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Posted

 

"hey billy, you can do what you want, we'll give you a mountain of money, but you absolutely have to keep these two guys who have pretty average to below average track records drafting and developing major league players. we all know the very reason we hired you was to change things beginning with drafting and player development, but you can't change the guys in charge of those two departments. they are untouchable."

 

And also, you cannot pick your own assistant, you must use Jim's old one.

I know it sounds silly, but this isn't an uncommon practice in the business world, especially when dealing with an executive admin/assistant who has been with the company for a long time or who has a lot of responsibilities (it sounds like this person has one of those). There are significant monetary and productivity costs associated with firing good and/or knowledgeable employees.

 

You don't have to fire the existing one to allow a new executive to hire his own assistant. If that person was any good, they can be efficiently moved into a number of other areas of the business. That would be better for their career anyway.

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Posted
Maybe its just fluff:

http://espn.go.com/blog/chicago/cubs/post/_/id/6113/bush-some-front-office-staff-could-return

 

Don't get me wrong, I have no problem with a new GM getting freedom to hire/fire whoever he wants, but there may not be a huge overhaul, especially when the owner may be happy with many of the top advisors.

 

There's nothing fluff about it (at least for next year), expect almost all of the scouting and development to be the same.

Posted

 

"hey billy, you can do what you want, we'll give you a mountain of money, but you absolutely have to keep these two guys who have pretty average to below average track records drafting and developing major league players. we all know the very reason we hired you was to change things beginning with drafting and player development, but you can't change the guys in charge of those two departments. they are untouchable."

 

And also, you cannot pick your own assistant, you must use Jim's old one.

I know it sounds silly, but this isn't an uncommon practice in the business world, especially when dealing with an executive admin/assistant who has been with the company for a long time or who has a lot of responsibilities (it sounds like this person has one of those). There are significant monetary and productivity costs associated with firing good and/or knowledgeable employees.

 

not if those people have a different organizational philosophy then your own. sure, the lower-level scouts will probably keep their positions and then will be replaced accordingly if their work isn't up to par with the expectations of the new regime. the heads of departments, especially in departments that directly influence the performance on the field, will almost certainly be replaced.

Posted
Maybe its just fluff:

http://espn.go.com/blog/chicago/cubs/post/_/id/6113/bush-some-front-office-staff-could-return

 

Don't get me wrong, I have no problem with a new GM getting freedom to hire/fire whoever he wants, but there may not be a huge overhaul, especially when the owner may be happy with many of the top advisors.

 

There's nothing fluff about it (at least for next year), expect almost all of the scouting and development to be the same.

 

if ricketts enjoys hiring yes men and being involved in the day-to-day operations of the actual baseball team, then the cubs are in trouble.

 

if ricketts has his sights set on hiring one of the big 3, he's going to keep his mouth shut about fleita and wilken. although i agree if the plan is to get gillick in there, wilken will surely be retained and i will be raging anus.

Posted (edited)

 

"hey billy, you can do what you want, we'll give you a mountain of money, but you absolutely have to keep these two guys who have pretty average to below average track records drafting and developing major league players. we all know the very reason we hired you was to change things beginning with drafting and player development, but you can't change the guys in charge of those two departments. they are untouchable."

 

And also, you cannot pick your own assistant, you must use Jim's old one.

I know it sounds silly, but this isn't an uncommon practice in the business world, especially when dealing with an executive admin/assistant who has been with the company for a long time or who has a lot of responsibilities (it sounds like this person has one of those). There are significant monetary and productivity costs associated with firing good and/or knowledgeable employees.

 

not if those people have a different organizational philosophy then your own. sure, the lower-level scouts will probably keep their positions and then will be replaced accordingly if their work isn't up to par with the expectations of the new regime. the heads of departments, especially in departments that directly influence the performance on the field, will almost certainly be replaced.

 

If you're talking about scouting, there's always going to be a different philosophy if you're interested in a more analytical approach once it goes from GM to scouting director. STL has a more analytical scouting director and one of the most poorly run set-ups in the game, but their crosscheckers and area scouts have the same beliefs as any other crosschecker and scout.

 

Going from Hendry to Wilken is a much more similar philosophy than Epstein to Wilken, it's up to both parties to embrace and combine those differences to get the both out of each other.

Edited by UK
Posted
Maybe its just fluff:

http://espn.go.com/blog/chicago/cubs/post/_/id/6113/bush-some-front-office-staff-could-return

 

Don't get me wrong, I have no problem with a new GM getting freedom to hire/fire whoever he wants, but there may not be a huge overhaul, especially when the owner may be happy with many of the top advisors.

 

There's nothing fluff about it (at least for next year), expect almost all of the scouting and development to be the same.

 

if ricketts enjoys hiring yes men and being involved in the day-to-day operations of the actual baseball team, then the cubs are in trouble.

 

if ricketts has his sights set on hiring one of the big 3, he's going to keep his mouth shut about fleita and wilken. although i agree if the plan is to get gillick in there, wilken will surely be retained and i will be raging anus.

 

How are they going to do this? Their window is too small to overhaul the staff.

 

They're not going to start really narrowing down until the end of the season (October). By the time they find a candidate, it'll likely run around Nov 1st. Nov 1st is the date when most scouts, management, etc have their contracts renewed. If I'm a scouting director or a highly rated national crosschecker, you're going to get offered another 2yr contract within this month, why would you turn that down in hopes of getting it in Nov? Knowing that if you don't get it, the chances of you retaining a similar position are very slim.

Posted
Maybe its just fluff:

http://espn.go.com/blog/chicago/cubs/post/_/id/6113/bush-some-front-office-staff-could-return

 

Don't get me wrong, I have no problem with a new GM getting freedom to hire/fire whoever he wants, but there may not be a huge overhaul, especially when the owner may be happy with many of the top advisors.

 

There's nothing fluff about it (at least for next year), expect almost all of the scouting and development to be the same.

 

if ricketts enjoys hiring yes men and being involved in the day-to-day operations of the actual baseball team, then the cubs are in trouble.

 

if ricketts has his sights set on hiring one of the big 3, he's going to keep his mouth shut about fleita and wilken. although i agree if the plan is to get gillick in there, wilken will surely be retained and i will be raging anus.

 

How are they going to do this? Their window is too small to overhaul the staff.

 

They're not going to start really narrowing down until the end of the season (October). By the time they find a candidate, it'll likely run around Nov 1st. Nov 1st is the date when most scouts, management, etc have their contracts renewed. If I'm a scouting director or a highly rated national crosschecker, you're going to get offered another 2yr contract within this month, why would you turn that down in hopes of getting it in Nov? Knowing that if you don't get it, the chances of you retaining a similar position are very slim.

 

they wouldn't be overhauling the staff, they would be replacing department heads to more align with organizational philosophy. why would they wait to do this and prolong the wait time for shaping the team in their image?

 

wilken has had 6 years to draft and develop a power-hitting prospect, and he only just this last year attempted to do so. that's not going to impress an incoming GM/Team Pres, especially if it's one of the big 3--who will likely want to take more of an active role in drafting and dictating what the farm system is valuing.

Posted
How are they going to do this? Their window is too small to overhaul the staff.

 

They're not going to start really narrowing down until the end of the season (October). By the time they find a candidate, it'll likely run around Nov 1st. Nov 1st is the date when most scouts, management, etc have their contracts renewed. If I'm a scouting director or a highly rated national crosschecker, you're going to get offered another 2yr contract within this month, why would you turn that down in hopes of getting it in Nov? Knowing that if you don't get it, the chances of you retaining a similar position are very slim.

 

There's a difference between making a couple key changes and overhauling a staff. They should be able to have a good idea of who they will eventually hire by the end of September, they should make that hire in October and he should be able to bring it, at the very least, a Fleita replacement in October as well. I'm not sure why a new guy would need a month to work on his top lieutenents.

Posted

they wouldn't be overhauling the staff, they would be replacing department heads to more align with organizational philosophy. why would they wait to do this and prolong the wait time for shaping the team in their image?

 

wilken has had 6 years to draft and develop a power-hitting prospect, and he only just this last year attempted to do so. that's not going to impress an incoming GM/Team Pres, especially if it's one of the big 3--who will likely want to take more of an active role in drafting and dictating what the farm system is valuing.

 

They would wait to do this because once they find their GM, whether or not the scouting director and player personnel people are not under contract by another MLB club is another story.

 

Scouts and player personnel developments guys sign contracts (usually 1-2 yrs), it's not like you can put a two week notice to change organizations, they have to grant you out of that contract. That is usually done between October-November and wouldn't make sense for someone to wait and see if a GM candidate actually gets that position because they have a good relationship with them.

 

As far as Wilken, he drafts BPA. Colvin projected to have avg. power as does Jackson, etc., but he does value the total package of a position player more than just one tool.

 

If you're going to make that commitment of a early pick towards someone with plus plus power, they still need another tool.

 

Dopirak and Harvey had plus plus power, yet once they advanced and couldn't translate it, they were virtually useless b/c they has nothing to fall back on.

Posted
How are they going to do this? Their window is too small to overhaul the staff.

 

They're not going to start really narrowing down until the end of the season (October). By the time they find a candidate, it'll likely run around Nov 1st. Nov 1st is the date when most scouts, management, etc have their contracts renewed. If I'm a scouting director or a highly rated national crosschecker, you're going to get offered another 2yr contract within this month, why would you turn that down in hopes of getting it in Nov? Knowing that if you don't get it, the chances of you retaining a similar position are very slim.

 

There's a difference between making a couple key changes and overhauling a staff. They should be able to have a good idea of who they will eventually hire by the end of September, they should make that hire in October and he should be able to bring it, at the very least, a Fleita replacement in October as well. I'm not sure why a new guy would need a month to work on his top lieutenents.

 

How are they going to interview/hire a GM that currently holds that title while the season is still going on?

Posted
How are they going to do this? Their window is too small to overhaul the staff.

 

They're not going to start really narrowing down until the end of the season (October). By the time they find a candidate, it'll likely run around Nov 1st. Nov 1st is the date when most scouts, management, etc have their contracts renewed. If I'm a scouting director or a highly rated national crosschecker, you're going to get offered another 2yr contract within this month, why would you turn that down in hopes of getting it in Nov? Knowing that if you don't get it, the chances of you retaining a similar position are very slim.

 

There's a difference between making a couple key changes and overhauling a staff. They should be able to have a good idea of who they will eventually hire by the end of September, they should make that hire in October and he should be able to bring it, at the very least, a Fleita replacement in October as well. I'm not sure why a new guy would need a month to work on his top lieutenents.

 

How are they going to interview/hire a GM that currently holds that title while the season is still going on?

 

Well, we don't know they will make such a hire, but owners have a way of having conversations and narrowing it down so that the decision can be made before the season is officially complete. But last I checked, October was the end of the season, so I'm not sure what the point of your question is.

Posted

they wouldn't be overhauling the staff, they would be replacing department heads to more align with organizational philosophy. why would they wait to do this and prolong the wait time for shaping the team in their image?

 

wilken has had 6 years to draft and develop a power-hitting prospect, and he only just this last year attempted to do so. that's not going to impress an incoming GM/Team Pres, especially if it's one of the big 3--who will likely want to take more of an active role in drafting and dictating what the farm system is valuing.

 

They would wait to do this because once they find their GM, whether or not the scouting director and player personnel people are not under contract by another MLB club is another story.

 

Scouts and player personnel developments guys sign contracts (usually 1-2 yrs), it's not like you can put a two week notice to change organizations, they have to grant you out of that contract. That is usually done between October-November and wouldn't make sense for someone to wait and see if a GM candidate actually gets that position because they have a good relationship with them.

 

aren't there outs in contracts based on promotions? i would think so, but obviously could be wrong.

 

As far as Wilken, he drafts BPA. Colvin projected to have avg. power as does Jackson, etc., but he does value the total package of a position player more than just one tool.

 

If you're going to make that commitment of a early pick towards someone with plus plus power, they still need another tool.

 

Dopirak and Harvey had plus plus power, yet once they advanced and couldn't translate it, they were virtually useless b/c they has nothing to fall back on.

 

so a couple plus power prospects have been unsuccessful, it would still make me feel better if we drafted hitters with plus power as opposed to hitters who, at their best, are extreme up-and-down guys like rios, colvin, wells, and at worst never make it out of rookie ball.

Posted

 

Well, we don't know they will make such a hire, but owners have a way of having conversations and narrowing it down so that the decision can be made before the season is officially complete. But last I checked, October was the end of the season, so I'm not sure what the point of your question is.

 

They can narrow down the candidates, but flying them in, interviewing them, and hiring them is another process.

 

But it sounds like you want a GM that hasn't been interviewed yet to have a staff assembled, ready to go, and expect key components of that staff to be hired despite the fact they don't know if they've been hired.

Posted

 

aren't there outs in contracts based on promotions? i would think so, but obviously could be wrong.

 

 

so a couple plus power prospects have been unsuccessful, it would still make me feel better if we drafted hitters with plus power as opposed to hitters who, at their best, are extreme up-and-down guys like rios, colvin, wells, and at worst never make it out of rookie ball.

 

An organization will grant a promotion, if someone like Hahn or Logan White gets offered the position, they'll get it even if they're under contract by the Sox and Dodgers. In Oakland, they mentioned that Beane would likely be granted to interview if he desires despite the fact Oakland is not obligated to do so. Even with that, there's a time crunch, it's much easier to hire one person and have him a growing year and then assemble than expect him to have his staff. The Cubs already know that their scouting and development staff is coming back, I'm sure the next GM will bring in a couple of guys next year (assistant GMs, etc) but I would expect to see Flieta and Wilken in their roles. After '12, I expect many changes.

 

I don't believe in drafting based on position or tools, rather than BPA.

Posted

Granted sports aren't like all other businesses, but it doesn't seem very uncommon for a business to bring in a new head guy, whether it be CEO, CFO, President, etc and retain all the lower level management.

 

I think if there was a large desire for Ricketts of a total overhaul, Wilken and Fleita would be gone already. Its seems when Sports Franchises have large overhauls that the initial axe cuts deep.

Posted

 

aren't there outs in contracts based on promotions? i would think so, but obviously could be wrong.

 

 

so a couple plus power prospects have been unsuccessful, it would still make me feel better if we drafted hitters with plus power as opposed to hitters who, at their best, are extreme up-and-down guys like rios, colvin, wells, and at worst never make it out of rookie ball.

 

An organization will grant a promotion, if someone like Hahn or Logan White gets offered the position, they'll get it even if they're under contract by the Sox and Dodgers. In Oakland, they mentioned that Beane would likely be granted to interview if he desires despite the fact Oakland is not obligated to do so. Even with that, there's a time crunch, it's much easier to hire one person and have him a growing year and then assemble than expect him to have his staff. The Cubs already know that their scouting and development staff is coming back, I'm sure the next GM will bring in a couple of guys next year (assistant GMs, etc) but I would expect to see Flieta and Wilken in their roles. After '12, I expect many changes.

 

I don't believe in drafting based on position or tools, rather than BPA.

 

fair enough

Posted
Granted sports aren't like all other businesses, but it doesn't seem very uncommon for a business to bring in a new head guy, whether it be CEO, CFO, President, etc and retain all the lower level management.

 

I think if there was a large desire for Ricketts of a total overhaul, Wilken and Fleita would be gone already. Its seems when Sports Franchises have large overhauls that the initial axe cuts deep.

 

the directors of scouting and player development aren't exactly "lower level management". compared to the GM and Team President, yes, but these are very high-ranking people who influence what goes on on the field directly, with a lot of people that report to them.

Posted
Granted sports aren't like all other businesses, but it doesn't seem very uncommon for a business to bring in a new head guy, whether it be CEO, CFO, President, etc and retain all the lower level management.

 

I think if there was a large desire for Ricketts of a total overhaul, Wilken and Fleita would be gone already. Its seems when Sports Franchises have large overhauls that the initial axe cuts deep.

 

the directors of scouting and player development aren't exactly "lower level management". compared to the GM and Team President, yes, but these are very high-ranking people who influence what goes on on the field directly, with a lot of people that report to them.

Sorry. Did not mean "lower level" in the conventional sense, just those reporting to the GM (or CEO). So if the GM was the CEO, you can bring in a new CEO and keep the CFO, COO, and Vice Presidents, and thats not too weird.

 

What I see as possible or even likely is that the new GM comes in and most of those reporting to him, as well as those under them staying (some changes, but not big). Then our new GM is going to bring in a whole new department for statistical analysis. And we are so bare there, thats where our new GMs focus will be. Then you may see a couple new guys brought in under newly created positions, such as assistant titles or vice-pres titles. These new guys would be prepared to take over roles within a year or two if guys like Wilken and Fleita aren't meshing with the new GM.

Posted
wilken has had 6 years to draft and develop a power-hitting prospect, and he only just this last year attempted to do so. that's not going to impress an incoming GM/Team Pres, especially if it's one of the big 3--who will likely want to take more of an active role in drafting and dictating what the farm system is valuing.

a) Wilken only drafts. He has nothing to do with the development side.

b) Wilken's job isn't to draft power hitters. His job is to draft guys that will become bigleaguers. Obviously he would have selected differently if the emphasis was on power hitters.

 

Your entire premise here relies on an assumption that the next GM won't like Wilken, or want to retain him.

 

Why are you assuming that?

 

Heck it's not crazy to think having Wilken onboard makes the Cubs' job more attractive to candidates. After all, the guy does have a pretty strong reputation in the industry.

Posted
wilken has had 6 years to draft and develop a power-hitting prospect, and he only just this last year attempted to do so. that's not going to impress an incoming GM/Team Pres, especially if it's one of the big 3--who will likely want to take more of an active role in drafting and dictating what the farm system is valuing.

a) Wilken only drafts. He has nothing to do with the development side.

b) Wilken's job isn't to draft power hitters. His job is to draft guys that will become bigleaguers. Obviously he would have selected differently if the emphasis was on power hitters.

 

Your entire premise here relies on an assumption that the next GM won't like Wilken, or want to retain him.

 

Why are you assuming that?

 

Heck it's not crazy to think having Wilken onboard makes the Cubs' job more attractive to candidates. After all, the guy does have a pretty strong reputation in the industry.

 

a. i know this, however, i'm speaking of players he has drafted that have panned out. none have proven themselves in the power department, and all offense flows from power.

b. his job is to find value, and he hasn't found much. he hasn't valued power and it's hurt him.

 

wilken has already had issues with a stats-oriented GM, i don't think he'll find much quarter with beane or epstein or friedman. he left toronto because he, like most scouts, is in love with the music of the spheres, and didn't want a computer telling him how to draft. he wants to prove that he can dowse talent, high tech talent-finding machines be-damned. he's gonna go out there with his forked stick and bring home a ballplayer.

Posted
This may be a stupid question, but for amateur scouting, isn't "old school" scouting still really important, probably even more important that stats. I mean if you are a really good H.S. player you're either going to get such terrible pitches that you walk without trying or you're so good that even the terrible ones you can hit for extra bases, that your stats wouldn't tell what type of approach you may actually have against better competition and how it will correlate. I mean high level statistical analysis relies on having a large enough set of results to base it on and ability to control variables (such as competition level). I have a hard time imagining high school statistical analysis is at that level. Maybe a bit more for D1 College, but nowhere near the level of MiLB or MLB still. All this for international amateur scouting as well.
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Posted
i will change my screen name to raging anus if fleita and/or wilken are still with the cubs next year

 

i think there's a decent chance that at least one of them is back, so i'm pretty excited about this.

I hope somebody has bookmarked this. I'm way too old to remember this next spring.

 

The last time this happened was pretty awesome.

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