Re: Darvish

[WilcoFan]

If the choice was Darvish versus Fielder (and who knows if it was), then the safe decision is Fielder, for a number of reasons. Missing on Darvish is a much safer play, considering the relative strength of the 2013 free agent class of pitchers versus hitters. It would be much easier to construct a stopgap staff that could be moderately successful in 2012, while building to a major FA pitching splurge in the upcoming offseason, than it would be to attempt the same on the offensive side of the ball.

 

As of right now (and of course this can, and will, change), there are starting pitchers at every level next year, whether it be a #1/2 (Cain, Danks, Greinke, Hamels), #2/3 (Marcum, Lewis, A. Sanchez), and even a fair share of high upside, probably low cost options (Liriano, Matsuzaka).

 

Compare that to the relatively short list of offensive talent at any position: Hamilton (age concerns), Kendrick (injury concerns), Wright (club option), Montero

 

All in all, if the goal is to improve the team in the near future (1-2 years) it seems the miss on Darvish is a much lower risk maneuver than would be an inability to significantly improve the offense this offseason.

[dew1679666265]

Go 10/275 for Pujols?

 

Yes.

[Exile on Waveland]

If we sign Fielder and one of the Cubans this offseason would be a major success to me. Long ways to go but possible.

 

I would mostly agree, except I think the Cubs need to add a pitcher as well. Someone like Jackson or Kuroda is fine, and maybe even someone pretty crappy like Maholm. This team desperately needs pitching, even the average innings-eater types.*

 

Edit: I would also note that, at this time, I'd be pretty darn surprised if the Cubs signed Fielder. Pleasantly surprised, but surprised nonetheless.

 

 

*I'm sure this will elicit responses like "the Cubs have Cashner and Wells and etc.!" Relying on Cashner to start the whole season is setting oneself up for failure (did last year not happen?). Nor do I think Wells can be counted on either, much less counted on to be good (c'mon, people, he was smoke and mirrors and has gotten worse each season . . . it was nice while it lasted, though).

[SouthSideRyan]

I really like this concept that the first 350 innings of Wells's major league career was smoke and mirrors (he doesn't strike out 8+/9!!!), and it's the next 130(some of which were spent injured) that are his true talent level

[Exile on Waveland]

I really like this concept that the first 350 innings of Wells's major league career was smoke and mirrors (he doesn't strike out 8+/9!!!), and it's the next 130(some of which were spent injured) that are his true talent level

 

So Casey McGehee is a 3-ish WAR player then, right? Because, based on over 1,000 at-bats, he is. Sometimes players have unexplainable starts, or years, in their career.

[SouthSideRyan]

Was McGehee a converted pitcher?

[jersey cubs fan]

I really like this concept that the first 350 innings of Wells's major league career was smoke and mirrors (he doesn't strike out 8+/9!!!), and it's the next 130(some of which were spent injured) that are his true talent level

 

He doesn't strike people out, he's extremely hittable, and he's not all that great at preventing walks either. Couple that with what I thought was a considerable amount of luck on a few warning track drives that came up just short. I expected him to get worse from those early results, and so far he has. He's got marginal stuff and I just think it's very likely he's more like his 2011 numbers indicate than his early success.

[CubColtPacer]

I really like this concept that the first 350 innings of Wells's major league career was smoke and mirrors (he doesn't strike out 8+/9!!!), and it's the next 130(some of which were spent injured) that are his true talent level

 

So Casey McGehee is a 3-ish WAR player then, right? Because, based on over 1,000 at-bats, he is. Sometimes players have unexplainable starts, or years, in their career.

 

McGehee put up numbers that were better in the major leagues than any year in the minors, including his 2 years in the hitting crazy PCL. Wells had a very good K/BB ratio the entire way through the minors and had 2 excellent seasons in the minors. They are not really comparable.

[Exile on Waveland]

Was McGehee a converted pitcher?

 

Does that help or hurt your argument?

 

First, Wells threw 107 innings in his age-21 season in 2004. It's not like he was converted to pitching the year before his big league debut or something. Second, I look and see a player that pitched only 95 and 123 innings -- and never more than 131 -- before having his workload increased to 191 and 194 innings his first two years in MLB. With that rather sudden increase in workload, it doesn't surprise me he became injured and only pitched 142 innings last year.

[SouthSideRyan]

I really like this concept that the first 350 innings of Wells's major league career was smoke and mirrors (he doesn't strike out 8+/9!!!), and it's the next 130(some of which were spent injured) that are his true talent level

 

He doesn't strike people out, he's extremely hittable, and he's not all that great at preventing walks either. Couple that with what I thought was a considerable amount of luck on a few warning track drives that came up just short. I expected him to get worse from those early results, and so far he has. He's got marginal stuff and I just think it's very likely he's more like his 2011 numbers indicate than his early success.

 

The difference in Wells '09-'10 and Wells '11 was that his HR rate nearly doubled and his GB rate tanked (likely a correlation) Pitch f/x is still unreliable going backwards regarding pitch type, but he threw the sinker ~5% less in 2011 vs 2010, I have no idea why, but I have a hard time just saying he was lucky to throw so many more groundballs and so many fewer home runs in '09 and '10.

[jersey cubs fan]

I really like this concept that the first 350 innings of Wells's major league career was smoke and mirrors (he doesn't strike out 8+/9!!!), and it's the next 130(some of which were spent injured) that are his true talent level

 

He doesn't strike people out, he's extremely hittable, and he's not all that great at preventing walks either. Couple that with what I thought was a considerable amount of luck on a few warning track drives that came up just short. I expected him to get worse from those early results, and so far he has. He's got marginal stuff and I just think it's very likely he's more like his 2011 numbers indicate than his early success.

 

The difference in Wells '09-'10 and Wells '11 was that his HR rate nearly doubled and his GB rate tanked (likely a correlation) Pitch f/x is still unreliable going backwards regarding pitch type, but he threw the sinker ~5% less in 2011 vs 2010, I have no idea why, but I have a hard time just saying he was lucky to throw so many more groundballs and so many fewer home runs in '09 and '10.

 

I understand the numbers aren't completely in my favor. But he's got mediocre stuff and his regression was expected (by me and others) so I'm not holding out much hope that the earlier success is going to be repeated.

[Exile on Waveland]

I really like this concept that the first 350 innings of Wells's major league career was smoke and mirrors (he doesn't strike out 8+/9!!!), and it's the next 130(some of which were spent injured) that are his true talent level

 

So Casey McGehee is a 3-ish WAR player then, right? Because, based on over 1,000 at-bats, he is. Sometimes players have unexplainable starts, or years, in their career.

 

McGehee put up numbers that were better in the major leagues than any year in the minors, including his 2 years in the hitting crazy PCL. Wells had a very good K/BB ratio the entire way through the minors and had 2 excellent seasons in the minors. They are not really comparable.

 

You're missing the point of the comparison. The point of the comparison is that it's not illogical to believe Wells' first two years don't presage his entire career. They may not be identical, and Casey McGehee might be Wells' reductio ad absurdum, but players do have randomly good seasons and yet never again approach those heights.

 

If you want to discuss Wells' numbers, then sure. I'm guessing the two excellent seasons in the minors for Wells were his age 22 and 23 seasons, in which he pitched 106 and 131 innings (I'll incorporate my previous post about concerns of sudden workload increases). In the majors, Wells has pitched worse each year by basically every statistic: WAR (3.2-3.0-1.1), FIP (3.88-3.93-4.99), ERA+ (146-99-78), ERA (3.05-4.26-4.99), BB/9 (2.5-2.9-3.1), K/BB (2.26-2.29-1.74) (not exact there, admittedly), ground ball percentage (47.9%-46.9%-42.4%), etc. You couple that with the eye-test, which says he does not have outstanding stuff by any means, and one must start to wonder.

 

Perhaps last year was a blip; I cannot see the future. But I see a player without very good stuff, with a big increase in workload, with a decrease in performance, an increase in injury, and I have little hope for the future.

Edited December 21, 2011 by Exile on Waveland

[SouthSideRyan]

Was McGehee a converted pitcher?

 

Does that help or hurt your argument?

 

First, Wells threw 107 innings in his age-21 season in 2004. It's not like he was converted to pitching the year before his big league debut or something. Second, I look and see a player that pitched only 95 and 123 innings -- and never more than 131 -- before having his workload increased to 191 and 194 innings his first two years in MLB. With that rather sudden increase in workload, it doesn't surprise me he became injured and only pitched 142 innings last year.

 

Help, unless you think he's likely to be injured the rest of his career because of a 2 year delayed injury from an increased workload.

[Guest]

Wells doesn't have to return to being a 3 win pitcher to be useful.

[SouthSideRyan]

Exile, your K/9 numbers are way off. They're 5.66-6.67-5.45. (ETA looks like you posted K/BB)

 

It also seems disingenuous to talk about him declining each year, when the only drop off of note (when factoring the K rate rising at a slightly higher rate than BB rate.) is his ERA. His FIP and bWAR were barely worse from '09-'10, while his xFIP and fWAR were slightly better.

Edited December 21, 2011 by SouthSideRyan

[jersey cubs fan]

Was McGehee a converted pitcher?

 

Does that help or hurt your argument?

 

First, Wells threw 107 innings in his age-21 season in 2004. It's not like he was converted to pitching the year before his big league debut or something. Second, I look and see a player that pitched only 95 and 123 innings -- and never more than 131 -- before having his workload increased to 191 and 194 innings his first two years in MLB. With that rather sudden increase in workload, it doesn't surprise me he became injured and only pitched 142 innings last year.

 

Help, unless you think he's likely to be injured the rest of his career because of a 2 year delayed injury from an increased workload.

 

He's a pitcher though. Injuries generally aren't just one off issues with them. Arms deteriorate and when they start off mediocre (stuff wise, not results) they generally don't have much place to go but down.

[CubColtPacer]

I really like this concept that the first 350 innings of Wells's major league career was smoke and mirrors (he doesn't strike out 8+/9!!!), and it's the next 130(some of which were spent injured) that are his true talent level

 

So Casey McGehee is a 3-ish WAR player then, right? Because, based on over 1,000 at-bats, he is. Sometimes players have unexplainable starts, or years, in their career.

 

McGehee put up numbers that were better in the major leagues than any year in the minors, including his 2 years in the hitting crazy PCL. Wells had a very good K/BB ratio the entire way through the minors and had 2 excellent seasons in the minors. They are not really comparable.

 

You're missing the point of the comparison. The point of the comparison is that it's not illogical to believe Wells' first two years don't presage his entire career. They may not be identical, and Casey McGehee might be Wells' reductio ad absurdum, but players do have randomly good seasons for little apparent reason.

 

If you want to discuss Wells' numbers, then sure. I'm guessing the two excellent seasons in the minors for Wells were his age 22 and 23 seasons, in which he pitched 106 and 131 innings (I'll incorporate my previous post about concerns of sudden workload increases). In the majors, Wells has pitched worse each year by basically every statistic: WAR (3.2-3.0-1.1), FIP (3.88-3.93-4.99), ERA+ (146-99-78), ERA (3.05-4.26-4.99), BB/9 (2.5-2.9-3.1), K/9 (2.26-2.29-1.74) (not exact there, admittedly), ground ball percentage (47.9%-46.9%-42.4%), etc. You couple that with the eye-test, which says he does not have outstanding stuff by any means, and one must start to wonder.

 

Perhaps last year was a blip; I cannot see the future. But I see a player without very good stuff, with a big increase in workload, with a decrease in performance, an increase in injury, and I have little hope for the future.

 

The peripherals for 2009 and 2010 are very similar and in line with his minor league career:

 

2009: 5.66 K/9, 2.5 BB/9, 2.26 K/BB, 0.76 HR/9, 3.88 FIP, 4.18 xFIP

2010: 6.67 K/9, 2.92 BB/9, 2.29 K/BB, 0.88 HR/9, 3.93 FIP, 3.94 xFIP

 

Obviously the ERA was a lot lower in 2009, but people knew that his 09 ERA was lucky because he had outpitched his peripherals by so much. But 2010 was essentially the same year. It looks like he threw outside the zone a little bit more which increased his strikeouts and walks by a little bit, and his home run rate was very similar.

 

Can Wells come back and be the pitcher he was in 2009/2010? It's hard to say. It depends on the extent of the injury. But those years weren't randomly good. They're very similar to his minor league career. And if he's healthy, there's no real reason that he can't come back and have seasons similar to that once again.

[Exile on Waveland]

Wells doesn't have to return to being a 3 win pitcher to be useful.

 

Now, that I would agree with. If he can do only so much as pitch the 190+ innings he pitched his first two years, while pitching no better than last year, he'd be useful because he'd be reliable. After 2006 and last year I think we should understand how important reliable (even if mediocre) starting pitching can be.

[SouthSideRyan]

Wells faced 39.04 batters per 9 innings in '10. and faced 37.77 batters per 9 innings in '09. A small part of the rise in rate stats from '09-'10 can be attributed to that.

[Exile on Waveland]

Was McGehee a converted pitcher?

 

Does that help or hurt your argument?

 

First, Wells threw 107 innings in his age-21 season in 2004. It's not like he was converted to pitching the year before his big league debut or something. Second, I look and see a player that pitched only 95 and 123 innings -- and never more than 131 -- before having his workload increased to 191 and 194 innings his first two years in MLB. With that rather sudden increase in workload, it doesn't surprise me he became injured and only pitched 142 innings last year.

 

Help, unless you think he's likely to be injured the rest of his career because of a 2 year delayed injury from an increased workload.

 

A two-year delayed injury? That's a pretty obvious obfuscation. He pitched 190+ innings in consecutive years, after never pitching more than 131 innings. Those consecutive seasons, not only the increase the first year, is my concern. That an injury (possibly) from an increased workload did not manifest itself until the next year is entirely reasonable. Arm injuries aren't like clockwork.

 

Further, as gooney said, he's a pitcher. I don't find it difficult to fathom he'll remain injured. Pitchers are made to be injured.

[jersey cubs fan]

Wells faced 39.04 batters per 9 innings in '10. and faced 37.77 batters per 9 innings in '09. A small part of the rise in rate stats from '09-'10 can be attributed to that.

 

Wouldn't you generally face more batters per nine innings if things like your walk, hit and HR rate went up? That's not something that's in his favor.

[Exile on Waveland]

Exile, your K/9 numbers are way off. They're 5.66-6.67-5.45. (ETA looks like you posted K/BB)

 

Apologies. It's been changed.

[SouthSideRyan]

Was McGehee a converted pitcher?

 

Does that help or hurt your argument?

 

First, Wells threw 107 innings in his age-21 season in 2004. It's not like he was converted to pitching the year before his big league debut or something. Second, I look and see a player that pitched only 95 and 123 innings -- and never more than 131 -- before having his workload increased to 191 and 194 innings his first two years in MLB. With that rather sudden increase in workload, it doesn't surprise me he became injured and only pitched 142 innings last year.

 

Help, unless you think he's likely to be injured the rest of his career because of a 2 year delayed injury from an increased workload.

 

He's a pitcher though. Injuries generally aren't just one off issues with them. Arms deteriorate and when they start off mediocre (stuff wise, not results) they generally don't have much place to go but down.

 

It's not like it was a frayed labrum, it was a forearm injury.

[RynoRules]

Wells doesn't have to return to being a 3 win pitcher to be useful.

 

Agreed, but doesn't his overall usefullness as 1-1.5 WAR player depend on who else is around him in the rotation? I don't see how he does much for this Cubs team as it is currently put together.

[jersey cubs fan]

It's not like it was a frayed labrum, it was a forearm injury.

 

And forearm injuries aren't just a sore throat either.