tyler colvin's struggles

[treebird]

he looks lost. and it's not like he's playing a ton of defense to make up for it. i'm not saying i want a bunch of reed johnson out there, but i'm also not of the belief that we should be making a lot of efforts to find him at bats. i also can't really rule out the idea that he might be better off in iowa, especially if we want him starting next year. on the other hand, he's already 25. if he 's going to be a guy, he should be doing that by now.

 

what do people think?

[tfarks]

I'd just give him more time. I mean they could be playing Fukudome everyday, so they obviously need to find out if he's viable as a long term solution. Won't find that out on the bench or in Iowa. His patience seems to be improving some.

[Guest]

Hard to really tell too much with less than 40 PA. Walks are up, K's and IsoP are ever so slightly down. I can't imagine his 8% LD% and .130 BABIP will stay that way, and his 1 for 12 line against LHP seems bound to jump a bit too. I don't really see the cause for concern that wouldn't have been there before the season, and those will only be answered with time.

[CubColtPacer]

I'm not sure what to think. He obviously has struggled which is a big reason why his LD percentage is only 8 percent so far! Even with that horrible LD percentage his BABIP should be higher than .130 though.

 

On the other hand, he has walked more and struck out less than last year. He is hitting home runs at the same pace, hitting doubles at a slightly higher pace, hasn't hit a triple yet (but only had 5 last year). So basically his only big problem in the early going is that he isn't hitting singles.

 

And then look at his left/right splits so far:

 

vs left: 12 AB's, .083/.154/.083, 33.3% K percentage, 7.7% BB percentage

vs right: 22 AB's, .182/.280/.545, 22.7% K percentage, 12% BB percentage

 

So he's been utterly lost against left-handers so far this year and has had excellent power and a good strikeout/walk ratio against right-handers. Colvin didn't have a problem against left-handers last year but he didn't play against all types of left-handers last year either.

 

So I'm more inclined to think that he's just faced a few pitchers that weren't good for him. But it's really too soon to tell.

[Sammy Sofa]

Probably just a slow start. He'll get plenty of PA this year in the role he's in.

[Backtobanks]

I'm worried that he's going to turn out to be like Pena, but without the OBP. Low-average, lot's of power.

[Rob]

Yeah, way too small of a sample size to read anything into.

[Little Slide Rooter]

Pitchers have adjusted to him. Now he has to adjust to them.

[rawaction]

I think facing all the lefties has hurt him a lot. That and hitting in the 8th hole predominately.

[Sammy Sofa]

I think facing all the lefties has hurt him a lot. That and hitting in the 8th hole predominately.

 

He's really not that much worse a hitter against lefties as opposed to righties. Hell, most of his power show last season was against LH pitchers. Granted, he's had more PA against lefties, but I think he's just slumping in general.

[Soul]

Give him some time. It's mid April.

 

I'd rather not start shuffling players up & down yet. It's not like we aren't winning any games. We're doing alright, just not great. Maybe a bunch of guys will get hot and we'll string together some wins.

[Dr. Cub]

Give him some time. It's mid April.

 

I'd rather not start shuffling players up & down yet. It's not like we aren't winning any games. We're doing alright, just not great. Maybe a bunch of guys will get hot and we'll string together some wins.

 

 

Exactly. Maybe, if we didn't have our top 3 starters each with an ERA over 5.50, we would be doing even better.

[Rob]

This feels like it needs posted...

 

These are the thresholds at which statistics tend to stabilize:

 

50 PA: Swing %

100 PA: Contact Rate

150 PA: Strikeout Rate, Line Drive Rate, Pitches/PA

200 PA: Walk Rate, Groundball Rate, GB/FB

250 PA: Flyball Rate

300 PA: Home Run Rate, HR/FB

500 PA: OBP, SLG, OPS, 1B Rate, Popup Rate

550 PA: ISO

 

For more reading, check out this article on fangraphs.

[jersey cubs fan]

Has anybody considered the fact that Tyler Colvin isn't all that good? He's a left handed Francoeur with over 2000 professional PA of not very productive hitting. 2 week stretches of ugly results should be expected, not really alarming.

[rawaction]

Has anybody considered the fact that Tyler Colvin isn't all that good? He's a left handed Francoeur with over 2000 professional PA of not very productive hitting. 2 week stretches of ugly results should be expected, not really alarming.

 

Yeah, that's the most likely reason. But still he's not THIS bad.

[Soul]

Sure. I just don't want to draw conclusions about this season yet, even for players who I suspect aren't special.

 

Even if he's not a great player, he could still wind up having a good 2011.

[javy knows my name]

Has anybody considered the fact that Tyler Colvin isn't all that good? He's a left handed Francoeur with over 2000 professional PA of not very productive hitting. 2 week stretches of ugly results should be expected, not really alarming.

 

WOAHHHH JERSEY'S BACK

[CubColtPacer]

Has anybody considered the fact that Tyler Colvin isn't all that good? He's a left handed Francoeur with over 2000 professional PA of not very productive hitting. 2 week stretches of ugly results should be expected, not really alarming.

 

Welcome back Jersey. That's very possible, although he's been pretty good in his last 700 of those 2000 PA. And he's showing signs of improvement in all the major categories. But it very well could be a mirage-there's no doubt about that. He needs to put up about 2 more seasons of good numbers to really be trusted.

[treebird]

Has anybody considered the fact that Tyler Colvin isn't all that good? He's a left handed Francoeur with over 2000 professional PA of not very productive hitting. 2 week stretches of ugly results should be expected, not really alarming.

 

this is really what i was hoping to get at.

 

and welcome back, sir.

[TruffleShuffle]

Has anybody considered the fact that Tyler Colvin isn't all that good? He's a left handed Francoeur with over 2000 professional PA of not very productive hitting. 2 week stretches of ugly results should be expected, not really alarming.

 

Welcome back Jersey. That's very possible, although he's been pretty good in his last 700 of those 2000 PA. And he's showing signs of improvement in all the major categories. But it very well could be a mirage-there's no doubt about that. He needs to put up about 2 more seasons of good numbers to really be trusted.

 

he also had a home run per fly ball rate that was up in ryan howard/mark reynolds territory, which can't be expected to last.

[Tracer Bullet]

Has anybody considered the fact that Tyler Colvin isn't all that good? He's a left handed Francoeur with over 2000 professional PA of not very productive hitting. 2 week stretches of ugly results should be expected, not really alarming.

 

wb

[imb]

f off goony

[CubColtPacer]

Has anybody considered the fact that Tyler Colvin isn't all that good? He's a left handed Francoeur with over 2000 professional PA of not very productive hitting. 2 week stretches of ugly results should be expected, not really alarming.

 

Welcome back Jersey. That's very possible, although he's been pretty good in his last 700 of those 2000 PA. And he's showing signs of improvement in all the major categories. But it very well could be a mirage-there's no doubt about that. He needs to put up about 2 more seasons of good numbers to really be trusted.

 

he also had a home run per fly ball rate that was up in ryan howard/mark reynolds territory, which can't be expected to last.

 

True, which is why he needs to upgrade his K/BB ratio to be more than a .750 OPS 4th OF type. But the longer he is in the majors that number has continued to get slightly better. That's the number I'm focused on this year to see if Colvin can make improvements because he certainly has decent power in that bat. If that number was horrible so far this year during his slump I'd be a lot more concerned.

[Guest]

Quick, who has a higher MLB IsoD, Colvin or Aramis?

[treebird]

Quick, who has a higher MLB IsoD, Colvin or Aramis?

 

i understand why, as a cubs fan, you'd like to pretend tyler colvin's minor league track record didn't exist, i just don't know why you'd like to make such an assumption when it comes to actually evaluating the player.