Re: Mid-season prospect lists

[CubColtPacer]

I just have a hard time seeing how to put Vitters above Jackson. Jackson has better numbers at the same level as Vitters. He is considered much better defensively than Vitters is and their positions are comparable. His patience also is much better than Vitters.

 

Isn't one position CF and the other 3B?

 

Yes. The last couple years they haven't been too far apart on what is asked for offensively from the position. But after looking over it again 3B has always required slightly more offense so that's another point in Jackson's favor.

[jersey cubs fan]

I just have a hard time seeing how to put Vitters above Jackson. Jackson has better numbers at the same level as Vitters. He is considered much better defensively than Vitters is and their positions are comparable. His patience also is much better than Vitters.

 

Isn't one position CF and the other 3B?

 

Yes. The last couple years they haven't been too far apart on what is asked for offensively from the position. But after looking over it again 3B has always required slightly more offense so that's another point in Jackson's favor.

 

3B has been similar to 2B in recent years, but you still need to hit more at 3B than CF to be considered a positive. And if Vitters does have to move to 1B some day, he needs to hit a hell of a lot more. That and the difference in patience is fairly significant. Jackson's going to win out on OBP, and he actually has the better IsOP despite Vitters being considered a greater power threat.

[Donzo1679666396]

1. Archer

2. Vitters

3. Lee

4. B. Jackson

5. McNutt

 

Archer has put it altogether at AA with a ceiling of an Ace…Vitters’ improved walk rate is a big story this year- too bad he got hurt as he was going into his customary surge… B. Jackson’s K’s are an issue- this is why I have him lower than most.

[Guest]

1. Archer

2. Vitters

3. Lee

4. B. Jackson

5. McNutt

 

Archer has put it altogether at AA with a ceiling of an Ace…Vitters’ improved walk rate is a big story this year- too bad he got hurt as he was going into his customary surge… B. Jackson’s K’s are an issue- this is why I have him lower than most.

 

The walks are still a concern.

[Outshined_One]

With Brett Wallach in the system, I'm slotting him into my list at #14, knocking Micah Gibbs off. Good ceiling and a reasonably good performance as a 21 year old in the MWL, but control problems make me a bit leery.

 

Some random comments on my list...

 

1) I get the feeling Hak-Ju Lee is going to get a ton of love in offseason prospect lists. Hell, I could see BA naming him the Cubs' top prospect. Between his age, performance, excellent defense, and legit 80 speed, it's easy to dream on his upside. I'm inclined to agree with those people.

 

2) I really, really hope Lake is turning around and not just going through an extended hot streak. His April and May were abysmal. His defense at SS is still suspect. Still, if there's anyone in this system who has a Hanley Ramirez-like ceiling, it's Lake. Hard to keep that out of the top 10.

 

3) I had a hard time ranking Barney, Flaherty, and LeMahieu relative to one another. Barney should be a good defender at SS and is basically ML-ready, but he won't be much of a hitter. Flaherty faltered at AA and will have to move off of SS, but he's picked himself back up at Daytona and has the best bat of the three. Being 24 doesn't help, though. LeMahieu has projection and is the youngest of the three, but holy crap do I hate his swing. Yeah, he could learn how to pull the ball and his body has some power in it, but that just isn't the way I've seen him approach hitting. Plus, the IsoD sucks. I'm not a huge fan of his.

[Rob]

With Brett Wallach in the system, I'm slotting him into my list at #14, knocking Micah Gibbs off. Good ceiling and a reasonably good performance as a 21 year old in the MWL, but control problems make me a bit leery.

 

Some random comments on my list...

 

1) I get the feeling Hak-Ju Lee is going to get a ton of love in offseason prospect lists. Hell, I could see BA naming him the Cubs' top prospect. Between his age, performance, excellent defense, and legit 80 speed, it's easy to dream on his upside. I'm inclined to agree with those people.

 

2) I really, really hope Lake is turning around and not just going through an extended hot streak. His April and May were abysmal. His defense at SS is still suspect. Still, if there's anyone in this system who has a Hanley Ramirez-like ceiling, it's Lake. Hard to keep that out of the top 10.

 

3) I had a hard time ranking Barney, Flaherty, and LeMahieu relative to one another. Barney should be a good defender at SS and is basically ML-ready, but he won't be much of a hitter. Flaherty faltered at AA and will have to move off of SS, but he's picked himself back up at Daytona and has the best bat of the three. Being 24 doesn't help, though. LeMahieu has projection and is the youngest of the three, but holy crap do I hate his swing. Yeah, he could learn how to pull the ball and his body has some power in it, but that just isn't the way I've seen him approach hitting. Plus, the IsoD sucks. I'm not a huge fan of his.

 

I'm really seeing some potential from Wallach to jump up our list next season if he adds some velocity over the offseason. If that happens, he could be a pretty quick mover.

[davearm2]

1) I get the feeling Hak-Ju Lee is going to get a ton of love in offseason prospect lists. Hell, I could see BA naming him the Cubs' top prospect. Between his age, performance, excellent defense, and legit 80 speed, it's easy to dream on his upside. I'm inclined to agree with those people.

I can't shake the instinct that Lee will never hit enough to be an impact major leaguer. Fast, slick fielding, no-hit utility MIs are not that uncommon, and not that valuable.

 

2) I really, really hope Lake is turning around and not just going through an extended hot streak. His April and May were abysmal. His defense at SS is still suspect. Still, if there's anyone in this system who has a Hanley Ramirez-like ceiling, it's Lake. Hard to keep that out of the top 10.

I also can't shake the instinct that these extreme boom/bust type of prospects bust way more often than they boom.

 

It should go without saying that I home my instincts are wrong in both instances.

[Outshined_One]

1) I get the feeling Hak-Ju Lee is going to get a ton of love in offseason prospect lists. Hell, I could see BA naming him the Cubs' top prospect. Between his age, performance, excellent defense, and legit 80 speed, it's easy to dream on his upside. I'm inclined to agree with those people.

I can't shake the instinct that Lee will never hit enough to be an impact major leaguer. Fast, slick fielding, no-hit utility MIs are not that uncommon, and not that valuable.

 

2) I really, really hope Lake is turning around and not just going through an extended hot streak. His April and May were abysmal. His defense at SS is still suspect. Still, if there's anyone in this system who has a Hanley Ramirez-like ceiling, it's Lake. Hard to keep that out of the top 10.

I also can't shake the instinct that these extreme boom/bust type of prospects bust way more often than they boom.

 

It should go without saying that I home my instincts are wrong in both instances.

 

Regarding both of your responses, my preferences in prospects tends to be more in favor of ceiling over current tools, with some production thrown into the mix. Both Lake and Lee have done a good enough job at the plate to merit consideration here. However, you are correct, the odds of them reaching their respective ceilings, much less reaching the majors, are not particularly high. I'll be shocked if either of them even come close to their ceilings.

 

There are plenty of reasons for doubt, but there is also enough optimism for me to rank them where I did.

[Guest]

FYI, I've read a few times now that Lake had a mechanical problem with his swing that the Cubs have been trying to and might have fixed which would explain both the uptick in hitting and patience.

[davell]

While I don't see Lee as ever being a power hitter, I can easily turning into a high average/on base percentage guy who hits lots of doubles and has great speed......A Lee/Castro 1-2 punch at the top of the order would be very nice.......

 

 

Lake is a guy we can all dream on right now. He certainly has an extremely high ceiling. But, he's also got a very long way to go to reach it. But, if this last month is any indication, he's on the right path. Going forward though, is 3B his likely position, if he does make it to the majors? Because part of me thinks he may wind up as a corner OFer, if everything pans out with Castro/Lee/Vitters......

[StarlinOnYou]

1) Brett Jackson

 

2) Josh Vitters

 

3) Chris Archer

 

4) Trey McNutt

 

5) Jay Jackson

 

6) Hak-Ju Lee

 

7) Hayden Simpson

 

8) Junior Lake

 

9) Chris Carpenter

 

10) Reggie Golden

 

11) Dae-Eun Rhee

 

12) Matt Szczur

[Guest]

I think worrying about Lee hitting enough is a legitimate concern. However, to characterize him in the same category of "fast, good fielding guys" is selling him a little short, if only because Lee is in like the 99th percentile in both those categories. He's also real young and real raw, so I would almost expect the XBH stuff to come last.

[Little Slide Rooter]

These are basically the guys I follow. I really dont know too much about anything below Peoria and not ready to rank any 2010 picks, although I have high hopes for Golden.

 

1. Brett Jackson

2. Chris Archer

3. Josh Vitters

4. Jay Jackson

5. Trey McNutt

6. Hak Ju Lee

7. Chris Carpenter

8. Junior Lake

 

 

9. Tony Thomas

10. Casey Coleman

11. Dae Eun Rhee

12. Robinson Chirinos

13. Russ Canzler

14. Marquez Smith

15. Aaron Schafer

16. Darwin Barney

17. Brett Wallach(intrigued)

18. Tony Campana

19. Brad Snyder(old, but deserves a chance)

20. Rebel Ridling, I guess. or maybe Matt Spencer. either way/

[Rob]

My Top However Many I Feel Like:

 

1. B. Jackson

2. Lee

3. Archer

4. Lake

5. Vitters

6. McNutt

7. J. Jackson

8. Golden

9. Carpenter

10. Rhee

11. Simpson

12. Kim

13. Dolis

14. Rusin

15. Wallach

 

Full disclosure: I may have Lake ranked ahead of Vitters due to a gut feeling. But hey, it's what kept him on my top 10 even after last year's disaster.

[davearm2]

Is everyone forgetting Thomas Diamond? Or are expectations really that low for him?

 

The last few lists have gone as deep as dudes like Dolis and Campana but no Diamond.

[TruffleShuffle]

dolis is 22 years old and (i think) throws at least 95 mph... diamond is 27 and (again, i think) only touches 90.

[davearm2]

1. Brett Jackson

2. Chris Archer

3. Jay Jackson

4. Josh Vitters

5. Trey McNutt

6. Junior Lake

7. Hak Ju Lee

8. Chris Carpenter

9. Thomas Diamond

10. Casey Coleman

11. Dae Eun Rhee

12. Hayden Simpson

13. Brett Wallach

14. Reggie Golden

15-20: Chirinos, Clevinger, Canzler, Rusin, Shafer, Smith,

[Little Slide Rooter]

Is everyone forgetting Thomas Diamond? Or are expectations really that low for him?

 

The last few lists have gone as deep as dudes like Dolis and Campana but no Diamond.

 

With Diamond, its about the age factor. Much like Brad Snyder and Brian LaHair, its hard to consider them our prospects so much as other teams failed prospects for one reason or another that were giving another chance to. I know I had Snyder on that list, but he probably doesnt belong on a prospect list. Chirinos is hard to peg as well for that reaon, although hes always been in our system, but hes old as well, especially for a guy whose never sniffed AAA.

[Rob]

Is everyone forgetting Thomas Diamond? Or are expectations really that low for him?

 

The last few lists have gone as deep as dudes like Dolis and Campana but no Diamond.

 

Over the age of 25, I have a real hard time putting somebody on my list.

[Vanilla Ice]

1) Brett Jackson

2) Hak-Ju Lee

3) Chris Archer

4) Jay Jackson

5) Josh Vitters

6) Junior Lake

7) Trey McNutt

 

8) Dae Eun Rhee

9) Chris Carpenter

10) Jin-Yeong Kim

11) Brett Wallach

12) Hayden Simpson

13) Reggie Golden

 

14) Kyler Burke (still think he will rebound.. won't give up)

15) Chris Rusin

16) Brandon Guyer

17) Rafael Dolis

18) Matt Szczur

19) Thomas Diamond

20) Brooks Raley

[mike2482]

So, if Lake has the ceiling of a Hanley Ramirez type, who would you compare Lee to. From what I have read on here I would say he sounds kind of like Furcal. Is that an accurate projection?

[Rob]

So, if Lake has the ceiling of a Hanley Ramirez type, who would you compare Lee to. From what I have read on here I would say he sounds kind of like Furcal. Is that an accurate projection?

 

Jose Reyes.

[Donzo1679666396]

1. Archer

2. Vitters

3. Lee

4. B. Jackson

5. McNutt

 

Archer has put it altogether at AA with a ceiling of an Ace.

 

The walks are still a concern.

 

Well yeah, but you need to note the massive improvement… The kid has gone from a walk rate around of 6.4 in short season A in 2008 to around 3.8 in H-A/AA in 2010---Fantastic!

 

This highlights the bugaboo with the 3 top prospects- Archer, Vitters & B. Jackson… All 3 have an issue with their game that must be improved for eventual success in the majors- Archer & his control, Vitters’ walk rate & B. Jackson’s K rate. Both Archer & Vitters made significant progress with their issues. B. Jackson has not; thus-

 

1. Archer

2. Vitters

4. B. Jackson

[TruffleShuffle]

This highlights the bugaboo with the 3 top prospects- Archer, Vitters & B. Jackson… All 3 have an issue with their game that must be improved for eventual success in the majors- Archer & his control, Vitters’ walk rate & B. Jackson’s K rate. Both Archer & Vitters made significant progress with their issues. B. Jackson has not; thus-

 

you're being pretty generous in saying that vitters made significant progress - yes he walked more than last year, but his walk rate still sucks. and his K's went from 65 in 120 games last year to 63 in 91 games this year (in other words, significantly worse). plus it's not like vitters only has one weakness - his power has come and gone and he didn't show much of it this year, and his defense is still bad. overall brett jackson is easily the better player right now because he really has one hole (strikeouts), vitters has a bunch.

[EhDubya]

Everyone who says Lee is going to be an above average defensive player... doesn't he have something like 24 errors this year??