Pujols signs with Angels pg 151

[davearm2]

It's not a "bad contract" for the duration of the contract, hence the advantage when a team can take the hit of the last couple of years after reaping the benefits of the good years.

Soriano was a bad contract from day one, and just about everyone here thought so.

 

Ditto Werth, Zito, Howard, Wells, etc.

 

Because none of those players would give you the exceptional production on the front end to make the hit on the back end acceptable. Pujols and Fielder are not comparable players to those guys.

Fielder absolutely is comparable.

 

Pujols is better, but several years older too.

[17 Seconds]

how is fielder comparable to those guys?

[Sammy Sofa]

It's not a "bad contract" for the duration of the contract, hence the advantage when a team can take the hit of the last couple of years after reaping the benefits of the good years.

Soriano was a bad contract from day one, and just about everyone here thought so.

 

Ditto Werth, Zito, Howard, Wells, etc.

 

Wow, I couldn't have asked for a more perfect post proving my "Soriano has left Cubs fans traumatized"-theory if I had begged for one.

 

How are those guys an argument against signing Fielder or Pujols? People knew those were bad contracts because they'd never give you the top shelf production that could justify the backend expense.

Soriano hasn't left me traumatized. I consider Fielder in the same class as him, and Howard and Werth. He's not elite, he's just the best available, flaws and all. Go check the WAR numbers and you'll see I'm right.

 

Pujols is simply too old for me to want to make a huge bet on.

 

The [expletive]? Fielder and Howard's WAR numbers are pretty different over the last five seasons. Fielder and Werth are more similar in that regard (Fielder is better), but Werth is almost five years older. Werth's seasons up until Fielder's age he was a 6 WAR player.

[davearm2]

how is fielder comparable to those guys?

To Ryan Howard? Seriously?

 

They're both slugging, unathletic first basemen that hurt you in the field and on the bases. Howard slugs a little more. Fielder gets on base a little more. The WAR numbers are basically a wash.

 

What the other guys give up at the plate, they make up for in the field and on the bases.

 

I mean really. Just do a little homework before you come with this weak sauce.

[Sammy Sofa]

Ryan Howard the last 5 seasons: a 14.5 WAR player.

 

Fielder: 19.9

 

According to Fangraphs it's 14.3 vs. 22.

 

Y'know, a wash.

[davearm2]

Baseball-Reference WAR statistics, in the four seasons leading up to free agency.

 

See if you can tell these players apart without looking it up.

 

	P1	P2	P3	P4
Y1	2.8	2.1	4.0	5.8
Y2	4.2	6.1	0.8	2.6
Y3	3.1	2.7	1.7	2.8
Y4	5.2	5.2	5.7	4.4
Total	15.3	16.1	12.2	15.6

[Guest]

It's not a "bad contract" for the duration of the contract, hence the advantage when a team can take the hit of the last couple of years after reaping the benefits of the good years.

Soriano was a bad contract from day one, and just about everyone here thought so.

 

Ditto Werth, Zito, Howard, Wells, etc.

 

Wow, I couldn't have asked for a more perfect post proving my "Soriano has left Cubs fans traumatized"-theory if I had begged for one.

 

How are those guys an argument against signing Fielder or Pujols? People knew those were bad contracts because they'd never give you the top shelf production that could justify the backend expense.

Soriano hasn't left me traumatized. I consider Fielder in the same class as him, and Howard and Werth. He's not elite, he's just the best available, flaws and all. Go check the WAR numbers and you'll see I'm right.

 

Pujols is simply too old for me to want to make a huge bet on.

I can respect this line of reasoning, though I wonder how often a free agent will come around that will actually be someone you'd get behind. Obviously no pitchers - too risky. Probably nobody above 30. Noone with a bad body. You've questioned Kemp because he's really only had one good year (I agree with that one, btw).

 

I think with your approach, you'd better be very successful at building from within because I just don't see you pulling the trigger on big contracts very often.

[davearm2]

Ryan Howard the last 5 seasons: a 14.5 WAR player.

 

Fielder: 19.9

 

According to Fangraphs it's 14.3 vs. 22.

 

Y'know, a wash.

So you're saying Howard's production tailed off after he signed his big contract. Huh.

[Sammy Sofa]

Baseball-Reference WAR statistics, in the four seasons leading up to free agency.

 

See if you can tell these players apart without looking it up.

 

	P1	P2	P3	P4
Y1	2.8	2.1	4.0	5.8
Y2	4.2	6.1	0.8	2.6
Y3	3.1	2.7	1.7	2.8
Y4	5.2	5.2	5.7	4.4
Total	15.3	16.1	12.2	15.6

 

Howard, Fielder, Werth.

 

Werth, almost 5 years older; Howard, 3 years older.

 

And, as I pointed out, the Fangraphs analysis is even more favorable to the younger, better Prince.

 

But sure, y'know, the same players.

[Guest]

There's peripheral reasons why Howard and Soriano are not the best comps for Fielder's trajectory, and the fact that both were three years older when they signed their big deal is an enormous consideration. However, it is a good reminder that players of Fielder's caliber do not exactly have the same chasm between peak performance and albatross that HOFers like Pujols do.

[Sammy Sofa]

Ryan Howard the last 5 seasons: a 14.5 WAR player.

 

Fielder: 19.9

 

According to Fangraphs it's 14.3 vs. 22.

 

Y'know, a wash.

So you're saying Howard's production tailed off after he signed his big contract. Huh.

 

No, I'm saying Howard is a rather streaky player with relatively drastic splits who shouldn't have gotten the contract he got. Fielder is a better, more consistent hitter, plus he's younger.

[davearm2]

 

Howard, Fielder, Werth.

Wrong.

 

Werth, almost 5 years older; Howard, 3 years older.

Fielder, almost 100# overweight.

 

And, as I pointed out, the Fangraphs analysis is even more favorable to the younger, better Prince.

Don't forget more expensive.

 

Look you can't paint the Howard and Werth contracts as awful in one breath, and pine for Fielder in the next. It's pure foolishness. What little separates them as players, is mitigated by the other factors (body, cost, etc.)

[Guest]

Jason Werth has contributed over 100 million dollars of value in the 5 years since he was Prince Fielder's age.

[Sammy Sofa]

 

Howard, Fielder, Werth.

Wrong.

 

I'm looking them up now and I have no [expletive] clue what numbers you're going by. You're using BR, right? Here's Howard in the last 5 years: 2.6 2.8 4.4 2.0 2.7.

 

Nevermind, I see what it is; the formatting was throwing me off and I thought it was 3 players and not 4.

 

Werth, almost 5 years older; Howard, 3 years older.

Fielder, almost 100# overweight.

 

So that automatically ages him at least 3 years?

 

And, as I pointed out, the Fangraphs analysis is even more favorable to the younger, better Prince.

Don't forget more expensive.

 

Right, because he's younger and better.

 

Look you can't paint the Howard and Werth contracts as awful in one breath, and pine for Fielder in the next. It's pure foolishness. What little separates them as players, is mitigated by the other factors (body, cost, etc.)

 

Sure I can. He's a younger, better player.

Edited November 10, 2011 by Sammy Sofa

[davell]

That perfect 26 to 28 year old free agent isn't hitting the market anymore. Teams are locking their guys up earlier and earlier. And it's just going to get worse. Signing a Pujols or Fielder should give the Cubs plenty of time to get pieces around them in time to build around them while they're still really, really good players. There's almost no way we won't technically overpay for someone like this, but if it gives us even a true 4 year window where we're contenders and getting huge production out of them, then it's worth it as far as I'm concerned.

[davearm2]

That perfect 26 to 28 year old free agent isn't hitting the market anymore. Teams are locking their guys up earlier and earlier. And it's just going to get worse. Signing a Pujols or Fielder should give the Cubs plenty of time to get pieces around them in time to build around them while they're still really, really good players. There's almost no way we won't technically overpay for someone like this, but if it gives us even a true 4 year window where we're contenders and getting huge production out of them, then it's worth it as far as I'm concerned.

I could get behind that if the contract is 6 years.

[Sammy Sofa]

That perfect 26 to 28 year old free agent isn't hitting the market anymore. Teams are locking their guys up earlier and earlier. And it's just going to get worse. Signing a Pujols or Fielder should give the Cubs plenty of time to get pieces around them in time to build around them while they're still really, really good players. There's almost no way we won't technically overpay for someone like this, but if it gives us even a true 4 year window where we're contenders and getting huge production out of them, then it's worth it as far as I'm concerned.

I could get behind that if the contract is 6 years.

 

Sure, but it's not like, say, 8 years, would suddenly make it a crippling deal.

[davearm2]

Look you can't paint the Howard and Werth contracts as awful in one breath, and pine for Fielder in the next. It's pure foolishness. What little separates them as players, is mitigated by the other factors (body, cost, etc.)

 

Sure I can. He's a younger, better player.

You're out of your gourd. If 5/125 is laughably bad for Howard, then there's absolutely no defending something like 6/150 or 7/175 for Fielder. There's just not that much separating these guys.

[Sammy Sofa]

Look you can't paint the Howard and Werth contracts as awful in one breath, and pine for Fielder in the next. It's pure foolishness. What little separates them as players, is mitigated by the other factors (body, cost, etc.)

 

Sure I can. He's a younger, better player.

You're out of your gourd. If 5/125 is laughably bad for Howard, then there's absolutely no defending something like 6/150 or 7/175 for Fielder. There's just not that much separating these guys.

 

Except for age and better offensive consistency and splits.

[davell]

6 years for either of them? I'd certainly prefer that as well, but I think Fielder is a shoo in to get 8. I can possibly see Pujols take a shorter deal, especially if it puts him as the highest per year average ever. That said, at Fielder's age, I think he'd be just fine through 6 years probably anyway. So, I have no issue going 8 for him. Pujols? I think after 6, we'll see a substantial drop off, so if we gave him 10, it'll be a situation where the system is going to have to pick up the slack somewhat to offset it. That said, I feel confident that it will, so again, while not nearly ideal, I'd still give him the deal, because you're still getting 5 or 6 excellent years out of him, better than Fielder's upside. So,I'd take the risk and be confident that the system picks up the slack later in the deal. But, to me, if either of these guys helped us to a single championship, then it's worth overpaying for.

[davearm2]

That perfect 26 to 28 year old free agent isn't hitting the market anymore. Teams are locking their guys up earlier and earlier. And it's just going to get worse. Signing a Pujols or Fielder should give the Cubs plenty of time to get pieces around them in time to build around them while they're still really, really good players. There's almost no way we won't technically overpay for someone like this, but if it gives us even a true 4 year window where we're contenders and getting huge production out of them, then it's worth it as far as I'm concerned.

I could get behind that if the contract is 6 years.

 

Sure, but it's not like, say, 8 years, would suddenly make it a crippling deal.

Again with the crippling garbage? As if that's the only reason not to do it. Sheesh.

[davearm2]

Look you can't paint the Howard and Werth contracts as awful in one breath, and pine for Fielder in the next. It's pure foolishness. What little separates them as players, is mitigated by the other factors (body, cost, etc.)

 

Sure I can. He's a younger, better player.

You're out of your gourd. If 5/125 is laughably bad for Howard, then there's absolutely no defending something like 6/150 or 7/175 for Fielder. There's just not that much separating these guys.

 

Except for age and better offensive consistency and splits.

Just stop and listen to yourself for a minute. Consistency? Splits? You're really reaching now.

[Sammy Sofa]

Look you can't paint the Howard and Werth contracts as awful in one breath, and pine for Fielder in the next. It's pure foolishness. What little separates them as players, is mitigated by the other factors (body, cost, etc.)

 

Sure I can. He's a younger, better player.

You're out of your gourd. If 5/125 is laughably bad for Howard, then there's absolutely no defending something like 6/150 or 7/175 for Fielder. There's just not that much separating these guys.

 

Except for age and better offensive consistency and splits.

Just stop and listen to yourself for a minute. Consistency? Splits? You're really reaching now.

 

Really? Howard is pretty notorious for how relatively drastic his splits are. He's now arguably a platoon player with how much worse he is against LH pitchers.

[davearm2]

6 years for either of them? I'd certainly prefer that as well, but I think Fielder is a shoo in to get 8. I can possibly see Pujols take a shorter deal, especially if it puts him as the highest per year average ever. That said, at Fielder's age, I think he'd be just fine through 6 years probably anyway. So, I have no issue going 8 for him. Pujols? I think after 6, we'll see a substantial drop off, so if we gave him 10, it'll be a situation where the system is going to have to pick up the slack somewhat to offset it. That said, I feel confident that it will, so again, while not nearly ideal, I'd still give him the deal, because you're still getting 5 or 6 excellent years out of him, better than Fielder's upside. So,I'd take the risk and be confident that the system picks up the slack later in the deal. But, to me, if either of these guys helped us to a single championship, then it's worth overpaying for.

And if Soriano had helped the Cubs to a single championship, then he would have been worth it too.

 

I have Pujols being at a 6+ win level for another 4 years, then sliding pretty dramatically.

 

Fielder, I have a very hard time projecting, a) because of his body type, and b) because his production to date has been so up and down.

[Sammy Sofa]

Again with the crippling garbage? As if that's the only reason not to do it. Sheesh.

 

Actually, it's not garbage; for me that's the only real reason to not go after players like Fielder or Pujols when the team has a serious need for a 1B and a middle of the order bat and they have serious money to spend and even more coming off the books after next year. The Cubs are fortunate enough to be the type of team that can continually roll with such contracts going forward and won't be crippled or hamstrung paying these guys.