2012 - Throw away/Go for it?

[dew1679666265]

Since I have to spend a few hours at the service center, I was pondering Fielder. I wonder if he might accept a package that overwhelms in AAV (comparatively). Something like 6 years/156 million, giving him a 26 mil AAV, higher than Tex's 22.5. Or maybe something like 7/168 (24 mil AAV) that allows him to opt out after the 4th year. I think I'd feel better about something like that compared to a 8 year deal at a slightly lower AAV.

 

I'd be fine with an opt-out for either after 4-5 years. It'd probably interest Prince more than Pujols since Prince is younger and is more likely to get another monster deal at 32-33 than Pujols is to get one at 35-36.

[davell]

In building for tthe future, it's certainly OK to add one big piece this year and another one next year, if that's what finances dictate. It's going to be up to Theo and Company, as to which way is best. Pujols or Fielder vs. Wilson this year, followed by Kemp, Upton or another huge hitter from 2013 vs. Cain, Hamels, Greinke or some other bigtime pitcher from that class. We probably need one of those hitters and one of those pitchers, at a bare minimum. We've just got to decide which way is the best to go.

[mookie]

Do we have what it would take to David Wright without breaking the farm? I think we do, and I think we should.

[davearm2]

Do we have what it would take to David Wright without breaking the farm? I think we do, and I think we should.

I like that option a lot too.

[davell]

Would the Mets want minor leaguers for him? I could see if they lose Reyes as well, how Barney would be of interest to them. Maybe as a 3rd piece type guy anyway. Yeah, I figure they'd want Brett, but I would think they'd probably want major leaguers as well. Jackson, Cashner, and Barney? Is that enough? Not even close?

[Clem Fandango]

I would really like it if Albert Pujols wore a Cubs jersey next season... but if Carlos Pena is manning first base instead, it damn sure better mean that Joey Votto will be there in 2013

 

I don't think Pena would accept another 1-year deal.

 

Doesn't matter anyways, I was under the impression Votto was a FA after this coming season, he won't be available as a FA until after 2013

[C.C.]

Since I have to spend a few hours at the service center, I was pondering Fielder. I wonder if he might accept a package that overwhelms in AAV (comparatively). Something like 6 years/156 million, giving him a 26 mil AAV, higher than Tex's 22.5. Or maybe something like 7/168 (24 mil AAV) that allows him to opt out after the 4th year. I think I'd feel better about something like that compared to a 8 year deal at a slightly lower AAV.

 

I'd be fine with an opt-out for either after 4-5 years. It'd probably interest Prince more than Pujols since Prince is younger and is more likely to get another monster deal at 32-33 than Pujols is to get one at 35-36.

 

I don't think any team will give him anymore then a 6 year deal, but that's a good idea less years more money. Like the Furcal deal.

[dew1679666265]

I don't think any team will give him anymore then a 6 year deal, but that's a good idea less years more money. Like the Furcal deal.

 

I'd be really surprised if he got less than 7-8 years when all is said and done. Teams will probably start the bidding at 6 years and Prince/Boras will likely start at 10 and then they'll settle in the middle.

[toonsterwu]

Do we have what it would take to David Wright without breaking the farm? I think we do, and I think we should.

 

My hunch is probably no. Overall, I don't think David Wright is that elite superstar he was several years back, but the Mets are likely to value him that way, and I just don't know if I see a package of Brett Jackson, Trey McNutt, and one or two more being enough.

[dew1679666265]

Do we have what it would take to David Wright without breaking the farm? I think we do, and I think we should.

 

My hunch is probably no. Overall, I don't think David Wright is that elite superstar he was several years back, but the Mets are likely to value him that way, and I just don't know if I see a package of Brett Jackson, Trey McNutt, and one or two more being enough.

 

In all honesty, after seeing the numbers somebody posted a while back (maybe bukie or Kyle?), I'm not sure I want to give up what it would take to get him. He was declining pretty consistently if I recall correctly.

[mul21]

 

In all honesty, after seeing the numbers somebody posted a while back (maybe bukie or Kyle?), I'm not sure I want to give up what it would take to get him. He was declining pretty consistently if I recall correctly.

 

Doesn't that have a lot to do with the new park though? I could be remembering that wrong, but I thought Citi Field was a major contributor to his drop off since they started playing there.

[dew1679666265]

Doesn't that have a lot to do with the new park though? I could be remembering that wrong, but I thought Citi Field was a major contributor to his drop off since they started playing there.

 

His decline has been both home and away, though. His road BB% has dropped to 7.0% last year and 7.4% this year after being at 13.0% his first year in Citi Field. That's led his road OBP to go from .401 to .326 to .323 the past three years. His road wOBA and OPS have also dropped steadily in the past three years. His numbers at home have fluctuated down in 2009, up in 2010, and then down in 2011.

 

Overall, his BB% dropped every year from 2007 to 2010 before rebounding some this year. His K% spiked in 2009 and 2010 to as high as 24% before falling a bit to 21.7% this year. His OBP has dropped pretty steadily from .416 in 2007 to .345 this year (held steady in 2008-9). His SLG has also dropped from .546 in 2007 to .427 this year. His wOBA has also dropped every year since 2007, from .420 to .342. His fielding got pretty good in 2007 and 2008, but then has been horrible the past 3 years (-10.0, -10.6, -10.5).

 

He's still a good player, but I'm not sure if he's the type of guy I'm clearing out my farm system for unless my scouts are convinced he's heading for a rebound.

[KingKongvs.Godzilla]

David Wright would be awesome.

[mookie]

I just figured he wouldn't cost a boatload because he is only signed through 2012, and he can void his 2013 club option if traded. So, a trade for a definitely downgraded Wright for a year of service? I don't see how the Mets could ask for too much. He is making 15 million this upcoming season. Wouldn't they need to eat some serious cheese to get a studly package?

[Clem Fandango]

The Mets are reportedly adjusting their fences to make Citi Field more of a hitter's park, and I do recall Wright being a cry baby about the dimensions. Obviously they affect everyone, but no player has taken a more dramatic, inconsistent hit to his offensive numbers in the new stadium than David Wright. I imagine they'll try and keep him around for the beginning of the year and see how his numbers pan out while, at the least, entertaining offers at the deadline.

[KingKongvs.Godzilla]

I just figured he wouldn't cost a boatload because he is only signed through 2012, and he can void his 2013 club option if traded. So, a trade for a definitely downgraded Wright for a year of service? I don't see how the Mets could ask for too much. He is making 15 million this upcoming season. Wouldn't they need to eat some serious cheese to get a studly package?

 

They should ask for alot. They're giving up a still in his prime formerly high end player turned merely good to very good player. There's still upside in that, and that FO knows if they sell him they're selling a good player likely to do some damage for his new team.

[17 Seconds]

I just figured he wouldn't cost a boatload because he is only signed through 2012, and he can void his 2013 club option if traded. So, a trade for a definitely downgraded Wright for a year of service? I don't see how the Mets could ask for too much. He is making 15 million this upcoming season. Wouldn't they need to eat some serious cheese to get a studly package?

 

They're giving up a still in his prime formerly high end player turned merely good to very good player.

 

If he's a "formerly high end player turned merely good to very good", then he is not in his prime.

[KingKongvs.Godzilla]

If he's a "formerly high end player turned merely good to very good", then he is not in his prime.

 

Whoa sorry Semantics Sam.

 

As a 29 year old David Wright is still in his athletic prime years, and therefore probably capable of throwing up a couple of really good seasons. He hasn't even really been all *that* bad the past couple of years, and in two of the past three years he's basically been a 4 WAR player. The Mets will be able to ask alot for him, and he won't come cheap. It'd be nice if he did.

[17 Seconds]

yea the mets would ask a lot for him, I'm just saying that I bet he's a hell of a lot more likely to be traded these days than a few years ago. Wright used to be a consistently elite offensive player. He's still very good, but I get the feeling that it's not necessarily going to take some amazing package to trade for him sometime during this season if the Mets aren't good.

[davearm2]

I don't think the risk/reward equation for Fielder is all that different than Soriano's was. I posted the WARP numbers earlier. I anticipate Fielder's contract numbers will be larger.

 

You think he'll get more than 8 years? I sure don't. I don't even think it's a given he gets more than 6. And the Cubs wouldn't be signing him at age 31; you'd be getting him for this typical peak years of 28-32.

 

Of course there are some gigantic contracts out there that I would be comfortable with the Cubs handing out. Obviously each one needs to be evaluated independently. Personally, I anticipate both of these guys are going to turn out badly at the dollars and years being speculated.

 

So you want them to pass on both? What about signing someone like Kemp to a big deal after 2012?

The (somewhat irrational) Cub fan in me would be thrilled and giddy if we landed Fielder or Pujols. Signing either one would be incredibly exciting. Especially Pujols.

 

The (very rational) economist in me sees both guys as losing propositions from a pure risk/reward perspective. Signing either one would be incredibly risky and potentially crippling. Especially Pujols.

 

You could argue that perhaps I'm too risk-averse, and maybe you're right. But when I remove all of the emotion from the equation, I just think both flunk the cost/benefit analysis.

[C.C.]

I don't think the risk/reward equation for Fielder is all that different than Soriano's was. I posted the WARP numbers earlier. I anticipate Fielder's contract numbers will be larger.

 

You think he'll get more than 8 years? I sure don't. I don't even think it's a given he gets more than 6. And the Cubs wouldn't be signing him at age 31; you'd be getting him for this typical peak years of 28-32.

 

Of course there are some gigantic contracts out there that I would be comfortable with the Cubs handing out. Obviously each one needs to be evaluated independently. Personally, I anticipate both of these guys are going to turn out badly at the dollars and years being speculated.

 

So you want them to pass on both? What about signing someone like Kemp to a big deal after 2012?

The (somewhat irrational) Cub fan in me would be thrilled and giddy if we landed Fielder or Pujols. Signing either one would be incredibly exciting. Especially Pujols.

 

The (very rational) economist in me sees both guys as losing propositions from a pure risk/reward perspective. Signing either one would be incredibly risky and potentially crippling. Especially Pujols.

 

You could argue that perhaps I'm too risk-averse, and maybe you're right. But when I remove all of the emotion from the equation, I just think both flunk the cost/benefit analysis.

 

 

I don't agree with any of this.

[davearm2]

If he's a "formerly high end player turned merely good to very good", then he is not in his prime.

 

Whoa sorry Semantics Sam.

 

As a 29 year old David Wright is still in his athletic prime years, and therefore probably capable of throwing up a couple of really good seasons. He hasn't even really been all *that* bad the past couple of years, and in two of the past three years he's basically been a 4 WAR player. The Mets will be able to ask alot for him, and he won't come cheap. It'd be nice if he did.

One would think that what the Mets can get back for Wright is somewhat limited by his contract.

 

I wouldn't expect anyone to be in a big hurry to shell out lots of great prospects AND $15M for one year of David Wright, coming off of several subpar seasons.

[KingKongvs.Godzilla]

One would think that what the Mets can get back for Wright is somewhat limited by his contract.

 

I wouldn't expect anyone to be in a big hurry to shell out lots of great prospects AND $15M for one year of David Wright, coming off of several subpar seasons.

 

http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/w/wrighda03.shtml

 

Besides last season what should I be worried about here? The '09 with 10 HRs? It also came with a .300+ BA and a .390 OBP, plus it's hard to believe he's a 10 HR guy in Wrigley anyway.

 

I know Wright's had his issues, but except for last year 15 million really isn't a bad price for him. Even last year his Iso's were strong...

[Hairyducked Idiot]

One would think that what the Mets can get back for Wright is somewhat limited by his contract.

 

I wouldn't expect anyone to be in a big hurry to shell out lots of great prospects AND $15M for one year of David Wright, coming off of several subpar seasons.

 

http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/w/wrighda03.shtml

 

Besides last season what should I be worried about here? The '09 with 10 HRs? It also came with a .300+ BA and a .390 OBP, plus it's hard to believe he's a 10 HR guy in Wrigley anyway.

 

That .390 OBP came with a .394 BABIP. He couldn't and didn't keep that up. UZR also has him as brutal three years running. If he were super cheap I might consider him an interesting flyer, but I wouldn't pay anything for him in money or talent.

[dew1679666265]

http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/w/wrighda03.shtml

 

Besides last season what should I be worried about here? The '09 with 10 HRs? It also came with a .300+ BA and a .390 OBP, plus it's hard to believe he's a 10 HR guy in Wrigley anyway.

 

I know Wright's had his issues, but except for last year 15 million really isn't a bad price for him. Even last year his Iso's were strong...

 

If I could sign Wright for 1yr/$15 mil, I'd do it. However, it's the combination of paying him $15 mil next year, having to work out a new contract after that (what will his demands be?), and giving up potentially elite (for your system) prospects for him. If he deems himself still an elite player and won't sign for anything less than elite money, then the Cubs, for example, could be giving up BJax/McNutt/Cashner/Liria for one year of non-elite (possibly) David Wright. That's not a good proposition.