Pujols signs with Angels pg 151

[17 Seconds]

mark teixeira can't even ops .850 as a switch hitter in [expletive] yankee stadium. yeah, awesome contract.

[SouthSideRyan]

Teix and Gonzalez have well-rounded games, including excellent defense and average or better baserunning, as well as better body types.

Isn't that accounted for in the WAR?

In the historical WARs, yes.

 

IMO the better balance means the future WARs should trend better.

 

Why? Does a decline phase not affect baserunning and defense??

[17 Seconds]

Career K%

 

Howard- 27.4

Fielder- 18.5

 

this argument is laughable

Strikeouts don't matter didn't you get the memo

 

that's an incredibly obnoxious comment, and you know it.

 

the "strikeouts don't matter that much" argument is made in refernece to how the strikeouts actually affect the game.

 

when determining how a player is likely to perform in future situations, strikeouts are very important.

I thought a guy with a .900 OPS and 150 Ks is equally as valuable as a guy with a .900 OPS and 50 Ks. Do I have that wrong?

 

did you even read my post? are you intentionally pretending not to understand, or are you seriously failing to grasp this simple premise?

[dew1679666265]

Teix and Gonzalez have well-rounded games, including excellent defense and average or better baserunning, as well as better body types.

 

FanGraphs disagrees on the baserunning:

Teix: -8.5

Gonzalez: -18.8

 

And as Bob Sanders said, the defense and baserunning are accounted for in the WAR, they're what makes Teix a little better than Prince overall and isn't enough to make Gonzalez better than Prince overall.

 

I guess B-R has Teix at average-ish, but Gonzalez well into the negative.

Teix: -0 (what's with the negative?)

Gonzalez: -15

Edited November 10, 2011 by dew

[Guest]

 

that's an incredibly obnoxious comment, and you know it.

 

the "strikeouts don't matter that much" argument is made in refernece to how the strikeouts actually affect the game.

 

when determining how a player is likely to perform in future situations, strikeouts are very important.

I thought a guy with a .900 OPS and 150 Ks is equally as valuable as a guy with a .900 OPS and 50 Ks. Do I have that wrong?

 

He just answered that question.

[davearm2]

Career K%

 

Howard- 27.4

Fielder- 18.5

 

this argument is laughable

Strikeouts don't matter didn't you get the memo

 

that's an incredibly obnoxious comment, and you know it.

 

the "strikeouts don't matter that much" argument is made in refernece to how the strikeouts actually affect the game.

 

when determining how a player is likely to perform in future situations, strikeouts are very important.

I thought a guy with a .900 OPS and 150 Ks is equally as valuable as a guy with a .900 OPS and 50 Ks. Do I have that wrong?

 

did you even read my post? are you intentionally pretending not to understand, or are you seriously failing to grasp this simple premise?

I'm failing to grasp your point.

 

Both Fielder and Howard have over 6 years of bigleague track record -- 4210 PAs for Fielder, and 4409 for Howard.

 

Howard has basically matched Fielder offensively, despite the higher strikeout rate -- .929 OPS for Fielder, .928 for Howard.

 

So I guess I need it explained what the strikeout rate tells us about how these two players are "likely to perform in future situations".

 

Strikeout rate holds some predictive value for 19 year olds in A ball. It doesn't for established ML veterans.

[davearm2]

Teix and Gonzalez have well-rounded games, including excellent defense and average or better baserunning, as well as better body types.

Isn't that accounted for in the WAR?

In the historical WARs, yes.

 

IMO the better balance means the future WARs should trend better.

 

Why? Does a decline phase not affect baserunning and defense??

The hypothesis is that having a better all-around game mitigates a guy's collapse rate.

 

Perhaps someone with a BP subscription can do some checking in PECOTA and see if this is accurate.

[davearm2]

How's that Teix contract working out?

You realize this does not support the argument for signing Fielder, right?

 

Sure it does. Your ideal, perfect world scenario is going to be a terrible contract under your narrow-minded definition. In retrospect you wouldn't sign him and would sign Jay Gibbons to play 1B, and your team would be terrible.

If I think Teix is a better bet to age well than Fielder, and Teix's contract turns out to be a mistake, does that make me more willing to sign Fielder, or less willing to sign Fielder?

[davearm2]

 

that's an incredibly obnoxious comment, and you know it.

 

the "strikeouts don't matter that much" argument is made in refernece to how the strikeouts actually affect the game.

 

when determining how a player is likely to perform in future situations, strikeouts are very important.

I thought a guy with a .900 OPS and 150 Ks is equally as valuable as a guy with a .900 OPS and 50 Ks. Do I have that wrong?

 

He just answered that question.

He did?

[Hairyducked Idiot]

He did?

 

Value and predictiveness are not the same thing.

 

Strikeouts and other outs are fairly close in value. They are not fairly close in predictiveness.

[davearm2]

He did?

 

Value and predictiveness are not the same thing.

 

Strikeouts and other outs are fairly close in value. They are not fairly close in predictiveness.

There's almost no predictive value for these guys though.

 

Like I said, that theory applies to minor leaguers or really young/raw guys.

[sneakypower]

He did?

 

Value and predictiveness are not the same thing.

 

Strikeouts and other outs are fairly close in value. They are not fairly close in predictiveness.

There's almost no predictive value for these guys though.

 

Like I said, that theory applies to minor leaguers or really young/raw guys.

you can't honestly be serious with this insane nonsense

[mookie]

 

Both Fielder and Howard have over 6 years of bigleague track record -- 4210 PAs for Fielder, and 4409 for Howard.

 

Howard has basically matched Fielder offensively, despite the higher strikeout rate -- .929 OPS for Fielder, .928 for Howard.

 

So I guess I need it explained what the strikeout rate tells us about how these two players are "likely to perform in future situations".

 

Strikeout rate holds some predictive value for 19 year olds in A ball. It doesn't for established ML veterans.

 

Age considerations should be placed here. Howard is older than than Fielder, and has thus played through almost all of his "prime" years while "matching" Fielder's output. I would be willing to bet that if we wait a few years, Prince will outperform Howard during the same "prime" years because he doesn't have as much of a flawed swing as Howard.

[SouthSideRyan]

How's that Teix contract working out?

You realize this does not support the argument for signing Fielder, right?

 

Sure it does. Your ideal, perfect world scenario is going to be a terrible contract under your narrow-minded definition. In retrospect you wouldn't sign him and would sign Jay Gibbons to play 1B, and your team would be terrible.

If I think Teix is a better bet to age well than Fielder, and Teix's contract turns out to be a mistake, does that make me more willing to sign Fielder, or less willing to sign Fielder?

 

It makes you completely ignorant of what it takes to sign a top-flight talent.

[davearm2]

He did?

 

Value and predictiveness are not the same thing.

 

Strikeouts and other outs are fairly close in value. They are not fairly close in predictiveness.

There's almost no predictive value for these guys though.

 

Like I said, that theory applies to minor leaguers or really young/raw guys.

you can't honestly be serious with this insane nonsense

Well answer for me what it tells us.

 

Howard is a .928 OPS hitter in ~4400 major league PAs, and he has a high K rate.

 

Fielder is a .929 OPS hitter in ~4200 major league PAs, and he has a lower K rate.

 

What does the difference in K rate tell us about future production?

[SouthSideRyan]

Howard has less margin for error going forward because he needs to keep a respectable BABIP & HR/FB rate in order to keep his BA above abysmal. His BA needs to stay above abysmal in order for him to have a good OBP and SLG.

[davearm2]

How's that Teix contract working out?

You realize this does not support the argument for signing Fielder, right?

 

Sure it does. Your ideal, perfect world scenario is going to be a terrible contract under your narrow-minded definition. In retrospect you wouldn't sign him and would sign Jay Gibbons to play 1B, and your team would be terrible.

If I think Teix is a better bet to age well than Fielder, and Teix's contract turns out to be a mistake, does that make me more willing to sign Fielder, or less willing to sign Fielder?

 

It makes you completely ignorant of what it takes to sign a top-flight talent.

It takes a buttload of money.

 

Way to avoid the question.

 

Like I said, banging on Teix's contract does not support the argument for signing Fielder.

[Hairyducked Idiot]

Well answer for me what it tells us.

 

Howard is a .928 OPS hitter in ~4400 major league PAs, and he has a high K rate.

 

Fielder is a .929 OPS hitter in ~4200 major league PAs, and he has a lower K rate.

 

What does the difference in K rate tell us about future production?

 

That Howard is a poorer bet going forward.

 

And oh, look, he did have a major offensive collapse.

[SouthSideRyan]

It takes a buttload of money.

 

Way to avoid the question.

 

Like I said, banging on Teix's contract does not support the argument for signing Fielder.

 

I want you to say right now that Fielder's and Pujols's contracts will turn out worse than Teixiera's

[Sammy Sofa]

 

Both Fielder and Howard have over 6 years of bigleague track record -- 4210 PAs for Fielder, and 4409 for Howard.

 

Howard has basically matched Fielder offensively, despite the higher strikeout rate -- .929 OPS for Fielder, .928 for Howard.

 

So I guess I need it explained what the strikeout rate tells us about how these two players are "likely to perform in future situations".

 

Strikeout rate holds some predictive value for 19 year olds in A ball. It doesn't for established ML veterans.

 

Age considerations should be placed here. Howard is older than than Fielder, and has thus played through almost all of his "prime" years while "matching" Fielder's output. I would be willing to bet that if we wait a few years, Prince will outperform Howard during the same "prime" years because he doesn't have as much of a flawed swing as Howard.

 

[davearm2]But he's fat.[/davearm2]

[Guest]

 

Both Fielder and Howard have over 6 years of bigleague track record -- 4210 PAs for Fielder, and 4409 for Howard.

 

Howard has basically matched Fielder offensively, despite the higher strikeout rate -- .929 OPS for Fielder, .928 for Howard.

 

So I guess I need it explained what the strikeout rate tells us about how these two players are "likely to perform in future situations".

 

Strikeout rate holds some predictive value for 19 year olds in A ball. It doesn't for established ML veterans.

 

Age considerations should be placed here. Howard is older than than Fielder, and has thus played through almost all of his "prime" years while "matching" Fielder's output. I would be willing to bet that if we wait a few years, Prince will outperform Howard during the same "prime" years because he doesn't have as much of a flawed swing as Howard.

 

[davearm2]But he's fat.[/davearm2]

Also splits. Howard is almost useless against lefties.

 

I'm squarely in the Prince camp and by as wide a margin as his waste line. Pujols injury history scares me. That said, either one for 6 years would make me do cartwheels.

 

Also with regard to Howard vs. Prince there is this:

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/comparison.aspx?playerid=4613&playerid2=2154&playerid3=&position=1B&page=5&type=full

 

We need to stop being lazy.

[davearm2]

It takes a buttload of money.

 

Way to avoid the question.

 

Like I said, banging on Teix's contract does not support the argument for signing Fielder.

 

I want you to say right now that Fielder's and Pujols's contracts will turn out worse than Teixiera's

I have no earthly idea how this will end.

 

What I do know is that I would have been more comfortable offering Teix his contract than offering Fielder the same deal (8/180), or Pujols one that's say 25% larger (8/225).

 

If you're telling me Teix's deal sucks, then I'm even more certain than before that I don't want to offer those other two deals.

 

Not rocket science, friends.

[SouthSideRyan]

I'm not telling you Tex's deal sucks. I'm saying it's an albatross, never coming back contract under your dumbass definition.

[Sammy Sofa]

That's what dave does; tries to boil everything down to only two choices. Tex's contract either sucks or it doesn't. There's absolutely no other answer to him.

[sneakypower]

when Teixeira hit FA, he was 28 and had averaged 35 batting runs for his previous 5 years

when Fielder hit FA, he was 27 and had averaged 43.4 batting runs for his previous 5 years

 

you're signing a much better hitter with Prince than you did with Teixeira