Ravech: Doesnt expect to see Hendry next year

[Brett]

btw - in his opening press conference and several times since then, Ricketts has called out Boston as the example he wants to use for building the franchise.

 

Anytime he wants to start would be great with me

 

Forget building like the Red Sox. Just buy everyone under Epstein...

[Guest]

btw - in his opening press conference and several times since then, Ricketts has called out Boston as the example he wants to use for building the franchise.

Too bad the Cubs minor league system has been broke for some time.

 

The prospects to choose from are pretty bleak. They have a LONG way to go to get to the Red Sox level.

 

Oh...and some good talent was shipped for Garza (who's been pretty average so far).

 

Hendry gone may help but I am not a fan of how Ricketts wants to improve this team. They need free agents at this point. Not rookies.

 

Not a single word of this post is accurate

Then break it down and show me where the prospects are outside Jackson and Vitters (who isn't doing much).

 

Show me how Garza isn't just pitching average overall. Was Archer not one of the top Cubs prospects?

 

Tell me why Ricketts saying they don't need Fielder or Albert at 1st next year.

 

 

Hendry gone won't help the Cubs?

Why are rookies going to make the Cubs better going forward? Have you been impressed with guys outside Barney as everyday players?

 

I can't navigate baseball reference like some. I remember TT posted that Garza was top-3 in WAR as of a couple weeks ago. Archer is struggling mightily with what he'd been struggling with until he put it together all of a sudden last year - he's walking everybody, and it looks like we sold damn high on him. Meanwhile, Garza is one of the best pitchers in baseball and cost-controlled for 3 of his prime years.

 

McNutt, Ha, Szczur round out the top 5. With Whitenack on the periphery (and on the mend) and a pretty awesome draft coming in. Recently, we've produced Marmol, Marshall, Theriot and Soto from our farm. It's been right about average.

 

When did Ricketts say we didn't need Pujols or Fielder next year? You're making that up.

 

We need to maintain a good balance between acquiring free agents and developing talent from within. It sounds like you're advocating selling prospects for guys who can help right now. In a completely lost year. Just no.

 

How's that?

I don't necessarily agree with the person you are debating, but the consensus on the farm system is that there is not a difference maker in the entire system. WAR is a flawed statistic, however, once the temps heat up and Garza gives up long balls his WAR is likely to sink like a stone. Saying Garza is cost controlled is not really true either, he's due for big, big raises in arbitration although not as big as he'd get in the FA market. Garza is a good pitcher, but he doesn't seem to fit the circumstances of rebuilding.

 

I think trading for Garza wasn't smart given the situation the Cubs are in. If they were on the precipice of great things ala 2003 (or so we thought) it might be a different matter

[SouthSideRyan]

I don't necessarily agree with the person you are debating, but the consensus on the farm system is that there is not a difference maker in the entire system. WAR is a flawed statistic, however, once the temps heat up and Garza gives up long balls his WAR is likely to sink like a stone. Saying Garza is cost controlled is not really true either, he's due for big, big raises in arbitration although not as big as he'd get in the FA market. Garza is a good pitcher, but he doesn't seem to fit the circumstances of rebuilding.

 

Won't other pitchers be pitching in the heat and giving up HRs? Saying he is cost controlled means exactly that he won't be getting what he'd get in a FA market. I don't understand why acquiring a young very good starter for 3 seasons doesn't fall in line with any team's strategy except maybe the Astros.

[Sammy Sofa]

I don't necessarily agree with the person you are debating, but the consensus on the farm system is that there is not a difference maker in the entire system. WAR is a flawed statistic, however, once the temps heat up and Garza gives up long balls his WAR is likely to sink like a stone. Saying Garza is cost controlled is not really true either, he's due for big, big raises in arbitration although not as big as he'd get in the FA market. Garza is a good pitcher, but he doesn't seem to fit the circumstances of rebuilding.

 

I think trading for Garza wasn't smart given the situation the Cubs are in. If they were on the precipice of great things ala 2003 (or so we thought) it might be a different matter

 

He fits exactly into what the Cubs need. A team the size of the Cubs doesn't need to go into full rebuilding mode ever. It's not an either/or proposition of only going with players developed internally or only improving via trade/FA. Garza's trade was a smart move precisely because it looks to the future and not just this year or the next.

[Guest]

Garza's home run rate is going to have a hard time spiking unless his batted ball types change dramatically. And even if he is literally half as good as he's been so far for the rest of his tenure, he's still a bargain for the remainder of his arbitration years, and exactly the type of player any team should want to acquire, especially a team like the Cubs that has a larger than average payroll.

[Guest]

I don't necessarily agree with the person you are debating, but the consensus on the farm system is that there is not a difference maker in the entire system. WAR is a flawed statistic, however, once the temps heat up and Garza gives up long balls his WAR is likely to sink like a stone. Saying Garza is cost controlled is not really true either, he's due for big, big raises in arbitration although not as big as he'd get in the FA market. Garza is a good pitcher, but he doesn't seem to fit the circumstances of rebuilding.

 

Won't other pitchers be pitching in the heat and giving up HRs? Saying he is cost controlled means exactly that he won't be getting what he'd get in a FA market. I don't understand why acquiring a young very good starter for 3 seasons doesn't fall in line with any team's strategy except maybe the Astros.

Other pitchers won't be pitching in Wrigley as often. Pre-arbitration money and arbitration money are very different. It's one of the big reasons why Tampa traded him.

 

I think Garza is an ok pitcher but the Cubs gave up a lot of value (if only in perception before the trade) to get him at a time when they have to be nearing the bottom in terms of major league talent and ability to maneuver at the major league level.

[Sammy Sofa]

And simply coming in a throwing a ton of cash at a bunch of FAs might make some people feel better for a while, but it's the sort of nearsighted, reactionary thing a fan would do if they were in charge. It's the sort of thing that got us in this mess. We want this thing turned around in a season or two, but that's just not feasible, particularly given the state of affairs when they took over.

 

Actually, it's very feasible given the FA available after this season and 2012. There's nothing wrong with a big money team like the Cubs "throwing cash" at FA. The key is usually throwing it at the right FA instead of usually overpaying for middling talent.

 

Like Julio Lugo, John Lackey, JD Drew and Marco Scutaro?

 

The Cubs, like the Red Sox, can afford the hit of guys like that. The key is also at least once in a while getting the slam dunk of a David Ortiz and a Manny Ramirez while also developing players internally that can be at least useful everyday starters.

[Guest]

Garza's home run rate is going to have a hard time spiking unless his batted ball types change dramatically.

We'll see. He's so far away from career norms I expect it will get a lot worse.

[SouthSideRyan]

If you think Garza is an OK pitcher, then there's no need to continue the discussion. We differ greatly on our view of his abilites.

[Sammy Sofa]

Garza's home run rate is going to have a hard time spiking unless his batted ball types change dramatically.

We'll see. He's so far away from career norms I expect it will get a lot worse.

 

And you think that's primarily due to it being a cold/mild spring/summer and simply more hot weather is going to bring his numbers crashing down?

[Guest]

Garza's home run rate is going to have a hard time spiking unless his batted ball types change dramatically.

We'll see. He's so far away from career norms I expect it will get a lot worse.

 

And you think that's primarily due to it being a cold/mild spring/summer and simply more hot weather is going to bring his numbers crashing down?

Just look at his data on fangraphs.

[SouthSideRyan]

Garza's home run rate is going to have a hard time spiking unless his batted ball types change dramatically.

We'll see. He's so far away from career norms I expect it will get a lot worse.

 

And you think that's primarily due to it being a cold/mild spring/summer and simply more hot weather is going to bring his numbers crashing down?

Just look at his data on fangraphs.

 

You think it's the cold weather that's causing such a turnaround in GB/FB?

[Sammy Sofa]

Garza's home run rate is going to have a hard time spiking unless his batted ball types change dramatically.

We'll see. He's so far away from career norms I expect it will get a lot worse.

 

And you think that's primarily due to it being a cold/mild spring/summer and simply more hot weather is going to bring his numbers crashing down?

Just look at his data on fangraphs.

 

I did. You think that his data can be attributed almost totally to the weather?

[Guest]

Garza's home run rate is going to have a hard time spiking unless his batted ball types change dramatically.

We'll see. He's so far away from career norms I expect it will get a lot worse.

 

And you think that's primarily due to it being a cold/mild spring/summer and simply more hot weather is going to bring his numbers crashing down?

Just look at his data on fangraphs.

 

You think it's the cold weather that's causing such a turnaround in GB/FB?

No, I think it is mostly a sample size issue.

 

I'm also mostly done with this debate. He's a decent pitcher who not a great pitcher and I don't think the Cubs should have traded for, that's my opinion.

[CubColtPacer]

 

And you think that's primarily due to it being a cold/mild spring/summer and simply more hot weather is going to bring his numbers crashing down?

Just look at his data on fangraphs.

 

You think it's the cold weather that's causing such a turnaround in GB/FB?

No, I think it is mostly a sample size issue.

 

I'm also mostly done with this debate. He's a decent pitcher who not a great pitcher and I don't think the Cubs should have traded for, that's my opinion.

 

What about the fact that he's only throwing fastballs 55% of the time instead of over 70% like he did the last 3 years in Tampa? Garza's using his changeup and slider a lot more than he used to and that's causing more strikeouts and ground balls. All those numbers will probably normalize a little bit (including home runs), but Garza's numbers aren't just a sample size issue. He's completely changed his pitch selection on the mound.

[Guest]

His pitch selection helped land him on the dl list. Lets see how the rest of the year goes.

[SouthSideRyan]

I think the weather landed him on the DL.

[sneakypower]

Why on earth would we look to Toronto as a model?

 

We've already put Wilken to good use, so there's that Toronto connection. Can't say I know much about Alex Anthopoulos and how he runs the team, aside from shedding Vernon Wells' contract and getting reasonably good returns on some trades.

 

*Shrug*

the Bautista extension looks like an incredible steal at this point, and they do the Tampa thing of smartly exploiting RPs for a year or two and letting them walk for firsts

 

Actually, it's very feasible given the FA available after this season and 2012. There's nothing wrong with a big money team like the Cubs "throwing cash" at FA. The key is usually throwing it at the right FA instead of usually overpaying for middling talent.

which is what i would argue the Red Sox biggest problem has been, under Theo's administration

[Sammy Sofa]

Actually, it's very feasible given the FA available after this season and 2012. There's nothing wrong with a big money team like the Cubs "throwing cash" at FA. The key is usually throwing it at the right FA instead of usually overpaying for middling talent.

which is what i would argue the Red Sox biggest problem has been, under Theo's administration

 

Well, no team is going to escape that trap. The Red Sox have been able to counter that with a combination of developing talent like Youkilis and Pedroia, having an eye for signing tent-pole FA like Manny (I know he was signed before Theo became the GM) and Ortiz and making trades for guys like Gonzalez. That's what a skilled FO can do for a team, and that's how a team avoids being bogged down by middling FA signings.

[sneakypower]

i have admiration for the way their FO does business, but they got so unbelievably lucky with Youkilis and especially Ortiz, namely in the way they somehow happened upon prolific power strokes

 

Ortiz was signed to be [expletive] Jeremy Giambi's backup, so you'll excuse me if i only award them partial credit for that one; still, i'll concede you can't strike gold like that when you play it safe with the Reed Johnsons of the world all the time

[SouthSideRyan]

Ortiz hit for decent power his last couple years in Minnesota, Tom Kelly just hated him and he struggled with injuries.

 

In general I don't care, but he did have a positive PED test in Boston as well.

[Sammy Sofa]

i have admiration for the way their FO does business, but they got so unbelievably lucky with Youkilis and especially Ortiz, namely in the way they somehow happened upon prolific power strokes

 

Youk definitely turned into something more than what he was projected to be, but he was still a valued (by the right kind of people) player when he was drafted. Beane was all about getting him until the Red Sox swooped him in and snatched him earlier than he was projected to be drafted, namely because of their pseudo-Moneyball approach to developing talent combined with enough smart signings/trades.

 

Ortiz was signed to be [expletive] Jeremy Giambi's backup, so you'll excuse me if i only award them partial credit for that one; still, i'll concede you can't strike gold like that when you play it safe with the Reed Johnsons of the world all the time

 

Right, Ortiz was a very, very lucky signing, and the Cubs aren't without their luck as well (at least when it comes to trades, as with Aramis and Lee). The big difference is the big picture. Sure, the Cubs struck gold with Aramis, but there wasn't their equivalent of Manny to go along with it, plus they were bogged down by a bunch of middle tier FA and a lack of homegrown talent outside of the pitching staff.

[dew1679666265]

Then break it down and show me where the prospects are outside Jackson and Vitters (who isn't doing much).

 

Trey McNutt is the best pitching prospect in the system, has the ceiling of a front line starter (though probably not an ace) and is currently pitching in AA. He's had blister issues this year or else he might be in the majors now or soon.

 

Matt Szczur is a 2010 draftee who is currently tearing the cover off the ball in A-ball, but he was a college draftee (out of UConn) and is expected to rise quickly through the system. Could be up sometime next year if he adjusts to callups well.

 

DJ LeMahieu is already up, probably a bit too early but he has the upside of being a quality second baseman. Robert Whitenack has made some huge strides since being drafted (in 2009 I think?) and was flying up the system until he got hurt in AA. Then there's also Vitters, who could boom or bust, and Brett Jackson who could be up later this year or next season.

 

As Beertown said, there are other impressive guys in single A and guys with interesting upsides in AA. We also had a very good draft and have shown the ability to scout well internationally. The system is probably middle of the pack right now but is improving consistently.

 

Show me how Garza isn't just pitching average overall. Was Archer not one of the top Cubs prospects?

 

There's been a lot of talk about Garza in this thread now, but nobody's posted his numbers - so I will. He has an ERA of 3.84 (best since 2008), FIP of 2.30 and xFIP of 2.76. He's striking out 10.29 batters per nine innings and is giving up 0.27 HR/9. He's inducing more groundballs than he ever has in his career (48.9%) as well. He's walking more than he has since 2006 (3.56) but he's been very unlucky with balls hit in play (.349 BABIP). He's been worth 2.3 wins this season.

 

If he can continue to produce the numbers and peripherals he's started the year with, it'll mean he's turned the corner and is now the ace the Cubs hoped they were getting when they dealt Lee, Archer and Guyer for him.

[Guest]

And simply coming in a throwing a ton of cash at a bunch of FAs might make some people feel better for a while, but it's the sort of nearsighted, reactionary thing a fan would do if they were in charge. It's the sort of thing that got us in this mess. We want this thing turned around in a season or two, but that's just not feasible, particularly given the state of affairs when they took over.

 

Actually, it's very feasible given the FA available after this season and 2012. There's nothing wrong with a big money team like the Cubs "throwing cash" at FA. The key is usually throwing it at the right FA instead of usually overpaying for middling talent.

 

Like Julio Lugo, John Lackey, JD Drew and Marco Scutaro?

 

The Cubs, like the Red Sox, can afford the hit of guys like that. The key is also at least once in a while getting the slam dunk of a David Ortiz and a Manny Ramirez while also developing players internally that can be at least useful everyday starters.

 

And also having young talent to trade away for stars a la Beckett and Gonzalez.

 

ETA: Never mind, you mentioned Adrian Gonzalez later. Admittedly the Cubs did that with Garza but the trade has helped cripple their farm system.

[SouthSideRyan]

Nitpick, Szczur was From Villanova