BA w/ RISP

[CP_414]

The Cubs problem isn't that they aren't clutch, it's that they don't have power hitters and they don't walk. The OBP and SLG are being propped up because of the high team batting average, and that's great, but if you don't hit for power and you don't walk it takes 3 singles in a row to get a run. Even with a good batting average it's hard to string together that many singles in an inning. Also, they don't steal bases, so unless they get a rare extra base hit, scoring a run is a 3-step process for this team. They aren't unlucky, they are bad. Unless they starting taking walks and hitting with power, it isn't going to get better.

[Fred Hornkohl]

i think the low average with risp is a symptom of a bigger issue. this team has shown very little power so far this season. whenever the first game with saint louis was, it was 13 hits, all singles, 4 runs. i believe that at one point the cubs had a collective 20 or 25 hits spread over a few games, all singles. if the team mixes in maybe 4 or 5 doubles, the risp may go up some and there are 3 or 4 more wins on the board. if all that i being hit is singles, the defense can gameplan for that

 

with the psn being down the last 3 weeks i haven't been able to see a lot of the games but i don't seem to recall a whole lot of xbh this season, granted that there are more singles hit than any other type of hit. maybe our resident stat geeks could list how many xbh the cubs have had this season vs other teams in the league (if that is even possible)?

 

Maybe this will help.........

 

CUBS are on a pace for:                   Compared to:
                                  2010  2009  2008  2007  2006  2005
.120 home runs                      149   162   185   151   166   194
.428 walks                          476   597   638   500   395   419
4.03 runs per game                 4.22  4.39  5.29  4.64  4.42  4.34
.320 runs per baserunner          0.353 0.345 0.381 0.364 0.370 0.365
25.9 % of extra base hits          33.6  34.6  34.3  34.1  32.3  35.8
.279 batting average              0.256 0.255 0.277 0.271 0.268 0.270
.333 on base percentage           0.319 0.331 0.353 0.332 0.319 0.324
.399 slugging percentage          0.401 0.407 0.440 0.422 0.422 0.440
.732 on base plus slugging (OPS)  0.720 0.738 0.794 0.754 0.741 0.764

[Northside Blues]

I miss 2008.

[Guest]

Sure, there's a difference there. Playoffs, too, I'm sure. But I believe the guys who are subject to tensing up badly will have been weeded out by then.

 

I agree with your general statement in that the guys who get nervous frequently, don't make it this far.

 

I was just saying that I think there are guys who occasionally tense up in big situations in big games. It might not happen at all to a majority of the players and even the players it does happen to, I don't think it happens often and it might not have that much of an effect (i.e. a guy might be a bit nervous but rip a double anyway).

 

But I don't think that there's never been a baseball player who was nervous when he stepped into the batters box or onto the mound. For example, in the EPL this weekend, Wayne Rooney said he was terrified to take a penalty kick, and he's one of the best players in the world who has been in a ton of situations more important than this one. He also ripped the ball into the corner and scored so any nerves didn't affect the outcome at all.

[Exile on Waveland]

Regarding clutch, I also think its way more likely that unclutch players exist than clutch players. In other words, it would be extremely rare that a player could flip on a switch and suddenly hit better when it was needed most, but it isn't too hard to imagine that a player can tense up during a critical moment and suck. That doesn't mean everyone with poor clutch numbers is unclutch, some may just suffer from luck and a small sample size.

 

Not that I would make personel decisions based on it or anything, but some people just don't perform well under pressure.

Can you imagine the pressure of being drafted, showing up for minor league camp and trying to perform? The whole process of going through HS, college & the minors will weed out the guys who are "unclutch".

 

I understand this line of reasoning and believe it has some merit, but, at the same time, I think the underlying assumption is specious. Sure, there is pressure to succeed in camps and tryouts and whatnot for personal reasons. But I think pressure from endogenous factors is completely different from exongenous pressure factors. I don't believe wanting to succeed for yourself is terribly comparable to wanting to succeed for yourself and your teammates, all while in front of tens of thousands of fans, with millions more watching. A tryout isn't the same as the World Series. If you fail at the former, you're career path is detrimentally altered; if you fail at the latter, your name may live in perpuitity as a joke (e.g., Bill Buckner). (There was also an excellent point earlier in the thread that everything is relative and compared to your peers that have also gone through the weeding-out process, one might become "unclutch" without changing.)

 

None of this means clutch is currently predictive or any signings or player evaluations should be based on "clutchness."

[Shilzzz]

what about OBP w/RISP

 

haha

this team is dumbing to watch

[champaignchris]

In the three games since the offensive outburst last Friday, they're 4 for their last 28 (.143) with RISP.

 

That's .231 for the year w/ RISP. They hit .292 in all other at bats.

 

Not sure why the lack of power matters when discussing the discrepancy between the batting average with runners in scoring position versus other situations. A guy will generally score from second or third on a single (hence "scoring position") and even if he doesn't it won't effect the batting average.

 

The issue isn't the Cubs' lack of power. The Cubs lead the league with a BABIP of .324 overall. It's .351 with nobody on and .336 with a runner on first. Their BAPIP with runners in scoring position is .262. So, the issue seems to be that when runners aren't on, the balls they hit find holes, and when runners are on, the balls they hit don't.

 

So, I think the answer to my original question might be, "luck."

[Sammy Sofa]

Look beyond the average. Think of all the times they've had someone on 3B with one or no outs and all they need is a decently struck fly ball and they can't even manage that even when the heart of the lineup is up. There's a key aspect where the lack of power is hurting them in those chances.

[Northside Blues]

Our three hole has a .610 OPS this year. We have gotten 10 XBH and 5 walks out of that spot - and 7 GIDPs.

 

Our four hole isn't doing much better. They also have just 10 XBH.

 

Our pitchers have as many HRs as our 2 hole does.

Our pitchers have as many HRs as our 3 hole does.

Our pitchers have as many HRs as our 4 hole does.

[champaignchris]

Our three hole has a .610 OPS this year. We have gotten 10 XBH and 5 walks out of that spot - and 7 GIDPs.

 

Our four hole isn't doing much better. They also have just 10 XBH.

 

Our pitchers have as many HRs as our 2 hole does.

Our pitchers have as many HRs as our 3 hole does.

Our pitchers have as many HRs as our 4 hole does.

 

So what you're saying is that a center fielder, who for his career has given you slightly better than average production for a center fielder, probably shouldn't be your #3 hitter?

 

This is quite the radical concept.

[Guest]

Darwin Barney w/ RISP: .400/.395/.457/.852, 18 RBI in 38 PAs.

 

All other Cubs w/ RISP: ..211/.311/.315/.626, 95 RBI in 382 PAs.

 

 

That's staggering.

[shnsajax]

Darwin Barney w/ RISP: .400/.395/.457/.852, 18 RBI in 38 PAs.

 

All other Cubs w/ RISP: ..211/.311/.315/.626, 95 RBI in 382 PAs.

 

 

That's staggering.

 

That's embarrassing.

[Ding Dong Johnson]

Yeah, take a walk every now and then.

[Northside Blues]

Tyler Colvin is 2 for 30 with no one on. The rest of the Cubs are hitting .311. Take away pitchers as well and we're at .321.

[champaignchris]

Tyler Colvin is 2 for 30 with no one on. The rest of the Cubs are hitting .311. Take away pitchers as well and we're at .321.

 

Bizarre.

 

More bizarre...

 

The Cubs have now gone 2 for 11 with RISP in each of 3 straight games, May 16-17-18.

[Guest]

Yeah, take a walk every now and then.

lol - exact same thing that I was thinking.

[DivineBovine]

Regarding clutch, I also think its way more likely that unclutch players exist than clutch players. In other words, it would be extremely rare that a player could flip on a switch and suddenly hit better when it was needed most, but it isn't too hard to imagine that a player can tense up during a critical moment and suck. That doesn't mean everyone with poor clutch numbers is unclutch, some may just suffer from luck and a small sample size.

 

Not that I would make personel decisions based on it or anything, but some people just don't perform well under pressure.

Can you imagine the pressure of being drafted, showing up for minor league camp and trying to perform? The whole process of going through HS, college & the minors will weed out the guys who are "unclutch".

 

That's a good point. Never really thought of that because I've never spent a ton of effort trying to debunk theories formed as a result of tiny sample sizes.

 

Also, I disagree that being "unclutch" is any more likely/feasible than being clutch. They're both bogus analyst talking points used to fill space on a broadcast.

 

 

 

Nah. I disagree. I believe in clutch.

 

I think golf is a great sport to measure this. Golfers have been choking for ages. Take Greg Norman for example. Greg Norman was the best player of his generation, and when majors came along, he'd choke. 2 major wins, when he's probably led 20. People can argue all they want regarding sample size, etc. But anyone who watched that Masters against Faldo saw a man choking. Here was a guy who played golf when he had no money, played through smaller tours when his paycheck depended on how he played, made it to the PGA tour and world #1 ranking, and he choked like a dog in majors.

 

If emotions can clearly affect the way one plays golf, I don't doubt it can affect the way one plays baseball.