can we talk about Starlin Castro?

[jersey cubs fan]

Jersey, out of curiosity, do you want or expect him to be the Cubs #3 hitter going down the line?

 

Ideally they would have better hitters right now who could fit the bill in the middle of the order and allow him to hit somewhere else. Down the line, I see no reason why he couldn't be the type of hitter to rely on everyday in that spot for years and years.

 

If the 2, 3, 4 in 2015 was Jackson, Castro, Rizzo, that could be pretty cool

 

Personally, I'd want to see Jackson and Castro slid up one spot each and #3 filled with awesome player to be named later, or Rizzo slid up and #4 filled by awesome player to be named later.

 

That would also be nice, but Castro could very easily be a 900 OPS type hitter in his prime and awesome enough in his own right.

[Sammy Sofa]

Jersey, out of curiosity, do you want or expect him to be the Cubs #3 hitter going down the line?

 

Ideally they would have better hitters right now who could fit the bill in the middle of the order and allow him to hit somewhere else. Down the line, I see no reason why he couldn't be the type of hitter to rely on everyday in that spot for years and years.

 

If the 2, 3, 4 in 2015 was Jackson, Castro, Rizzo, that could be pretty cool

 

Personally, I'd want to see Jackson and Castro slid up one spot each and #3 filled with awesome player to be named later, or Rizzo slid up and #4 filled by awesome player to be named later.

 

That would also be nice, but Castro could very easily be a 900 OPS type hitter in his prime and awesome enough in his own right.

 

Would be great. Personally, I don't see him ending up with enough power to hold it down, but it's definitely one of those situations where I'd love to be wrong.

[sneakypower]

#2 can be filled by BJ Upton

[CubColtPacer]

Jersey, out of curiosity, do you want or expect him to be the Cubs #3 hitter going down the line?

 

Ideally they would have better hitters right now who could fit the bill in the middle of the order and allow him to hit somewhere else. Down the line, I see no reason why he couldn't be the type of hitter to rely on everyday in that spot for years and years.

 

If the 2, 3, 4 in 2015 was Jackson, Castro, Rizzo, that could be pretty cool

 

Personally, I'd want to see Jackson and Castro slid up one spot each and #3 filled with awesome player to be named later, or Rizzo slid up and #4 filled by awesome player to be named later.

 

That would also be nice, but Castro could very easily be a 900 OPS type hitter in his prime and awesome enough in his own right.

 

Do you see Castro as a 30+ home run hitter with a decent amount of walks without significantly raising his strikeouts? That is probably what it would take to get to .900, and while I think it's possible for Castro to get there, I don't see it as being very likely. The power will almost certainly improve as he gets into his prime and hopefully some walks will follow, but that's a large jump for him to take.

[SouthSideRyan]

Jersey, out of curiosity, do you want or expect him to be the Cubs #3 hitter going down the line?

 

Ideally they would have better hitters right now who could fit the bill in the middle of the order and allow him to hit somewhere else. Down the line, I see no reason why he couldn't be the type of hitter to rely on everyday in that spot for years and years.

 

If the 2, 3, 4 in 2015 was Jackson, Castro, Rizzo, that could be pretty cool

 

Personally, I'd want to see Jackson and Castro slid up one spot each and #3 filled with awesome player to be named later, or Rizzo slid up and #4 filled by awesome player to be named later.

 

That would also be nice, but Castro could very easily be a 900 OPS type hitter in his prime and awesome enough in his own right.

 

Do you see Castro as a 30+ home run hitter with a decent amount of walks without significantly raising his strikeouts? That is probably what it would take to get to .900, and while I think it's possible for Castro to get there, I don't see it as being very likely. The power will almost certainly improve as he gets into his prime and hopefully some walks will follow, but that's a large jump for him to take.

 

Why couldn't the strikeouts rise in conjunction with a rise in LD%?

[CubColtPacer]

 

That would also be nice, but Castro could very easily be a 900 OPS type hitter in his prime and awesome enough in his own right.

 

Do you see Castro as a 30+ home run hitter with a decent amount of walks without significantly raising his strikeouts? That is probably what it would take to get to .900, and while I think it's possible for Castro to get there, I don't see it as being very likely. The power will almost certainly improve as he gets into his prime and hopefully some walks will follow, but that's a large jump for him to take.

 

Why couldn't the strikeouts rise in conjunction with a rise in LD%?

 

You would expect Castro to lose a little bit of LD% as his rise in power. With a few exceptions, most power hitters are not big line drive hitters. Part of that is structural in the way things are classified-if I'm not way off I think every home run is classified as a fly ball, so those hitters who are hitting 30 home runs are already in a little bit of a hole. And plus the swing change used to generate that sort of power also contributes to a loss of line drives. Plus right now Castro hits a ton of ground balls and his BABIP's have been continually higher than his LD percentage would suggest. That will change as he starts hitting fly balls to get home runs. Of course, those home runs will help inflate his OPS without changing his BABIP as well.

[Geech]

I don't think hitting #3 is causing that, because he's always been and probably always will be an overly aggressive hitter, but I do worry it's not helping. We can sit here and talk about how lineup roles or overrated or irrelevant, but players are probably going to look being handed a spot like that as coming with certain expectations, and in this case those expectations could lead to a very young, overly aggressive hitter to exacerbate some of his worse qualities trying to get things done like he thinks a "#3 hitter should."

 

I think that's pretty dubious. If I had to identify one trait that number three hitters are expected to show, it isn't less patience but more power. He's hardly been swinging for the fences every time up there.

[dew1679666265]

I think that's pretty dubious. If I had to identify one trait that number three hitters are expected to show, it isn't less patience but more power. He's hardly been swinging for the fences every time up there.

 

I see where he's coming from, because a #3 hitter is expected to be a run producer. It's hard to drive lots of guys in if you're drawing a bunch of walks.

[Guest]

He's hitting .276 with the bases empty and .341 with men on base (though more power with bases empty and almost identical OPS).

 

If he were pressing because he was trying to drive in runs batting #3, I'd think the problem would show up vividly with men on base.

 

Next theory.

[KingCubsFan]

He's hitting .276 with the bases empty and .341 with men on base (though more power with bases empty and almost identical OPS).

 

If he were pressing because he was trying to drive in runs batting #3, I'd think the problem would show up vividly with men on base.

 

Next theory.

He's done worse with RISP. What's important is that the patience is nonexistent in both situations. The lack of patience is really the only concern, because that's the only thing he needs to work on as a hitter. I don't doubt he's a .300 hitter no matter where he hits.

[Guest]

He's hitting .276 with the bases empty and .341 with men on base (though more power with bases empty and almost identical OPS).

 

If he were pressing because he was trying to drive in runs batting #3, I'd think the problem would show up vividly with men on base.

 

Next theory.

He's done worse with RISP. What's important is that the patience is nonexistent in both situations. The lack of patience is really the only concern, because that's the only thing he needs to work on as a hitter. I don't doubt he's a .300 hitter no matter where he hits.

Well, the power potential needs to be fulfilled if he's going to be the hitter we hope he will be.

[PriortoTheoIhadWood]

What's the power ceiling consensus? I'm thinking maybe 25.

[KingCubsFan]

He's hitting .276 with the bases empty and .341 with men on base (though more power with bases empty and almost identical OPS).

 

If he were pressing because he was trying to drive in runs batting #3, I'd think the problem would show up vividly with men on base.

 

Next theory.

He's done worse with RISP. What's important is that the patience is nonexistent in both situations. The lack of patience is really the only concern, because that's the only thing he needs to work on as a hitter. I don't doubt he's a .300 hitter no matter where he hits.

Well, the power potential needs to be fulfilled if he's going to be the hitter we hope he will be.

I'd argue that will come with increased patience. Look at him in August and September of last year. His walk rate increased and he hit 7 of his 10 homers over the last two months. If he's not swinging early in the count, he'll get better pitches to drive.

[Sammy Sofa]

I don't think hitting #3 is causing that, because he's always been and probably always will be an overly aggressive hitter, but I do worry it's not helping. We can sit here and talk about how lineup roles or overrated or irrelevant, but players are probably going to look being handed a spot like that as coming with certain expectations, and in this case those expectations could lead to a very young, overly aggressive hitter to exacerbate some of his worse qualities trying to get things done like he thinks a "#3 hitter should."

 

I think that's pretty dubious. If I had to identify one trait that number three hitters are expected to show, it isn't less patience but more power. He's hardly been swinging for the fences every time up there.

 

It's not just a matter of him trying to hit a home run every time he's up there; I think it's just the expectation of generally getting things done or making something happen from that slot in the lineup. Again, I'm not stating this as some kind of fact; I'd just feel more comfortable with such a young and aggressive (and probably still impressionable) not hitting in a spot that carries so much weight, and it's not even one he's likely to hold down.

[seanimal]

i guess my assumption would be that a player with high-ba/low isod would be less likely to slg at a top level. he'll swat at anything close rather than wait for the right one, and that doesn't seem like it would bode well for consistent, high-level power output. just guessing though

[Geech]

It's not just a matter of him trying to hit a home run every time he's up there; I think it's just the expectation of generally getting things done or making something happen from that slot in the lineup. Again, I'm not stating this as some kind of fact; I'd just feel more comfortable with such a young and aggressive (and probably still impressionable) not hitting in a spot that carries so much weight, and it's not even one he's likely to hold down.

 

I don't think it matters one iota. You can make a similar argument for literally every spot in the order. If you hit him 7th or 8th or something he'll want to hit well to prove he belongs at the top of the order. If you hit him first or second he thinks he has to be a sparkplug and get things started. I don't think it's worth a moment of agony.

[PriortoTheoIhadWood]

I don't mind him thinking he has to be a spark plug for the lineup.

[Geech]

The conversation is about whether his place in the lineup is influencing his attitude and causing him to be more aggressive. My point is that if hitting third is making him believe he needs to make things happen and thus resulting in the above, that the same could easily be true for hitting in the top two spots. Try and keep up.

[PriortoTheoIhadWood]

The conversation is about whether his place in the lineup is influencing his attitude and causing him to be more aggressive. My point is that if hitting third is making him believe he needs to make things happen and thus resulting in the above, that the same could easily be true for hitting in the top two spots. Try and keep up.

 

Really? The best you have is repeating a point that's been made multiple times before you made it and then dropping the mic with a "keep up?" Real smarmy...reeeeaal smarmy.

 

MY point was that he did an excellent job, a really excellent job, playing spark plug last year. I'm ancient so I think the third spot should go to a more well rounded and more mature hitter, which is not Castro. I also think it might throw his game off or more likely just isn't his game. Completely understand if it sounds like noise because, well it probably is, but I like him better in the two hole now and for a long time after.

[Geech]

The conversation is about whether his place in the lineup is influencing his attitude and causing him to be more aggressive. My point is that if hitting third is making him believe he needs to make things happen and thus resulting in the above, that the same could easily be true for hitting in the top two spots. Try and keep up.

 

Really? The best you have is repeating a point that's been made multiple times before you made it and then dropping the mic with a "keep up?" Real smarmy...reeeeaal smarmy.

 

MY point was that he did an excellent job, a really excellent job, playing spark plug last year. I'm ancient so I think the third spot should go to a more well rounded and more mature hitter, which is not Castro. I also think it might throw his game off or more likely just isn't his game. Completely understand if it sounds like noise because, well it probably is, but I like him better in the two hole now and for a long time after.

 

First of all, that's not what smarmy means.

 

As to your real point: That's fine, I understand that. I don't care. There's a difference between saying he profiles better as a number two hitter and claiming that hitting third is actually harming his performance or his development.

[PriortoTheoIhadWood]

While also using it incorrectly I also didn't mean it seriously. It's just a fun word, smarmy.

 

There is a difference, and I feel the profile thing is closer to the issue of him as a 3 hitter. I think it forces him to try to be something he's not. That could have some kind of negative effect or it could not, but either way I'm not a fan.

[Sammy Sofa]

As to your real point: That's fine, I understand that. I don't care. There's a difference between saying he profiles better as a number two hitter and claiming that hitting third is actually harming his performance or his development.

 

What if one is saying both?

 

I've tried to make it abundantly clear that I don't think Castro hitting third is somehow critically damaging his approach or setting him up for failure in the long run; my reasons for not wanting him hitting third rest primarily in that I don't think he profiles ideally as a #3 hitter and the Cubs are, despite how good he is, selling themselves short if they want to try and shoehorn him in to that role. My concerns about how the traditional expectations of a #3 hitter might be playing to the more detrimental aspects of his approach at the plate are effectively just window dressing; they're not the main reasons I don't want him hitting there, but they are a reason down the spectrum. Now, I'm not saying this is a sure thing; I could easily be completely wrong and hitting #3 has absolutely nothing with some of the things we're seeing so far this year. Ultimately it's just another reason for me to toss on the heap of reasons why I'd rather see him hitting #2 or even leading off.

[jersey cubs fan]

so I guess that light bulb turned back off for a lot of people

[Sammy Sofa]

"The bulb being on," for me, doesn't mean completely dismissing intangibles; then you're just Meph, and we all know what that leads to. I think it means minimizing them and not letting them dictate one's opinion or analysis of a player. My non-primary opinion about Castro hitting third, that could easily just be completely wrong, is that whether we like it or not players are going to look at certain spots in the lineup as having more importance than others. Hitters look at them differently, pitchers look at them differently, and maybe, just MAYBE, being put in a role that doesn't really suit him is playing to the more flawed aspects of his approach at the plate. It's not completely detrimental to him, it's not causing him to regress or stagnate, but MAYBE you're not maximizing his ability and playing to his strengths by trying to hit him in a spot that, quite frankly, he doesn't profile now or really ever. But ultimately you can subtract any intangible-based theory and still have sound reasoning for not keeping him at #3.

[Gilby]

Okay, I'm sensing a ton of frustration with Starlin's aggressiveness and lack of walks in game threads and other threads, and as a result, I'm getting the feeling that some NSBB posters think this season has been a disappointment thus far for Castro. Don't get me wrong, I get a weird amount of happiness when he takes a walk and would absolutely love to see him do it more. However, don't let that frustration get in the way of realizing what he has done this season.

 

He has improved his base stealing and is on pace for over 40. Despite the low OBP, his OPS currently stands at .770. The biggest story, though, is his play defensively. He has been a plus defender at SS this season, and is on pace for a 4+ WAR season. At age 22 (!!!). All of this is still very exciting.