Fukudome not terrible??

[CUBZ99]

Colvin is costing us money by virtue of the fact that starting him in place of Fukudome (without any real gain in production) has completely tanked what was left of Fukudome's contract... so we'll have to eat the whole contract to move him. Is the better look we're getting at Colvin worth that money? Time will tell.

 

Colvin is paid less and is providing pretty damn close to equal production, but that doesn't mean starting him was the right move in the short term.

 

Disagree with you. Fuku's contract is a sunk cost. Colvin's contract in comparison is minimal. Colvin is younger, will be cheaper and is under team contract for longer than Fukudome. The team should be thinking about the future not this year.

 

Wow... what the hell were you responding to?

 

1.) I wasn't trying to say whether benching Fukudome in favor of Colvin was the right move or not, I was just laying out the financial side of the argument. So the argument regarding Colvin as younger, cheaper, etc... is responding to something I never said.

 

2.) Fukudome's contract is not a sunk cost. A sunk cost is defined when you have no ability to recover any portion of the money. Even the most enthusiastic of Fukudome haters out there have to admit that before the benching, he had some trade value. We would have had to eat some of his contract, of course. But we would not have had to eat the whole thing. Therefore, not a sunk cost.

 

3.) Playing Colvin necessitates benching Fukudome. Benching Fukudome negatively impacts his trade value. Therefore, playing Colvin over Fukudome has a cost equal to the decline of Fukudome's trade value ... in this case, certainly a few million dollars. We aren't getting increased production out of Colvin, so the only real question to ask ourselves is are we getting our money's worth by getting an extended look at Colvin + any increased trade value Colvin may accrue?

 

Hendry tried to trade Fukudome before Colvin took his job. There wasn't a taker for him at the time. In May and June (when Fukudome lost his job) Fukudome was OPS'ing .715 and .485. The team was in dire need of offense and Colvin was OPSing .1.034 and .780 in the same time period. Once Fukudome lost his job and there was no chance to get much salary relief for him, I'm guessing Hendry was more concerned about salvaging the season, than Fuku's trade value.

[Sammy Sofa]

Well, Hendry is stupid like that.

[Northside Blues]

Unfortunately having three or four guys best profiled in CF for our OF killed his trade value.

[Guest]

Trade value is really based on how valuable the guy would be to the other team, not how valuable he is for the Cubs this year. I don't understand why people think Fukudome is less valuable to other teams just because we also have Colvin.

[flyseye]

Trade value is really based on how valuable the guy would be to the other team, not how valuable he is for the Cubs this year. I don't understand why people think Fukudome is less valuable to other teams just because we also have Colvin.

 

I think if any other team placed much value in Fukudome, he would be on that team by now.

[jersey cubs fan]

Trade value is really based on how valuable the guy would be to the other team, not how valuable he is for the Cubs this year. I don't understand why people think Fukudome is less valuable to other teams just because we also have Colvin.

 

There's also the matter of how desperate a team is to trade a guy. A team that really wants to dump a guy lowers that guy's value. Other teams have to compete with each other for the player, but they also have to compete with the original team's willingness to walk away from the table.

[Soul]

Trade value is really based on how valuable the guy would be to the other team, not how valuable he is for the Cubs this year. I don't understand why people think Fukudome is less valuable to other teams just because we also have Colvin.

 

I think if any other team placed much value in Fukudome, he would be on that team by now.

 

I don't know about that. We'd probably keep him around as a backup OF if he was paid like that. Other teams would likely do the same.

 

But that contract, for that level of production...

 

 

To me the Fuku hate is simply just that he makes way too much money. It's not like he doesn't do anything good on the field.

[Guest]

Trade value is really based on how valuable the guy would be to the other team, not how valuable he is for the Cubs this year. I don't understand why people think Fukudome is less valuable to other teams just because we also have Colvin.

 

There's also the matter of how desperate a team is to trade a guy. A team that really wants to dump a guy lowers that guy's value. Other teams have to compete with each other for the player, but they also have to compete with the original team's willingness to walk away from the table.

If you're willing to pay a bench player $12M, then your willingness to walk away from the table hasn't really changed. How much Fukudome will help the other team really hasn't changed.

 

so the trade value hasn't really changed.

[jersey cubs fan]

Trade value is really based on how valuable the guy would be to the other team, not how valuable he is for the Cubs this year. I don't understand why people think Fukudome is less valuable to other teams just because we also have Colvin.

 

There's also the matter of how desperate a team is to trade a guy. A team that really wants to dump a guy lowers that guy's value. Other teams have to compete with each other for the player, but they also have to compete with the original team's willingness to walk away from the table.

If you're willing to pay a bench player $12M, then your willingness to walk away from the table hasn't really changed. How much Fukudome will help the other team really hasn't changed.

 

so the trade value hasn't really changed.

 

There's willingness to put a $12m player on the bench midseason and willingness to keep a $12m bench player on the team. Very different things. Not sure why you would assume that stays the same.

[Guest]

Trade value is really based on how valuable the guy would be to the other team, not how valuable he is for the Cubs this year. I don't understand why people think Fukudome is less valuable to other teams just because we also have Colvin.

 

There's also the matter of how desperate a team is to trade a guy. A team that really wants to dump a guy lowers that guy's value. Other teams have to compete with each other for the player, but they also have to compete with the original team's willingness to walk away from the table.

If you're willing to pay a bench player $12M, then your willingness to walk away from the table hasn't really changed. How much Fukudome will help the other team really hasn't changed.

 

so the trade value hasn't really changed.

 

There's willingness to put a $12m player on the bench midseason and willingness to keep a $12m bench player on the team. Very different things. Not sure why you would assume that stays the same.

There's also the possibility of trading Colvin instead. Or Byrd. Or moving Colvin to first base. There are a lot of choices the Cubs have that would keep Fukudome on the team. His limited playing time hasn't changed his value to another team at all. It should not have impacted his trade value much, either.

[jersey cubs fan]

There's also the possibility of trading Colvin instead. Or Byrd. Or moving Colvin to first base. There are a lot of choices the Cubs have that would keep Fukudome on the team. His limited playing time hasn't changed his value to another team at all. It should not have impacted his trade value much, either.

 

Those are theoretical possibilities, not Jim Hendry telegraphs his next move as blatantly as anybody in baseball possibilities and refuses to play coy because he doesn't want to hurt anybody's feelings.

[Benchwarmer]

There's also the possibility of trading Colvin instead. Or Byrd. Or moving Colvin to first base. There are a lot of choices the Cubs have that would keep Fukudome on the team. His limited playing time hasn't changed his value to another team at all. It should not have impacted his trade value much, either.

 

Those are theoretical possibilities, not Jim Hendry telegraphs his next move as blatantly as anybody in baseball possibilities and refuses to play coy because he doesn't want to hurt anybody's feelings.

 

Hendry continues to put himself and the Cubs into these terrible situations-longterm contracts he can't unload and players that no one wants-no matter the price. If you're Dunn's agent or any other potential FA and you understand the pressure to put a Cubs playoff team on the field in 2011, your demands shoot up. Hendry must be fired immediately so that the next GM can start rebuilding now.

[lumafia]

If Kosuke continues his current pace, he will have tremendous value during the offseason. Personally, I'd rather just keep him in RF and let him stay there all year. However, that money would go a long way towards adding pitching. He has improved every year, and if you project his numbers this year over 550 AB's, he would finish 2010 with 23 HRs, 71 RBI and almost 100 walks. His .835 OPS would rank him 8th among qualified RF's. Not only that, but he is killing lefties this year.

 

The other problem with Kosuke (the other being his contract) is that it is difficult to find him an appropriate spot in the order on this team. Ideally, you would want him in the 2-hole, but the Cubs are going to want Castro in that spot. The 5-spot is another good place for him, but there is no chance the Cubs move Soriano out of that spot. Anywhere between 6 and 8 would be fine, but he hasn't been as good lower in the order. He is not a lead-off guy, and his stats reflect that. The Cubs tried to put a square peg in a round hole by putting him in the leadoff spot. He was a middle-of-the-order type hitter in Japan, and he still is in the MLB. He is at his best with men on base, and is more comfortable somewhere between 2 and 6.

 

Kosuke could be sold to the right team as long as Hendry is willing to swallow his pride and pick up some of the contract. Teams like the Angels, Red Sox, Dodgers, Mariners and Tigers will have significant holes in their OF. With the Cubs willing to pick up some of Kosuke's contract, it would be a no-brainer for some of these teams to come get him. It's going to be a matter of how good Hendry is at selling Kosuke. If he isn't traded by next year, it simply means Hendry didn't want him traded, or that Hendry is willing to accept that he made another contract mistake and didn't want to pick up some of what is owed to Kosuke for 2011.

[jersey cubs fan]

The other problem with Kosuke (the other being his contract) is that it is difficult to find him an appropriate spot in the order on this team. Ideally, you would want him in the 2-hole, but the Cubs are going to want Castro in that spot.

 

That doesn't make it difficult to find him the right spot. He should be 2, and Castro should not. There's also no reason he can't bat leadoff.

[rawaction]

Fukudome also has the best power numbers of his career. I think he could have a really good 2011.

[JeffH]

The one good thing about the 2010 Cubs is that we have an effective four-man outfield rotation.

 

So, of course, Hendry is going to pay eight million bucks to break that up. Brilliant.

[dew1679666265]

He is not a lead-off guy, and his stats reflect that.

 

Kosuke career in leadoff spot: .243/.364/.380/.744. OPS is a little low, but mainly because he hasn't slugged at all in the leadoff spot. There's little wrong with that OBP, however, and that's the most important thing for a guy hitting leadoff.

 

What stats reflect that he shouldn't be a leadoff hitter?

[jersey cubs fan]

He is not a lead-off guy, and his stats reflect that.

 

Kosuke career in leadoff spot: .243/.364/.380/.744. OPS is a little low, but mainly because he hasn't slugged at all in the leadoff spot. There's little wrong with that OBP, however, and that's the most important thing for a guy hitting leadoff.

 

What stats reflect that he shouldn't be a leadoff hitter?

 

I would bet it's his AVG and SB.

[dew1679666265]

Trade value is really based on how valuable the guy would be to the other team, not how valuable he is for the Cubs this year. I don't understand why people think Fukudome is less valuable to other teams just because we also have Colvin.

 

It's more of an opportunity cost than anything for me. While he's an older player who had played significant professional baseball, he's still adjusting to and learning the major leagues (as his consistent improvement from his first year to this year shows) and sitting him on the bench for the past month or two has hurt the increase his trade value could have received by playing him this year. Showing a significant increase from year 1 to year 2 and then from year 2 to year 3 is significant, but his improvement will be lessened because he was stuck on the bench for an extended period of time.

 

Also, trades don't work simply on the idea that player x is valuable to a team so that team will pay what it feels is comparable for the value they're receiving. Leverage and how desperate a team is plays a big part in making a trade and the Cubs forfeited some of that leverage by showing that they value Colvin over Kosuke.

[dew1679666265]

He is not a lead-off guy, and his stats reflect that.

 

Kosuke career in leadoff spot: .243/.364/.380/.744. OPS is a little low, but mainly because he hasn't slugged at all in the leadoff spot. There's little wrong with that OBP, however, and that's the most important thing for a guy hitting leadoff.

 

What stats reflect that he shouldn't be a leadoff hitter?

 

I would bet it's his AVG and SB.

 

He's definitely not been a good basestealer his entire career. 23 SB to 20 CS is pretty awful, though it shouldn't play that big a role in determining whether or not he hits leadoff. Average shouldn't be a factor at all (I know you're not promoting either of these, by the way).

[dew1679666265]

If anything, I think Kosuke should permanently be placed in either the 1 or 2 spot in the order. Preferably the leadoff spot. It plays to his biggest strength – OBP.

[Exile on Waveland]

I, for one, really hope Fukudome is with the Cubs next year, consistently batting either first or second (at least against right handers). He's marginally improved both his batting average (.257-.259-274)* and on-base percentage (.359-.375-.379)* each year, and shown even more improvement in slugging (.379-.421-.456). He's had an above-average OPS+ the last two seasons (104, 116).

 

He is not a perfect player, but his problems do not seem terribly pertinent or persuasive reasons for the Cubs to trade him. While he's overpaid, he's also likely undervalued on the market decreasing the impetus for a trade on that account. His (power) production may not be ideal for a corner outfield, but the Cubs do not have a guaranteed replacement in tow (and first base is a far more pressing concern, surely). He is streaky -- though it would not surprise me for one of our numbers gurus to show his relative streakiness is not as pronounced as it seems -- but the Cubs have four decent to good outfielders to pick up the slack during a downturn.

 

 

 

*Those numbers would almost certainly be within the standard deviation, but, considering the current management's inclinations, surely they would be sufficient to show "improvement" and "adjustment."

[lumafia]

He is not a lead-off guy, and his stats reflect that.

 

Kosuke career in leadoff spot: .243/.364/.380/.744. OPS is a little low, but mainly because he hasn't slugged at all in the leadoff spot. There's little wrong with that OBP, however, and that's the most important thing for a guy hitting leadoff.

 

What stats reflect that he shouldn't be a leadoff hitter?

 

I would bet it's his AVG and SB.

 

I didn't say he sucked in the leadoff spot, he just can't hit as well there. He has more value lower in the order. As I said, he is ideal for the #2 spot, but the Cubs will not hit him there. He has been better in the 2, 3 and 5 spots in the order.

Edited August 30, 2010 by lumafia

[lumafia]

The other problem with Kosuke (the other being his contract) is that it is difficult to find him an appropriate spot in the order on this team. Ideally, you would want him in the 2-hole, but the Cubs are going to want Castro in that spot.

 

That doesn't make it difficult to find him the right spot. He should be 2, and Castro should not. There's also no reason he can't bat leadoff.

 

I didn't say he wouldn't be ideal at 2, I said the Cubs wouldn't put him there. Last time I checked, they didn't let me make out the lineups, and I have to base my opinions on the fact that they are going to make bad decisions.

 

Except for the fact that he hasn't been as good there as he has in other spots in the order. While his .364 OBP means he's doing a good job of not making outs, he does a better job of not making outs out of the 3, 5 and 6 spots, while slugging better.

[jersey cubs fan]

I didn't say he sucked in the leadoff spot, he just shouldn't hit as well there. He has more value lower in the order. As I said, he is ideal for the #2 spot, but the Cubs will not hit him there. He has been better in the 2, 3 and 5 spots in the order.

 

That's nonsense. Why can't he hit leadoff? There's even less of a sample to go on than the BS that people used to try and claim Soriano could only hit leadoff. His value is tied to his OBP and that's quite valuable at the top of the order.