2012 Draft Discussion

[PriortoTheoIhadWood]

Mooneyham, the big Stanford lefty who can hit 95 and spin a good curveball, struck out 10 over 7 innings against Utah. He's thrown 13 scoreless innings over his last two starts.

 

Mooneyham has topped out at 93 this year and has mostly been 88-91.

 

Plus Utah is horrible at baseball.

 

Yeah Utah sucks. Hit 95 last year so the arm strength is there. Where he sits is about what I expect except maybe make it 88-92 instead.

[Guest]

Mooneyham, the big Stanford lefty who can hit 95 and spin a good curveball, struck out 10 over 7 innings against Utah. He's thrown 13 scoreless innings over his last two starts.

 

Mooneyham has topped out at 93 this year and has mostly been 88-91.

 

Plus Utah is horrible at baseball.

 

Yeah Utah sucks. Hit 95 last year so the arm strength is there. Where he sits is about what I expect except maybe make it 88-92 instead.

 

Number of pitches Brett Mooneyham threw last year: 0.

[PriortoTheoIhadWood]

Mooneyham, the big Stanford lefty who can hit 95 and spin a good curveball, struck out 10 over 7 innings against Utah. He's thrown 13 scoreless innings over his last two starts.

 

Mooneyham has topped out at 93 this year and has mostly been 88-91.

 

Plus Utah is horrible at baseball.

 

Yeah Utah sucks. Hit 95 last year so the arm strength is there. Where he sits is about what I expect except maybe make it 88-92 instead.

 

Number of pitches Brett Mooneyham threw last year: 0.

 

Oops, good call. OTOH that might explain why he hasnt hit 95 this year, as he's been reported as doing it in the past.

[Guest]

One thing to remember about Correa, is he doesn't turn 18 until September 22. He's close to a year younger than quite a few of his high school draft class, making the projection factor that much larger.

 

That is his advantage but he's really only 5 months younger than Almora, the other top high school position player. Both were born in 1994 (April and September). Age is a factor but eh, not a huge advantage.

I don't think being younger is an advantage. I think risk and age are inversely related.

[PriortoTheoIhadWood]

One thing to remember about Correa, is he doesn't turn 18 until September 22. He's close to a year younger than quite a few of his high school draft class, making the projection factor that much larger.

 

That is his advantage but he's really only 5 months younger than Almora, the other top high school position player. Both were born in 1994 (April and September). Age is a factor but eh, not a huge advantage.

I don't think being younger is an advantage. I think risk and age are inversely related.

 

I think there's some study going around this year that talks about age being an advantage for draft picks. It's probably true to some point but like you say there is risk there and I just don't see it being a difference making trait in 17 and new 18 year old HSers.

 

It's probably a bigger deal in college guys who can be 20-23.

[Guancous]

Here is the link to part one of that research article about the ages of drafted players: http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=15295

[Guest]

Here is the link to part one of that research article about the ages of drafted players: http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=15295

 

Great read. Thanks.

[Bruno7481]

I'll be disappointed if we take Zunino.

 

Zunino profiles as a solid every day player, but not an all star.

 

That provides a lot of value, don't discount it.

 

Who knows what they will do, but don't dismiss the value that possibly provides.

[Guest]

Jim Callis on which draft prospects this year are likely to make BA's 2013 top 100:

 

Ask BA[/url]"]This year's draft isn't as strong as last year's crop, but it still should be well-represented on next year's Top 100. I'd set the over/under at 14.5 for 2012 draftees on the 2013 list. The prime candidates are catcher Mike Zunino (Florida); infielders Carlos Correa (Puerto Rico Baseball Academy, Gurabo, P.R.) and Deven Marrero (Arizona State); outfielders Byron Buxton (Appling County HS, Baxley, Ga.), Albert Almora (Mater Academy, Hialeah Gardens, Fla.), David Dahl (Oak Mountain HS, Birmingham) and Courtney Hawkins (Carroll HS, Corpus Christi, Texas); lefthander Max Fried (Harvard-Westlake HS, Studio City, Calif.); and righthanders Kyle Zimmer (San Francisco), Mark Appel (Stanford), Kevin Gausman (Louisiana State), Michael Wacha (Texas A&M), Lucas Giolito (Harvard-Westlake HS), Marcus Stroman (Duke) and Lance McCullers Jr. (Jesuit HS, Tampa).

[jersey cubs fan]

I'll be disappointed if we take Zunino.

 

Zunino profiles as a solid every day player, but not an all star.

 

That provides a lot of value, don't discount it.

 

Who knows what they will do, but don't dismiss the value that possibly provides.

 

I wouldn't dismiss the value, but you sure as hell can discount it.

[Bruno7481]

Bad wording. Point remains, that would be an asset at the catching position if it turned out that way.

[Guest]

The Cubs need to start hitting the lottery with a few guys in the drafts. They have a lot of guys who could be "solid" and not nearly enough could be a "perennial all-star".

[davell]

Cubs have 5 picks in the top 101. About the only thing they can do here, to address the system is to mix it up. If they go high upside at 6, then I bet they go safe with 2-3 of their next 4 picks. If they go safe at 6, then I'd expect a bunch of high upside types to follow. As much as I want a ton of high reward guys, I'm sure they'll take some of each early.

[iowahawkeyes89]

The Cubs need to start hitting the lottery with a few guys in the drafts. They have a lot of guys who could be "solid" and not nearly enough could be a "perennial all-star".

 

This

 

I'm not looking for solid every day player with the 6th overall pick. Cubs need high ceiling talent.

[iowahawkeyes89]

Cubs have 5 picks in the top 101. About the only thing they can do here, to address the system is to mix it up. If they go high upside at 6, then I bet they go safe with 2-3 of their next 4 picks. If they go safe at 6, then I'd expect a bunch of high upside types to follow. As much as I want a ton of high reward guys, I'm sure they'll take some of each early.

 

I'm hoping 6, and both supp picks are high ceiling guys. I know that probably wont happen, but that's what I really want to see.

[davell]

Zunino is still a potential all star. It's not like he has no upside. The only potential top 10 pick that's NOT got lots of upside is Marrero, who I don't want at all, but is probably going to be a 3 or 4 WAR guy in his prime. But at 6? Whether it's one of Appel, Gausman, Zimmer, Zunino, Giolito, Fried, Buxton, Correa, or Almora, we're going to get enough upside out of that spot.

[davell]

Perfect scenarios for me: Take college pitcher in 1st, follow it with HS pitching in supp. Take Zunino in 1st, follow with HS pitching in supp. Take Almora, Correa, Buxton, Giolito, or Fried in 1st, take college pitching in supp.

[iowahawkeyes89]

Perfect scenarios for me: Take college pitcher in 1st, follow it with HS pitching in supp. Take Zunino in 1st, follow with HS pitching in supp. Take Almora, Correa, Buxton, Giolito, or Fried in 1st, take college pitching in supp.

 

My dream scenario...

 

6 - Gausman

43- Virant/Wieckel

56 - Clint Coulter/Branden Kline

[davell]

My dream scenario is Giolito at 6, Roache and Alex Wood in the supp, Travieso/Sims/Eflin/Underwood/Traver in the 2nd, and Diekroger in the 3rd.

[toonsterwu]

I guess Diekroeger in the 3rd is fine, but he really doesn't intrigue me. Heck, I'd rather take Chris Taylor from UVA (and despite being a UVA fan ... I've never really understood the fuss on Taylor).

[PriortoTheoIhadWood]

Mariners prospect Kyle Seager has a brother in this draft who sounds interesting. Projects to play 3B as a pro. Mayo mentioned him in an article...:

 

Corey Seager, Northwest Cabarrus HS, North Carolina (44)

While his older brother, Kyle, is establishing himself as a pretty solid Major League third baseman, Corey is bigger and more physical and has the chance to fit the prototype more than big bro does. The younger Seager plays shortstop in high school, but the consensus is he'll have to slide over to third at the next level. He has the defensive skills to excel there and while he's more of pure hitter now, the power was starting to show up and should continue to do so as Seager matures.

 

http://mlb.mlb.com/news/article.jsp?ymd=20120521&content_id=31889410&vkey=news_mlb&c_id=mlb&tcid=tw_article_31889410

[Guest]

Seager has a really strong commitment to South Carolina, though it sounds like he can be bought out of it with 1st rd pick.

Don't think he'll be there for the Cubs sandwich picks.

[PriortoTheoIhadWood]

Shucks, definitely one of the HS bats that sounds like...sorry...my kind of prospect/player. Size, defense, "pure hitter," power potential...be still my beating heart.

 

I need to find some more interesting bats for this draft.

[toonsterwu]

This is totally my bias talking, but if the Cubs want a polished college IF that can play multiple positions, I'm still a big fan of Stephen Bruno of UVA. Guy can hit, solid approach, and some pop. I think he can play short ... but it's a challenge to assess him as a shortstop prospect as of now because he isn't playing it (easy to forget that he was actually the favorite at shortstop before he got hurt). Plays 3rd, may profile best at 2nd. Reminds me a bit of a better Phil Gosselin (from UVA). Sounds like he's a top 10 round guy, and perhaps top 6 (still prefer him to Chris Taylor overall ... I think Taylor moves off short eventually, and if we're comparing them at 2nd or 3rd, I give Bruno's bat the edge).

[PriortoTheoIhadWood]

This Bruno chap...can he LeMahieu?

 

Hmm....more compact than LeMahieu at 5'9".

 

Season line of .370/.425/.569...211 ABs/ 47 R/ 20 2Bs/ 13 BBs/ 21 Ks/ 2 HR/ 10-13 on SBs

 

Sounds interesting. No LeMahieu, but sounds interesting.