College Football - Week 7 (Oct. 16th)

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In reality, I think some of the WMU allotment came back. But living up here an hour from K-zoo, there are several Western Michigan undergrads eager to have a reason to pay to go see the ND game day experience. I don't think they'll really outnumber ND fans.

 

Swarbrick had trouble nailing down the last 2 opponents in this year's schedule, which turned out to be W Michigan and Tulsa, because White had this 7-4-1 thing implemented for this year before he got fired. I'm not wild about playing 2 buy games like WMU and Tulsa in the same season. Future schedules look to be moving back to 6-5-1 or 6-4-2, which tends to result in much better opponents (like Miami, Texas, and Oklahoma).

 

I think a lot of schools had trouble getting their 12th game though, multiple Big 10 schools have wound up playing at MAC schools because everyone was scrambling at once to fill their schedules with only a couple dates to choose from.

 

sure. and that's why you had UConn last year, USF next year, Wake the following year (which isn't part of the home and home series in 2011 and 2015), and maybe Temple in 2013. And it's why you'd expect to play either Tulsa or WMU this year. But when you move from 1 home game with no return to the opponent's place to 2 such home games, you end up scheduling both Tulsa and WMU.

 

Hey, I don't want to play against Navy and 11 of the Top 25 every year. But I don't want to wake up one day and be like Michigan or Ohio State and play a bunch of close no-name or directional schools. I think Swarbrick has done a great job of scheduling, but this year was unavoidable.

[Derwood]

Mock BCS has Boise St. and Oregon at 1/2

[CubColtPacer]

Mock BCS has Boise St. and Oregon at 1/2

 

With TCU 3rd (although one computer ranking is still not out). But of course Boise and TCU should slowly fade in the computer rankings as the season goes along. It's going to be an interesting season.

[shnsajax]

Mock BCS has Boise St. and Oregon at 1/2

 

With TCU 3rd (although one computer ranking is still not out). But of course Boise and TCU should slowly fade in the computer rankings as the season goes along. It's going to be an interesting season.

 

If they both go undefeated again and get stuck playing each other again in the BCS I am going to be pissed.

[javy knows my name]

Sagarin's top 25 (first time this year all teams are connected):

College Football 2010 through games of October 9 Saturday            
HOME ADVANTAGE=  3.91           RATING    W   L  SCHEDL(RANK) VS top 10 | VS top 30 |  ELO_CHESS   
  1  Oregon               A  =  92.22    6   0   70.33(  39)    1   0  |    2   0  |   91.17    4 
  2  TCU                  A  =  90.79    6   0   68.85(  56)    0   0  |    1   0  |   91.64    2 
  3  Boise State          A  =  90.71    5   0   72.15(  28)    0   0  |    2   0  |   93.33    1 
  4  Stanford             A  =  90.39    5   1   74.69(  14)    0   1  |    1   1  |   88.94    7 
  5  LSU                  A  =  87.56    6   0   73.56(  20)    0   0  |    2   0  |   88.09    8 
  6  Nebraska             A  =  87.50    5   0   67.01(  76)    0   0  |    0   0  |   87.60   10 
  7  Arizona              A  =  87.30    4   1   74.63(  16)    1   0  |    2   1  |   87.24   11 
  8  Alabama              A  =  87.13    5   1   72.25(  27)    0   0  |    2   1  |   83.37   17 
  9  California           A  =  86.46    3   2   75.99(  12)    0   1  |    0   2  |   83.85   16 
 10  Florida State        A  =  86.29    5   1   69.50(  45)    0   0  |    0   1  |   83.15   19 
 11  Oregon State         A  =  86.17    3   2   85.02(   1)    1   2  |    2   2  |   89.74    6 
 12  Oklahoma             A  =  85.80    5   0   74.66(  15)    1   0  |    2   0  |   91.47    3 
 13  South Carolina       A  =  85.48    4   1   72.71(  24)    1   0  |    1   1  |   84.07   15 
 14  Nevada               A  =  85.10    6   0   67.00(  78)    1   0  |    1   0  |   86.78   12 
 15  Ohio State           A  =  85.08    6   0   63.45( 117)    0   0  |    0   0  |   82.27   23 
 16  Missouri             A  =  84.92    5   0   66.53(  84)    0   0  |    0   0  |   84.41   14 
 17  Auburn               A  =  84.80    6   0   67.17(  74)    0   0  |    1   0  |   87.62    9 
 18  Michigan State       A  =  83.09    6   0   65.15(  95)    0   0  |    2   0  |   90.12    5 
 19  Virginia Tech        A  =  82.74    4   2   72.84(  23)    0   1  |    1   1  |   81.72   24 
 20  Arizona State        A  =  82.18    3   3   77.90(   6)    0   1  |    0   3  |   79.47   29 
 21  Iowa                 A  =  81.58    4   1   64.08( 111)    0   1  |    0   1  |   79.25   31 
 22  NC State             A  =  81.19    5   1   69.37(  49)    0   0  |    0   1  |   79.33   30 
 23  Utah                 A  =  80.41    5   0   61.47( 136)    0   0  |    0   0  |   78.34   34 
 24  Arkansas             A  =  80.35    4   1   68.15(  66)    0   1  |    0   1  |   76.97   39 
 25  Wisconsin            A  =  80.01    5   1   63.59( 116)    0   0  |    1   1  |   82.33   22 

The rankings on the far right are the ones submitted to the BCS (they don't factor point spread in at all, while his normal rankings do somewhat).

What is with the Pac-10 love? 2-loss Cal 8 spots in front of Auburn?!

[shnsajax]

They really love that Pac-10 SOS.

[bukie]

What is with the Pac-10 love? 2-loss Cal 8 spots in front of Auburn?!

Cal has played a much tougher schedule, and has absolutely blown out teams in every win. If you notice, the BCS version of the formula that doesn't take margin of victory into account has Auburn ahead. Margin has much higher predictive value for the future, though.

 

The Pac-10 is very likely the best BCS conference this year, with Oregon, Stanford, Cal, Arizona, Oregon State, UCLA and Arizona State all looking good early. Heck, even Washington has played a tough schedule and beat USC. Just the fact that it's a possibility USC is the 9th best team in the Pac-10 this year reflects on how good the conference is top to (near) bottom.

[fiver]

Sagarin's top 25 (first time this year all teams are connected):

College Football 2010 through games of October 9 Saturday            
HOME ADVANTAGE=  3.91           RATING    W   L  SCHEDL(RANK) VS top 10 | VS top 30 |  ELO_CHESS   
  1  Oregon               A  =  92.22    6   0   70.33(  39)    1   0  |    2   0  |   91.17    4 
  2  TCU                  A  =  90.79    6   0   68.85(  56)    0   0  |    1   0  |   91.64    2 
  3  Boise State          A  =  90.71    5   0   72.15(  28)    0   0  |    2   0  |   93.33    1 
  4  Stanford             A  =  90.39    5   1   74.69(  14)    0   1  |    1   1  |   88.94    7 
  5  LSU                  A  =  87.56    6   0   73.56(  20)    0   0  |    2   0  |   88.09    8 
  6  Nebraska             A  =  87.50    5   0   67.01(  76)    0   0  |    0   0  |   87.60   10 
  7  Arizona              A  =  87.30    4   1   74.63(  16)    1   0  |    2   1  |   87.24   11 
  8  Alabama              A  =  87.13    5   1   72.25(  27)    0   0  |    2   1  |   83.37   17 
  9  California           A  =  86.46    3   2   75.99(  12)    0   1  |    0   2  |   83.85   16 
 10  Florida State        A  =  86.29    5   1   69.50(  45)    0   0  |    0   1  |   83.15   19 
 11  Oregon State         A  =  86.17    3   2   85.02(   1)    1   2  |    2   2  |   89.74    6 
 12  Oklahoma             A  =  85.80    5   0   74.66(  15)    1   0  |    2   0  |   91.47    3 
 13  South Carolina       A  =  85.48    4   1   72.71(  24)    1   0  |    1   1  |   84.07   15 
 14  Nevada               A  =  85.10    6   0   67.00(  78)    1   0  |    1   0  |   86.78   12 
 15  Ohio State           A  =  85.08    6   0   63.45( 117)    0   0  |    0   0  |   82.27   23 
 16  Missouri             A  =  84.92    5   0   66.53(  84)    0   0  |    0   0  |   84.41   14 
 17  Auburn               A  =  84.80    6   0   67.17(  74)    0   0  |    1   0  |   87.62    9 
 18  Michigan State       A  =  83.09    6   0   65.15(  95)    0   0  |    2   0  |   90.12    5 
 19  Virginia Tech        A  =  82.74    4   2   72.84(  23)    0   1  |    1   1  |   81.72   24 
 20  Arizona State        A  =  82.18    3   3   77.90(   6)    0   1  |    0   3  |   79.47   29 
 21  Iowa                 A  =  81.58    4   1   64.08( 111)    0   1  |    0   1  |   79.25   31 
 22  NC State             A  =  81.19    5   1   69.37(  49)    0   0  |    0   1  |   79.33   30 
 23  Utah                 A  =  80.41    5   0   61.47( 136)    0   0  |    0   0  |   78.34   34 
 24  Arkansas             A  =  80.35    4   1   68.15(  66)    0   1  |    0   1  |   76.97   39 
 25  Wisconsin            A  =  80.01    5   1   63.59( 116)    0   0  |    1   1  |   82.33   22 

The rankings on the far right are the ones submitted to the BCS (they don't factor point spread in at all, while his normal rankings do somewhat).

What is with the Pac-10 love? 2-loss Cal 8 spots in front of Auburn?!

 

I was going to post something about Auburn being ranked so low in the sagarin ratings, but it's just a matter of time before they lose a game. They have a championship caliber offense, but their defense is horrible. They will lose to at least one of Arkansas, LSU, or Alabama. Even if they win all three of those games which they won't because of their secondary, then they would still have beat South Carolina again in the SEC championship game.

[dew1679666265]

Mock BCS has Boise St. and Oregon at 1/2

 

With TCU 3rd (although one computer ranking is still not out). But of course Boise and TCU should slowly fade in the computer rankings as the season goes along. It's going to be an interesting season.

 

Just keep pulling for Nevada to win out – and impressively – until they play Boise. Knocking off a top 15 team late in the year should really help Boise out.

[Guest]

Sagarin's top 25 (first time this year all teams are connected):

College Football 2010 through games of October 9 Saturday            
HOME ADVANTAGE=  3.91           RATING    W   L  SCHEDL(RANK) VS top 10 | VS top 30 |  ELO_CHESS   
  1  Oregon               A  =  92.22    6   0   70.33(  39)    1   0  |    2   0  |   91.17    4 
  2  TCU                  A  =  90.79    6   0   68.85(  56)    0   0  |    1   0  |   91.64    2 
  3  Boise State          A  =  90.71    5   0   72.15(  28)    0   0  |    2   0  |   93.33    1 
  4  Stanford             A  =  90.39    5   1   74.69(  14)    0   1  |    1   1  |   88.94    7 
  5  LSU                  A  =  87.56    6   0   73.56(  20)    0   0  |    2   0  |   88.09    8 
  6  Nebraska             A  =  87.50    5   0   67.01(  76)    0   0  |    0   0  |   87.60   10 
  7  Arizona              A  =  87.30    4   1   74.63(  16)    1   0  |    2   1  |   87.24   11 
  8  Alabama              A  =  87.13    5   1   72.25(  27)    0   0  |    2   1  |   83.37   17 
  9  California           A  =  86.46    3   2   75.99(  12)    0   1  |    0   2  |   83.85   16 
 10  Florida State        A  =  86.29    5   1   69.50(  45)    0   0  |    0   1  |   83.15   19 
 11  Oregon State         A  =  86.17    3   2   85.02(   1)    1   2  |    2   2  |   89.74    6 
 12  Oklahoma             A  =  85.80    5   0   74.66(  15)    1   0  |    2   0  |   91.47    3 
 13  South Carolina       A  =  85.48    4   1   72.71(  24)    1   0  |    1   1  |   84.07   15 
 14  Nevada               A  =  85.10    6   0   67.00(  78)    1   0  |    1   0  |   86.78   12 
 15  Ohio State           A  =  85.08    6   0   63.45( 117)    0   0  |    0   0  |   82.27   23 
 16  Missouri             A  =  84.92    5   0   66.53(  84)    0   0  |    0   0  |   84.41   14 
 17  Auburn               A  =  84.80    6   0   67.17(  74)    0   0  |    1   0  |   87.62    9 
 18  Michigan State       A  =  83.09    6   0   65.15(  95)    0   0  |    2   0  |   90.12    5 
 19  Virginia Tech        A  =  82.74    4   2   72.84(  23)    0   1  |    1   1  |   81.72   24 
 20  Arizona State        A  =  82.18    3   3   77.90(   6)    0   1  |    0   3  |   79.47   29 
 21  Iowa                 A  =  81.58    4   1   64.08( 111)    0   1  |    0   1  |   79.25   31 
 22  NC State             A  =  81.19    5   1   69.37(  49)    0   0  |    0   1  |   79.33   30 
 23  Utah                 A  =  80.41    5   0   61.47( 136)    0   0  |    0   0  |   78.34   34 
 24  Arkansas             A  =  80.35    4   1   68.15(  66)    0   1  |    0   1  |   76.97   39 
 25  Wisconsin            A  =  80.01    5   1   63.59( 116)    0   0  |    1   1  |   82.33   22 

The rankings on the far right are the ones submitted to the BCS (they don't factor point spread in at all, while his normal rankings do somewhat).

What is with the Pac-10 love? 2-loss Cal 8 spots in front of Auburn?!

 

Cal's 52-3 win over UCD has to be the difference.

[snoodmonger]

Turner Gill needs a win this weekend in the worst way. People are already getting pissed about losing, and home vs KSU is our most realistic chance of winning. We've had a bye week, too. We need to get this win.

[javy knows my name]

Hrmm or maybe you need to lose to ensure that Turner Gill will not be your coach next year

[Andy]

In reality, I think some of the WMU allotment came back. But living up here an hour from K-zoo, there are several Western Michigan undergrads eager to have a reason to pay to go see the ND game day experience. I don't think they'll really outnumber ND fans.

 

Swarbrick had trouble nailing down the last 2 opponents in this year's schedule, which turned out to be W Michigan and Tulsa, because White had this 7-4-1 thing implemented for this year before he got fired. I'm not wild about playing 2 buy games like WMU and Tulsa in the same season. Future schedules look to be moving back to 6-5-1 or 6-4-2, which tends to result in much better opponents (like Miami, Texas, and Oklahoma).

 

I think a lot of schools had trouble getting their 12th game though, multiple Big 10 schools have wound up playing at MAC schools because everyone was scrambling at once to fill their schedules with only a couple dates to choose from.

 

sure. and that's why you had UConn last year, USF next year, Wake the following year (which isn't part of the home and home series in 2011 and 2015), and maybe Temple in 2013. And it's why you'd expect to play either Tulsa or WMU this year. But when you move from 1 home game with no return to the opponent's place to 2 such home games, you end up scheduling both Tulsa and WMU.

 

Hey, I don't want to play against Navy and 11 of the Top 25 every year. But I don't want to wake up one day and be like Michigan or Ohio State and play a bunch of close no-name or directional schools. I think Swarbrick has done a great job of scheduling, but this year was unavoidable.

What of the rumors that we were scheduling TCU before that fell through and we ended up with Tulsa? Man, that would turn this stretch from what it is into a bit of a death march with Utah already waiting at the end.

 

Next year's schedule appears to be 6-5-1 with the addition of the road game at Wake. Can't tell you how much of a relief that is. The 2011 schedule contains only two non-BCS opponents, Navy and Air Force, and I'm really looking forward to it.

 

As for the WMU fans, ND has been having 'special ticket-buying opportunities' for that game off and on for months and still haven't gotten rid of them all (probably because people like me can find a pair for 67 dollars on eBay instead of 70 apiece). I don't think the Bronco fans, for whatever reason, are jumping on this game.

Edited October 11, 2010 by Andy

[snoodmonger]

Hrmm or maybe you need to lose to ensure that Turner Gill will not be your coach next year

 

Don't know how you could have come to that conclusion about him already. He might not be the right guy. Who knows.

 

But this team was 5-7 last year with one Big 12 win. And that was with the school's all-time leading passer, top 2 all-time receivers, a senior RB, and an NFL safety.

 

Not too surprising we suck.

[fiver]

What is with the Pac-10 love? 2-loss Cal 8 spots in front of Auburn?!

Cal has played a much tougher schedule, and has absolutely blown out teams in every win. If you notice, the BCS version of the formula that doesn't take margin of victory into account has Auburn ahead. Margin has much higher predictive value for the future, though.

 

The Pac-10 is very likely the best BCS conference this year, with Oregon, Stanford, Cal, Arizona, Oregon State, UCLA and Arizona State all looking good early. Heck, even Washington has played a tough schedule and beat USC. Just the fact that it's a possibility USC is the 9th best team in the Pac-10 this year reflects on how good the conference is top to (near) bottom.

 

Bukie, my head is about to explode. I think it's debatable whether Cal has played a more difficult schedule than Auburn thus far, and Cal has lost two games. Regarding the Pac-10 being the best BSC conference this year, I disagree and will speak to this during bowl season :wink:

Edited October 11, 2010 by fiver

[dew1679666265]

Bukie, my head is about to explode. I think it's debatable whether Cal has played a more difficult schedule than Auburn thus far, and Cal has lost two games. Regarding the Pac-10 being the best BSC conference this year, I've logged this in my mental Roladex and will speak to this later in the year. :wink:

 

I don't see Cal's schedule being much, if any, harder than Auburn's. UC Davis is a good 1-AA, while Colorado and UCLA are bad teams (sorry Raisin). Nevada was a blowout loss and Arizona was a "good" loss, if you will.

 

At the same time, Auburn has beaten South Carolina – as good or better than anybody on Cal's schedule. Miss State, Kentucky, Clemson aren't world beaters, however, and Auburn didn't blow them out, though I'd say all three are better than CU and UCLA. Arkansas State and UL-Monroe are little better than UC-Davis probably.

[bukie]

What is with the Pac-10 love? 2-loss Cal 8 spots in front of Auburn?!

Cal has played a much tougher schedule, and has absolutely blown out teams in every win. If you notice, the BCS version of the formula that doesn't take margin of victory into account has Auburn ahead. Margin has much higher predictive value for the future, though.

 

The Pac-10 is very likely the best BCS conference this year, with Oregon, Stanford, Cal, Arizona, Oregon State, UCLA and Arizona State all looking good early. Heck, even Washington has played a tough schedule and beat USC. Just the fact that it's a possibility USC is the 9th best team in the Pac-10 this year reflects on how good the conference is top to (near) bottom.

 

Bukie, my head is about to explode. I think it's debatable whether Cal has played a more difficult schedule than Auburn thus far, and Cal has lost two games. Regarding the Pac-10 being the best BSC conference this year, I've logged this in my mental Roladex and will speak to this later in the year. :wink:

 

It's not very debatable. UC-Davis is higher rated than either Arkansas State or Louisiana-Monroe, and Clemson is one of the worst teams in a bad ACC. Nevada and Colorado are miles better. And that's just the out of conference play. Yes, South Carolina is a good team, but Kentucky and Mississippi State aren't exactly upper-tier SEC teams this year, while UCLA and Arizona are both quality teams. So, add all that up, and you are left with:

                     SCHEDL(RANK) 
California           75.99(  12) 
Auburn               67.17(  74) 

 

Couple that with the fact that Auburn barely squeaked by Clemson, MSU and Kentucky, while Cal blew out every team they beat, and the margin-of-victory factored ratings rates Cal easily higher.

 

The BCS-style ELO ratings, which take into account only wins and losses, however, rate Auburn higher.

 

I don't have a horse in this SEC/Pac-10 power struggle, but I don't see how an objective viewer can't at least entertain the idea that the Pac-10 is stronger top to bottom this year (mostly because the bottom of the Pac-10 is so tiny).

[bukie]

Bukie, my head is about to explode. I think it's debatable whether Cal has played a more difficult schedule than Auburn thus far, and Cal has lost two games. Regarding the Pac-10 being the best BSC conference this year, I've logged this in my mental Roladex and will speak to this later in the year. :wink:

 

I don't see Cal's schedule being much, if any, harder than Auburn's. UC Davis is a good 1-AA, while Colorado and UCLA are bad teams (sorry Raisin). Nevada was a blowout loss and Arizona was a "good" loss, if you will.

 

At the same time, Auburn has beaten South Carolina – as good or better than anybody on Cal's schedule. Miss State, Kentucky, Clemson aren't world beaters, however, and Auburn didn't blow them out, though I'd say all three are better than CU and UCLA. Arkansas State and UL-Monroe are little better than UC-Davis probably.

There is no way that Clemson is a better team than CU or UCLA this year. Kentucky likely not, either. Mississippi State, sure, I'd give that one. Like I said above, it's the margin of victory that is the difference right now, and that clearly favors Cal. UC Davis is also rated higher than Arkansas State and UL-Monroe, for that matter.

[Guest]

I'm pretty down on UCLA but they're better than Clemson and Kentucky.

[dew1679666265]

There is no way that Clemson is a better team than CU or UCLA this year. Kentucky likely not, either. Mississippi State, sure, I'd give that one. Like I said above, it's the margin of victory that is the difference right now, and that clearly favors Cal. UC Davis is also rated higher than Arkansas State and UL-Monroe, for that matter.

 

I'm not that familiar with UC-Davis, so that may well be true. Wouldn't surprise me much, to be honest – those are two bad teams (Ark St and ULM). I'll give you Clemson as well, I didn't realize quite how miserable they were.

 

I don't know that CU or UCLA are that much better than Kentucky, though. UCLA has the best win (Texas) but otherwise they've been beating up on bad/mediocre teams and losing to teams they should lose to.

 

To me, though, to rank a 4-2 team ahead of a 6-0 team, the 4-2 team should have a significantly tougher schedule and I'm just not seeing that from Cal. Better, probably. Much better? I don't see it.

 

I will say the Pac-10 as a whole is probably better than the SEC this year. Unless Florida and Georgia get things on track, the only really good teams in the SEC are Alabama and maybe South Carolina and Auburn. LSU I don't count because of Les Miles' insane luck.

[dew1679666265]

I'm pretty down on UCLA but they're better than Clemson and Kentucky.

 

I didn't realize just how bad Clemson has been, so I'll give you that one for sure. Kentucky I'm not as sure about. I also don't really know how to take the Houston win since they lost 2 QBs in that game (though it was UCLA that put them out).

[bukie]

Keep in mind, also, that just 5 games have been played to this point, so each result is incredibly meaningful. Heck, between last week and this week Illinois jumped a good 30 spots in the Sagarin ratings, just by winning big at PSU.

[dew1679666265]

Keep in mind, also, that just 5 games have been played to this point, so each result is incredibly meaningful. Heck, between last week and this week Illinois jumped a good 30 spots in the Sagarin ratings, just by winning big at PSU.

 

And the margin of victory is very important at this point as well. I just really question a 6-0 team being behind a 4-2 team without a pretty significant SOS difference.

[SpongeWorthy]

UCLA is either better than Ohio State or worse than Duke on any given week.

[fiver]

so we are certain that Clemson is abysmal this year, because they've lost to three top 30 teams in consecutive weeks? They aren't good, but I don't believe Cal would blow them out....it's probably too early to tell how the conferences will stack up, and I do try to remain impartial when evaluating these type things. I still think the SEC has the most talent this year. Maybe I'm just a homer...