2012 Draft Discussion

[RammyFanny]

Jim Callis:

They might. Not definite. @pikach42: You think ‪#Cubs‬ would go Zimmer over Almora/Fried? ‪#mlbdraft‬

 

My gut keeps trying to tell me 3 to ‪#Mariners‬. Won't get past 6 to ‪#Cubs‬. @zrod10: where does your gut say correa goes? ‪#mlbdraft‬

 

Hoping for Gausman or Correa. Might wind up w/Almora. @bigchrislit: who do you think the ‪#cubs‬ will take at 6? ‪#mlbdraft‬

Sounds like pretty much exactly what I want.

 

Edit: Here's a couple of Correa bombs that I didn't see earlier:

 

[PriortoTheoIhadWood]

So Zimmer has fallen slightly?

[Guest]

Yes. And Correa is rising.

[Guest]

@Kevin_Goldstein: Don't know, nobody does. Signabilty factor is unknown. RT @bcshults: @Kevin_Goldstein do you think drafting Giolito is worth the risk at 6?

[El Duderino]

There sure are a ton of unknowns surrounding Giolito a week before the draft.

[RammyFanny]

There sure are a ton of unknowns surrounding Giolito a week before the draft.

Almost makes me wonder if he's trying to steer himself towards a specific team where there's mutual interest. But probably not.

[El Duderino]

There sure are a ton of unknowns surrounding Giolito a week before the draft.

Almost makes me wonder if he's trying to steer himself towards a specific team where there's mutual interest. But probably not.

 

Wasn't there a rumor he had a deal with the Padres?

[javy knows my name]

Does Correa have more projectable power right now than Almora and Buxton? He's built like Jeter already.

[RammyFanny]

Does Correa have more projectable power right now than Almora and Buxton? He's built like Jeter already.

Yes, without doubt. Unfortunately, I'd wager the Mariners take him if Buxton/Appel go 1-2. Hopefully they take Zunino. Wish Zimmer would have been better so we could have celebrated one of the 3 college arms falling to us, but he's not a no doubter pick like he was looking like earlier this season.

[RammyFanny]

Correa honestly reminds me a bit of a young Miggy physically, maybe a little thinner:

 

http://www.thediamondangle.com/archive/july01/kane/cabrera.jpg

http://2.bp.blogspot.com/-vrcFDeazyOo/T66oXKO5EII/AAAAAAAACmk/Q6dcULKN4m8/s1600/carlos%2Bcorrea.JPG

 

[PriortoTheoIhadWood]

I'm singing a different tune...I want Carlos Correa (or Appel or Guasman) at 6. This is the kiss of death on the Cubs actually being able to draft any one of them.

 

I wonder if he ends up at 3B...he's a big guy.

[javy knows my name]

I will officially be happy with any of 8 guys when we pick.

[Tryptamine]

Gausman slipping to 6 would make me ridiculously happy.

[javy knows my name]

Gausman slipping to 6 would make me ridiculously happy.

 

And that would probably make me the happiest.

[PriortoTheoIhadWood]

I will officially be happy with any of 8 guys when we pick.

 

There is 0 ways to [expletive] up the pick. The absolute worst case scenario is that they pick Giolito, don't sign him, and get the 7 pick next year.

[UK1679666180]

Here's a mock draft:

 

1. Houston Astros

 

KEVIN GAUSMAN - RHP - Louisiana State

 

One of the most popular rumors on the cross check circuit right now involves the Astros getting a deal done with Gausman for a below slot amount. In this year’s draft scenario, with no standout No. 1 prospect, that only makes sense.

2. MINNESOTA TWINS

 

CARLOS CORREA - SS - Puerto Rico Baseball Academy

 

The Twins strongly have to pick the best player available with no other considerations and that points to Correa, whose hitting/power tool is superior to Byron Buxton’s. Whether he stays at shortstop or moves to third base in the future is irrelevant to the decision.

3. SEATTLE MARINERS

 

BYRON BUXTON - OF - Appling County HS, Ga.

 

The Mariners like Michael Zunino plenty enough to pick him here and would probably be happy to if Buxton were snatched up by either the Astros or the Twins. But I’ve heard the comment “there is no way Buxton is getting out of the top three” frequently enough this spring to believe it.

4. BALTIMORE ORIOLES

 

KYLE ZIMMER - RHP - University of San Francisco

 

I’ve been told on good authority that the Orioles have Zimmer ranked ahead of Mark Appel on their draft board.

5. KANSAS CITY ROYALS

 

MARK APPEL - RHP - Stanford

 

Appel has rebounded well from his mid-season mini-slump, although the similarities between Appel and Luke Hochavar might be too much for Royals fans to stomach. I wouldn’t be surprised if Max Fried didn’t work his way into the conversation here.

6. CHICAGO CUBS

 

MIKE ZUNINO - C - Florida

 

To those who are quibbling that Zunino has had a disappointing year at the plate, please remember how high the bar is, as Zunino is still leading the nation’s top baseball conference in home runs (14), doubles (23) and total bases (130), while ranking second in RBI (50). All the while catching every game, making only three errors and even ranking second on the Gators in stolen bases (8).

7. SAN DIEGO PADRES

 

LUCAS GIOLITO - RHP - Harvard-Westlake HS, Calif.

 

Giolito, baring a major setback, has to land somewhere and the Padres are a perfect fit for the SoCal native. What intelligent, baseball savvy young pitcher wouldn’t want to pitch in Petco Park? This is the best case scenario for both San Diego and the Giolito Family.

8. PITTSBURGH PIRATES

 

MAX FRIED - LHP - Harvard-Westlake HS, Calif.

 

Fried is the best bet among the top high school pitchers in this class to move quickly and reach the big leagues by the time he’s 21-22 years old. That wouldn’t put him too far behind other Pirates top prospect pitchers such as Gerrit Cole and Jamison Taillon.

9. FLORIDA MARLINS

 

ALBERT ALMORA - OF - Mater Academy, Fla.

 

I can’t imagine my changing this pick before the draft unless someone from the Marlins front office calls me up and tells me it isn’t happening. Of course, Almora could be off the board by the ninth pick.

10. COLORADO ROCKIES

 

MICHAEL WACHA - RHP - Texas A&M

 

Wacha is a prototype Rockies pitcher, big and durable with a power sinking fastball, a plus/plus change up and less reliance on a breaking ball than the average top prospect pitcher.

11. OAKLAND ATHLETICS

 

RICHIE SHAFFER - 3B - Clemson

 

Not only is Shaffer hitting .343-10-43 with 16 doubles, he is seventh in the NCAA with 50 walks in 53 games. That’s the kind of well-rounded offensive game that Billy Beane and Oakland fans can appreciate.

12. NEW YORK METS

 

LANCE MCCULLERS - RHP - Tampa Jesuit HS, Fla.

 

The Mets showed last year with their pick of Wyoming high school outfielder Brandon Nimmo that they were willing to be patient with the rebuilding of the organization’s talent base. McCullers is the type of young pitcher/young man who might actually welcome the bright lights of New York.

13. CHICAGO WHITE SOX

 

COURTNEY HAWKINS - OF - Carroll HS, Texas

 

There has been talk this spring that the White Sox will finally get away from their college emphasis at the top of the draft and have a more balanced draft philosophy. Hawkins and his potential as a middle of the order slugger would be a good start.

14. CINCINNATI REDS

 

JOEY GALLO - 3B/RHP - Bishop Gorman HS, Nev.

 

The lack of action on Gallo in the first half of the draft is perplexing. He is a left handed hitter with the most raw power, college or high school, in the draft, is athletic enough to play third base and throws 100 mph off the mound as well. Can you imagine how he would look in 4-5 years with him in the middle of the Reds lineup with Joey Votto and Jay Bruce?

15. CLEVELAND INDIANS

 

ANDREW HEANEY - LHP - Oklahoma State

 

Heaney qualifies as one of the safest bets in the 2012 draft as a polished left hander with a low-90s fastball and outstanding feel for his breaking ball. If he weighed 25 pounds more, he would probably be considered a top 10 overall pick.

16. WASHINGTON NATIONALS

 

MARCUS STROMAN - RHP - Duke

 

True Story: In 1996, the new Astros G.M asked me a few days before the draft for a briefing on who we were considering for our first round pick, which was 19th overall. When I mentioned a 5-foot-9 high school shortstop, I got by chewed out and was told in no uncertain terms that no team that he was running would pick a 5-foot-9 high school shortstop in the first round, or words to that effect. The Astros ended up picking Hawaii RHP Mark Johnson while future MVP Jimmy Rollins lasted until the Phillies picked him in the second round. Moral of the Story: Be careful making sweeping judgments on short players.

17. TORONTO BLUE JAYS

 

DAVID DAHL - OF - Oak Mountain HS, Ala.

 

Dahl is being talked about by teams in the top 10 picks, which makes it very possible that he won’t get to Toronto at this pick. If he does, it would be great value as the first of Blue Jays five picks in the top 60.

18. LOS ANGELES DODGERS

 

MATT SMORAL - LHP - Solon HS, Ohio

 

The Dodgers have picked pitchers with their last eight first round/first round supplemental draft picks and four of those have been southpaws. Smoral’s broken foot will certainly make teams uncomfortable in their evaluations but he was a well-known commodity before the spring started and considered a potential top 10 pick.

19. ST. LOUIS CARDINALS (FROM ANGELS FOR ALBERT PUJOLS)

 

DEVEN MARRERO - SS - ARIZONA STATE

 

The bottom line is that Marrero is hitting .255-4-27 in one of the best hitting environments in college baseball. He certainly has the skills and tools to hit better and has in the past, but for whatever reason hasn’t this spring. He could certainly go higher, but he could keep sliding as well.

20. SAN FRANCISCO GIANTS

 

STEPHEN PISCOTTY - 3B - Stanford

 

The Giants have had plenty of success drafting college position players in the last five years, with Buster Posey and top prospects OF Gary Brown and SS Joe Panik being prime examples. Piscotty’s power should develop well enough in pro ball to handle left field if he doesn’t improve defensively at third base.

21. Atlanta Braves

 

TYLER NAQUIN - OF - Texas A&M

 

Naquin has been playing some centerfield over the last month for the Aggies and the team that drafts him will do so because they think he can continue to do so. His hit, run and throw tools are all in the plus area.

22. Toronto Blue Jays (for unsigned 2011 pick Tyler beede)

 

CHRIS STRATTON - RHP - Mississippi State

 

Stratton has been one of the most improved players in college baseball, with a firmer fastball, a sharper slider and much improved command. He should move quickly through the Blue Jays minor league system if he stays healthy.

23. St. Louis Cardinals

 

D.J. DAVIS - OF - Stone County HS, Miss.

 

If there is one player who could be a surprise top 10-15 pick, it could be the fleet-footed Davis, whose left handed bat speed and power late in his high school season opened plenty of eyes. If he works out for a team and starts knocking balls over big league fences in the days leading up to the draft, watch out.

24. boston red sox

 

VICTOR ROACHE - OF - Georgia Southern

 

It seems like a cliché to put Roache with the Red Sox a year after they drafted another wrist/hand injury victim, Jackie Bradley, with the 40th pick in the 2011 draft. But it doesn’t hurt that Bradley is absolutely tearing it up in Hi A, either, after so many teams shied away from him.

25. tampa bay rays

 

STRYKER TRAHAN - C - Acadiana HS, La.

 

Trahan will require patience to develop, especially if he’s able to stay behind the plate, and no organization is better equipped to do that than the Rays.

26. arizona diamondbacks

 

GAVIN CECCHINI - SS - Barbe HS, La.

 

Cecchini is another player who is being talked about far higher than this draft slot but he didn’t have a standout spring and his tool/skill package stands out better against top level competition than it does in spring high school play.

27. milwaukee brewers (from tigers for prince fielder)

 

TY HENSLEY - RHP - Santa Fe HS, Okla.

 

Hensley’s stuff has been electric at times this spring, although he is still inconsistent in his pitching mechanics and is relatively new to pitching.

28. Milwaukee brewers

 

PIERCE JOHNSON - RHP - Missouri State

 

Johnson’s rise to first round potential has shadowed Chris Stratton’s, although it was delayed three weeks by a forearm strain in April. He has a potent three pitch mix, including an out pitch curveball, and much improved command.

29. texas rangers

 

DYLAN BAKER - RHP - Western Nevada CC

 

No change from the first mock draft here. This would be a pick totally in character with the Rangers recent draft history. There is a bit more risk in Baker than the regular college pitching draft, but a bit more upside potential as well.

30. new york yankees

 

ZACH EFLIN - RHP - Hagerty HS, Fla.

 

Eflin’s draft stock will rise or fall with his appearance at the Florida State High School All-Star Game on May 25. If he throws healthy and well and has recovered from his recent bout with tendonitis, he could even break into the top 15 picks.

31. boston red sox (from phillies for jonathan papelbon)

 

WALKER WEICKEL - RHP - Hagerty HS, Fla.

 

It would be appropriate for Eflin and Weickel to be picked back to back, since scouts have been comparing the two closely all spring.

32. MINNESOTA TWINS (FOR MICHAEL CUDDYER)

 

ADDISON RUSSELL - SS - Pace HS, Fla.

 

Drafting high school shortstops with above average offensive potential in Russell and Carlos Correa (No. 2 overall) is not redundant at all. The Twins need a huge influx of athletic talent in their system and athletes who can hit will eventually find a place to play.

33. SAN DIEGO PADRES (FOR HEATH BELL)

 

JAMES RAMSEY - OF - Florida State

 

The Padres will likely need all the extra money they can find in order to sign first pick Giolito and saving a few dollars on senior Ramsey will be a good start.

34. OAKLAND ATHLETICS (FOR JOSH WILLINGHAM)

 

J.O. BERRIOS - RHP - Pope John XXIII HS, Puerto Rico

 

The highest Puerto Rican pitcher ever selected was picked 35th overall (Luis Atilano, Braves, 2003) and it was honestly a coincidence when I slotted the deserving Berrios at No. 34 overall.

35. NEW YORK METS (FOR JOSE REYES)

 

COREY SEAGER - 3B - Northwest Cabarrus HS, N.C.

 

Seager has seen his stock rise significantly over the last month as scouts become increasingly convinced that his bat will play at the professional level. The rest of the package as an athletic left handed hitter plays high.

36. ST. LOUIS CARDINALS (FOR ALBERT PUJOLS)

 

PETER O'BRIEN - C - Miami

 

The Cardinals have five picks in the top 60 and will likely be looking for a little wiggle room to stay within their bonus pool. O’Brien is a senior who plays a premium position and had an excellent spring.

37. BOSTON RED SOX (FOR JONATHAN PAPELBON)

 

SHANE WATSON - RHP - Lakewood HS, Calif.

 

Outside of the Harvard Westlake High School duo of Lucas Giolito and Max Fried, this has been a very quiet year for prep pitching in Southern California. Watson has emerged from the pack as the top prospect of the group.

38. MILWAUKEE BREWERS (FOR PRINCE FIELDER)

 

TANNER RAHIER - SS - Palm Desert HS, Calif.

 

Rahier’s stock is going up coming into the draft and has a chance to be a dynamic offensive talent with his combination of aggressiveness and bat speed.

39. TEXAS RANGERS (FOR C.J. WILSON)

 

ALEX WOOD - LHP - Georgia

 

Wood is fitting compensation for the Rangers losing LHP C.J. Wilson to free agency.

40. PHILADELPHIA PHILLIES (FOR RYAN MADSON)

 

MITCHELL GUELLER - RHP - West HS, Wash.

 

The Phillies crave athletic young players and they don’t come much more athletic than Gueller, who some teams like better as an outfielder than on the mound.

41. HOUSTON ASTROS (FOR CLINT BARMES)

 

BRIAN JOHNSON - LHP - Florida

 

Johnson is the pitching version of Arizona State SS Devin Marerro, a first round talent who just hasn’t performed on a consistent basis (5-4, 4.29, 69 hits in 65 innings) this spring.

42. MINNESOTA TWINS (FOR JASON KUBEL)

 

TY BUTTREY - RHP - Providence HS, N.C.

 

Buttrey is mature on the mound for a high school pitcher, being a year older at 19 and having firm command of his three pitch mix. He’s a “safer” pick for a high school right hander than is usual.

43. CHICAGO CUBS (FOR ARAMIS RAMIREZ)

 

LUCAS SIMS - RHP - Brookwood HS, Ga.

 

This might be a little on the low side for the hard throwing Sims, who was pretty consistently 93-95 mph for much of the spring and shows a potential plus breaking ball and surprisingly mature change up for a pitcher his age.

44. SAN DIEGO PADRES (FOR AARON HARANG)

 

TREY WILLIAMS - 3B - Valencia HS, Calif.

 

No team knows Williams better than the hometown Padres, who could use all the offense they can find for spacious Petco Park.

45. PITTSBURGH PIRATES (FOR RYAN DOUMIT)

 

JESSE WINKER - OF - Olympia HS, Fla.

 

Winker continues to impress as one of the most consistent and mature high school hitters in the country. One veteran scout recently compared his swing and approach to Joey Votto’s at the same age.

46. COLORADO ROCKIES (FOR MARK ELLIS)

 

CARSON KELLY - 3B/RHP - Westview HS, Ore.

 

Kelly’s stock continues to rise as a right handed power hitting third baseman in what is shaping up to be an outstanding year for that position in the national high school ranks.

47. OAKLAND ATHLETICS (FOR DAVID DEJESUS)

 

MARTIN AGOSTA - RHP - St. Mary's

 

Agosta has quietly flown under the radar for the most part this spring despite being dominant (9-2, 2.27 in 95 IP) for a sub-.500 team. He has is one of the safest bets to pitch in the big leagues in this draft.

48. CHICAGO WHITE SOX (FOR MARK BUEHRLE)

 

MITCH HANIGER - OF - Cal Poly

 

College position players with some power are at a premium in this draft, which could lead to players such as Haniger and Texas Tech’s Barrett Barnes to creep up draft boards.

49. CINCINNATI REDS (FOR RAMON HERNANDEZ)

 

EDWIN DIAZ - RHP - Caguas Military Academy, Puerto Rico

 

A high level scout recently commented that Diaz is a dead ringer for Neftali Felix at the same age. Unfortunately that scout’s team doesn’t have a pick anywhere near where Diaz is expected to go. The Reds could be the beneficiary of that.

50. TORONTO BLUE JAYS (FOR FRANK FRANCISCO)

 

ADAM BRETT WALKER - 1B/OF - Jacksonville

 

Walker turned his season around in the middle of the spring when regained his aggressiveness and started trying to drive the ball instead of worry about swinging and missing. He has as much raw power as any college hitter in the country.

51. LOS ANGELES DODGERS (FOR ROD BARAJAS)

 

BRETT MOONEYHAM - LHP - Stanford

 

Mooneyham hasn’t been quite as sharp during the second half as he was earlier in the season but can be excused to an extent after he missed all the 2011 season with a hand injury.

52. ST. LOUIS CARDINALS (FOR OCTAVIO DOTEL)

 

BARRETT BARNES - OF - Texas Tech

 

Barnes has not hit Big 12 pitching with as much authority as scouts would have liked to have seen but his combination of speed and power and the potential to play centerfield make him a probable first day pick.

53. TEXAS RANGERS (FOR DARREN OLIVER)

 

J.T. CHARGOIS - RHP - Rice

 

For an organization like Texas that is deep in prospects, there is value in selecting a very low risk, quick return reliever like Chargois. He gets into the Major League inventory quickly and gives GM Jon Daniels more flexibility.

54. PHILADELPHIA PHILLIES (FOR RAUL IBANEZ)

 

MITCHELL BROWN - RHP - Century HS, Minn.

 

Brown has been quietly and consistently been showing three to four potential plus pitches this spring out of the spotlight up in Minnesota.

55. SAN DIEGO PADRES (FOR UNSIGNED 2011 PICK BRETT AUSTIN)

 

NOLAN FONTANA - SS - Florida

 

Fontana’s new found power this spring (9 home runs) hasn’t come at the cost of plate discipline (39 walks vs. 22 Ks) or his batting average (.287 as a freshman, .289 as a sophomore, .284 as a junior). But it’s probably the 3 errors in 53 games that resonates the most for the ultra-consistent shortstop.

56. CHICAGO CUBS (FOR CARLOS PENA)

 

DAMIEN MAGNIFICO - RHP - Oklahoma

 

Magnifico’s health history and lack of a quality secondary pitch are disconcerting but there is no way to ignore the consistency and ease of his upper 90’s to 100+ mph fastball.

57. CINCINNATI REDS (FOR FRANCISCO CORDERO)

 

DUANE UNDERWOOD - RHP - Pope HS, Ga.

 

Underwood has been throwing better the second half of the season after a relatively slow start and is starting to throw a mid-90s fastball more frequently, just as he did last summer.

58. TORONTO BLUE JAYS (FOR JON RAUCH)

 

NICK TRAVIESO - RHP - Archbishop McCarthy HS, Fla.

 

Scouts have got plenty of extra looks at Travieso as he’s still pitching in the Florida State HS playoffs and the hard throwing right hander has maintained consistent stuff and performance.

59. ST. LOUIS CARDINALS (FOR EDWIN JACKSON)

 

AUSTIN MADDOX - RHP - Florida

 

The first move for any team drafting Maddox should probably be to shift him in to a starting job, as he has the pitches, command and athleticism to perform in that role.

60. TORONTO BLUE JAYS (FOR JOSE MOLINA)

 

MITCH NAY - 3B - Hamilton HS, Ariz.

 

One hears consistently all spring about the shortage of true power in this draft, which gives the right handed hitting Nay a good chance to move up draft boards.

[davell]

I'd be quite happy with that, because Sims is a phenomenal get at 43. I don't like taking relievers early, but I like Sims enough to not care about Magnifico, who does throw as hard or harder than anyone in the draft. I'm fine with Zunino, not sure I'd take him over Almora or not. If we pass on Giolito, I'm figuring we had reason to do so.

[UK1679666180]

I'd be quite happy with that, because Sims is a phenomenal get at 43. I don't like taking relievers early, but I like Sims enough to not care about Magnifico, who does throw as hard or harder than anyone in the draft. I'm fine with Zunino, not sure I'd take him over Almora or not. If we pass on Giolito, I'm figuring we had reason to do so.

 

It's from May 18th.

[davell]

I'd be quite happy with that, because Sims is a phenomenal get at 43. I don't like taking relievers early, but I like Sims enough to not care about Magnifico, who does throw as hard or harder than anyone in the draft. I'm fine with Zunino, not sure I'd take him over Almora or not. If we pass on Giolito, I'm figuring we had reason to do so.

 

It's from May 18th.

UK, is that your own mock, by any chance?

[PriortoTheoIhadWood]

I do like Sims some as far as the HS pitchers in this draft go. He's a solid athlete (there's video of him swinging and he's nice and loose), he's got size, decent possibly correctable mechanics...Don't see big time major league uspide (looks like a mid-rotation guy if everything works out), but seems like he can play.

 

I would have to pass on that mock...I'd be highly disappointed with the upside of those picks. I want a star, dammit.

[davell]

Zunino may not be a 3/4 hitter, but I do think he's an. 800 OPS type and coming from C, I'm perfectly fine, if we take him. Then load up with pitching bigtime. Maybe we get lucky and find a Taijuan Walker type guy or something. Maybe Travieso, Eflin, Sims, or even Smoral? Who I keep hearing has a strong commitment to UNC. With his injury, I could see him dropping to us. We'd just have to allot for a nice overslot.

[davell]

Connor Glassey says Mariners had 6 scouts, including 4 decision makers at Correas's last tournament.

[Tryptamine]

I would be less than thrilled with that draft. I want guys who have a ton of upside.

[Guest]

There sure are a ton of unknowns surrounding Giolito a week before the draft.

Almost makes me wonder if he's trying to steer himself towards a specific team where there's mutual interest. But probably not.

 

That's the feeling I'm getting. It feels like he's being mum about his bonus demands to the majority of MLB teams (his dad has said they'll share medical records with all teams) but one team might be able to crack him.

 

It seems like Correa is not getting to the Cubs which will be a disappointment. He is probably my favorite prospect in the draft - so projectable, whether he can stick at SS or not.

[davell]

At this point, my feeling is our choice winds up being between Zimmer, Almora, Giolito, and Fried.