offseason, as far as I'm concerned.

[davearm2]

We've downgraded 1B for 2012 most likely, but gotten cheaper. With a bigtime possibility for the future being acquired. We downgraded 3B as well, but for a much younger, upside type with better defense. Got much cheaper here as well. Added a defensive minded OFer with solid OBP, kind of a wash from where we started 2011, with Fukudome, but again, much cheaper. Rid ourselves of a headcase that was certainly in his final season here, for a young, fairly high upside guy who's peripherals say should be better than he's been. Traded the best setup guy in baseball, in the last year of his deal, for a solid 3/4 starter with 5 years of control, a 4th OFer type AND our likely future 2B as well. Added another mid rotation lefty SP for well below market value. Lost a couple of guys in Rule 5 that didn't have a spot, but added 2 1st round comp picks for the draft. Saved 25 mill in the process. Still looking to improve the system, probably will have a few more moves before the season starts. I'm sorry, but for the plan they've put in place, this is damn near a perfect offseason, as far as I'm concerned.

I totally agree. I love the direction. Absolutely 100%. Adding Cespedes and/or Soler, and dealing Garza for the kind of package we all expect would nail perfection for me. But so far, it's been phenomenal.

[davell]

Total perfection for me would be to sign Cespedes and Soler(he's more important to me though), one of Concepcion or Luis, and a couple of 16-18 year old IFA's like Manny Gonzalez, Helsin Martinez, or Hyuk Sung Han. Trade Garza and Byrd before season starts and Soto, Demp, and Marmol by deadline.

[seanimal]

Well I guess so. But they didn't have to make any moves at all to have that kind of "improvement".

 

wtf are you talking about? of course they did

wtf we are talking about is the difference between projected performance and actual performance.

 

The current crew (Wood, Maholm and Volstad) project now about the same as the last crew (Zambrano Cashner Wells) projected last spring.

 

Pointing out that the last crew performed worse than projected isn't particularly revealing.

 

no, what you're said is that the team didn't have to make any changes in the rotation to improve upon their performance from last year. you're wrong.

[Backtobanks]

We've downgraded 1B for 2012 most likely, but gotten cheaper. With a bigtime possibility for the future being acquired. We downgraded 3B as well, but for a much younger, upside type with better defense. Got much cheaper here as well. Added a defensive minded OFer with solid OBP, kind of a wash from where we started 2011, with Fukudome, but again, much cheaper. Rid ourselves of a headcase that was certainly in his final season here, for a young, fairly high upside guy who's peripherals say should be better than he's been. Traded the best setup guy in baseball, in the last year of his deal, for a solid 3/4 starter with 5 years of control, a 4th OFer type AND our likely future 2B as well. Added another mid rotation lefty SP for well below market value. Lost a couple of guys in Rule 5 that didn't have a spot, but added 2 1st round comp picks for the draft. Saved 25 mill in the process. Still looking to improve the system, probably will have a few more moves before the season starts. I'm sorry, but for the plan they've put in place, this is damn near a perfect offseason, as far as I'm concerned.

 

There's never been any disagreement that the 2012 Cubs will be younger, cheaper, and have better potential than last year's team. The discussion was whether the 2012 team will win more games than last year.

[Hairyducked Idiot]

There's never been any disagreement that the 2012 Cubs will be younger, cheaper, and have better potential than last year's team. The discussion was whether the 2012 team will win more games than last year.

 

Which you then bizarrely tried to turn into whether the 2012 team will win more games than the 2011 team was projected to win. Because using how many games they actually won would be "hindsight," and that would be bad for some reason.

[Hairyducked Idiot]

By that thinking, they have improved in LF too. Soriano shouldn't be as bad as he was last year, with a .260ish BABIP.

 

Well, yes. I expect the Cubs outfield to be better than last year's, and that includes a small BABIP bounceback from Soriano (or better yet, just using Sappelt instead).

 

But the emphasis is on "small" bounceback. He's got a career .302 BABIP, and that's including a lot of his earlier years before his legs started to go. At this point, something like .290 is more likely. If we add the difference between that and his .266 last year to his slash line, it'd be .270/315/495.

 

That'd definitely be an improvement, but age is going to give some of that back. But for 2012, he's going to be a year older and his bat a year slower. He's at the age where there is severe risk of collapse. And his defense and baserunning keep getting a little worse each year.

 

Last year he gave the Cubs 1.3 WAR in 137 games. I'd expect something between 1.5 and 2.0 this year, without much upside beyond that.

[Guest]

There's never been any disagreement that the 2012 Cubs will be younger, cheaper, and have better potential than last year's team. The discussion was whether the 2012 team will win more games than last year.

 

Which you then bizarrely tried to turn into whether the 2012 team will win more games than the 2011 team was projected to win. Because using how many games they actually won would be "hindsight," and that would be bad for some reason.

 

It's because veiled in all of this is the fact that he's trying to make it a Hendry vs. Theo thing and defend Hendry on the basis that the team should have performed better but just underperformed.

[Hairyducked Idiot]

It's because veiled in all of this is the fact that he's trying to make it a Hendry vs. Theo thing and defend Hendry on the basis that the team should have performed better but just underperformed.

 

Which is true, a little bit.

 

Hendry probably shouldn't be blamed for building an aging, very expensive 71-win team with a bottom tier farm system.

 

If some breaks had gone their way last year, they probably would have had an aging, very expensive 81-win team with a bottom tier farm system.

[sneakypower]

last year our non-Garza starters did this:

 

131 GS

732.6 IP

5.26 ERA

 

only one qualified starter (Brad Penny, 5.30 ERA) in all of baseball managed a worse ERA than that

edit: only four qualified starters worked shorter starts on average, too

 

so...yeah, we're going to improve upon that, without a shadow of a doubt

Edited January 24, 2012 by sneakypower

[Guest]

last year our non-Garza starters did this:

 

131 GS

732.6 IP

5.26 ERA

 

only one qualified starter (Brad Penny, 5.30 ERA) in all of baseball managed a worse ERA than that

 

so...yeah, we're going to improve upon that, without a shadow of a doubt

 

definitely...especially when both the actual pitchers themselves will be better and the defense will be substantially better.

 

the question is how much the offense is going to drop off after it was around league average last year.

[Backtobanks]

There's never been any disagreement that the 2012 Cubs will be younger, cheaper, and have better potential than last year's team. The discussion was whether the 2012 team will win more games than last year.

 

Which you then bizarrely tried to turn into whether the 2012 team will win more games than the 2011 team was projected to win. Because using how many games they actually won would be "hindsight," and that would be bad for some reason.

 

It's because veiled in all of this is the fact that he's trying to make it a Hendry vs. Theo thing and defend Hendry on the basis that the team should have performed better but just underperformed.

 

I'm just trying to give a balanced view. There are many posters on NSBB who would never give credit to Hendry for anything good that happened while he was GM. There are also many posters on NSBB who will never admit that Theo could actually make a bad move. I'm sure that the latter group will say that we shouldn't count wins and losses from 2012 & 2013 because he has to rebuild the whole system. The situations are completely different because Hendry was told to spend money to build a winning team, minor league system be damned. Theo's plan is the complete opposite.

[jersey cubs fan]

I'm just trying to give a balanced view. There are many posters on NSBB who would never give credit to Hendry for anything good that happened while he was GM. There are also many posters on NSBB who will never admit that Theo could actually make a bad move.

 

You're so valiant.

[KingCubsFan]

There's never been any disagreement that the 2012 Cubs will be younger, cheaper, and have better potential than last year's team. The discussion was whether the 2012 team will win more games than last year.

 

Which you then bizarrely tried to turn into whether the 2012 team will win more games than the 2011 team was projected to win. Because using how many games they actually won would be "hindsight," and that would be bad for some reason.

 

It's because veiled in all of this is the fact that he's trying to make it a Hendry vs. Theo thing and defend Hendry on the basis that the team should have performed better but just underperformed.

 

I'm just trying to give a balanced view. There are many posters on NSBB who would never give credit to Hendry for anything good that happened while he was GM. There are also many posters on NSBB who will never admit that Theo could actually make a bad move. I'm sure that the latter group will say that we shouldn't count wins and losses from 2012 & 2013 because he has to rebuild the whole system. The situations are completely different because Hendry was told to spend money to build a winning team, minor league system be damned. Theo's plan is the complete opposite.

Link? Hendry was around for nine full seasons, and 10 seasons total if you count 2002. During that time, the only instance where the farm system was highly regarded was in the beginning due to his work as head of the minor league system. There was more than enough money to devote to the major league and minor league teams. The lack of impact talent wasn't due to signings like Soriano. It was due to signing guys like Aaron Miles and Neifi Perez, and hiring people like John Stocksill to run the drafts.

[Hairyducked Idiot]

I'm just trying to give a balanced view. There are many posters on NSBB who would never give credit to Hendry for anything good that happened while he was GM. There are also many posters on NSBB who will never admit that Theo could actually make a bad move. I'm sure that the latter group will say that we shouldn't count wins and losses from 2012 & 2013 because he has to rebuild the whole system. The situations are completely different because Hendry was told to spend money to build a winning team, minor league system be damned. Theo's plan is the complete opposite.

 

So Hendry is told to win in the short-term at all costs, and he produces a 71-win team.

 

Epstein is told to build long-term and for the future, and while punting on 2012 he still looks like he'll have an team that is Hendry's equal in the short-term.

 

And that's supposed to reflect well on Hendry and poorly on Epstein?

[davearm2]

Well I guess so. But they didn't have to make any moves at all to have that kind of "improvement".

 

wtf are you talking about? of course they did

wtf we are talking about is the difference between projected performance and actual performance.

 

The current crew (Wood, Maholm and Volstad) project now about the same as the last crew (Zambrano Cashner Wells) projected last spring.

 

Pointing out that the last crew performed worse than projected isn't particularly revealing.

 

no, what you're said is that the team didn't have to make any changes in the rotation to improve upon their performance from last year. you're wrong.

I'm wrong if you rather curiously believe players will perform exactly the same in 2012 as they did in 2011.

 

You may believe that; I do not.

[KingCubsFan]

last year our non-Garza starters did this:

 

131 GS

732.6 IP

5.26 ERA

 

only one qualified starter (Brad Penny, 5.30 ERA) in all of baseball managed a worse ERA than that

 

so...yeah, we're going to improve upon that, without a shadow of a doubt

 

definitely...especially when both the actual pitchers themselves will be better and the defense will be substantially better.

 

the question is how much the offense is going to drop off after it was around league average last year.

You have to hope improvement from Soto and Castro make up for the loss of offense at 3B. DeJesus should be an improvement in RF. And LaHair/Rizzo have to put up around a .800 OPS at 1B. You also have to account for likely drops at LF and 2B. All in all, not looking too great.

[Guest]

last year our non-Garza starters did this:

 

131 GS

732.6 IP

5.26 ERA

 

only one qualified starter (Brad Penny, 5.30 ERA) in all of baseball managed a worse ERA than that

 

so...yeah, we're going to improve upon that, without a shadow of a doubt

 

definitely...especially when both the actual pitchers themselves will be better and the defense will be substantially better.

 

the question is how much the offense is going to drop off after it was around league average last year.

You have to hope improvement from Soto and Castro make up for the loss of offense at 3B. DeJesus should be an improvement in RF. And LaHair/Rizzo have to put up around a .800 OPS at 1B. You also have to account for likely drops at LF and 2B. All in all, not looking too great.

 

likely drop in LF?

 

what am i missing?

 

and while i do think barney overachieved with the bat somewhat, there's not a lot of room for his offensive production to fall there

[KingCubsFan]

last year our non-Garza starters did this:

 

131 GS

732.6 IP

5.26 ERA

 

only one qualified starter (Brad Penny, 5.30 ERA) in all of baseball managed a worse ERA than that

 

so...yeah, we're going to improve upon that, without a shadow of a doubt

 

definitely...especially when both the actual pitchers themselves will be better and the defense will be substantially better.

 

the question is how much the offense is going to drop off after it was around league average last year.

You have to hope improvement from Soto and Castro make up for the loss of offense at 3B. DeJesus should be an improvement in RF. And LaHair/Rizzo have to put up around a .800 OPS at 1B. You also have to account for likely drops at LF and 2B. All in all, not looking too great.

 

likely drop in LF?

 

what am i missing?

 

and while i do think barney overachieved with the bat somewhat, there's not a lot of room for his offensive production to fall there

Soriano has seen a pretty steady decline, and he's already 36. The fact that people are expecting a "rebound" from him seems strange to me; I think it's more likely he continues to get worse/gets injured. Although he had a lower than average BABIP, he also had the highest HR/FB percentage he's had since 2008,and his entire second half was pretty bad. Obviously up for debate, but that's just my opinion.

 

Barney was pretty terrible after April, and that lines up with his minor league numbers, considering he was a college draftee. I expect him to be one of worst offensive regulars in the league this year, but hopefully I'm wrong.

[Guest]

Soriano has seen a pretty steady decline, and he's already 36. The fact that people are expecting a "rebound" from him seems strange to me; I think it's more likely he continues to get worse/gets injured. Although he had a lower than average BABIP, he also had the highest HR/FB percentage he's had since 2008,and his entire second half was pretty bad. Obviously up for debate, but that's just my opinion.

 

Barney was pretty terrible after April, and that lines up with his minor league numbers, considering he was a college draftee. I expect him to be one of worst offensive regulars in the league this year, but hopefully I'm wrong.

 

Maybe I'm being optimistic, but I'm not planning on Soriano being our everyday LF for very long. Especially if he's worse than last year.

 

As far as Barney's offense goes...he was bad last year and he'll probably be bad this year. It wouldn't be that hard for him to match what he did last year but if he didn't, it's hard to see him doing so much worse that it'll be a significant hit for the for the offense to take.

[jersey cubs fan]

FWIW, Soriano outperformed the Cubs total LF production last year, by 26 SLG points. Tyler Colvin, Blake DeWitt and Luis Montanez managed to drag Soriano's .243/.290/.474 line down to .248/.294/.448. If Soriano continues to decline you could still see a situation where his backup/platoon partner keeps the overall LF production in-line with last season.