2012 Draft Discussion

[davell]

We're working Correa out today at Wrigley.

[iowahawkeyes89]

Hmm...interesting, I'll be very surprised if he's still on the board at 6.

[davell]

I have asked everyone whether or not Giolito's going to throw off a mound before the draft and no one's answered, other than KG said it doesn't look like it. If that's the case and if his pricetag IS 5 mill or so, I hate to say it, but I think I have to pass, at this point. Maybe if his medicals look totally clear? I really want us to draft him, but I find it hard to do so, if we've got nothing concrete to go on and his price tag is high enough that it's going to make us take 2-3 seniors early on just to sign him.

 

I guess I'm saying Zimmer/Almora/Fried/Zunino(obviously anyone else we're thinking is top 9, just don't see them getting to us)+regular picks made at 43,56,67, and 101 is > unsure Giolito+lesser picks made with at least 2 of those selections.

[Cubswin11]

I have asked everyone whether or not Giolito's going to throw off a mound before the draft and no one's answered, other than KG said it doesn't look like it. If that's the case and if his pricetag IS 5 mill or so, I hate to say it, but I think I have to pass, at this point. Maybe if his medicals look totally clear? I really want us to draft him, but I find it hard to do so, if we've got nothing concrete to go on and his price tag is high enough that it's going to make us take 2-3 seniors early on just to sign him.

 

I guess I'm saying Zimmer/Almora/Fried/Zunino(obviously anyone else we're thinking is top 9, just don't see them getting to us)+regular picks made at 43,56,67, and 101 is > unsure Giolito+lesser picks made with at least 2 of those selections.

When was the last time Giolito pitched off a mound and was he looking good? Also was there ever an official injury he was diagnosed with? If, and that's a big if, it were to be at most TJS and nothing wrong in his shoulder area I'd be willing to take the risk on picking him at 6 with what I've read on him.

[El Duderino]

KG says the chances of Giolito going to UCLA are very good.

[davell]

He hasn't pitched off a mound since he's been hurt. He's had a throwing session and it doesn't look like he's throwing off a mound for teams prior to the draft. Granted, teams have his medicals in front of him, but that's all they're going off of. And there have been some rumors that certain teams have more info than others, regarding him. Again, just rumors, and I'm not even sure it's legal to withhold info, if a team requests it anyway.

 

My problem though, is the possible pricetag. If he wants 5 mill, that's around 1.400 mill we're going to have to underslot other picks, assuming we take the penalty and go over budget by 5% or less. So, is he worth taking and ALSO taking lesser talent than we could get, at 43 and 67, for instance? I hate saying it, but I think it's too much of a risk, unless his pricetag falls more in line with slot, or just a tad above.

[craig]

I can't see much point in spending $5M on a kid with a bad elbow. There are some *very* good prospects who will be signable at or below slot and who are healthy. I'd be pretty reluctant to pretty much blow the draft on a HS pitcher with arm questions. Guys who have elbow problems at one point often seem to have them again later.

 

That said, it does perhaps speak to how confident he must be in his health if he were to be still demanding superslot. To push back his pro earnings by 3 years, when he could perhaps have $3 million in the bank, pretty dumb to do that unless you're VERY confident that you'll be able to stay healthy for your next shot at the draft.

 

A rather poor business decision, I'd say, but that's for him and his family and advisor to determine.

[davell]

It may be his dad holding teams hostage here. The rumors has been San Diego is his landing spot. Maybe he takes slot at 7, but tells everyone else he wants much more? No clue. His dad was an actor/producer at one point. It doesn't appear as if they're needing money anyway.

[Guest]

http://www.baseballamerica.com/online/draft/news/2012/2613449.html

 

PEER REVIEW

Baseball America posed this question to every amateur scout we could track down: Who is the best current scouting director? We allowed scouts to list up to three choices (in no particular order), and of the 276 votes we got back, here are the scouting directors who showed up on the most ballots:

32.6% Tim Wilken, Cubs

29.7% R.J. Harrison, Rays

26.8% Stan Meek, Marlins

26.4% Marti Wolever, Phillies

20.3% Damon Oppenheimer, Yankees

 

It's pretty much a puff piece on Wilken but here are a few of the most interesting excerpts:

 

Now, Wilken passes his depth of knowledge on to his scouts. Every scouting director works with his scouts differently and has his own methods for managing them, both in teaching them how to develop an eye for talent and managing them as employees.

 

"I try to keep things just right, and just right means not calling too much," Wilken said. "There's got to be a sense of being independent and letting people be able to work by themselves and not being over their shoulder and not micromanaging. It's a very simple approach that I've had, but it's just to treat people the way that you would like to be treated."

 

That's easier with a veteran scouting staff, which Wilken largely has with the Cubs. But he also has three first-year scouts, so he has spent more time with them to help them learn the ropes.

 

"He's made a point of being out with me and seeing my guys and talking with me about how things play out," said Tom Myers, who spent five years in the minor leagues and was a college coach before getting into scouting. "And then, as a person, he's always asking me questions. The interaction has been outstanding. Right from the get-go, he wanted to know about me. He wanted to learn my background and about my family. It's been nice that I can interact with him and feel comfortable, not just as my boss, but more like a teammate. I'm part of a team and he's been my teammate since day one."

 

That's a key point, because ultimately a scouting director is only as good as his scouts. They all need to know and share in the team's overarching philosophy, and they have to have a feeling of mutual trust. The scouting director will be the one making the final decisions on draft day and will ultimately be responsible for the picks, but he can't see everyone.

 

Scouting directors are accustomed to change, though. Wilken has been scouting for 33 years and can remember when he had to find pay phones to check in with the front office, subscribe to newspapers from around the country to keep up with college players and navigate to remote fields or players' homes with unwieldy maps and dead reckoning. He has an old-school mentality, but he's also able to adapt. He has a new item in his bag this year, for example: A video camera that he stores in a Crown Royal pouch.

 

The Cubs are building a video library of the top high school and college players under the direction of new president Theo Epstein, something that would have been unwieldy 10 years ago and nearly impossible 20 years ago. Now scouts can film the video, watch it in their hotel rooms and upload it to the home office.

[Guest]

KG says the chances of Giolito going to UCLA are very good.

 

Not getting my hopes up that he makes it to Westwood.

[Guest]

Nothing earth shattering from Carrie Muskat: http://muskat.mlblogs.com/2012/05/30/530-cubs-prep-for-mondays-draft/

[toonsterwu]

If the draft goes Appel/Buxton/Correa/Gausman (Callis' order in an article over at masnsports), and if KC takes Zimmer at 5 (assuming the talk of them and a college arm still holds) ... I still have a tough time passing on Zunino at 6. I can see a case for Fried there.

 

Don't know who my preference would be if the options are Zunino, Giolito, Fried, Almora, eteceteras.

[Guest]

I'd go Zunino over Almora in that situation but I can see the case for either.

 

I think Fried is below those two and Giolito is too risky unless you know his contract demands.

[Guest]

And before the opening day of the draft arrives, the Cubs expect to work out up to 40 draft-eligible players at Wrigley Field, also putting them through an interview process. As reported by ESPNChicago.com’s Bruce Levine earlier Wednesday, one of those players will be 17-year-old shortstop Carlos Correa of Puerto Rico.

 

The Cubs are already well versed in what guys like Correa can do on the field, but meting with them is also an important part of the evaluation process.

 

“It was something that Theo and I started doing back in Boston about seven years ago where he and I, either we went to see the player ourselves to meet with them or we brought them into Boston and now Chicago to ask some very pointed questions,” MeLeod said. “Any time you make a selection it’s a significant investment not only in money but in the organization. You only get one chance per round.”

 

http://espn.go.com/blog/chicago/cubs/post/_/id/10574/quick-draft-impact-may-be-limited-for-cubs?utm_source=dlvr.it&utm_medium=twitter

[Vinestal]

it seems like a lot of what's going to be availible are high floor low ceiling players. It's kind of dissapointing if they go that route. We have plenty of those guys in our system already. I'm tired of getting guys who are going to wind up as utility infielders if they even sniff the majors. I realize it's hard to pick who will become stars but it seems like our scouting department has done a lousy job in the recent past. I realize we might have been under budget restraints and that the draft has changed with the rule changes this year, but I really wish we could get some players who's ceiling isn't backup catcher or utility infileder . McLeod has been quoted as saying they want to find impact guys, our system aside from some of last years guys certainly lack that. Who's gonna be availible that has the potential to be an big bat or a ToR pitcher? I almost wish they'd just not sign the 6th pick and save it for next year if there's not going to be a potential star there.

[Guest]

it seems like a lot of what's going to be availible are high floor low ceiling players. It's kind of dissapointing if they go that route. We have plenty of those guys in our system already. I'm tired of getting guys who are going to wind up as utility infielders if they even sniff the majors. I realize it's hard to pick who will become stars but it seems like our scouting department has done a lousy job in the recent past. I realize we might have been under budget restraints and that the draft has changed with the rule changes this year, but I really wish we could get some players who's ceiling isn't backup catcher or utility infileder . McLeod has been quoted as saying they want to find impact guys, our system aside from some of last years guys certainly lack that. Who's gonna be availible that has the potential to be an big bat or a ToR pitcher? I almost wish they'd just not sign the 6th pick and save it for next year if there's not going to be a potential star there.

 

I'm pretty sure plenty of the guys being discussed at #6 are high ceiling players.

[Vinestal]

it seems like a lot of what's going to be availible are high floor low ceiling players. It's kind of dissapointing if they go that route. We have plenty of those guys in our system already. I'm tired of getting guys who are going to wind up as utility infielders if they even sniff the majors. I realize it's hard to pick who will become stars but it seems like our scouting department has done a lousy job in the recent past. I realize we might have been under budget restraints and that the draft has changed with the rule changes this year, but I really wish we could get some players who's ceiling isn't backup catcher or utility infileder . McLeod has been quoted as saying they want to find impact guys, our system aside from some of last years guys certainly lack that. Who's gonna be availible that has the potential to be an big bat or a ToR pitcher? I almost wish they'd just not sign the 6th pick and save it for next year if there's not going to be a potential star there.

 

I'm pretty sure plenty of the guys being discussed at #6 are high ceiling players.

guess I'm just getting the wrong impression then, hope your right

[Guest]

it seems like a lot of what's going to be availible are high floor low ceiling players. It's kind of dissapointing if they go that route. We have plenty of those guys in our system already. I'm tired of getting guys who are going to wind up as utility infielders if they even sniff the majors. I realize it's hard to pick who will become stars but it seems like our scouting department has done a lousy job in the recent past. I realize we might have been under budget restraints and that the draft has changed with the rule changes this year, but I really wish we could get some players who's ceiling isn't backup catcher or utility infileder . McLeod has been quoted as saying they want to find impact guys, our system aside from some of last years guys certainly lack that. Who's gonna be availible that has the potential to be an big bat or a ToR pitcher? I almost wish they'd just not sign the 6th pick and save it for next year if there's not going to be a potential star there.

 

I'm pretty sure plenty of the guys being discussed at #6 are high ceiling players.

Correa + Buxton are viewed as potential star players.

 

Almora isn't seen as having quite the ceiling of those guys, but could reach all-star level. That's pretty solid production in the OF.

 

Appel is viewed as a Verlander-lite. Much better stuff than results in college. Whether pro coaching can get him to take the big next step Verlander did is another question.

 

Gausman may not be looked at as a potential star, but he is a decent bet to end up as a solid #2 pitcher.

 

Zimmer has shown flashes of dominant stuff, but has also shown a lot of inconsistency. If the high-end is maintainable, he could be a #1.

[bukie]

And the best part is one of them is guaranteed to be there at 6.

[Vinestal]

it seems like a lot of what's going to be availible are high floor low ceiling players. It's kind of dissapointing if they go that route. We have plenty of those guys in our system already. I'm tired of getting guys who are going to wind up as utility infielders if they even sniff the majors. I realize it's hard to pick who will become stars but it seems like our scouting department has done a lousy job in the recent past. I realize we might have been under budget restraints and that the draft has changed with the rule changes this year, but I really wish we could get some players who's ceiling isn't backup catcher or utility infileder . McLeod has been quoted as saying they want to find impact guys, our system aside from some of last years guys certainly lack that. Who's gonna be availible that has the potential to be an big bat or a ToR pitcher? I almost wish they'd just not sign the 6th pick and save it for next year if there's not going to be a potential star there.

 

I'm pretty sure plenty of the guys being discussed at #6 are high ceiling players.

Correa + Buxton are viewed as potential star players.

 

Almora isn't seen as having quite the ceiling of those guys, but could reach all-star level.

That's pretty solid production in the OF.

 

Appel is viewed as a Verlander-lite. Much better stuff than results in college. Whether pro coaching can get him to take the big next step Verlander did is another question.

Gausman may not be looked at as a potential star, but he is a decent bet to end up as a solid #2 pitcher.

 

Zimmer has shown flashes of dominant stuff, but has also shown a lot of inconsistency. If the high-end is maintainable, he could be a #1.

 

Yeah but it sounds like all of those guys will be gone by the time it gets to us. Then who's left Zunino? Meh... *edit apparently I've lost the ability to count to 6, I guess we should get one of those guys, thanks Tim.

Edited May 30, 2012 by Vinestal

[Guest]

it seems like a lot of what's going to be availible are high floor low ceiling players. It's kind of dissapointing if they go that route. We have plenty of those guys in our system already. I'm tired of getting guys who are going to wind up as utility infielders if they even sniff the majors. I realize it's hard to pick who will become stars but it seems like our scouting department has done a lousy job in the recent past. I realize we might have been under budget restraints and that the draft has changed with the rule changes this year, but I really wish we could get some players who's ceiling isn't backup catcher or utility infileder . McLeod has been quoted as saying they want to find impact guys, our system aside from some of last years guys certainly lack that. Who's gonna be availible that has the potential to be an big bat or a ToR pitcher? I almost wish they'd just not sign the 6th pick and save it for next year if there's not going to be a potential star there.

 

I'm pretty sure plenty of the guys being discussed at #6 are high ceiling players.

Correa + Buxton are viewed as potential star players.

 

Almora isn't seen as having quite the ceiling of those guys, but could reach all-star level.

That's pretty solid production in the OF.

 

Appel is viewed as a Verlander-lite. Much better stuff than results in college. Whether pro coaching can get him to take the big next step Verlander did is another question.

Gausman may not be looked at as a potential star, but he is a decent bet to end up as a solid #2 pitcher.

 

Zimmer has shown flashes of dominant stuff, but has also shown a lot of inconsistency. If the high-end is maintainable, he could be a #1.

 

Yeah but it sounds like all of those guys will be gone by the time it gets to us. Then who's left Zunino? Meh...

 

He just listed 6 names...not to mention there's also Giolito

[craig]

I think I'd like Correa/Buxton or one of the three college pitchers.

 

So my worst-case, I think, is choosing between Zunino, Almora, Fried, or Giolito.

 

That's a pretty nice four names to be choosing from.

 

And if one of the top five teams takes one of them, that would probably push one of the college pitchers into the pool at 6.

 

I think it's looking pretty good.

[Guest]

it seems like a lot of what's going to be availible are high floor low ceiling players. It's kind of dissapointing if they go that route. We have plenty of those guys in our system already. I'm tired of getting guys who are going to wind up as utility infielders if they even sniff the majors. I realize it's hard to pick who will become stars but it seems like our scouting department has done a lousy job in the recent past. I realize we might have been under budget restraints and that the draft has changed with the rule changes this year, but I really wish we could get some players who's ceiling isn't backup catcher or utility infileder . McLeod has been quoted as saying they want to find impact guys, our system aside from some of last years guys certainly lack that. Who's gonna be availible that has the potential to be an big bat or a ToR pitcher? I almost wish they'd just not sign the 6th pick and save it for next year if there's not going to be a potential star there.

 

I'm pretty sure plenty of the guys being discussed at #6 are high ceiling players.

Correa + Buxton are viewed as potential star players.

 

Almora isn't seen as having quite the ceiling of those guys, but could reach all-star level.

That's pretty solid production in the OF.

 

Appel is viewed as a Verlander-lite. Much better stuff than results in college. Whether pro coaching can get him to take the big next step Verlander did is another question.

Gausman may not be looked at as a potential star, but he is a decent bet to end up as a solid #2 pitcher.

 

Zimmer has shown flashes of dominant stuff, but has also shown a lot of inconsistency. If the high-end is maintainable, he could be a #1.

 

Yeah but it sounds like all of those guys will be gone by the time it gets to us. Then who's left Zunino? Meh... *edit apparently I've lost the ability to count to 6, I guess we should get one of those guys, thanks Tim.

Zunino has an all star catcher ceiling and he's the most likely high floor/low ceiling type being considered by the Cubs.

[Tryptamine]

“The buzz word we use is impact,” McLeod said. “That’s the direction we’ll go with that pick.”

 

He’s seen the Cubs farm system and recognizes there are needs.

 

“We definitely feel there’s a need for impact in the organization,” McLeod said. “One thing we know is we’re seeing it first-hand, you need power pitching, you need impact players to get into the post-season and go deep in the postseason. It takes a little bit of time to find those guys through different avenues whether it be trade, Major League free agency, the Draft and through the international market.”

 

http://muskat.mlblogs.com/2012/05/30/530-cubs-prep-for-mondays-draft/

 

Reading things like this really make me believe that even if Zunino is there at 6 the Cubs will go with someone like Almora,Giolito or Fried instead.

[davell]

Getting a decent ceiling, high floor Catcher at 6 is about the lowest ceiling guy we're probably considering. And he's probably the safest bet of anyone to be an All Star of anyone in the draft. I don't care as much about 6, as I do 43,56,67, and 101. Those are what's making or breaking our draft. We're getting a good guy at 6.