Brandon Guyer and other prospects the Cubs could see in '11

[CubsWin]

This is an exciting year for the Cubs minor league system, if not for the major league club. Last season, the Cubs called up several first-timers to the northside. Oddly, many of the ones who might stick had their last names start with the letter "C". Castro, Cashner, Coleman, Colvin and Castillo. They were joined by Darwin Barney and Jeff Russell as guys who are likely to contribute in the future. That's seven players making their debut in one season. What will this year bring?

 

Brandon Guyer seems to have put it all together. He may not be an all-star caliber OFer at the major league level, but he's been performing like one at the lower levels ever since he regained his swing following an injury in May. Guyer put together an off-the-charts 2nd half, and it apparently has continued into his stint in Venezuelan Winter League. Following his .344/.398/.588 line with 30 SB in 33 attempts in AA this season, Brandon is hitting .348/.444/.435 in 69 ABs to lead the Aragua Tigers in hitting. He also has 4 SB without getting caught yet. Guyer joined the Cubs organization in '07. He started to figure things out two years later when he hit .347/.407/.453 in 265 ABs in Daytona in '09. There's an open OF spot on the Cubs bench and with a strong spring, Guyer could break camp with the Cubs.

 

Chris Carpenter has struggled with control problems as a starting pitcher throughout his rise in the Cubs system. But some of that wildness could be due to the fact that he has dealt with many stints on the DL. The Cubs moved him to the pen during the Arizona Fall League this year, and he impressed with an upper-90s fastball that hit 100 more than once. Kerry Wood will likely see some time on the DL himself this season, and when he does, Carpenter could be the man to fill his set up roll. He would have to be added to the 40-man roster to be called up, but the Cubs have a depth of AAAA pitchers on their 40-man and if Carpenter is throwing heat like he did this fall, it should be an easy decision.

 

Chris Archer will likely start the year in Iowa, but if he continues putting the type of numbers he did last season (15-3, 2.34 ERA, 142.1 IP, 106 H, 149 K, more ground outs than flyouts with opponents hitting just .200 against him), he could be the first arm called up in case of injury or ineffectiveness in the rotation. The guy's slider has been described as unhittable when it's on, and it was on a lot last season. Archer is a power pitcher with a fastball in the mid-90s and he gave up just 6 HRs in 142.1 innings. You don't see that too often.

 

Robinson Chirinos has been in the organization for 10 years. He started as a jack-of-all-trades infielder but struggled with the bat. In '08, he made the switch to catcher part-time and coincidentally, and rather magically, started hitting. He finished that season going .275/.394/441. In '09, he was almost exclusively a catcher and he hit .294/.396/.519. And last year at AA and AAA, he hit .326/.416/.583. He's twice been named the Cubs best defensive catching prospect by Baseball America. At 26 years old, he appears ready to be the back-up to Geovany Soto allowing Welington Castillo, who is almost 3 years his younger, to continue refining his play in AAA.

 

Others who could get their first taste of the bigs this season are OFer Brett Jackson and pitchers Kyle Smit, Rafael Dolis and Alberto Cabrera. I think it's fair to say the Cubs system is producing. And with the wealth of talent 20 and under, newcomer Hayden Simpson, prospects like 21-year-olds Trey McNutt and Josh Vitters plus the 9th selection in this year's Amateur Draft, it's best days are likely still ahead.

Edited December 31, 2010 by CubsWin

[toonsterwu]

Few thoughts:

 

1) Brandon Guyer - focused only on baseball at UVA. I'm starting to buy into the idea that he has improved enough to get a chance to be a starting OF in the bigs (that said, I had always viewed him as an Eric Byrnes/Reed Johnson type, and both of those guys started in the bigs a bit as well). My guess is that he'll likely start in Iowa, as I think it'll be hard for him to break north with the way the roster is currently set up. Not impossible, though.

 

2) Chris Carpenter and Jay jackson - I believe both of these guys will probably get a look this year. They both could have sleeper chances to break north, since many of our current middle relief options aren't power arms (Marcos Mateo is about the only one that really can run the fastball up there), but I think both start in Iowa.

 

3) Chris Archer and Brett Jackson - It sure feels like the organization is pushing both of these kids hard. Personally, I'd like to see Jackson start in AA, but I think the org may be hoping for him to be up by midseason. If Archer has a strong run, I could see them push him up for rotation duty in the late summer.

 

4) Alberto Cabrera - I could see him emerge and join the big league squad out of the pen. I'm not that sold that he'll make it as a starter, so I could see a scenario where he struggles a bit in AA, gets shifted to the pen and moves up. His breaking ball is more consistent than Dolis', by most accounts.

[jersey cubs fan]

There's an open OF spot on the Cubs bench and with a strong spring, Guyer could break camp with the Cubs.

 

There is an open bench spot, but not necessarily strictly for an OFer. They have 4 guys who played a lot last year, and at least three of them can be passable at all three positions. Plus they have Baker who has played in the OF when needed. If they stick with only 5 bench players, they already have Fukudome/Colvin, backup catcher and Baker. Presumably they will take somebody who can pass off as a SS, like Barney, and then what they really need is a bat, and not specifically from any one position. I hope they just go with the best bat they can find, and if it's not an OF, and you end up needing another OF, then just call somebody up at a later date. Introducing a kid to the bench can be difficult, especially in a 5th OF spot where he will get very little playing time.

[davell]

I think Guyer could wind up being our last bench guy coming out of ST. I don't think we'll see Brett until an injury forces him to come up. He needs as many at bats as he can get. I actually see Carpenter as the surprise guy that makes the roster out of ST myself.

[CubsWin]

I think Guyer could wind up being our last bench guy coming out of ST. I don't think we'll see Brett until an injury forces him to come up. He needs as many at bats as he can get. I actually see Carpenter as the surprise guy that makes the roster out of ST myself.

Yeah, that's what I'm seeing as well. Jackson needs more time and I think he will get it, likely at AAA. Guyer would have to have a strong spring, but if he does, he would likely be that bat that goony was referring to. I could easily see him starting at AAA as well, though.

[jersey cubs fan]

I think Guyer could wind up being our last bench guy coming out of ST. I don't think we'll see Brett until an injury forces him to come up. He needs as many at bats as he can get. I actually see Carpenter as the surprise guy that makes the roster out of ST myself.

Yeah, that's what I'm seeing as well. Jackson needs more time and I think he will get it, likely at AAA. Guyer would have to have a strong spring, but if he does, he would likely be that bat that goony was referring to. I could easily see him starting at AAA as well, though.

 

Colvin got the gig because he was ridiculous in spring, and he was the 4th OF. Nady was there but still rehabbing on the fly, so they could more or less guarantee Colvin plenty of playing time. He PH in game 1 and started games 3 and 4. He had 45 AB in April. With the same 4 OF still on the team, it's going to be extremely difficult to get a guy like Guyer into the rotation with regularity. If he was out of options or something maybe they'd try and make it work. But he's a guy with 400+ fewer minor league AB than Colvin had, with 1300. I don't see how they could try it.

[CubsWin]

I think Guyer could wind up being our last bench guy coming out of ST. I don't think we'll see Brett until an injury forces him to come up. He needs as many at bats as he can get. I actually see Carpenter as the surprise guy that makes the roster out of ST myself.

Yeah, that's what I'm seeing as well. Jackson needs more time and I think he will get it, likely at AAA. Guyer would have to have a strong spring, but if he does, he would likely be that bat that goony was referring to. I could easily see him starting at AAA as well, though.

 

Colvin got the gig because he was ridiculous in spring, and he was the 4th OF. Nady was there but still rehabbing on the fly, so they could more or less guarantee Colvin plenty of playing time. He PH in game 1 and started games 3 and 4. He had 45 AB in April. With the same 4 OF still on the team, it's going to be extremely difficult to get a guy like Guyer into the rotation with regularity. If he was out of options or something maybe they'd try and make it work. But he's a guy with 400+ fewer minor league AB than Colvin had, with 1300. I don't see how they could try it.

I agree that there isn't a lot of room for him. I think the thing about minor league at bats is not germane to the discussion. Who cares how many at bats some has had. Colvin never put up numbers like Guyer has the last two seasons (and so far in the VWL). So he probably got more at bats because his development called for them. Castro didn't have a lot of minor league at bats either. So what?

 

I'm saying that with the way the roster stands right now, if Guyer has a strong spring, he could be that bat that you were referring to. With a back-up catcher, hopefully Chirinos, Colvin/Fukudome, Baker and Barney, they've got almost all their bases covered. Like you said, that 5th player could just be a bat. The Cubs had no better minor league bat last year than Guyer. If they go out and trade for Chris Davis or sign Thome or something, the Guyer likely starts at AAA. If they don't and Guyer rakes during ST, who else is going to fill that spot? Who would be a better choice?

[jersey cubs fan]

I agree that there isn't a lot of room for him. I think the thing about minor league at bats is not germane to the discussion. Who cares how many at bats some has had. Colvin never put up numbers like Guyer has the last two seasons (and so far in the VWL). So he probably got more at bats because his development called for them. Castro didn't have a lot of minor league at bats either. So what?

 

So what? At bats are needed for development. Nobody cares that Castro had less than 1000 AB because when he was called up he played everyday. Colvin got a nice amount of minor league AB, and when he was called up he got fairly consistent playing time and at bats. With 4 OF already crammed into a crowded rotation it is going to be next to impossible for Guyer to get ample playing time. He could use the playing time to continue his development.

 

The AB is absolutely germane to the discussion.

[CubsWin]

I agree that there isn't a lot of room for him. I think the thing about minor league at bats is not germane to the discussion. Who cares how many at bats some has had. Colvin never put up numbers like Guyer has the last two seasons (and so far in the VWL). So he probably got more at bats because his development called for them. Castro didn't have a lot of minor league at bats either. So what?

 

So what? At bats are needed for development. Nobody cares that Castro had less than 1000 AB because when he was called up he played everyday. Colvin got a nice amount of minor league AB, and when he was called up he got fairly consistent playing time and at bats. With 4 OF already crammed into a crowded rotation it is going to be next to impossible for Guyer to get ample playing time. He could use the playing time to continue his development.

 

The AB is absolutely germane to the discussion.

Okay.

 

So your concern is that Guyer won't get enough playing time if he's called up. I totally get that. There most certainly is a benefit to being on the bench and in the clubhouse and seeing how it is done on the major league level. But I agree, if he doesn't get a decent amount of playing time, he should be in AAA. I guess a lot of that depends on how he performs relative to the other OFers. At least under Piniella, performance dictated playing time for the most part. I'm not sure how Quade will do it. You seem to be making the assumption that because Colvin and Fukudome are on the roster, Guyer will be buried. I say that all depends on how they perform. Was Colvin's production last season so good that he has earned his playing time regardless of how he is doing? I don't think he's that established in the league, do you?

 

But the number of AB or IP that a player has at the minor league level clearly says little about whether he is ready for the big leagues. How many innings pitched did Prior have before he was called up? 51. Was he ready or did they rush him? Come on, Goony. Some players take longer to develop or are less advanced or less gifted than others. Are you seriously debating this point?

[CubsWin]

Brandon Guyer - focused only on baseball at UVA.

Thanks for that. I went backed and checked my research and that is accurate. The article I read was incorrect. He played at UVA for three years and got better every year. Kinda like he has with the Cubs...

[Guest]

There are a ton of options on the free agent market that are better suited for end of the bench duty. No reason to slow the development of a rising prospect.

 

Now if someone gets injured or maybe Colvin needs some time in AAA to re-acclimate himself to major league caliber baseball after his scary injury, sure, give Guyer a look.

[Cubswin11]

Does Guyer bat left or right handed?

[Guest]

Does Guyer bat left or right handed?

 

He bats righty.

[Cubswin11]

Does Guyer bat left or right handed?

 

He bats righty.

I would think that helps his chances of making the team. If we do carry 5 OF, it would make more sense if the 5th was RH.

[craig]

Guyer is a clear candidate for 5th outfielder as is. I doubt he'd get very much action, so short of an injury I'd prefer that he plan in Iowa than be 25th man in Wrigley April.

 

Right now his pedigree is basically a great half season in AA. But none of us know if he can really sustain that. Big question mark. If he goes as 25th man and is hitting .245 in 65 AB by end of July, he won't have proven he's anything serious, he won't have any trade value, and he'll still be the big question mark that he is now. Nobody will trade anything serious for that, nor will we possibly entrust a starting job to him or anything like that.

 

I'd prefer he was back at Iowa. If he hits .275 with modest OBP and few HR's, we'll know he's not qualified for any significant role. But if he bounces back from his big year last summer by hitting .320 with HR's and a .900+ OPS, that will reinforce that he's serious, that it wasn't a hot fluke, and that he could be considered for a serious 4th-OF role or starter; and that if somebody wanted him in trade they should offer something meaningful.

 

But if one of our front four OFers is injured, then Guyer would be able to show whether he was or wasn't ready in the majors. I don't want any injuries, but they aren't uncommon so that might provide opening for him to get more meaningful AB and allow more meaningful evaluation.

 

Maybe Hendry is set with roster, but it's still possible that he'll deal Fuku to clear moneys to pay somebody else. A fuku trade would obviously change the landscape for Guyer's chances.

[javy knows my name]

How is Guyer's D and where does he typically play?

[CubColtPacer]

How is Guyer's D and where does he typically play?

 

Think of a little better Colvin out there. Can play center if needed but is primarily a corner outfielder with pretty good range and a pretty good arm out there.

[Sammy Sofa]

How is Guyer's D and where does he typically play?

 

Think of a little better Colvin out there.

 

I do every time I see Colvin's name.

 

*Sigh*

[CubsWin]

Guyer is a clear candidate for 5th outfielder as is. I doubt he'd get very much action, so short of an injury I'd prefer that he plan in Iowa than be 25th man in Wrigley April.

 

Right now his pedigree is basically a great half season in AA. But none of us know if he can really sustain that. Big question mark. If he goes as 25th man and is hitting .245 in 65 AB by end of July, he won't have proven he's anything serious, he won't have any trade value, and he'll still be the big question mark that he is now. Nobody will trade anything serious for that, nor will we possibly entrust a starting job to him or anything like that.

 

I'd prefer he was back at Iowa. If he hits .275 with modest OBP and few HR's, we'll know he's not qualified for any significant role. But if he bounces back from his big year last summer by hitting .320 with HR's and a .900+ OPS, that will reinforce that he's serious, that it wasn't a hot fluke, and that he could be considered for a serious 4th-OF role or starter; and that if somebody wanted him in trade they should offer something meaningful.

 

But if one of our front four OFers is injured, then Guyer would be able to show whether he was or wasn't ready in the majors. I don't want any injuries, but they aren't uncommon so that might provide opening for him to get more meaningful AB and allow more meaningful evaluation.

 

Maybe Hendry is set with roster, but it's still possible that he'll deal Fuku to clear moneys to pay somebody else. A fuku trade would obviously change the landscape for Guyer's chances.

I agree that if he isn't getting decent playing time, it would be best for Guyer to be in AAA.

 

But I disagree with your characterization that his pedigree is basically a great half season in AA. One, he started out great in April hitting .283/.427/.467 and was a perfect 8 for 8 on the base paths. Then he got injured on April 28th, was out until May 10th, aggravated the injury the next day and was out until May 29th when he went 0-for-5 with 3Ks in his first game back. He struggled in June while getting his stroke back, basically going through a second spring training, but from June 30th on, the guy was a world beater. Consistently. Like he was in April before the injury. Two, Guyer put up excellent numbers in '09 in Daytona going .347/.407/.453 in 305 plate appearances. He's been performing at a high level a lot longer than just the 2nd half of last season. When you account for injuries, rehab, and natural adjustment periods after making the jump from Low-A Peoria to AA, he's been very good over long stretches each of the past two seasons.