What do most of us expect from some of the question marks?

[David]

in our lineup?

 

Don't expect great analysis out of me here, as I'm mostly jotting thoughts down and not as good at interpreting the advanced numbers as many others here (though I definitely like reading up on them and seeing others' analysis). You'll see what I mean.

 

The main guy that occurs to me is Aramis, who suddenly had his worst year, by far, as a Cub since we've had him. He did have an awful first half and rebounded later in the year, but he still wasn't producing what we've come to expect from him. I want to chalk it up to the 09 shoulder injury, but he hit so well after the injury that most of us had given up worrying about that. Even if he does rebound a bit, is his defense now so bad that he can't outhit it anymore?

 

Will Castro produce similarly to last year, take a step forward, or will he regress? I'd be satisfied with a similar year and I'd be ecstatic if he continued to progress and showed any level of improvement, considering how special his season was for his age. I'm really not sure what I expect, though.

 

As for LF, I had given up (probably foolishly so) on Soriano's chances of being very good after his 09 season, so a season like last year's would almost satisfy me, though a surprise rebound season would obviously be really nice. I can't say I'd put it past him, as one more of his ridiculous hot streaks last year would've made his numbers pretty respectable and those seem to just show up pretty randomly. He did have one or two last year, though, and he started the season very nicely.

 

Byrd, to me, isn't much of a question mark because I don't expect him to do much better or worse than he did last year. It'd be nice if he weren't hitting high in the order, but lineup order has never concerned me all that much.

 

I'd include Colvin... the only reason I don't is that I think he kinda sucks and I don't expect him to hit for enough power again to be as productive as he was overall despite his crappy patience.

 

A more minor question mark might be Soto in that I'd like to see him follow up 2010 with another good season. My only reason to doubt it would be his struggles after 08, but it seemed he got a bit unlucky with BABIP in 09 (IIRC) and with injuries. I'm pretty much expecting well above average production from him for 2011, though.

 

 

Thoughts? I know I hit on a lot of different things (and not to a very deep extent)...

[BigbadB1679666149]

I wonder how the team will respond to new management. Lou acted like he gave up on the team and the team played like they joined him in giving up on the season.

 

I have a bit of renewed vigor for this coming season, although not overwhelmingly so. I don't think the Cubs made any bad moves, and I do like quite a few of them. The bullpen looks to be one of the strong points this year, and they have a bunch of arms that can get games to the bullpen with a lead.

 

One can only hope that Soriano, Ramirez and Pena all did some offseason training to be healthy and ready to produce at a level their contracts expect them to produce. None are really at the end of their careers by any stretch, although they played 2010 like they were. I don't really know what to expect from this group. They could finish in 4th or 1st, but it's going to take a few career type years from several players in order to finish in 1st, mostly from the pitching staff. I wouldn't call any position on the field a weakness going into the season, but there aren't many positions that stand out, either.

 

Hopefully Quade didn't put too many of Lou's bad habits into his portfolio and the team can get off to a good start.

[Guest]

I forgot to hit on Pena...I expect his numbers to improve fairly substantially as his awful average is just bound to improve. Maybe something like .250/.380/.480 is reasonable...

 

I'm guessing most are expecting something along those lines.

 

 

Also, DeWitt... I'm not expecting much of anything from him, so if he and Baker can combine for solid production at 2B, great.

[Guest]

I wonder how the team will respond to new management. Lou acted like he gave up on the team and the team played like they joined him in giving up on the season.

 

I have a bit of renewed vigor for this coming season, although not overwhelmingly so. I don't think the Cubs made any bad moves, and I do like quite a few of them. The bullpen looks to be one of the strong points this year, and they have a bunch of arms that can get games to the bullpen with a lead.

 

One can only hope that Soriano, Ramirez and Pena all did some offseason training to be healthy and ready to produce at a level their contracts expect them to produce. None are really at the end of their careers by any stretch, although they played 2010 like they were. I don't really know what to expect from this group. They could finish in 4th or 1st, but it's going to take a few career type years from several players in order to finish in 1st, mostly from the pitching staff. I wouldn't call any position on the field a weakness going into the season, but there aren't many positions that stand out, either.

 

Hopefully Quade didn't put too many of Lou's bad habits into his portfolio and the team can get off to a good start.

 

 

Don't we all in early February?

 

I don't really think it would take career years... it just would take seasons more representative of the careers of certain guys than they had the last year or two... "bounceback" years. Those three are definitely major keys to making this lineup productive, though.

 

I expect the starting pitching to be extremely solid... none of them are dominant (although Z, Garza, and even Demp can potentially be that) but none of our starters make you worry that they're out there at all (assuming Silva isn't in the rotation). I'm excited to see what Cashner can do if we put him out there every 5th day, also.

 

The bullpen looks very solid in important spots, but who the hell knows? Bullpens are impossible to figure out.

[Sammy Sofa]

Pena and Aramis I'm pretty optimistic about since both are playing for their last big contracts. Short of injuries taking them down I'm really not worried about them at all.

[Guest]

Of the question marks you raised:

 

Aramis: I expect him to be below peak value, but better than last year. Basically take his second half numbers and I expect something similar this year. In other words, he'll be pretty good.

 

Castro: I expect the average to drop a bit, but I think he'll grow into some more power & patience.

 

Soriano: If he finishes above .800, I'll be happy.

 

Colvin: ugh, production from him could be anywhere. I don't think he'll keep up the same hr/fb ratio, which means he needs to start making more contact and being more patient to provide real value.

[Bull]

I wonder how the team will respond to new management. Lou acted like he gave up on the team and the team played like they joined him in giving up on the season.

 

I have a bit of renewed vigor for this coming season, although not overwhelmingly so. I don't think the Cubs made any bad moves, and I do like quite a few of them. The bullpen looks to be one of the strong points this year, and they have a bunch of arms that can get games to the bullpen with a lead.

 

One can only hope that Soriano, Ramirez and Pena all did some offseason training to be healthy and ready to produce at a level their contracts expect them to produce. None are really at the end of their careers by any stretch, although they played 2010 like they were. I don't really know what to expect from this group. They could finish in 4th or 1st, but it's going to take a few career type years from several players in order to finish in 1st, mostly from the pitching staff. I wouldn't call any position on the field a weakness going into the season, but there aren't many positions that stand out, either.

 

Hopefully Quade didn't put too many of Lou's bad habits into his portfolio and the team can get off to a good start.

This is it. There's no one on this team that is outstanding. Z and Soriano have had flashes of being able to "carry a team". With Sori, those only come in stretches and he can't do it over the course of the season. The biggest question mark is Zambrano. He's going to be good, and those that think he's "done" are nuts, but I do question whether he has enough in the tank to be the dominant stopper we've seen in the past.

 

Beyond that, there's no real force on this team, just a great group of complementary players. Hopefully several of them will be a notch better and that will be enough.

[Guest]

Pena and Aramis I'm pretty optimistic about since both are playing for their last big contracts. Short of injuries taking them down I'm really not worried about them at all.

 

Good points...although I never saw Aramis as one that'd be dogging it in non-contract years, anyway... so I'm not sure I could chalk up his 2010 to lack of effort.

[SouthSideRyan]

Pena was playing for his last big contract last year too

[Sammy Sofa]

Pena was playing for his last big contract last year too

 

Much of it was the result of being tremendously unlucky, and the odds are against that carrying over to a second year in a row.

[Guest]

I wonder how the team will respond to new management. Lou acted like he gave up on the team and the team played like they joined him in giving up on the season.

 

I have a bit of renewed vigor for this coming season, although not overwhelmingly so. I don't think the Cubs made any bad moves, and I do like quite a few of them. The bullpen looks to be one of the strong points this year, and they have a bunch of arms that can get games to the bullpen with a lead.

 

One can only hope that Soriano, Ramirez and Pena all did some offseason training to be healthy and ready to produce at a level their contracts expect them to produce. None are really at the end of their careers by any stretch, although they played 2010 like they were. I don't really know what to expect from this group. They could finish in 4th or 1st, but it's going to take a few career type years from several players in order to finish in 1st, mostly from the pitching staff. I wouldn't call any position on the field a weakness going into the season, but there aren't many positions that stand out, either.

 

Hopefully Quade didn't put too many of Lou's bad habits into his portfolio and the team can get off to a good start.

This is it. There's no one on this team that is outstanding. Z and Soriano have had flashes of being able to "carry a team". With Sori, those only come in stretches and he can't do it over the course of the season. The biggest question mark is Zambrano. He's going to be good, and those that think he's "done" are nuts, but I do question whether he has enough in the tank to be the dominant stopper we've seen in the past.

 

Beyond that, there's no real force on this team, just a great group of complementary players. Hopefully several of them will be a notch better and that will be enough.

 

The 08 team showed that you can be a damn good team without anyone putting up "superstar" numbers if you're solid throughout. We pretty much had .800-.900 OPS guys 1-8 and that was enough to score an assload of runs. Admittedly, that took a deal with the devil to somehow get great production out of Jim Edmonds for 3/4 of the season.

[SouthSideRyan]

Pena was playing for his last big contract last year too

 

Much of it was the result of being tremendously unlucky, and the odds are against that carrying over to a second year in a row.

 

But that has nothing to do with him being in a contract year. Give him normal luck, and his #s still aren't anything special.

[Little Slide Rooter]

Prett much every player on the team is a question mark. If Ramirez and Pena can be a solid 3-4, the rest of the team should be able to build well around them.

 

Fukudome and Castro should be a very good 1-2. If they can finally get over the catcher bat 7-8 crap, Soto should be a great number 5 guy, and a lot of managers would love to have Soriano and Byrd as their 6-7 hitters. As for the 8 spot, DeWitt and Baker could platoon to be a very solid bat at the end of the order.

[Keener98]

Pena was playing for his last big contract last year too

 

He also had a hurt foot for almost the entire year that he played on too.

[Sammy Sofa]

Pena was playing for his last big contract last year too

 

Much of it was the result of being tremendously unlucky, and the odds are against that carrying over to a second year in a row.

 

But that has nothing to do with him being in a contract year. Give him normal luck, and his #s still aren't anything special.

 

But as it was pointed out, he was also dealing with injuries, too.

 

Look, the "playing for a contract" theory isn't a hard and fast rule, but it's something to consider. Not only is Pena playing for a big contract since he's 32, but he's trying to bounce back from a season where he severely underperformed. It wouldn't surprise me to see him have a really decent year in the wake of that so long as he's not dealing with injuries again.

[Guest]

Something that concerns me about Castro is that 17 of his 29 walks came out of the 8th spot. He had 96 AB (I can't find the splits for PA, but this should be more than close enough for quick and dirty purposes) in the 8 spot vs 367 everywhere else (296 of those in the 2 spot - not that that is all that material). That's .177 BB/AB in the 8th spot vs. .033BB/AB everywhere else.

 

I know that the sample sizes are beyond weak and that it's dangerous to rely on the eye test, but the only reason I'm even bringing up lineup splits (which I HATE) is that I remember him getting very many unintentional intentional walks when he was hitting 8th. He was really getting pitched around, especially when he was knocking the cover off the ball early. Those obviously are not going to come near as often anywhere else in the lineup as when the pitcher is coming up next. And having a guy hitting that well in the 8th spot is a rare occurrence to begin with.

 

That being the case, I tend to think his numbers outside of the 8th spot are a little more representative of his current ability to draw walks at the major league level.

[SouthSideRyan]

Pena was playing for his last big contract last year too

 

Much of it was the result of being tremendously unlucky, and the odds are against that carrying over to a second year in a row.

 

But that has nothing to do with him being in a contract year. Give him normal luck, and his #s still aren't anything special.

 

But as it was pointed out, he was also dealing with injuries, too.

 

Look, the "playing for a contract" theory isn't a hard and fast rule, but it's something to consider. Not only is Pena playing for a big contract since he's 32, but he's trying to bounce back from a season where he severely underperformed. It wouldn't surprise me to see him have a really decent year in the wake of that so long as he's not dealing with injuries again.

 

I wouldn't be surprised to see him have a good year based on a dead cat bounce, and not having horrible luck. I don't see how you can attribute any part of his success this year to him being a contract year. If he has another bad season, are you going to attribute it to him pressing too much due to the contract year. I need something more than picking and choosing what seasons are good because of a contract push (if they're good) and what seasons aren't (if they're bad)

[woodchip2153]

Hasn't the contract year theory been proven to be false?

[Guest]

Hasn't the contract year theory been proven to be false?

 

I'm sure there are some individuals who will put significantly more effort/preparation into a contract year... but I don't think there's any way to apply any type of general rule about contract years and I think those guys would be fewer and further between than most people think. And you usually don't need numbers to pick them out (i.e. player shows up in unbelievable shape for the last year of his contract and, presumably, has a good season as a result of said preparation). Even then, you can't really prove it with those guys... you can only really speculate.

[mul21]

Something that concerns me about Castro is that 17 of his 29 walks came out of the 8th spot. He had 96 AB (I can't find the splits for PA, but this should be more than close enough for quick and dirty purposes) in the 8 spot vs 367 everywhere else (296 of those in the 2 spot - not that that is all that material). That's .177 BB/AB in the 8th spot vs. .033BB/AB everywhere else.

 

I know that the sample sizes are beyond weak and that it's dangerous to rely on the eye test, but the only reason I'm even bringing up lineup splits (which I HATE) is that I remember him getting very many unintentional intentional walks when he was hitting 8th. He was really getting pitched around, especially when he was knocking the cover off the ball early. Those obviously are not going to come near as often anywhere else in the lineup as when the pitcher is coming up next. And having a guy hitting that well in the 8th spot is a rare occurrence to begin with.

 

That being the case, I tend to think his numbers outside of the 8th spot are a little more representative of his current ability to draw walks at the major league level.

 

Which is why, if he does hit in the 2nd spot, it's so vital for Aramis to have a good year. I really think it's more important for Castro, being so young, than it would be for a lot of other guys that ARam has a good season so he actually gets pitches to hit.

[moochpuppy]

What about giving Sean Marshall another legit shot at the rotation or is he just too valuable in the pen?

[UMFan83]

Even less analysis than David. My opinion on whether X player will perform better, worse or the same as last year. I'll predict slash stats for the players I feel like doing it for.

 

Castro - better .288/.340/.432/.772

DeWitt - same

Ramirez - better, .290/.374/.510/.884 (I am going with a last harrah season for ARam, ala 2009 Lee)

Pena - better, .241/.366/.490/.856

Soriano - same

Soto - same

Byrd - same

Colvin - worse, i want to believe in colvin, i really do.

 

Dempster - worse

Garza - slightly better

Zambrano - same

Wells - slightly better

If Silva is 5th starter - worse

If Cashner or another pitcher is 5th starter - not enough info to judge

 

Marmol - worse, gives up a few more HRs this year

Wood - worse, was unstoppable for NYY, can't be that good this year can he

Marshall - same, I think he's legit and figured it out in his role

 

Don't really care/can't predict a role or usage for everyone else.

 

Overall, I see a slightly below average offense, slightly above average pitching and somewhere in the 78-84 win range.

[Sammy Sofa]

Pena was playing for his last big contract last year too

 

Much of it was the result of being tremendously unlucky, and the odds are against that carrying over to a second year in a row.

 

But that has nothing to do with him being in a contract year. Give him normal luck, and his #s still aren't anything special.

 

But as it was pointed out, he was also dealing with injuries, too.

 

Look, the "playing for a contract" theory isn't a hard and fast rule, but it's something to consider. Not only is Pena playing for a big contract since he's 32, but he's trying to bounce back from a season where he severely underperformed. It wouldn't surprise me to see him have a really decent year in the wake of that so long as he's not dealing with injuries again.

 

I wouldn't be surprised to see him have a good year based on a dead cat bounce, and not having horrible luck. I don't see how you can attribute any part of his success this year to him being a contract year. If he has another bad season, are you going to attribute it to him pressing too much due to the contract year. I need something more than picking and choosing what seasons are good because of a contract push (if they're good) and what seasons aren't (if they're bad)

 

There's any number of reasons as to why he could have a bad or a good year. I simply stated some as to why I think he'll have a good year. It means nothing. Regardless of what I think, he could go out there and be even worse than last year.

[CubColtPacer]

What about giving Sean Marshall another legit shot at the rotation or is he just too valuable in the pen?

 

Too valuable in the pen, too many question marks about being able to start a full season, lots of decent starting options for 1 spot. I feel bad for him, but transitioning him to the rotation would be a major mistake at this point. Even if I knew he was going to be successful (4.00 ERA, 180 innings for example) I'm not sure I would do it because it blocks the young pitching even further (especially someone like Cashner) and hurts the bullpen so much.

[CubColtPacer]

Even less analysis than David. My opinion on whether X player will perform better, worse or the same as last year. I'll predict slash stats for the players I feel like doing it for.

 

Castro - better .288/.340/.432/.772

DeWitt - same

Ramirez - better, .290/.374/.510/.884 (I am going with a last harrah season for ARam, ala 2009 Lee)

Pena - better, .241/.366/.490/.856

Soriano - same

Soto - same

Byrd - same

Colvin - worse, i want to believe in colvin, i really do.

 

 

Overall, I see a slightly below average offense, slightly above average pitching and somewhere in the 78-84 win range.

 

I don't see how that offense is slightly below average. Last year's team was a little below average offensively and you have two major upgrades (Pena over Lee and Ramirez being a ton better). Then you have Castro being better and DeWitt being the same which is an upgrade over what Theriot gave the Cubs last year. To counter that, you only have 1 position getting worse. If all that goes true, the Cubs are probably a top 5 offense.