Reed Johnson: Is he for real?

[dew1679666265]

Playing next to Soriano in left might make me look good defensively and I'm old with bad knees. :yahoo:

 

Reed: fielding percentage - 1.000 in 35 games; UZR - -5.4

 

Soriano: fielding percentage - .961 games; UZR - 2.3

 

Fielding percentage prefers Reed, but Sori has been a much better defender this year according to UZR.

 

That's judging Soriano as a LF vs. Johnson primarily as a CF. I'm relatively certain Reed is a better defensive LF than Soriano.

 

Good point and I should have pointed that out. The primary point was that Soriano's not a horrid defender holding Reed back, though.

[dew1679666265]

the only stat line that's way out of sync with the others is his HRFB%. His BABIP is around .400, and has to come down.

 

That's the key, though, is his BABIP has been through the roof good to this point. I'm no good at neutralizing a guy's numbers to eliminate BABIP influence, but if you drop his BABIP the 65 or so points back to his career average, I think you'll find far more modest numbers. Not terrible, but not the kind of numbers that would lead to a thread wondering if he should be the everyday CF.

[Productive Outs]

i am surprised by Reed Johnson's 2006 season every time i look at his page on fangraphs. 4.5 WAR.

[Sammy Sofa]

It's more the "20 feet" thing. That's goofy.

 

Your right he doesn't "quit" on a ball 20 feet from a wall, he just slows down to a slow trot on anything hit toward a wall so he doesn't get there to crash into the wall and plays it after it hits the ground or the wall.

 

Sure, why not?

[davearm2]

It's more the "20 feet" thing. That's goofy.

 

Your right he doesn't "quit" on a ball 20 feet from a wall, he just slows down to a slow trot on anything hit toward a wall so he doesn't get there to crash into the wall and plays it after it hits the ground or the wall.

 

Sure, why not?

You are confused about why an OF would want to try hard to catch a batted ball on the fly?

[Ding Dong Johnson]

The 20 feet claim is a ridiculous one, so I'll cut that in half for the purposes of this discussion. Chances are he won't be within 10 feet of the wall to catch the ball that is being hit hard toward said wall so I would rather have him turn to make a play off the wall than to try to crash into the wall to make a heroic catch and possibly give up a base or two in addition to injuring himself. You are doing yourself no favors, as an outfielder, if you get too close to the wall on a ball you can't catch.

[Sammy Sofa]

It's more the "20 feet" thing. That's goofy.

 

Your right he doesn't "quit" on a ball 20 feet from a wall, he just slows down to a slow trot on anything hit toward a wall so he doesn't get there to crash into the wall and plays it after it hits the ground or the wall.

 

Sure, why not?

You are confused about why an OF would want to try hard to catch a batted ball on the fly?

 

Not at all. Any player is going to avoid crashing into a wall if they can. And BtB description is ridiculous because he's trying to make it sound like Soriano is acting like he's on the verge of slamming into the wall left and right instead of, y'know, playing a ball off the wall like everyone else does. It's just indicative of the irrational hatred the guy gets; if he's not slamming into the wall or diving for balls every other game he's worthless and a coward.

[CubColtPacer]

It's more the "20 feet" thing. That's goofy.

 

Your right he doesn't "quit" on a ball 20 feet from a wall, he just slows down to a slow trot on anything hit toward a wall so he doesn't get there to crash into the wall and plays it after it hits the ground or the wall.

 

Sure, why not?

You are confused about why an OF would want to try hard to catch a batted ball on the fly?

 

Not at all. Any player is going to avoid crashing into a wall if they can. And BtB description is ridiculous because he's trying to make it sound like Soriano is acting like he's on the verge of slamming into the wall left and right instead of, y'know, playing a ball off the wall like everyone else does. It's just indicative of the irrational hatred the guy gets; if he's not slamming into the wall or diving for balls every other game he's worthless and a coward.

 

Exaggeration aside, Soriano is probably the worst player in the league at going back to the wall on a ball. He does act afraid of the wall, and also has trouble playing angles and jumping at the wall. It's the worst part of his game. Soriano of course also has big parts of his defense that are well above average. His arm is excellent and I tend to think he moves better sideways then most outfielders.

[Sammy Sofa]

Exaggeration aside, Soriano is probably the worst player in the league at going back to the wall on a ball. He does act afraid of the wall, and also has trouble playing angles and jumping at the wall. It's the worst part of his game. Soriano of course also has big parts of his defense that are well above average. His arm is excellent and I tend to think he moves better sideways then most outfielders.

 

Oh, I totally agree he's afraid of the wall. I understand why he is; he's not really an OF and he doesn't want to get hurt. It's easily the worst part of his OF defense, as you said. I just am always amused at how it's blown out of proportion and seemingly has turned into this thing where people think he's just garbage across the board out there.

[SouthSideRyan]

Should've kept him in CF.

[davearm2]

It's more the "20 feet" thing. That's goofy.

 

Your right he doesn't "quit" on a ball 20 feet from a wall, he just slows down to a slow trot on anything hit toward a wall so he doesn't get there to crash into the wall and plays it after it hits the ground or the wall.

 

Sure, why not?

You are confused about why an OF would want to try hard to catch a batted ball on the fly?

 

Not at all. Any player is going to avoid crashing into a wall if they can. And BtB description is ridiculous because he's trying to make it sound like Soriano is acting like he's on the verge of slamming into the wall left and right instead of, y'know, playing a ball off the wall like everyone else does. It's just indicative of the irrational hatred the guy gets; if he's not slamming into the wall or diving for balls every other game he's worthless and a coward.

Wrong. Not all players avoid crashing into a wall when they can. In fact if the options are, a) crash into the wall and make the catch, or b) avoid the crash and concede a double, just about every other OF will choose a). Soriano chooses b).

 

It goes beyond that, though. Just the other day Soriano was thrown out at home trying to score from first on a double, after kinda trotting his way between second and third.

 

Sure the reaction of some fans is over the top, but it's easy to see where it comes from, since the dude is commonly giving less than 100% effort. He (and even the Cubs) may play it off as preventing injury, but it's still maddening to watch.

[XZero771679666304]

Wrong. Not all players avoid crashing into a wall when they can. In fact if the options are, a) crash into the wall and make the catch, or b) avoid the crash and concede a double, just about every other OF will choose a). Soriano chooses b).

 

 

This nonsense. Outfielders pull up short of the wall all the time, more often than not. And there's another option: c) Crash into the wall, missing the catch, possibly giving the runner an extra base. There's no way to know the ratio, but I'd bet the catch is missed when crashing into the wall just as often as it is made.

 

Soriano is absolutely brutal around the wall and he loafs quite a bit, but the notion that "just about every other OF" will crash into the wall when given the chance is utter hogwash contrived to make him seem even worse.

[Sammy Sofa]

Wrong. Not all players avoid crashing into a wall when they can. In fact if the options are, a) crash into the wall and make the catch, or b) avoid the crash and concede a double, just about every other OF will choose a). Soriano chooses b).

 

 

This nonsense. Outfielders pull up short of the wall all the time, more often than not. And there's another option: c) Crash into the wall, missing the catch, possibly giving the runner an extra base. There's no way to know the ratio, but I'd bet the catch is missed when crashing into the wall just as often as it is made.

 

Soriano is absolutely brutal around the wall and he loafs quite a bit, but the notion that "just about every other OF" will crash into the wall when given the chance is utter hogwash contrived to make him seem even worse.

 

Yeah, I was wondering what game dave had been watching. Sounds pretty thrilling. Those guys probably practice bunting every day, too.

[davearm2]

Wrong. Not all players avoid crashing into a wall when they can. In fact if the options are, a) crash into the wall and make the catch, or b) avoid the crash and concede a double, just about every other OF will choose a). Soriano chooses b).

 

 

This nonsense. Outfielders pull up short of the wall all the time, more often than not. And there's another option: c) Crash into the wall, missing the catch, possibly giving the runner an extra base. There's no way to know the ratio, but I'd bet the catch is missed when crashing into the wall just as often as it is made.

 

Soriano is absolutely brutal around the wall and he loafs quite a bit, but the notion that "just about every other OF" will crash into the wall when given the chance is utter hogwash contrived to make him seem even worse.

Seriously? You see a lot of OFs giving up on balls they have a chance to catch? I sure don't.

[Sammy Sofa]

Then you're not watching a lot of baseball. A 2% chance of making a catch diving into the wall is still chance. Most guys opt not to take that chance.

[Guest]

If everyone was so willing to crash into walls(never mind brick walls), then no one would make a big deal out of Aaron Rowand eating chain as often as he does.

[davearm2]

Then you're not watching a lot of baseball. A 2% chance of making a catch diving into the wall is still chance. Most guys opt not to take that chance.

We're not talking about a 2% chance. And we're also not talking about "diving" into the wall.

 

We're talking about running back fullspeed, gaining body control, leaping to catch the ball, and bracing for impact. OFs do that routinely (or at least attempt it). Soriano attempts it almost never. Heck he flunks the running fullspeed part most of the time, even when there's no wall in the equation.

[Sammy Sofa]

Then you're not watching a lot of baseball. A 2% chance of making a catch diving into the wall is still chance. Most guys opt not to take that chance.

We're not talking about a 2% chance. And we're also not talking about "diving" into the wall.

 

We're talking about running back fullspeed, gaining body control, leaping to catch the ball, and bracing for impact. OFs do that routinely (or at least attempt it). Soriano attempts it almost never. Heck he flunks the running fullspeed part most of the time, even when there's no wall in the equation.

 

Yes, because he's not good at managing the wall, we've already established that. I have no idea why you'd want someone like that trying what you just described. You want him to "routinely attempt" something he's terrible at? Seems weird.

 

And no, OF across baseball do not "routinely" do that. Most will opt to play it off the wall. You're conflating Web Gems with everyday baseball.

Edited June 28, 2011 by Sammy Sofa

[jersey cubs fan]

I would venture a guess that most OF who regularly bump into walls to make catches play virtually all of their games with non-brick walls.

[XZero771679666304]

Wrong. Not all players avoid crashing into a wall when they can. In fact if the options are, a) crash into the wall and make the catch, or b) avoid the crash and concede a double, just about every other OF will choose a). Soriano chooses b).

 

 

This nonsense. Outfielders pull up short of the wall all the time, more often than not. And there's another option: c) Crash into the wall, missing the catch, possibly giving the runner an extra base. There's no way to know the ratio, but I'd bet the catch is missed when crashing into the wall just as often as it is made.

 

Soriano is absolutely brutal around the wall and he loafs quite a bit, but the notion that "just about every other OF" will crash into the wall when given the chance is utter hogwash contrived to make him seem even worse.

Seriously? You see a lot of OFs giving up on balls they have a chance to catch? I sure don't.

 

Then you're not paying attention. If outfielders routinely went into the wall on any ball they had a chance to catch, you'd see a lot more triples. It'd look like pinball out there. A good percentage of the time players play the ball off the wall, they would have had some chance of catching if they went full bore into the wall. Now the deciding factor is how good a chance do they have, and are they better served playing the hop. Most often the chances aren't good, and playing the hop is the prudent thing to do.

 

We remember the crash into the wall catches, but just as often the crashing OF misses the catch, and more often we just see the ball played off the wall. If OFs went into the wall every time they felt they had even an outside chance at catching it, we'd bee seeing a lot more ugly baseball.

 

This isn't a defense of Soriano, I just take exception to the ridiculous notion that the overwhelming majority of OFs go into the wall anytime they feel they have any kind of shot at catching the ball. That's just trying to make Sori look even worse, and it isn't remotely true.

[davearm2]

Then you're not watching a lot of baseball. A 2% chance of making a catch diving into the wall is still chance. Most guys opt not to take that chance.

We're not talking about a 2% chance. And we're also not talking about "diving" into the wall.

 

We're talking about running back fullspeed, gaining body control, leaping to catch the ball, and bracing for impact. OFs do that routinely (or at least attempt it). Soriano attempts it almost never. Heck he flunks the running fullspeed part most of the time, even when there's no wall in the equation.

 

Yes, because he's not good at managing the wall, we've already established that. I have no idea why you'd want someone like that trying what you just described. You want him to "routinely attempt" something he's terrible at? Seems weird.

I want him to routinely attempt to try his hardest to catch anything hit in his direction.

 

Instead what I see is a guy that gives up quickly and is content to trot after the ball and pick it up when it stops rolling.

[Sammy Sofa]

Then you're not watching a lot of baseball. A 2% chance of making a catch diving into the wall is still chance. Most guys opt not to take that chance.

We're not talking about a 2% chance. And we're also not talking about "diving" into the wall.

 

We're talking about running back fullspeed, gaining body control, leaping to catch the ball, and bracing for impact. OFs do that routinely (or at least attempt it). Soriano attempts it almost never. Heck he flunks the running fullspeed part most of the time, even when there's no wall in the equation.

 

Yes, because he's not good at managing the wall, we've already established that. I have no idea why you'd want someone like that trying what you just described. You want him to "routinely attempt" something he's terrible at? Seems weird.

I want him to routinely attempt to try his hardest to catch anything hit in his direction.

 

Instead what I see is a guy that gives up quickly and is content to trot after the ball and pick it up when it stops rolling.

 

Then your expectations are absurd. Why you would want a player with glaring OF weakness attempting whenever possible basically the most difficult thing an OF can do makes absolutely no sense to me. It would be one thing if Soriano was this talented defensive whiz who was just lazy, but he's not. "Trying hard" isn't automatically a good thing if it means trying for jumping and diving catches means you're giving up unnecessary doubles and triples.

 

I mean, your argument is essentially "hey, guy who isn't a very good OF...I want you to be regularly BETTER than most OF by routinely attempting things that most guys actually don't routinely attempt (even though I'm convinced they do) and that are almost always beyond the realm of your defensive ability."

Edited June 28, 2011 by Sammy Sofa

[davearm2]

Wrong. Not all players avoid crashing into a wall when they can. In fact if the options are, a) crash into the wall and make the catch, or b) avoid the crash and concede a double, just about every other OF will choose a). Soriano chooses b).

 

 

This nonsense. Outfielders pull up short of the wall all the time, more often than not. And there's another option: c) Crash into the wall, missing the catch, possibly giving the runner an extra base. There's no way to know the ratio, but I'd bet the catch is missed when crashing into the wall just as often as it is made.

 

Soriano is absolutely brutal around the wall and he loafs quite a bit, but the notion that "just about every other OF" will crash into the wall when given the chance is utter hogwash contrived to make him seem even worse.

Seriously? You see a lot of OFs giving up on balls they have a chance to catch? I sure don't.

 

Then you're not paying attention. If outfielders routinely went into the wall on any ball they had a chance to catch, you'd see a lot more triples. It'd look like pinball out there. A good percentage of the time players play the ball off the wall, they would have had some chance of catching if they went full bore into the wall. Now the deciding factor is how good a chance do they have, and are they better served playing the hop. Most often the chances aren't good, and playing the hop is the prudent thing to do.

 

We remember the crash into the wall catches, but just as often the crashing OF misses the catch, and more often we just see the ball played off the wall. If OFs went into the wall every time they felt they had even an outside chance at catching it, we'd bee seeing a lot more ugly baseball.

 

This isn't a defense of Soriano, I just take exception to the ridiculous notion that the overwhelming majority of OFs go into the wall anytime they feel they have any kind of shot at catching the ball. That's just trying to make Sori look even worse, and it isn't remotely true.

Don't make it so black and white. Of course OFs have to do some split-second calculating and decide whether the chance of catching the ball justifies the chance of missing it and adding an extra base.

 

My point is that Soriano never even does that math, because he seems unwilling to make contact with the wall regardless of the chances of catching the ball. So balls that other guys would go for, and half the time catch, he gives up on.

[jersey cubs fan]

If there's one thing that has held back this Cubs team for decades, it's a lack of tryers.

[davearm2]

Then you're not watching a lot of baseball. A 2% chance of making a catch diving into the wall is still chance. Most guys opt not to take that chance.

We're not talking about a 2% chance. And we're also not talking about "diving" into the wall.

 

We're talking about running back fullspeed, gaining body control, leaping to catch the ball, and bracing for impact. OFs do that routinely (or at least attempt it). Soriano attempts it almost never. Heck he flunks the running fullspeed part most of the time, even when there's no wall in the equation.

 

Yes, because he's not good at managing the wall, we've already established that. I have no idea why you'd want someone like that trying what you just described. You want him to "routinely attempt" something he's terrible at? Seems weird.

I want him to routinely attempt to try his hardest to catch anything hit in his direction.

 

Instead what I see is a guy that gives up quickly and is content to trot after the ball and pick it up when it stops rolling.

 

Then your expectations are absurd. Why you would want a player with glaring OF weakness attempting whenever possible basically the most difficult thing an OF can do makes absolutely no sense to me. It would be one thing if Soriano was this talented defensive whiz who was just lazy, but he's not. "Trying hard" isn't automatically a good thing if it means trying for jumping and diving catches means you're giving up unnecessary doubles and triples.

I can certainly live with Soriano not being a defensive whiz.

 

It's the lazy I can't live with.

 

He displays both.